Archive for Trades

Yesterday’s post about shopping trades yielded some interesting comments for what I thought was a slam dunk topic. It’s my own fault that certain aspects of the example I used were distracting from the central premise. Write better dummy.

Let’s start by restating things. More than two owners (one of which is the seller) in a 12 team league should know that Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Kris Bryant are available to be acquired in the same trade. Agree? Disagree? Poll!

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Over the weekend, we had a real doozy of a trade in the ottoneu Screw Cancer league. This is not an industry league so I’d like to start by apologizing to the teams involved in the trade. I’d usually avoid calling y’all out in an article, but this is too perfect an example.

To thoroughly bury the lede, let’s quickly talk about today’s lesson before jumping into unpacking this example. It’s one I’ve espoused before on this and half a dozen other sites. Shop your friggin’ trade offers. Especially when you’re trying to sell major assets.

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We’ve all seen our share of terrible trades. Deals that make you say “What in Ruth’s bloody balls were you thinking.” However, I’ve noticed something over the years. These so-called terrible trades often look less ridiculous in retrospect. Not “good.” Just less bad. The lesson, I suppose, is that time can salvage a disaster. Sometimes.

Earlier this week, a patron brought an ottoneu trade to my attention, saying the league was grumbling about vetoing it. He wasn’t involved. My reaction was to wonder who even won the trade. Here are the details:

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Not every decision is a winner. That’s especially true of fantasy trades. In keeper and dynasty formats, there are so many moving parts that the “winner” of a deal won’t be known for years – even if your leaguemates will often express kudos or dismay based on present impressions.

Sometimes, a good process will parlay into a bad result. And on occasion, you just think you’re using a good process when in fact you’re making a devastating mistake. Today we’ll review my three worst trades of the last 18 months. These all occurred in the 20-team industry dynasty league The Devil’s Rejects. I co-manage the team with former RotoGraphist Chad Young. However, I was the architect for all three of these deals. Chad merely signed off. They’re my responsibility.

You’ll notice the motivations behind them are very different…

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When last we met practically a year ago (ahem, December 19), we discussed trade negotiations – specifically one of my standard processes. Although I think a forthright and (semi) honest conversation is the surest approach to building a mutually beneficial swap, not everybody likes the way I conduct my trade talks. Common complaints include that I’m asking the other owner to do all the work while giving up their leverage.

To the former point, um, no. To the latter point, also no.

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Yesterday, I spent a decent chunk of my afternoon arguing with another writer on Twitter about trade etiquette. A part of me wonders why I engage in these online debates. In some ways, it’s very natural. As a teenager, arguing in an online baseball forum is how I developed the writing skills I need for my trade. Arguing online is almost a compulsion reinforced over half my life.

In other ways, have you ever stopped to wonder how weird it is to use the incredibly advanced technology of the internet to seek out and engage in an argument with a stranger? So weird, right? I don’t go around eavesdropping on people in Target, waiting for a hot take with which I disagree. Although… that sounds like a fun YouTube series.

Anyway, I digress. Today we’re going to discuss my standard process for engaging in trade negotiations. I find this is the easiest way for everybody to get what they want in a minimal amount of time. Some of you may disagree. That’s fine. I don’t understand it, but that’s fine.

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Paul Goldschmidt is off to the Midwest!

Source: Arizona Paul Goldschmidt has been traded to the St. Louis Cardinals. Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andy Young and a draft pick are headed back.

Quite a haul for Arizona.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 5, 2018

The 31-year old first baseman is being dealt for Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andy Young, and compensation pick as you can see in that Passan tweet above. Once the rumors started, this made a ton of sense to me. Goldy just feels like a Cardinals player. So much so that I wouldn’t even be surprised if they re-sign him after this season.

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We finally got our first huge move of the offseason (sorry, Mike Zunino!) as the Mariners traded James Paxton to the Yankees for Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson, and Dom Thompson-Williams. I’ll save the analysis on Swanson and Thompson-Williams for Kiley McDaniel because I can honestly say I was unaware of both prior to the deal. Here is Kiley’s piece and Jeff Sullivan’s piece, which includes analysis of both (and Jeff’s has full analysis on the deal). I’m going to focus on the fantasy impact for Paxton and Sheffield.

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Earlier this month, I highlighted a couple of pitchers who improved their results by changing their pitch mix with a new team. With the positive results, I decided to apply the logic to this upcoming class of free agents. The reason I wanted to focus on free agents because I expect a pitcher’s current teams to keep the pitcher doing what he has always done. After going over 15 pitchers, four stood out with real upside.

I’m just going to focus on the each pitcher’s 2018 pitch mix. I can’t assume they’ll develop a new pitch, so I need to work with what they showed last year. The two most common ways for a pitcher to improve is to quit throwing a horrible pitch or drop their fastball usage. These changes don’t guarantee an improvement. For now, the focus is on pitchers with upside beyond their projection.

I collected the free-agent pitchers from MLBTradeRumors and took the youngest pitchers for this investigation. I didn’t include any pitcher who has any kind of option on their contract. I’ll go back and examine them once it’s known for sure who they are or aren’t a free agent.

After going through the pitchers, I found they fit into three main groups depending on if changing their mix could help. This list is in no way a ranking of pitcher talent but I’m sure someone will bring it up in the comments. These are just pitchers who I believe can improve by adjusting their current pitch mix.

Major Improvement Candidates

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Chris Archer has finally been traded. After 26 years of trade rumors (don’t look that up, it’s accurate), he was finally moved in what ended up being a spirited deadline day despite the blizzard of action in the lead up to July 31st. The Rays moved him to Pittsburgh for Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and PTBNL. Archer has been seen as a disappointment since 2016 with a 4.10 ERA in 498 innings against the backdrop of frontline expectations.

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