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Chronicles of ottoneu: FanGraphs’ Experts League

It’s time to check in on the FanGraphs Experts League! You can see the full rosters in this introductory post.

Our intrepid hero is doing ‘comme ci comme ca’ as the French say – in seventh out of twelve. I’m not sure exactly which direction I should tack. Clearly, playing Ryan Raburn in my MI spot hasn’t worked out so well – perhaps it’s time to use one of my FOUR FAAB DOLLARS to drop Josh Thole (my third catcher) or David Hernandez (my J.J. Putz handcuff) and pickup a middle infielder. The problem with that idea is that, with 40-man rosters, I’m stuck looking at Jonathan Herrera and Felipe Lopez. In a twelve-teamer. Maybe it’s time for a trade.

I hope it’s not time to cash in a prospect for this problem. I still have high hopes for Travis Snider. I wonder if the commissioner (Amateur Hour) would give me his $2 Orlando Hudson or $1 Freddy Sanchez for my $3 Erik Bedard, $1 Aaron Harang, or $2 Matt LaPorta? I wonder if I would do that. With Josh Johnson, Mat Latos, Ricky Romero, Jaime Garcia and John Danks as my starting five, I could perhaps trade some pitching – perhaps I should put $1 Jarred Cosart on the block. In the meantime, I’m going to start chatting up Team Rotowire about Howie Kendrick, who has probably hit half of his yearly home run total already.

Let’s take a look at the leader right now. Earl Webb, run by BaseballHQ writer Neil FitzGerald. My first inclination is to say that he won’t stick around in first for very long, but after more inspection, I’m not sure. His veteran team is certainly propped up by some fast starts – Alex Rodriguez, Paul Konerko and Matt Kemp, in particular, have performed ‘ably’ in the early going. As those batting averages regress to career norms, he may have some uncomfortable moments. The back end of the Earl Webb rotation is also iffy – he has two of John Lackey, Scott Baker and James Shields running out there every day, and no minor league prospects that might restock him in the future.

In general, that’s the team’s weakness: It’s very old. Ben Revere, Lorenzo Cain and Carlos Carrasco might be his youngest players. Perhaps he’ll be able to sell some extra pieces for prospects. Saaaay… stopgap MI Chris Getz to me for young pitcher? He certainly won’t be hunting on the waiver wire unless someone loans him some money.

On the other hand, by being a veteran team, he doesn’t have any glaring holes (like my MI problem). His worst everyday players in the lineup are probably Austin Jackson and Vernon Wells. It gets much, much worse than that.


Deep League Position Eligibility Watch

There has been some fairly creative positioning going on over the last couple of weeks, and while all of the players mentioned here are probably more useful in deep and/or league-specific formats, you might want to keep an eye on their roles going forward. If you’re particularly thin at any given position or trying to weather an injury (or prepare for one), being a position eligibility maven can sometimes patch holes until you find a better solution.

Ty Wigginton

Ian Stewart being dinged up early, Jose Lopez generally sucking, having a fairly diverse defensive skill set, and playing in Colorado makes Wigginton’s future rather intriguing. He may add OF to his eligibility soon giving him 1b, 2b, 3b, and OF eligibility, which, given limited roster space, makes him awfully useful.

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RotoGraphs Chat – 4/15/11


AL Starting Pitchers On the Rise: Through the Lens of xFIP

This early in the season, I essentially ignore ERA. Of course, this sentiment is not much different than how I treat the statistic for most of the year, but with just a few starts under most pitchers’ belts, ERA is pretty meaningless. As usual, I focus on the underlying skills, which of course do not escape the sample size issues, but they are certainly less flukey than earned runs at this point. I sorted AL starters by xFIP so far and below are my thoughts on some of the leaders that are rising in value. For those who missed my band-studded tiers of AL starters, the original rankings could be found here.

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Chronicles of ottoneu: Platoon Catcher Strategy

Save for a few rogue ottoneu one league members, we’re all new to this game. One quirk in the game is the fact that though we have two catcher slots, we only get 162 games from those two slots combined. This is to reflect the reality shown in real baseball – all catcher situations are tandems, more or less. It’s a difficult position, and so even the hardiest, youngest catchers need days off. This does leave ottoneu managers in a difficult position – how do we best handle that position?

Let’s focus on the top 12 catchers by games played last year. They averaged 130 games played. That means you should really buy a number one catcher and then look for a $1 value to plug in for those other 32 games. That means if you are playing two catchers every game, you better watch out for your games played limit, like, now.

But how should you use those 32 games best? One thing you could do is find a backup catcher with a great platoon split. Then you could play him whenever that split is activated, and get more value out those games. Going back to 2008 in order to get a decent sample, here are some guys that have played well against lefties but might be backups in your ottoneu league:

Kelly Shoppach (.396 wOBA)
John Buck (.374 wOBA)
Carlos Ruiz (.368 wOBA)
Ryan Hanigan (.360 wOBA)
Ronny Paulino (.353 wOBA)

A natural extension of this approach might actually have you sitting your primary catcher if they aren’t great against southpaws. That would leave more at-bats for your backup in case you ended up with two strong catchers. Here are some front-line dudes that don’t play so front-line against lefties:

Matt Wieters (.275 wOBA)
Kurt Suzuki (.292 wOBA)
Miguel Montero (.328 wOBA)
Russell Martin (.333 wOBA)
Brian McCann (.333 wOBA)

There are some obvious caveats that should come to mind. First, this second list includes some young players that have not ‘proven’ that they cannot hit lefties yet. Also, a .333 wOBA is above average, and strong for a catcher, so maybe you shouldn’t sit Brian McCann, like, ever.

But there is a chance that if you have a first catcher that is a little weaker against lefties, and a backup catcher that is strong against lefties, you might find a great mix between the two. With a little daily effort, you can use platoon splits to get the best 162 games out of your roster.


NL OF: Mike Morse, Allen Craig

Let’s take a look at a couple National League outfielders that might be interesting for teams of different depths.

Michael Morse (20% owned in Yahoo, 2.8% owned in ESPN)
Maybe ESPN has fewer five-outfield leagues. Maybe Yahoo has more NL-only leagues. ESPN’s projections aren’t fabulous – a .341 OBP with 15 home runs – but you’d think that would be owned in more than 2.8% of all leagues. Let’s not get too up in arms about this, though, because Morse is making it tough for us to love him. Yes, he’s playing at first base with Adam LaRoche feeling his sore shoulder, but its unlikely he’s going to be worth much more as a corner infielder than a fifth outfielder. The thing that is most concerning about his early-season work is his strikeout rate. So far he’s struck out in a third of his at-bats after putting up a 23.9% percentage over his career. It’s in a small sample size, but given that Morse struck out in 30.1% of his 55 PAs in 2009 and 24.1% of his 293 PAs last year, and that makes up about half of his 717 career major league PAs, we shouldn’t be sure that we know his true-talent-level strikeout rate just yet.

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Deep League Waiver Wire: Chris Getz, Rick Ankiel, Felipe Lopez

Here are three players to keep your eye on in deeper leagues.

Chris Getz | 2% Owned (Y!) | 1% Owned (ESPN)
In terms of fantasy baseball, I’ve always been a Chris Getz fan-boy. I’m not exactly sure why, but a second baseman who could hit .275 with 20-plus steals is always someone to keep on your radar. Getz hasn’t yet hit .275 in his career, but g-d it I think he will. On the plus side, Getz doesn’t strike out all that often, and he does have the ability to steal bases, as he’s stolen 42 bags in his last 47 attempts. Getz has also been hitting at the top of the Royals lineup on occasion, so he could have some value in the “runs” category.

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Waiver Wire: Ryan Hanigan and Alex Avila

The catcher position is generally perceived as one of the weakest positions in fantasy baseball. If you missed out on the elite catching prospects in your draft (Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, etc), you more than likely waited to find bargains at the catcher position. Thankfully, some catchers have gotten out to hot starts this season, making your life easier if you are playing the waiver wire. Ryan Hanigan and Alex Avila fit the mold perfectly, as both have low ownership rates despite their strong starts. It’s only been one week, but let’s take a look at how these players should perform going forward.
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RotoGraphs Chat – 4/8/11


Early Movers: Position Eligibility Updates

Amidst all these early season bombs, head-scratching starts from ace pitchers, fantastic starts from what’s-their-names, platoon battles, and, ahem, an appendectomy – betwixt all the frenzy of the start of the season, we have the nuts and bolts issue of position eligibility to watch for. To try and make your life just a teensy bit easier this time of year, here are a few guys that are picking up eligibility in the very near future that might help plug a hole in your lineup.

Mike Aviles

He’s a second baseman in most formats, but is considered a second baseman and shortstop in Yahoo. However, in just about any format, he’s soon to become a third baseman, which could be a real boon for any of you stony CBS-ers and others with the corner infield slot to fill. In Yahoo, he’ll need 3 more starts or 7 more appearances at third. In ESPN, he will need 7 more appearances. In CBS he needs just 2 more games to qualify at 3b and CI.

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