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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1356 – Justin v. Paul SP Rankings Pt. 2

12/20/24

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

PAUL’S SP RANKINGS:

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1:23:30

Beat the Shift Podcast – First Pitch Arizona 2024 LIVE!

The First Pitch Arizona 2024 LIVE! episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guests: Chris Towers & Sara Sanchez

Strategy Section

  • Projections
    • Are projections getting more accurate?
    • Are projections more important to use than ever?
    • What blindspots of projections do we adjust for well?
    • Which blindspots do we still not take into account properly?
      • Park factors
    • Prospects – Should we take into account (good) playoff performances?
  • Mark Vientos
    • 2025 Ranking
  • In-Season
    • When should we pick up “hot” players off of the waiver wire?
    • When should we drop “cold” players off of our rosters?
    • FAAB Spending
      • How to distribute FAAB dollars throughout the season.
  • Stolen bases
    • Will the current stolen base landscape / levels continue in 2025?
  • Elly De La Cruz
    • Many of us took the “L” on not drafting him in 2024. Was this the right process to pass on him?
    • Was 2024 his ceiling?
    • What kind of regression will he exhibit in 2025?
    • Where should we draft him in 2025 drafts?
  • Agree or disagree
    • Luis Arraez will win another batting title in his career.
    • Shohei Ohtani won’t be able to replicate his projdction in 2024.
      • Will pitching hurt his offensive production?
    • Juan Soto will get at least $700m in free agency.

2025 First Round

  • Who is a player that will be drafted in the first round of 2025 that is overvalued?
  • Who is a player that will not be drafted in the first round of 2025 that should be?

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1:17:49

2024 Season Recap: Tout Wars 15-Team OBP Auction (3rd Place)

So, yeah: I came 3rd place. That’s cool! I didn’t win, so it’s not that cool, but it still feels good. In our league there are a lot of sharp folks whom I respect. Given the sheer number of leagues in Tout Wars now it’s easy to accuse the talent pool of being diluted. It’s also easy to defend it as being not diluted, seeing as I directly participate and thus have an incentive to save face, but nevertheless. It’s a solid crop of talent.

Additionally, I am categorically bad at 15-team leagues (thus, it feels good to do moderately well at something you’re bad at). For 15-teamers you must have that encyclopedic knowledge of the player pool. It is imperative to minimize mistakes because they cannot be rectified as easily through waivers. You know what it takes to develop that encyclopedic knowledge? Time. You know who doesn’t have time? Parents of toddlers. Or people with full-time jobs outside of fantasy baseball. More than half my opponents do fantasy baseball full-time! How can I possibly compete?

Rather than make excuses, I wanted to prove to myself I, indeed, could compete. Read the rest of this entry »


Biggest Changes in Projections

A month into the season, I start to feel itchy. Those slow starts are now harder to write off. Those impressive early numbers feel less early. And I start to look for data I can aggressively act on. One of the best places to look is where projections have changed. Humans can be easily fooled by random variance that looks like a pattern. Computers are better at finding the signal amongst the noise.

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Roto Riteup: September 18, 2023

Say it ain’t so – Bar-to-NO-OOOOOO!

On the Agenda:

  1. News and Notes
  2. Bumps and Bruises
  3. Streaming Pitchers

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Roto Riteup: July 24, 2023

Save your weak “Hall of Very Good” takes that only tell me you weren’t paying close enough attention for long enough – he’s 100% deserving:

On the Agenda:

  1. News and Notes
  2. Bumps and Bruises
  3. Comeback Trails
  4. Streaming Pitchers

News and Notes

Adam Wainwright (old-man arm) will return to the St. Louis rotation for a two-start week, first going to Arizona tonight before returning home for a tilt against the Cubs. In his three starts before hitting the IL, Wainwright posted a 19.13 ERA after allowing a total of 17 ER in 8 IP. IE. Don’t you dare try hit a seven by rolling with Waino because he’s getting two starts.

Alex Verdugo had a date with Mr. Pine on Sunday due to the monster slump he’s been as of late, slashing just .127/.222/.255 in July, with a .218 wOBA and 27 wRC+. Adam Duvall got the start in right field in his place but this is just a mental break and we should expect Verdugo back in the lineup for Boston’s series against the Braves starting on Tuesday.

Jon Gray took an 112 mph heater off his shin last week but will still make his scheduled start against the Astros tonight. Gray has only posted a 20% K% but has a 3.31 ERA (4.47 FIP) and 1.19 WHIP over 18 starts and 103 IP, collecting six wins along the way.

Nathan Eovaldi is coming off picking up a win against the Rays, going six scoreless innings, but will have his next start skipped. Eovaldi’s strikeout rate has plummeted lately, with his walk-rate going the opposite way, as he’s run just a 16% K% and 14% BB% over his last four starts after posting a 25% K% and 5% BB% in his first 15 starts.

Don’t worry – I’m sure this has nothing to do with it:

Bumps and Bruises

J.D. Martinez (hamstring) was a late scratch on Sunday and manager Dave Roberts says he’ll also be held out on Monday. But considering the Dodgers didn’t even deem this worth an MRI, a return on Tuesday seems likely.

Lars Nootbaar left Sunday’s gam e in the seventh inning with a sore right heel. Consider him day-to-day.

Gleyber Torres went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run on Sunday but was removed late due to hip tightness. Consider him day-to-day but the issue doesn’t seem too serious and Torres will get an extra day of rest with the Yankees having Monday off.

Comeback Trails

Max Fried (forearm) will need another rehab assignment on Wednesday before rejoining the Braves rotation. After going scoreless in his first two rehab starts, Fried got knocked around in his most recent one at Triple-A, allowing three runs in 3.1 IP on six hits and two home runs. If he stays on track, this schedule will line up Fried to face the Angels at home next Tuesday – Los Angeles is fifth in wRC+ and sixth in wOBA vs LHP but with a bottom-10 K%.

Aaron Judge (toe) had two simulated at-bats on Sunday and manager Aaron Boone said he’s scheduled to take more coming up as he moves toward full batting practice. The toe has been good enough for him to also run the bases but the Yankees remain mum on what his actual timetable is, as well as whether or not he’ll need a rehab assignment.

Clayton Kershaw went from having a scheduled simulated game on Monday, to it turning into bullpen, before getting completely pushed out of it. But don’t worry! Manager Dave Roberts says nothing to see here because Kershaw hasn’t suffered a setback. Which we should, of course, totally take at face value. Baa-ha-ha; baa-ha, ha-ha.

Charlie Blackmon (fractured hand) took dry swings on Sunday but we won’t have a clear timetable until he’s able to take real batting practice. A best-case ballpark seems to take us at least a week into August until he makes his return.

Andrew Vaughn (foot) hasn’t played since July 18 and while the White Sox remain hopeful he’ll be able to return to the lineup on Tuesday, they also won’t rule out the possibility he’ll need an IL stint. Keep your lineup heads on a swivel.

Streaming Pitchers

Streaming Pitcher For Today: Patrick Corbin, WSN vs COL – I know, I know; it’s Patrick Corbin, he of the 4.89 ERA (4.88 FIP) and 1.54 WHIP, as well as a contract that should come wrapped in a ski mask. But those numbers also show how much of a man of extremes he’s been, with his starts consisting of a mix of blowups and gems, with a healthy dose of mediocrity. In Corbin’s 20 starts, he’s allowed six or more runs four times and two or fewer runs nine times. Colorado has managed to win five of eight games since the All-Star break but remains a mediocre offense that tends to struggle on the road.

High Risk Pitcher For Today: Graham Ashcraft, CIN @MIL – After a strong April (2.10 ERA over five starts) Ashcraft got positively lit up, with a May/June stretch that saw him post an 11.08 ERA, though his opponents (ATL, LAD, @COL) certainly didn’t do him any favors. Since getting thumped by Atlanta on June 24, Ashcraft has a 1.82 ERA over four starts and 24 IP but a 4.54 FIP doesn’t exactly scream future success. Luckily, the Brewers offense has been mostly brutal – since the start of June, Milwaukee’s .293 wOBA vs RHP is the fifth-lowest in baseball.

Streaming Pitcher For Tomorrow: Ken Waldichuk @SFG? Rich Hill @SDP? No thank you and no streams for you!


Roto Riteup: June 22, 2023

I’m not kidding – I’ll never tire of ridiculous Shohei Ohtani-nish things:

On the Agenda

  1. News and Notes
  2. Bumps and Bruises
  3. Streaming Pitchers

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Roto Riteup: June 8, 2023

Big Wiemer double dong – now with a mullet!

On the Agenda

  1. News and Notes
  2. Bumps and Bruises
  3. Streaming Pitchers

News and Notes

Two games were postponed yesterday due to the poor air quality from the smoke generated by the Canadian wildfires. Both Detroit at Philadelphia and the White Sox at the Yankees will instead be played today, the latter as part of a doubleheader.

Aaron Judge (toe) was officially placed on the IL. He received an injection and is eligible to return on June 14 but a more concrete timeline won’t be known until late this weekend once they see how he responds to the treatment.

Pete Fairbanks is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment on Friday and it appears likely he could be activated from the IL when first eligible on Monday. During this most recent absence, Jason Adam allowed one run in six innings, picking up three more saves.

Carlos Rodón threw to live hitters on Wednesday and will have another session soon. If all continues well, a return before July is possible. AKA, it’s officially stash season if you haven’t done so already.

Roansy Contreras had his doors blown off by Oakland in the first inning, allowing seven runs and retiring just one batter before being mercifully pulled. In case you were wondering, that’s good for a 189.00 ERA and 24.00 WHIP. Manager Derek Shelton was utterly unimpressed with the performance and said they had yet to decide whether Contreras would make his next start. If so, it will be next Wednesday on the road against the Cubs.

Luis defeated Ramón in the first ever Urías Bowl, but the real stars of Milwaukee’s 10-2 win over Baltimore were Corbin Burnes and Joey Wiemer. Burnes pitched eight shutout innings, allowing just two hits while striking out nine, and Wiemer went 4-for-4 with the aforementioned double dong, along with 5 RBI. Wiemer is on a nice little eight-game hit streak, made double-nice by it having been preceded by one of his worst stretches of the season, in which he went just 3-for-30 with 11 K.

Gunnar Henderson returned to the lineup after missing the previous two games with back discomfort, going 1-for-3. While his back was healthy enough to play, it is still yet unknown whether his performance vs LHP is still suffering from being an absolute calamity.

The ghost of Noah Syndergaard was again dragged around (3 IP, 6 ER) but will now live on forever as the answer to the question, “Who had a baseball murdered by Elly De La Cruz for the first home run of his career?

TJ Friedl (hamstring) took batting practice on Wednesday and with no further issues is expected to be activated when first eligible on Saturday.

Brandon Lowe has a herniated disc and won’t take part in any baseball activities for two to three weeks before being reevaluated. IE. Returning around the All-Star Break seems a likely best-case scenario. That’s me saying boo not boo-urns.

Load management comes to MLB – Anthony Rendon was pulled in the eighth inning as part of the Angels plan going forward for keeping him healthy. I’m sure it will totally work.

Willy Adames (concussion) made his return to the Milwaukee lineup last night, going 2-for-5 with a solo home run. Rookie Andruw Monasterio performed admirably in his absence, slashing .320/.393/.520 over 28 PA, with 1 HR, two doubles, and 1 SB but will likely return to Triple-A. Nope! Monasterio stays up and Brice Turang was optioned to Triple-A after slashing .198/.247/.297 since the start of May.

Danny Jansen (groin) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment this weekend and could return to the team by early next week. Jansen has 6 HR and 26 RBI but also a .207 AVG and .273 OBP…And is still more valuable than Alejandro Kirk.

With Hunter Renfroe hitting the paternity list, Jo Adell was recalled from Triple-A. Adell is slashing .278/.365/.593 over 242 PA at Triple-A this season, with 18 HR and 4 SB but is still striking out at a nearly 30% clip, with a 14% SwStr%. He’ll likely last only as long as Renfroe is gone.

Justin Steele (strained forearm) is likely to return from the IL when first eligible on June 17 in a start against the Orioles, according to manager David Ross.

After a good report from his foot specialist, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is set to rejoin the Marlins on their current road trip and can begin baseball activities. If all goes well, a rehab assignment could be in the near(ish) future.

Bumps and Bruises

Pete Alonso left after taking a 96 mph four-seam from Charlie Morton off his left wrist in a loss to Atlanta. Mets fans were able to exhale, though, as the initial X-rays were negative. Consider him day-to-day.

Edward Cabrera exited after five innings due to a blister, after allowing one run over five innings and striking out four batters in what was eventually a 6-1 win over Kansas City. His next start isn’t scheduled until Tuesday (@SEA) but we’ll have to wait for an update from the team.

Jake Fraley was scratched Wednesday with a bruised wrist after getting hit with a pitch on Tuesday. Consider him day-to-day.

Streaming Pitcher

Streamer for Today: None – It’s a short-slate Thursday and there aren’t a whole lot of options to be found on most wires, let alone good ones. Chase Anderson at Coors, Tyler Holton, and Matt Dermody; oh my!

High Risk: Again, not really. When Colin Rea vs BAL seems like the best option, maybe today is not the day you try to do any streaming.


Roto Riteup: May 30, 2023

What’s Australian for “badass” because Russell Crowe isn’t the only one fightin’ ’round the world:

On the Agenda:

  1. Bumps and Bruises
  2. News and Notes
  3. Streaming Pitchers

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Roto Riteup: May 25, 2023

Jhoan Duran hit 104.6 mph on Wednesday – NSFW warning:

On the Agenda:

  1. News and Notes
  2. Bumps and Bruises
  3. Streaming Pitchers

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