BABIP: Sell High, Buy Low Candidates
This season has been going on for 2 whole weeks and it is time to try to take advantage of some irritable owners and small sample sizes. A great way to do this is try to pick up some extremely low valued hitters that have a low BABIP value in exchange for players with high BABIP values. BABIP will be a major factor in determining a player batting average, RBIs and runs.
Currently the spread from highest (0.500 – Matt Kemp, Miguel Montero and Wilson Betemit) to the lowest (0.091 – Jorge Posada) BABIP is 0.409 (min 38 PA). Last season the difference ended up being exactly 0.200 (0.396 – 0.196). As a general rule a BABIP of .400 will be the maximum value for a season and 0.200 should be considered the minimum.
The best possible way to gain some value now is do a 2 for 3 trade. Take 2 of your players with an extremely high BABIP and trade them for 3 players with an extremely low BABIP. Here is a look at a couple players with a BABIP over 0.400 or under 0.200 that should expect a little more or less luck with balls in play.
Sub 0.200 BABIP
Ian Kinsler (0.143 BABIP currently/0.286 ZIPS projected BABIP) It is actually pretty crazy that some that has hit 4 home runs so far this season could possibly be under valued (0.209 AVG), but it Ian easily could be that case. If he was to get a few more batted balls to fall for hits, he will become even more valuable.
Ian’s increase in power output looks legit. Looking at his 2011 batted ball data (line drive, flyballs, home runs) so far, he does look to be pulling the ball more to left field and hitting it about 20 yards further.
-45 degrees in the left field foul line and +45 degrees in the right field foul line
If Ian has a few more batted balls fall for hits to go along with his power, he could be a fantasy stud this year.
Over 0.400 BABIP
Alex Gordon (0.419 BABIP currently/0.309 ZIPs projected BABIP) – Alex is finally having the type of season people expected from him when he was labeled to be Kansas City’s next George Brett. In now his 5th season the majors, he is finally breaking out (0.345 AVG), but much of this break out is driven by his BABIP. It is especially visible against left handed pitching where he has a 0.588 BABIP versus a career value of just 0.273. As a Royals fan, it has been nice to see some production from Alex, but he should regress a bit as his BABIP, especially against LHP, comes more inline with his career numbers.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
You must know Ian and Alex really well. Doesn’t sound professional, though, to use their first names on second reference.
weird.
Shut up please, Mr. bangs.
Criticizing a lack of formality in writing while posting under the name Lester Bangs. How ironic.
So you gave us one example of each? An article like this would be significantly more valuable if it included 8-10 names. Otherwise it’s just “sell the guys with a high BABIP” and “buy the guys with a low BABIP” which is pretty basic stuff.
If its so basic, maybe you should write an article that discusses 8-10 names for us.
Yeah, was expecting more than just 1 name each…
Hey Lester, shut up.
I’m guessing you meant Miguel Montero, not Jesus Montero.
No mention of Figgins? Current BABIP of .171 and xBABIP of .361. I’m not a big fan of his, especially on SEA, but I’d buy at a discount.
Interesting names.
Low BABIP
Posada – .087
Pat Burrell – .118
Dan Uggla – .128
Vernon Wells – .154
Carl Crawford – .167
Chone Figgins – .171
Will Venable – .185
Travis Snider – .188
Mark Teixeira – .192
Andrew McCutchen – .194
Pujols – .200
Wieters – .200
Ellsbury – .200
High BABIP
Colby Rasmus – .467
Yunel Escobar – .467
Joey Votto – .439
Ethier – .439
Jose Bautista – .435
Orlando Hudson – .417
Brian McCann – .412
Jose Tabata – .395
Pablo Sandoval – .394
Or course, the numbers to really use are BABIP – xBABIP. I’d love to see that article, with a list of a dozen or twenty on each side.
Name BABIP xBABIP BABIP-x
Colby Rasmus 0.467 0.290 0.177
Matt Kemp 0.513 0.353 0.160
Orlando Hudson 0.417 0.292 0.125
Seth Smith 0.355 0.239 0.116
Miguel Montero 0.483 0.368 0.115
Josh Hamilton 0.448 0.346 0.102
Jamey Carroll 0.472 0.370 0.102
Daric Barton 0.389 0.293 0.096
Aramis Ramirez 0.370 0.274 0.096
Billy Butler 0.372 0.285 0.087
Pablo Sandoval 0.394 0.308 0.086
Yunel Escobar 0.467 0.381 0.086
Nick Hundley 0.414 0.329 0.085
Denard Span 0.340 0.257 0.083
Justin Smoak 0.314 0.231 0.083
Jay Bruce 0.300 0.218 0.082
Brandon Phillips 0.390 0.310 0.080
Shane Victorino 0.372 0.293 0.079
Vladimir Guerrero 0.286 0.209 0.077
Hunter Pence 0.349 0.277 0.072
Name BABIP xBABIP BABIP-x
Colby Rasmus 0.467 0.290 0.177
Matt Kemp 0.513 0.353 0.160
Orlando Hudson 0.417 0.292 0.125
Seth Smith 0.355 0.239 0.116
Miguel Montero 0.483 0.368 0.115
Josh Hamilton 0.448 0.346 0.102
Jamey Carroll 0.472 0.370 0.102
Daric Barton 0.389 0.293 0.096
Aramis Ramirez 0.370 0.274 0.096
Billy Butler 0.372 0.285 0.087
Pablo Sandoval 0.394 0.308 0.086
Yunel Escobar 0.467 0.381 0.086
Nick Hundley 0.414 0.329 0.085
Denard Span 0.340 0.257 0.083
Justin Smoak 0.314 0.231 0.083
Jay Bruce 0.300 0.218 0.082
Brandon Phillips 0.390 0.310 0.080
Shane Victorino 0.372 0.293 0.079
Vladimir Guerrero 0.286 0.209 0.077
Hunter Pence 0.349 0.277 0.072
Name BABIP xBABIP BABIP-x
Jorge Posada 0.087 0.284 -0.197
Chone Figgins 0.171 0.361 -0.190
James Loney 0.174 0.356 -0.182
Ian Kinsler 0.132 0.306 -0.174
Elvis Andrus 0.176 0.340 -0.164
Jose Lopez 0.152 0.305 -0.153
Jason Bartlett 0.161 0.309 -0.148
Chris Johnson 0.241 0.382 -0.141
Carl Crawford 0.167 0.301 -0.134
Pat Burrell 0.118 0.250 -0.132
Tyler Colvin 0.115 0.245 -0.130
Dan Uggla 0.128 0.256 -0.128
Juan Rivera 0.133 0.258 -0.125
Will Venable 0.185 0.310 -0.125
Mark Ellis 0.250 0.371 -0.121
Will Rhymes 0.257 0.377 -0.120
Rod Barajas 0.200 0.318 -0.118
Adam LaRoche 0.229 0.347 -0.118
Ryan Ludwick 0.125 0.234 -0.109
Mike Aviles 0.179 0.288 -0.109
Sorry for the poor output. I tried editing after accidentally entering the last comment but it didn’t seem to help.
these two lists are perfect; very helpful!
Where do you find xBABIP?
At one point can BABIP be considered a valid representation?
BABIP is a valid consideration when it is roughly equal to the LD% + 0.120
There is an article on hardballtimes.com (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/if-line-drives-could-speak) from 2005 that expands on the argument that you can calculate a players expected BABIP from his LD%.
So if you look at Rasmus’ LD% (17.6%) and add .120 (or 12%), then you get a number of .296. This is what his BABIP should be at. If you compare that .296 to his current BABIP of .467, you get a difference of .171. That means that he is getting REALLY REALLY lucky.
Looking at Matt Kemp’s LD% of 28.8%, his BABIP should be at .408. If you compare that number to his BABIP of .513, there is a difference of .105. So while he is still getting a fair amount of luck, he is having a lot LESS luck than Rasmus, but a regression should still be expected for both players.
how come xBABIP does not factor in how HARD a ball is hit. GB hit harder have a better chance to make it through the IF. Linedrives hit harder have a better chance of falling. FB hit harder have a better chance of gapping.
In short, if xBABIP can not consider how hard a player is hitting a ball it’s doing a very incomplete job.
This is why, in part, year in and year out, the underachievers list is dotted with guys who suck, and the overacheivers list is dotted with some of the best hitters in the league.