Random Thoughts on 2nd Basemen
I was a huge fan of Utley coming into the 2011 season. He had all of the off season to get his thumb healed. Generally it takes around a year for a player to get back to around 100% after a lower arm injury and it was getting close to being a year later. Then he went and got a bum knee. Reports currently vary from 4 to 12 weeks for the injury to heal, so when/if he comes back is uncertain. I drafted him in way too many leagues before the injury was known, so I will be keeping a eye on his progress and let you know of any updates.
Neither of Chase’s replacements, Luis Castillo or Wilson Valdez, will breed fear into the hearts of your enemies, but may be worth picking up in some deeper or NL only leagues.
Some interesting 2B that are owned in less than 10% of all league (ESPN or Yahoo).
Reid Brignac (5% ESPN) 2B/SS eligible – Reid is barely owned, but could be a nice backup middle infielder if one of your players goes down with an injury. Also, he could be a nice infield sub if one of your other middle infielders has the day off.
Dustin Ackley (1.3% ESPN) – Dustin looks to start the year in the minors, but may be called up in late May or early June (to avoid Super 2 status). It is time now to pick him up, especially in keeper leagues and wait for him to be called up. An owner can take a chance and try to get him right before the call up, but ownership rates will begin creeping up a few weeks before then, so don’t take a chance and miss him.
2B On the Move
One trick to see how players are falling and gaining in popularity is to rank them by ADP in ESPN and then look at the percentage owned. Usually, and especially at the beginning of the season, the two normally match up perfectly. When doing the comparison with 2nd basemen, only one player is out of order and that is Omar Infante.
ESPN shows that his ownership is up 6.4% to 80%. Two reasons look to be fueling this move up. One, he is a super sub with position eligibility at 2B, 3B and OF. Second, he could be a decent source of runs as he looks to be batting 2nd for Florida just ahead of Ramirez and Stanton.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
What’s the deal on Roberts? Is his value so low because people think he’s toast, and can’t put up any decent numbers anymore, or because people think his chance of staying healthy is about 0?
His health is a concern, but his stats aren’t that great. I ranking players by the stats they have some control over using the following formula:
2 * BA +2 * HR/PA +SB/PA
Roberts ranks 9th over overall and is between Kelly Johnson and Rickie Weeks. His inability to hit Home runs drags down his value.
Jeff, thank you very much for the reply. I appreciate you taking the time to answer.
I think Castillo was released …
Yes, yes he was.
Brignac could be decent, still young (25), and he saw his HR and BB percentages increase last season. Also has SS eligibility (at least in Yahoo leagues), which is even thinner than second base.
Ackley had a decent spring, and it seems only a matter of time before he gets the call up. Depending on what he does in the minors, he could be inserted into the middle of the M’s lineup sometime this summer. He and Smoak are the future of that offense. He’s a bit sneaky though; he only has OF eligibility in Yahoo formats, but he’ll end up with 2B.
I bought Kelly Johnson in my 5×5 + OPS league for $6.
Booya.
Ryan Raburn! Assuming he gets every day at bats in left, he makes a nice back-up for anyone that own Utley.
Morrison should bat second in FLA.
Jeff – can you go over a numerical example of your formula? What is BA?
I will go over it next week. It uses Zack Sanders valuation method, but takes out RBIs, Runs and PA and double rates HR and Avg.
BA = Batting Average
What about Brad Emaus and Will Rhymes? There’ll be value there, no?
Rhymes – May actually be useful. Upside of 0.300 and 20 SB. I would pick up in AL leagues and very deep leagues
Sorry, hit submit to early
I am actually a Brad Emaus fan, wished the Royals would have gotten him with the Rule 5 draft. I just don’t see him as an everyday starter, more of a backup. Gut feeling is that he will be over whelmed for a while and then start hitting better later. Way and see.
What are your thoughts on Weeks this year? Obviously, he’s an injury risk, but if health can he maintain or improve on 2010?
If healthy, he should produce like last year. I can’t see him doing much better though. I have a way looking at batted ball data to see if he is injured. I will need a couple of weeks to get the data.