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Deep League Waiver Wire: April 4th

Jack Cust | 2% Owned (Y!) | 0.4% Owned (ESPN)
Be forewarned ESPN owners: Jack Cust is not outfield eligible. But if you’re like me and play more on the Yahoo! side of things, Cust could be a nice addition if things go right for him. We all know by now that Cust is much more valuable in OBP leagues, but if your team can stomach a relatively low batting average, you don’t have much to worry about. Cust has seemingly always had playing time questions surrounding him, but since the Mariners don’t have much in the way of a suitable platoon player, Cust should be an everyday player. Add him if you’re looking for some extra pop and decent RBIs.

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Waiver Wire: Borbon and Tillman

Now that the fantasy baseball season has finally arrived, it’s time to start looking at some players that may have been overlooked in drafts. While the season is less than a week old, and there aren’t any performances we can fully trust, it’s risky to fully commit to these types of players. That said, Julio Borbon and Chris Tillman are two players that aren’t owned in many leagues that could provide significant value going forward.
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Bring Out Your Dead: Edwin Encarnacion and Chipper Jones

Opening day always seems like it’s full of surprises.

We had just hours to absorb the news that Edwin Encarnacion went from waiver candidate/fantasy obscurity to starting third baseman for the Toronto Blue Jays and while I was fully expecting Chipper Jones to break his (insert body part here) on his first on-deck circle practice swing, it’s clear that the geezer doesn’t want to go on the cart just yet. Sure, Jones is perhaps not a hot commodity in dynasty leagues and Encarnacion won’t get the hearts of folks who tabulate errors or count OBP all-a-flutter. But Encarnacion and Jones, from a standard league standpoint, aren’t quite dead yet, and your fantasy squad might want to take notice.

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Scoresheet Kings Diary: Main Draft

Well, that took forever. There are pros and cons to there being 90 minutes between each pick in a fantasy draft. The pros include not having to devote one extended block of time to draft, and having more time to work out trades during it. The con is that it takes freakin’ forever. But my Scoresheet Kings draft is finally, and mercifully in the books, and I’m here to report back on my team – which I have tentatively titled “Chamber of Bomb-erce.”
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Random Thoughts on 2nd Basemen

Chase Utley

I was a huge fan of Utley coming into the 2011 season. He had all of the off season to get his thumb healed. Generally it takes around a year for a player to get back to around 100% after a lower arm injury and it was getting close to being a year later. Then he went and got a bum knee. Reports currently vary from 4 to 12 weeks for the injury to heal, so when/if he comes back is uncertain. I drafted him in way too many leagues before the injury was known, so I will be keeping a eye on his progress and let you know of any updates.

Neither of Chase’s replacements, Luis Castillo or Wilson Valdez, will breed fear into the hearts of your enemies, but may be worth picking up in some deeper or NL only leagues.

Some interesting 2B that are owned in less than 10% of all league (ESPN or Yahoo).

Reid Brignac (5% ESPN) 2B/SS eligible – Reid is barely owned, but could be a nice backup middle infielder if one of your players goes down with an injury. Also, he could be a nice infield sub if one of your other middle infielders has the day off.

Dustin Ackley (1.3% ESPN) – Dustin looks to start the year in the minors, but may be called up in late May or early June (to avoid Super 2 status). It is time now to pick him up, especially in keeper leagues and wait for him to be called up. An owner can take a chance and try to get him right before the call up, but ownership rates will begin creeping up a few weeks before then, so don’t take a chance and miss him.

2B On the Move

One trick to see how players are falling and gaining in popularity is to rank them by ADP in ESPN and then look at the percentage owned. Usually, and especially at the beginning of the season, the two normally match up perfectly. When doing the comparison with 2nd basemen, only one player is out of order and that is Omar Infante.

ESPN shows that his ownership is up 6.4% to 80%. Two reasons look to be fueling this move up. One, he is a super sub with position eligibility at 2B, 3B and OF. Second, he could be a decent source of runs as he looks to be batting 2nd for Florida just ahead of Ramirez and Stanton.


Waiver Wire: Silva Cut, Morgan Traded

Over the weekend the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals each did some house cleaning, dispelling themselves of  a couple of volatile and disgruntled players in Carlos Silva and Nyjer Morgan. The impact of these moves is minor in the world of fantasy, but will be felt nonetheless.

The Cubs released Silva on Sunday after one season with the team while still owing him $11.5 million dollars. It’s not hard to see why the Cubs chose to part ways with the pudgy starter. While his numbers weren’t awful in 113 innings last season – 4.22ERA/3.90 xFIP – Silva has a 5.87 ERA in 55 starts since he signed his big contract with the Mariners. He’s also gotten into a few dugout altercations, has never been in shape, and criticized the team publicly – and that was just this spring. There had been rumblings that the Cubs were trying to trade Silva, with the Yankees and Nationals reportedly scouting him, but no deal could be reached. Silva shouldn’t have been owned in mixed leagues, so his joblessness won’t be felt by many. The most interesting aspect of Silva’s departure is the man replacing him in the Cubs’ rotation.

Andrew Cashner has limited MLB experience, his 54.1 IP last season all being in relief. While he walked too many hitters (4.97 BB/9) in those 54 innings, his K/9 was a healthy 8.28 and ERA and xFIP of 4.80 and 4.40 were respectable for a rookie. Many publications believe Cashner’s best value would lie in being a power reliever, maybe even an eventual closer, but the contract that Carlos Marmol received this off season made that less of a reality. Instead, he’ll slide into the back of the Cubs’ rotation. The Marcel projection system has Cashner down for a 4.24 ERA and 4.25 FIP for 2011, but that is in 52 innings of relief work, so take that for what you will. He has a plus fastball that sits in the 92-94 range, a passable changeup, and a slider that gets strikeouts with the same frequency as his fastball. He’s mostly an NL only play for now, but possesses the tools and pedigree to have value in mixed league formats as well.

Unlike the Cubs, the Nationals were able to find a take for their malcontent, trading Nyjer Morgan to the Milwaukee Brewers for Cutter Dykstra and cash. Morgan had been in a battle this spring for playing time with Rick Ankiel, Jerry Hairston Jr,  Roger Bernadina, and Mike Morse among others. That battle is clearly over, and Bernadina has since been demoted. If Morgan hadn’t worn out his welcome with two suspensions last season, he certainly had this spring, telling reporters that he expected to be traded and that a change of scenery might be best for him. An extremely productive player as recently as 2009 – .307/.369 with 42 SB – he slipped a bit last season but still produced 34 steals.

If Morgan was unhappy with his playing time situation in Washington, he’s really going to hate it in Milwaukee. Carlos Gomez is the incumbent starter and has been assured by the manager and GM that the job is still his. Morgan will serve as a suitable 4th outfielder and pinch runner unless an injury occurs – effectively killing his fantasy value. Back in D.C. early signs point to Rick Ankiel and Jerry Hairston Jr sharing the centerfield duties, which isn’t encouraging for fantasy owners. For a team that is going nowhere this season it would seem like giving the younger Roger Bernadina and Mike Morse more playing time would be the smart way to go for the Nationals. You know exactly what you’re getting from Ankiel and Hairston, why not explore the talents of the younger (though Morse isn’t exactly a kid) players. The four outfielders would all be platoon players, which isn’t something fantasy owners like to see. The situation is a mess at the moment, and I’d recommend staying away until things get settled.


Working the Waiver Wire

With most drafts done, owners will now be looking to the waiver wire to replace players demoted to the minors or on the disabled list. Here are a few guidelines I like to follow when looking to pick up available players.

Be ready for waiver wire bargains.

If there ever was a time of year to actively track the players being released by owners, it is the first couple weeks of the season. Owners will be trying to get daily production from every spot on their team and will be dropping talented players that start the season with limited playing time. Also, they might quickly lose patience with a player that is struggling in his first couple dozen at bats of the season. For example, over at Rotohardball.com, an owner is looking to pick up Mike Napoli who was dropped when another owner decided Anibal Sanchez was more valuable.

Always have a player on your team you are will to part with if an opportunity arises.

At all times, a player on each team needs to be expendable. I usually have this player be an extra outfielder on my bench or a middle reliever I am using to pad my pitching rate stats.

An owner may not specifically need the available player, but the new player could definitely be used in a trade to make a positional upgrade.

Using the above example with Napoli, the owner already has Posada, so a catcher is not really needed. They could use some help in the outfield though. Packaging Napoli and one of your current outfielders to a owner needing Napoli to get a better outfielder. Once the trade is done look over the waiver wire for the player you dropped for the trade. There is a decent chance the player is still available or if not, look for another player to flip.

Have an idea of your waiver wire position, but don’t let it dictate picking up players.

Every owner should be given a waiver wire position after they have finished their draft. What this position means is that if two owners are after the same player, the person highest on the waiver wire will get the player. This time of year, positioning can be important in case someone really valuable hits the waiver wire.

I really feel that unless you are in the first waiver wire position, feel free to pick up whoever you need. Don’t be afraid to go back to the bottom of the priority list. In most instances, I have found that I make it back to the top half of the priority list in just a few days as owners scramble to upgrade their team. If you do have a high position and don’t want to give it up, wait to see if the player passes trough waivers and then try to pick him up. By using this method, you will not lose your waiver wire position and hopefully get the player. Personally, I give up the position and get the player I need.

Well, there were a few strategies I use when dealing with the waiver wire and hopefully you can improve your team with them.


2011 Player Rankings: Holds

Earlier this month we ranked relievers with a heavy emphasis on saves, since that’s their primary role on a fantasy team. Lots of leagues use holds as well, so here’s a ranking of the top fantasy options for holds going into 2011…

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RotoGraphs Chat – 3/25/11


SP/RP Qualified Pitchers: The Relievers

In fantasy baseball, there are a couple of loopholes owners can abuse and one of my favorites is SP/RP qualified pitchers. These pitchers can be used in either the starting or relief spot and, depending on your league structure, they can be quite valuable. Today, I will be looking at how to use SP/RP qualified pitchers that are going to be used as relief pitchers to start the season.

Basically, they are useful in leagues that have each of the following:

1. Allow daily transactions.
2. Have both SP and RP slots

Here is how to use them.
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