Archive for Uncategorized

Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

Matt Moore. Yes, he’s not in here. We’ve been over it. He’s not a starter yet, even though he’ll be a starter later, and so he’s not in there right now. But you know what, we ranked him in our mind pieces, and we got around a 28 all together. So that puts him ahead of Shaun Marcum and Brandon Morrow on the rankings, and given some uncertainty about his innings (and performance, as much as is the case with any young player) this year, that might be around right. That said, I have no such reservations about his innings, since he managed over 180 last year and could do a full slate this year without bumping up 20%.

The rest of the list? Maybe you like Felix Hernandez more, or Zack Greinke. Or Dan Hudson gets your panties in or out of a bundle. Brandon McCarthy spoke today at the SABR analytics conference and some of you were giving him the stank eye, maybe. I loved Derek Holland last year, but now I’m the one that hates him. I hate Johan Santana more than most non-Mets fans, and I like Tim Stauffer more than most Padres fans perhaps. But maybe no-one caused more consternation than Josh Collmenter — do you believe in deception or not?

And, before you get too upset about the rankings at the bottom, know this: by the time you get down there, it’s all approximation. Treat that as a list of pitchers we like in deep leagues. It’s better than assuming that we really think that Jerome Williams is demonstrably better that Jorge De La Rosa.

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Position battles are always a hot topic this time of year. It’s highly unlikely that all 30 teams are set at a particular position this early in spring training. Rookies and veterans alike are always snatching each other’s jobs as they vie for a coveted spot on the major league roster. Today we’ll be looking at shortstop battles, where there are surprisingly few thus far.

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

Oh Dee Gordon! Expect more Dee Gordon coverage. Because that guy is a buck-twenty-five soaking wet, can’t take a walk to save his life, and might have problems getting out of a paper bag with a bat. But he’s got elite speed and plays shortstop, so he’ll be an important player worth considering from different angles. Emilio Bonifacio might not actually play the position in real life, but he can join this particular party.

The rest of the list features a lot of agreement, even if some of us like Tyler Pastornicky a little more than others. Jhonny Peralta could regress and still be pretty valuable, so it’s not surprising that he showed up in different slots on the list. Oh, and look at this — the Mets fan once again hates on the Mets guy on the rankings. Something something self-hatred. But Ruben Tejada has maybe .280/20 upside, and even if Ryan Theriot (lite) with a glove is useful for a Major League team, it might not be great for your fantasy team.

The shortstops!

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

And just because I’ve just finished up watching the Angels in Spring Training, I’ll jump to an absence on this list: Mark Trumbo. He’s not there because he’s not a third baseman yet. In the game I attended, he was the DH. Despite projecting him to be the starting third baseman for the FanGraphs Positional Rankings, I now believe the Angels will mix and match at third base — as they have done before — and that Trumbo won’t be the fulltime third baseman. The team can keep saying that they want to try him there, but if they keep running Alberto Callaspo out there in the spring, their actions speak louder. That means my projection of 461 at-bats, 24 home runs and a .243 batting average could really be dead-on. That’s a crowded team. If that more conservative projection holds true, Trumbo would be worth a little less than Lonnie Chisenhall on my list.

I don’t hate Pablo Sandoval, I just think that a couple of third-basemen will offer more well-rounded lines or more power. Ryan Roberts was held in different esteem by most of us — I felt that even with regression he’d be useful. It’s a little strange to see Daniel Murphy so close to David Freese despite the only Mets fan in the room being sour on his projections. Here’s the thing I may have factored more heavily than the others: Murphy is playing second base again, where he’s blown out his knee two straight years making the turn on double plays. My projections are not heavy on playing time.

The rest of our rankings are pretty similar. Well, we’ll see about Pedro Alvarez.
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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

The main hullabaloo will probably be about the relievers-turned-starters. There’s a bit of a damned-if-you-do damned-if-you-don’t thing going on. If you don’t rank the reliever/starters because they won’t be traditional relievers getting saves, then those pitchers will fall out of the player ranking universe for the most part. Most of them don’t have ‘starter’ eligibility. Add to that the difficulty of projecting a dominant reliever into a new role, and, well, you get a difficult situation. So that’s what happened with Matt Moore, Chris Sale, Daniel Bard, Neftali Feliz and Cory Luebke.

As for the traditional relievers, there’s a lot of agreement. Well, Zimmerman thinks the magic will run out for Mariano Rivera this year, Podhorzer hates Heath Bell, half of us thought J.J. Putz would stay healthy and half of us thought he’d crap out again, Zimmerman put Kenley Jansen right into the closer’s role while the rest of us were more cautious, and Carlos Marmol inspired some differing opinions.

The relievers!

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I’ll let you in on a secret – I actually play in one non-ottoneu league. I know, I know…crazy, right? But this did give me an insight into a format that I know many of you use, but that I have never done before: the rookie draft.

In this 12-team, 25-man roster, 13-keeper league, the only way to add prospects to your roster is via trade or a two-round rookie draft, held just prior to the annual auction. We just completed that draft and some analysis could offer insight to those of you doing similar drafts in your leagues, or even to those of you trying to figure out who to bid on in an ottoneu league.

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Seated quite comfortably on a bar stool at my favorite watering hole, I looked up at the television, and the vision was unmistakable. The green infield grass and the diamond it outlined – baseball is back and it felt like normalcy had finally returned to my life after slagging through the insufferable images of the sport where they kick things and constantly feign injury.

Yes indeed, Spring Training – everyone starts with the same number of wins and hope trumps reality. Optimism not only surrounds real-life clubs, but it also permeates us fantasy folk — and it’s almost a little impossible to try and eschew Spring results as we all look for information on who is going to help us claim our bragging rights in our respective leagues. Velocity, best shapers, worst shapers, all of this noise that we know probably doesn’t matter seeps into our consciousness despite efforts to the contrary.

Looking back at 2011, I can’t help but think I should have seen the writing on the wall. In the Spring, Mike Morse hit nine home runs and slugged .818. Asdrubal Cabrera hit .364/.400/.636. Alex Gordon hit .343/.459/.729 with six home runs and 23 RBI in just 70 at-bats. Ryan Roberts hit .509/.603/.660! On the flipside, Adam Dunn hit .224/.333/.448 with three home runs and 27 strikeouts over 67 at-bats. I should have seen it coming!

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

Introducing our revamped ranking process! In the interest of getting our rankings to you, our beloved readers, we will be pumping out the main consensus rankings as close to daily as possible for the next week and a half.

First up are the outfielders. Of particular note might be the rankings of Jason Heyward, Giancarlo Cruz Mike Stanton (and Jay Bruce!), Alex Gordon, Kendrys Morales and Marlon Byrd — for the divergence in our appraisals — as well as the rankings of Brennan Boesch, Logan Morrison, and Carl Crawford — for the convergence in our thinking.

Expect our positional correspondents to highlight players with unique ranks over the coming week. And then each of those positional experts will also be included in the next generation of our rankings. We’ll continue to update these rankings over the course of the season, as we always have.

Thanks to FantasyPros, you will be able to see our individual ranks as well as our consensus. Good luck this season.

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Everybody’s doing it! Scattered across the RotoGraphs pages are ten bold predictions by individual writers, so here are mine. Some of mine are out there, and I should get double if No. 2 hits. But I digress, here are my ten bold predictions for the 2012 season.

1. Colby Rasmus will be a top 15 outfielder. I wrote about Rasmus earlier this week, and feel strongly about his ability to bounce back. His average will never be too great, but Toronto is a great park for left-handed home runs (114 on StatCorner) and the Blue Jays finished eighth in the league in steals. A 30-20 season is possible for the 25-year-old.

2. Jayson Werth and Jason Bay both bounce back. Big contracts and lackluster results, that’s been the story for both of these NL East outfielders. I think that changes this year. Bay destroyed lefties last year, 156 wRC+, and I like him getting it together against righties this year. Werth had most of his power disappear, but he is just one year removed from a 146 wRC+ season. I think both finish with marks near 120 this year.
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Indeed, I’ve gazed deeply into my crystal ball to present to you yet another set of RotoGraphs bold predictions for 2012. I eagerly anticipate your commentary wrath.

1. Dan Haren wins 20 games. He had pretty rotten run support in 2011 and the Angels did a little something in the off-season that might affect run production. Haren had nine no decisions in which he posted a 2.90 ERA, 0.952 WHIP and an 8.0 K/9. There were 11 games in which the Angels scored two or fewer runs in and Haren won just three of them — but he posted a 2.12 ERA, 0.769 WHIP and a 7.8 K/9. Something’s gotta give, and I say he gets the better end of the wish bone in 2012.

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