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Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Chris Archer lived up to expectations in 2014. While Archer’s performance during his rookie season was strong, there were still some questions about his ability moving forward. His 3.22 ERA was strong, but his 4.07 FIP indicated things weren’t as rosy as they appeared. On top of that, there were questions about Archer’s ability to retain a manageable walk rate. There was also the issue of Archer relying on mostly two pitches, which led to some unfavorable numbers against left-handers.

Archer put most of those concerns to bed in 2014. There was no regression due to luck. In fact, Archer’s ERA and FIP nearly matched. While his walk rate did jump slightly, it remained at an acceptable level. And lefties, well, they were hardly an issue the second time around.

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• Some different takes exist on Garrett Richards return from knee surgery. They range from opening day to the mid-May.

Garrett Richards, who underwent surgery in August for a torn tendon in his left knee, was cleared by doctors Monday to begin throwing, and his agent said the right-hander was “on track” to be ready by the 2015 season opener.
….
“I don’t think we’re going to see Garrett on opening day, but I think the prognosis of having him back somewhere in the first month to six weeks of the season looks very good,” Scioscia said at the winter meetings. “We’ll see. It’s not something we can rush.”
….
“Mike is preparing for the worst-case scenario, which is more his nature,” Dipoto said. “We understood it would be a six- to nine-month [recovery]. Mike sleeps better at night planning for it to be the latter of the two. We believe Garrett will be back if not on opening day, then at some point in the not-too-distant future.”

I bet the Angels are making plans in case Richards is not ready, Scioscia let the info out of the bag and Dipoto is doing some damage control. Right now, I would side with Scioscia and be on the conservative side.

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First you establish that Jake Arrieta and Collin McHugh both soared to new heights due to throwing their breaking balls much more than they ever had before. Then you worry about their elbows.

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It’s been a few years since Doug Fister was first able to legally drive a car, however 16 still represents a significant number for the right-hander. Last year he accrued 16 wins en route to being ranked as the 19th best starting pitcher, while torpedoing one of my Preseason Bold Predictions. Fister managed to crack the top-20 mark despite a weak 5.38 K/9, the second lowest mark seasonal average of his career, minimum 100 innings pitched.
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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Brewers enter 2014 with few question marks in the field and a strong starting rotation. However, no team has too much pitching, so there’s always a need there… and the bullpen is a potential weaknesses.

1. Taylor Jungmann, RHP: Jungmann is an underrated pitcher because he doesn’t throw as hard as he once did and because he prefers to put the ball in play (on the ground) rather than chase the “sexier” out via the whiff. With that said, the right-hander out of Texas did see a significant spike in his K-rate in 2014 (while maintaining his strong GB rate) thanks to a change in approach (including pitching more off his fastball). The strong-bodied Jungmann has a chance to be a mid-rotation workhorse for the Brewers beginning in 2015.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Reds’ left-field picture currently looks like a dog’s breakfast and I remain (perhaps in the minority) a non-believer in Billy Hamilton as an impact starter in the outfield. The infield is more or less set for Cincinnati. No team has too much pitching, so there is always a need there…

1. Jesse Winker, OF: Missed time in 2014 slowed Winker’s timetable but he still has a shot at receiving meaningful at-bats for the Reds in 2015. The club currently has a gaping hole in left field and a trade of Jay Bruce could create another hole in right field. He offers strong on-base skills and solid power potential. A left-handed hitter, he handled southpaws very well in 2014, which bodes well for playing time projections.

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We’ve already spent some time with Tanner Roark’s breakout season and it’s mostly about that two-seamer and getting strike one if you ask him. Let’s focus on those things first.

The bad news first. First strike rate isn’t super sticky year-to-year. The correlation is .479 year-to-year, meaning that this year’s first strike rate describes 23% of the variance in next year’s first strike rate. That’s as weak as the year-to-year relationship of home runs per nine innings, or a little bit less than half as strongly correlated as strikeout rate.

Roark may have been above-average in that regard for two years, but that doesn’t mean he’s necessarily going to manage the feat again next year. If you throw 70% strikes on the first pitch, maybe batters start swinging more at the first pitch and then maybe you start throwing fewer first pitch strikes. However it works, this isn’t a skill we can bank on in a 200-inning sample.

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I had Garrett Richards on more than a few teams going into the season. I enjoyed his work. I liked him for the wrong reasons, though.

You see, I thought his changeup had promise. Among young pitchers that didn’t throw their changeup much (late 2013, 25 years old, <10% change usage), Richards’ change showed up as having a good velocity differential (8.6 mph). With an excellent breaker and all that velocity, and a good history of command, I thought the changeup would really tie the room together.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell:: The club certainly has some holes in the outfield. Question marks also remain at both second and third bases.

1. Kris Bryant, 3B: Incumbent Luis Valbuena will likely open the 2015 season at the hot corner but expect Bryant to take over by the early summer time. The slugging prospect — who turns 23 in January — doesn’t really have anything left to prove in the minors (.325/.438/.661 between AA and AAA) but the Cubs will save some money on him by delaying his arrival in the Majors and it’s not clear yet if the club will even be capable of competing for a playoff spot in 2015. Bryant swings and misses a lot but he’ll most likely be a superstar in the making.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: Both the outfield and the infield are mostly set in Washington, although there could be a hole at second base with Anthony Rendon earmarked for third base and Danny Espinosa looking more like a poor man’s Ben Zobrist (of the Tampa Bay Rays).

1. Michael Taylor, OF: The Nationals patience with Taylor is about to pay off. Veteran center-fielder Denard Span could become expendable as a result of this rookie’s development; Taylor offers power, speed and above-average outfield defense — at a fraction of the cost of the veteran. If he doesn’t open the season as the Nationals’ starting center-fielder, look for Taylor, 23, to acquire a permanent role in the second half of the year.

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