After stumbling last year following his 2009 breakout season, Jason Kubel is quietly having a really strong start to 2011 — bet you didn’t realize he’s currently fifth in batting in the AL — so why, exactly, is he a potential a sell high candidate?
Alex Rios finished the 2010 season as one of the biggest fantasy bargains. Though he was nearly a 20-20 player in 2009, his average and OBP dropped to unacceptable levels, making him an afterthought in most drafts. Last season, he rewarded those patient enough to believe in a bounce-back; hitting 21 home runs and stealing 34 bases. Due to that versatility, Rios established himself as a five-category producer. Expected to produce at a similar rate this season, Rios was drafted much earlier. He “rewarded” owners by hitting just .163 through April. While Rios has improved somewhat in May, he’s still not meeting expectations. For owners looking to take advantage of slow starts, that also makes him a prime trade target.
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He entered the season as a popular regression candidate, got off to a terrible start and is currently on the Disabled List, but all of those things make Delmon Young a strong buy low candidate. There’s always risk in acquiring a player currently on the DL, but Young has experienced zero set-backs during the recovery process. Young is currently set to begin a minor-league rehab assignment on Tuesday, and could re-join the Minnesota Twins as early as next weekend. Though he still seems like a major risk, Young is one of the best buy low options in fantasy baseball right now.
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Of all the factors that go into making a successful fantasy trade, timing may be the most important. We’ve reached that point in the season where owners have experienced a month’s worth of data from their draft picks. Though we know a month’s worth of stats shouldn’t alter our expectations, it’s hard not to be frustrated with slow starters. This is where you might be able to take advantage of another owner in a trade. If you aren’t currently scouring your fantasy leagues, looking for undervalued trade-targets, you better start now. Until then, I’m here to help. Today, we’ll look at Brett Gardner as a player you should be targeting.
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Yesterday afternoon, I was asked by one of my best friends and fellow fantasy baseball owners about whether he should offer a specific trade. He owns Joakim Soria and wondered whether he should offer him for Trevor Cahill. He plays in a head-to-head league with daily transactions, so I would think closers are worth a little more than in your standard weekly transaction rotisserie league. He did currently own a whole bunch of closers, but half of them were temporary or part of a committee, so Soria represented only one of two full-time closers on his roster.
Negotiating trades in fantasy baseball can always be tough in competitive leagues. Everyone is trying to gain the upper hand and each time you ask for that better starting pitcher or that more powerful outfielder, you end up taking some kind of grief for over-valuing your own players. So why not try and get that extra boost in numbers from a low-profile spot like behind the plate? Negotiate a deal and then try to throw in your over-performing catcher for their under-performing one who you think has the potential to improve. You just might be able to squeeze some more out from their end. Looking at early season BABIP and xBABIP, here’s a look at some “throw-ins” you just might want to try out… Read the rest of this entry »
This season has been going on for 2 whole weeks and it is time to try to take advantage of some irritable owners and small sample sizes. A great way to do this is try to pick up some extremely low valued hitters that have a low BABIP value in exchange for players with high BABIP values. BABIP will be a major factor in determining a player batting average, RBIs and runs.
I’m in 6 different leagues this year and every league has a different set of rules, rosters, waiver restrictions, etc. But the one common thread that ties and binds all things fantasy here is the moronic trade offers that get thrown around at this time of year. Forget about sample size and statistical history. Apparently those mean nothing to the trade hungry vultures just waiting to swoop down and pick off the carcass of stupidity. Read the rest of this entry »
With most drafts done, owners will now be looking to the waiver wire to replace players demoted to the minors or on the disabled list. Here are a few guidelines I like to follow when looking to pick up available players.
Be ready for waiver wire bargains.
If there ever was a time of year to actively track the players being released by owners, it is the first couple weeks of the season. Owners will be trying to get daily production from every spot on their team and will be dropping talented players that start the season with limited playing time. Also, they might quickly lose patience with a player that is struggling in his first couple dozen at bats of the season. For example, over at Rotohardball.com, an owner is looking to pick up Mike Napoli who was dropped when another owner decided Anibal Sanchez was more valuable.
Always have a player on your team you are will to part with if an opportunity arises.
At all times, a player on each team needs to be expendable. I usually have this player be an extra outfielder on my bench or a middle reliever I am using to pad my pitching rate stats.
An owner may not specifically need the available player, but the new player could definitely be used in a trade to make a positional upgrade.
Using the above example with Napoli, the owner already has Posada, so a catcher is not really needed. They could use some help in the outfield though. Packaging Napoli and one of your current outfielders to a owner needing Napoli to get a better outfielder. Once the trade is done look over the waiver wire for the player you dropped for the trade. There is a decent chance the player is still available or if not, look for another player to flip.
Have an idea of your waiver wire position, but don’t let it dictate picking up players.
Every owner should be given a waiver wire position after they have finished their draft. What this position means is that if two owners are after the same player, the person highest on the waiver wire will get the player. This time of year, positioning can be important in case someone really valuable hits the waiver wire.
I really feel that unless you are in the first waiver wire position, feel free to pick up whoever you need. Don’t be afraid to go back to the bottom of the priority list. In most instances, I have found that I make it back to the top half of the priority list in just a few days as owners scramble to upgrade their team. If you do have a high position and don’t want to give it up, wait to see if the player passes trough waivers and then try to pick him up. By using this method, you will not lose your waiver wire position and hopefully get the player. Personally, I give up the position and get the player I need.
Well, there were a few strategies I use when dealing with the waiver wire and hopefully you can improve your team with them.
Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.
BUY
Francisco Liriano – He has run hot and cold this year. In his last four games, Liriano is 0-3 with a 4.68 ERA, which cost him a shot at the All-Star game. But Liriano has also enjoyed two different hot streaks this year and overall he has a sparkling 2.88 xFIP and a nice 9.88 K/9. According to the price guide over at Last Player Picked, Liriano has been worth $11 this year, far off the $30+ pace of Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez. While he may not be quite in their class, do not be afraid to pay more than $11 in value to acquire Liriano for the rest of the season.
Ricky Nolasco – One of the most volatile players in fantasy baseball the past few years, Nolasco has really disappointed owners who valued him at 2009’s 3.28 xFIP. But given his streaky nature, now might be the ideal time to take a flyer on him. In his last 30 games, Nolasco has a 27.3 HR/FB rate, easily the highest in the majors. If he can get the HR under control, Nolasco could shave a run or more off his ERA going forward. He is not the strikeout pitcher he was last year, but a 7.64 K/9 is nothing to dismiss lightly.
Kurt Suzuki – The good news this year is that Suzuki is continuing to add to his HR power. In his first full season in the majors he had a 4.2 HR/FB rate. Last year it was 8.0 and so far this year it is 11.2 percent. But injuries and a .240 BABIP have held down his overall value this year. Suzuki appears over the injured ribs that sidelined him earlier in the year. Now he just needs to have a little better luck on balls in play.
SELL
David DeJesus – One of the players rumored to be on the trading block in MLB, DeJesus should be shopped in fantasy, too. He is a good fantasy player because he contributes in all five categories. The problem is that he does not really excel in any of them. He will reach double-digits in both HR and SB, but just barely in each of them. Right now he is very valuable thanks to his .329 AVG. But that was produced with a .366 BABIP, 44 points above his lifetime mark. ZiPS sees him hitting 30 points lower the rest of the way and even that lower mark is still 9 points above his lifetime mark.
Mat Latos – He has been everything his owners have expected and more so far this season. In his last 11 games, Latos is 8-1 with a 1.60 ERA and has 74 Ks in 73.1 IP. That stretch has been fueled by a .212 BABIP and he has allowed just 2 HR in that span. Obviously he will not be able to keep that pace going for the remainder of the season. The other red flag surrounding Latos is the unknown about how much he will pitch the rest of the way. He had injury problems in the minors and earlier in the year the Padres said they would be careful with his workload in the second half. That may go out the window with the team involved in a pennant race but it is still something that fantasy owners need to concerned with in August and September.
Joel Pineiro – In his last six games, Pineiro is 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA. That hot streak has brought his ERA (3.96) in perfect alignment with both his FIP (3.95) and xFIP (3.93). So, while he was a bit unlucky early in the season, regression has hit for Pineiro. In his career, Pineiro has a 4.36 ERA, which is essentially what ZiPS projects for him the rest of the season. If you do hold him, you will want to play matchups the rest of the way. Pineiro has a 2.22 ERA at home and a 6.80 mark on the road.
HUNCH
Dexter Fowler – After not hitting the first two months of the season, Colorado sent Fowler to the minors. In Triple-A this year he put up a .340/.435/.566 line in 124 PA before being recalled by the Rockies. While Colorado already had a full outfield, which forced Seth Smith and Ryan Spillborghs to vie for time, Fowler was immediately inserted into the lineup as leadoff hitter. He has picked up right where he left off in the minors, with 10 hits in his first 24 ABs. I like Fowler to win a starting job the rest of the season and to exceed his ZiPS projection of 221 PA the rest of the way. I also think he will hit better than his .255 projection and exceed 9 SB.
