Archive for Trade Possibilities

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Ian Kinsler – An ankle injury kept Kinsler out of the lineup early in the year. It is unclear if that injury has led to his decline in power. Kinsler has just 3 HR in 201 ABs after hitting 31 HR in 2009. He is suffering from hitting fewer FB and hitting fewer of those FB out of the park. But in his last eight games, Kinsler is batting .412 with 2 HR and 3 SB. It could be a small sample fluke or it could be evidence that the ankle is finally not bothering him anymore. I lean towards the latter and expect Kinsler to exceed the 10 HR (R) ZiPS projects for him.

Shane Victorino – Preseason projections had Victorino batting between .283 and .290, making his .249 AVG particularly annoying for his owners. A .227 BABIP in June has been especially troubling for Victorino. But the rest of his fantasy numbers are on pace or better than what was expected from him coming into the season. He is still a good source of SB and has displayed more HR power than anticipated. A comeback in AVG would make his fantasy season complete.

Barry Zito – After starting the season 6-1, Zito has cooled off considerably. In his last eight decisions he is 1-3 with a 4.80 ERA. But Zito has 5 Quality Starts in that span and could easily have a few more wins to his credit. Overall his FIP (3.78) is right in line with his ERA (3.43). Zito’s xFIP is considerably higher, but he has posted a lower ERA than xFIP in the eight previous years, each season for which xFIP data is available. With a solid WHIP (1.23) and an acceptable K rate (6.26), Zito remains an above-average pitcher if he keeps his ERA at his current FIP levels.

SELL

Adrian Gonzalez – Heading into the final day of June, Gonzalez has a .363 AVG with 7 HR and 23 RBIs in the month. He will not maintain either the AVG or RBI pace going forward. Gonzalez is a great player, one of the top sluggers around. But if you have the depth to trade him, now is the time to move him at the height of his value.

Carl Pavano – Raise your hand if you thought Pavano would have 9 W and a 3.33 ERA at the end of June. Last Player Picked has him at $15, making him one of the top 20 pitchers in all of baseball. But his K rate collapsed in June. After posting a 6.32 K/9 the first month of the season, Pavano was down to a 3.83 mark this month. Only a .187 BABIP and an 84.5 LOB% has kept his numbers so strong. Because people remember the injury-prone Pavano of a few years ago, it may be hard to find much trade interest in him. But his owners owe it to themselves to find if anyone is willing to gamble on a top-20 pitcher.

Buster Posey – Trade recommendations are for redraft leagues. Posey is one of the top prospects in the game but in 2010 his name value far exceeds his production. So far he has shown a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone (31.4 O-Swing%) along with having significant trouble versus fastballs (-3.59 wFB/C). Posey has not hit for much power and has a nice AVG thanks to a .310 BABIP. That is at the upper limit of normal levels but catchers as a group tend to have lower BABIPs than other players. Look for Posey’s AVG to fall without having a lot of power to make up for the drop.

HUNCH

Clint Barmes – The injury to Troy Tulowitzki has given Barmes a new lease on life as he takes over as the starting shortstop for the Rockies. After struggling through BABIP nightmares in April (.222) and May (.234) Barmes has turned it around in June to get his mark up to .269 for the season. He’s not going to hit for much of an AVG but at least now it is high enough to be a major league regular. Since taking over at SS, Barmes is hitting .316 with 2 HR, 7 RBIs and 7 R in 11 games. The real question is if he can get back to the power numbers he showed in 2009. I like Barmes to exceed his (R) ZiPS total of 7 HR for the rest of the way.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Zack Greinke – Last Player Picked has Greinke’s 2010 season valued at $0 so far this season, the same as Brandon League and Hisanori Takahashi. Clearly, that is not what owners expected when they spent a second or third-round pick on him. He is underperforming in every category, especially Wins, where he really has a chance to turn things around from here on out. Many fantasy owners abhor chasing Wins but with Greinke we have a player with a .200 winning percentage who has an outside shot to finish above .500 for the season. (R) ZiPS sees him going 8-6 and while that won’t get him to .500 it will make him a much more valuable pitcher going forward.

Pablo Sandoval – Coming into 2009, most fantasy owners thought Sandoval would hit for a good AVG but not give much in HR. Then he went out and put up a .330-25 season and expectations went through the roof for 2010. Sandoval has not met those expectations, instead putting up numbers more in line with preseason 2009 projections. Currently, Sandoval is struggling on the road, where he has a .261 BABIP and a .100 ISO. He is also scuffling versus LHP, with a .229 AVG. Last year Sandoval hit .379 versus southpaws. Sandoval is not going to revert to 2009 levels but there is room for growth in both power and especially AVG.

Matt Wieters – Subjectively, Wieters looks terrible at the plate. Objectively, Wieters has been similar to what he was in 2009 except for poor luck on BABIP. His ISO of .115 is right in line with the .124 he put up last year. His BB/K of 0.38 is similar to last year’s 0.33 and his HR/FB rate of 9.1 compares favorably to last season’s 8.4 percent. But last year Wieters had a .356 BABIP while this year it checks in 90 points lower. Any owner who has watched him play will be happy to trade him. Anyone who believes in regression could see him being a serviceable fantasy catcher the rest of the year.

SELL

Cole Hamels – One of the most common questions asked in these columns is “What could I get for Player X in trade?” That’s an impossible question to answer because there are so many variables involved, not the least of which is an individual owner’s trading skills. But since he was listed as a “buy” above, how about trading Hamels for Greinke? Here are the current numbers:

CH – 6 W, 3.75 ERA, 85 Ks, 1.31 WHIP — $3
ZG – 2 W, 3.94 ERA, 83 Ks, 1.20 WHIP — $0

And here are the (R) ZiPS projections:

CH – 7 W, 3.98 ERA, 109 Ks, 1.23 WHIP
ZG – 8 W, 3.41 ERA, 121 Ks, 1.18 WHIP

Kevin Kouzmanoff – After a slow start, Kouzmanoff has been raking in the month of June, with a .402 AVG, 5 HR and 13 RBIs, and a week still to go to pad the counting numbers. Kouzmanoff has a good chance to reach 20 HR but he has never been very good with his BABIP, which currently sits at .320 for the season. His current AVG seems inflated and this feels like the right time to execute a sell-high move.

Ty Wigginton – Perhaps a bit past the peak time to sell high, Wigginton still has good overall numbers. He has additional value due to his position eligibility. He has played over 20 games at both 1B and 2B, which combined with his eligibility at 3B from last season, makes him available to fill multiple holes for potential owners. While the forecast is not pessimistic for Wigginton going forward, owners have to be concerned about playing time. He is a butcher in the field and with the Orioles going nowhere, he could easily lose ABs down the stretch to younger players.

HUNCH

Alfredo Simon – Earlier in the year it looked like Simon was grabbing hold of the closer’s role. But an injury put everything in flux and the Orioles have David Hernandez and Mike Gonzalez as immediate and future competitors for the position. But I like Simon’s chances to nail down the role. (R) ZiPS really can’t be used as a comparison in this case, as it sees him making some starts the rest of the season. But Simon has 7 Saves currently and has a shot to finish the year with 20.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Nyjer Morgan – Owners drafted him for speed and Morgan has been successful on just 14 of 24 SB attempts. Also, he was hitting so poorly as the Nationals’ leadoff man that he was dropped lower in the order. But Morgan has played well the last two weeks while everyone is dumping on him. In his last 14 games (13 starts), Morgan is batting .286 with 9 R and 5 SB in 7 attempts. He is a three-category performer who struggled while suffering through a poor BABIP stretch. ZiPS (U) shows him with 35 SB and that seems to be on the low side of what he should be expected to do given his speed and recent success ratio.

Francisco Rodriguez – Ask any Mets fan or Rodriguez owner if they feel comfortable when he comes on to nail down the save. Tuesday he allowed a 2-run HR in the ninth inning but held on for the save, prompting Metsdradamus to label it an “8” on the Coronary Meter. But if you do not watch the games and just view the results in the box scores, you will see that Rodriguez’ results are more than satisfactory. In the last 30 games, he is tied with Jonathan Broxton for most Saves in the majors with 9. In that time span he has a nice 12.09 K/9 ratio. And even though hitters are enjoying a .393 BABIP against Rodriguez, he has a very acceptable 2.97 ERA in that stretch. The results can be even better in the future if his BABIP regresses to normal levels.

James Shields – He has dropped three straight decisions and now carries his highest ERA (4.55) since his rookie season in 2006. But Shields is on pace to record his highest K/9 (8.68) of his career and his xFIP of 3.39 is a personal best. The Rays righty is scuffling right now due to a 50 percent strand rate, the lowest of any qualified pitcher in the last 30 days. Once he improves with runners on base, Shields will be a pitcher to help in all four categories thanks to Tampa Bay’s offense and the chance for big Win totals.

SELL

Matt Cain – Everyone thought Cain was lucky last year but he is topping even that pace with his current hot streak. In 2009, Cain had an ERA 1.33 lower than his xFIP. This year it is 2.49 lower thanks to a 94.8 LOB% in his last six starts. Now, Cain’s ERA has been better than his xFIP each season of his career, so it is certainly not all due to luck. Still, now is a good time to look to sell high on a pitcher who has gone 4-0 with a 0.55 ERA in his last four starts.

Aubrey Huff – After a poor start to the season, Huff has been on an extended hot streak. In his last 41 games he is batting .333 with 8 HR and 26 RBIs. That has caused his ownership in CBS Sports leagues to rise from 40 to 75 percent. But it is questionable if Huff can maintain this pace going forward and there are also some playing time concerns going forward. With Buster Posey and Pat Burrell both making the case for consistent at-bats, Huff may find it hard to match last year’s 536 ABs.

Colby Rasmus – Last year LHP devoured Rasmus as they limited him to a .474 OPS in 115 PA. But this year Rasmus has a .951 OPS versus southpaws in 44 PA and he is faring even better against RHP. In his last 30 games, Rasmus has been hitting everything in sight, as he has a .444 BABIP and a 25.0 HR/FB rate. Neither the overall success nor the results versus LHP are likely to keep up their current pace, making Rasmus a sell-high candidate. ZiPS (R) has him for a .269 AVG and 11 HR, and it is hard to believe his trade value is not higher than that.

HUNCH

Mark Teixeira – A notorious slow starter, Teixeira got off to his usual slow start and then turned things around in May. But ZiPS was not all that thrilled with Teixeira to start the year and the updated version shows reduced totals in AVG, HR and RBIs. I am going to side with history and predict that Teixeira exceeds his ZiPS (U) totals of .252-27-104.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Carlos Lee – In his first 44 games, Lee was absolutelIn his first 44 games, Lee was absolutely dreadful. He was hitting for neither AVG (.192) nor power (5 HR in 167 ABs). But in the last two weeks, Lee has broke out of his slump in a big way and is batting .340 with 12 RBIs in 13 games. ZiPS (R) sees a .280 AVG with 15 HR and 62 RBIs the rest of the way and that might be selling him short. There is still a lot of room for growth with his BABIP (.227) and even with the awful start, when he did not hit a HR in April, his HR/FB rate is at 9.2 percent.

Ted Lilly – He got off to a late start to the season and then got knocked around in both his second and third outings of the year. But in his last six starts, Lilly has been as good as ever, even though his 0-3 mark in that frame does not show it. Lilly has recorded a Quality Start in each of those past six outings and has a 2.49 ERA over 43.1 IP. With a 4.62 xFIP, Lilly’s current owner may be in a mood to sell. Most of that number comes about because of a decrease in Ks and an increase in BB. But Lilly has picked up the pace with his strikeouts and in his last outing he did not walk a batter in 8 IP.

Clayton Richard – It is easy to see a Padres pitcher with a low ERA and an xFIP one and a quarter runs higher and make the conclusion that he is succeeding thanks to Petco Park. But Richard has pitched just as well on the road so far this season and his ERA was consistent in both April (3.00) and May (3.00). Richard has shaved nearly a full walk off his BB/9 from a year ago while his K/9 has remained steady. Some will point to his 81.0 LOB% as the main reason for his success. But Richard gets grounders, has a low LD% (16.7) and his O-Swing% is up to 28.5 percent. And he helps himself by having one of the toughest pickoff moves in the game.

SELL

Adam Dunn – One of the three true outcome kings, Dunn is walking less and hitting fewer HR this year. But the most surprising thing is his .280 AVG, which would easily be a career high. Of course, that comes with a .362 BABIP, which eclipses last year’s personal-best .324 mark. The additional base hits have Dunn just as valuable as ever with a .396 wOBA. But his fantasy value will fall when the AVG drops and unlike past years, Dunn will not prop it up with 40-HR power.

Derek Lowe – Great run support, especially early in the year, has helped Lowe to 8 W so far this season. But the rest of his fantasy numbers are underwhelming. His ERA is 5.04, his WHIP of 1.45 is just barely better than last year’s disappointing number and his K/9 of 5.28 is below-average. Lowe did real off wins in three straight outings before getting roughed up in his last start. His FIP and xFIP are three quarters of a run better than his ERA. See if that or his win total or his reputation can get someone to bite on him and take him off your hands. The slider which was such an effective pitch for Lowe while he was with the Dodgers is now a below-average offering.

Jon Rauch – After getting quality fantasy numbers from Rauch for two months, the time has come to try and sell high on Rauch and his 15 Saves. The 6-11 Rauch has done an admirable job filling in for Joe Nathan. But his WHIP is nothing special, he no longer is a big strikeout pitcher and his ERA is being propped up by a 5.9 HR/FB rate. Rauch has yet to give up a HR in 13 road innings and has allowed just 2 HR at home despite a 63.6 FB% in Target Field.

HUNCH

Troy Glaus – In the seven seasons prior to 2010, Glaus played in 115 games or fewer four times, including last year when he appeared in just 14 games and had only 29 ABs. But when healthy, Glaus has delivered consistent numbers, as good or better than the .377 OBP and .480 SLG he holds currently. Playing time is the big concern with Glaus, but he has already exceeded the amount of action he saw in two of his four injured seasons. I like Glaus’ chances to stay healthy and appear in 140 or more games this season and top his ZiPS (U) line of .271-22-92-64-1.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Dan Haren – One of the top 10 pitchers off the board in most fantasy drafts, Haren has produced a -$3 fantasy value this year according to Last Player Picked. On top of that, Haren is known as a first-half pitcher, as his ERA is nearly a full run higher after the All-Star break and his WHIP goes from 1.085 to 1.316 in the second half of the year. But Haren has been one of the unluckier pitchers around, with a .342 BABIP and a 17.0 HR/FB rate. His GB/FB ratio is nearly identical to where it was a year ago and Haren’s K/BB ratio of 5.53 is the second-best mark in baseball.

Juan Rivera – His ownership rate in CBS Sports leagues has declined from 77 percent on Opening Day to just 45% this week. Rivera got off to a slow start in April and did even worse in May. But Rivera had just a .203 BABIP last month. With Kendry Morales on the shelf, there are no worries about Rivera not getting the playing time to work out of his slump. He is likely available for little cost and could provide a nice HR bump going forward. And with a little better luck on balls in play he could prove not to be an anchor in AVG, either.

David Wright – Current owners may look at his .353 BABIP and .269 AVG and decide that Wright is no longer an elite fantasy player. Certainly, the 35.5 K% is troubling to everyone. But Wright’s HR power is back from its 2009 vacation, as his 16.4 HR/FB mark is nearly 10 percent higher from a year ago and right in line with the numbers he produced from 2004-2008. (U) ZiPS sees him getting the same 27 SB he did a season ago. So the big question is: How will Wright do in AVG here on out? A plethora of Ks killed his AVG through most of May, but Wright seems to be getting on track recently. In the tiny sample of eight games, Wright has 6 Ks in 29 ABs and a .310/.382/.517 slash line. In his previous 21 games, Wright fanned in 34 of his 80 ABs and posted a .250 AVG. If Wright can keep his strikeouts down to his career level of 20.9 percent, he is a good bet to challenge for .300 going forward.

SELL

Elvis Andrus – Despite a .267 AVG last year, Andrus excited fantasy players with his ability to steal bases. (U) ZiPS shows him finishing the 2010 season with 43 SB, which would top all of the preseason projections for him. Andrus is also projected to smash the preseason predicitions with 92 R, thanks in part to his move to the top of the order. But now is the time to sell high on the Rangers’ shortstop. His .380 BABIP screams regression. (R) ZiPS sees a .318 mark here on out and even that might be optimistic. As a GB hitter with good speed who can hit line drives, Andrus profiles as a player who would post a high BABIP. But last year he had a .305 mark in 541 PA.

Matt Garza – A four-category contributor on the first-place Rays, Garza is ready to challenge for career-bests in each fantasy category. But his K/9 is down from 8.38 a year ago to 7.11, his GB/FB ratio is a career-low 0.84 and he has a .266 BABIP. Garza has consistently posted low HR rates, so his FIP might be a better marker than xFIP, but both of those metrics are a full run above his current 3.08 ERA.

Andy Pettitte – The Yankees ace just keeps rolling along and is on pace for a 20-win season for the first time since 2003. But (R) ZiPS sees his production from here on out falling off significantly. And given Pettitte’s age (38 in June), xFIP (4.09) and injury concern, that projection should be taken seriously. Pettitte missed a start in early May due to elbow inflammation. In four starts since returning, he has a 3.08 ERA and a 4.85 K/9.

HUNCH

Torii Hunter – Last season Hunter was enjoying a career year before ending up on the DL with a groin injury which cost him 39 games. This year Hunter got off to a solid start in April but scuffled in May. After pounding fastballs last year, Hunter is below-average against them this season. I like Hunter to recapture the magic from last year and exceed his (U) ZiPS projection of .278-21-83-77-12.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Jose Reyes – Those owners who gambled on Reyes might be ready to cut bait. In addition to his .232 AVG, Reyes’ walk rate is less than half of what it was a season ago, he has yet to hit a single HR after reaching double-digits in his last three healthy seasons and he ranks fifth in the majors with a 20.0 IFFB%. But since returning to the leadoff spot 10 games ago, Reyes is batting .283 with 8 R and 3 SB. It’s too late to get him for pennies on the dollar but RoS ZiPS shows him with 30 SB the rest of the way. And those will be worthy paying for if they come with above average R and AVG marks.

Wandy Rodriguez – His BB/9 is up, while his K/9 and HR/9 are down from a year ago. It adds up to an ERA 1.31 higher than it was in 2009 and an xFIP 76 points above last year’s mark. Rodriguez has struggled this year with his curveball. The pitch which had been such a strong offering for the previous three seasons now checks in with a wCB/C of -2.55, a change of 4.5 runs from 2009. It is hard to imagine his curve being so poor the rest of the season – the most likely scenarios are that he either improves with it from here on out or ends up on the DL. If his back can hold up, Rodriguez is a good buy-low candidate.

Ervin Santana – His numbers look solid overall but Santana has pitched very well after getting roughed up in his first two starts of the year. He allowed 9 ER in his first 11.2 IP but since then Santana has given up 19 ER in 57.1 IP for a 2.98 ERA. While his average FB velocity is still down from his big 2008 season, Santana is getting good mileage with his slider. On Tuesday’s start against the Blue Jays, Santana got 14 swinging strikes with his slider. His xFIP and RoS ZiPS both show Santana as a sell candidate but with each start he looks further removed from 2009’s 5.03 ERA and closer the 2008 version, even without the great fastball.

SELL

Adrian Beltre – Many people expected Beltre to bounce back in 2010 with his move to Fenway Park. Safeco Field suppressed power from RH hitters and many thought that Beltran would at least get back to his mid-20s HR power, if not more than that. But Beltre has a career-low 28.9 FB%, making a big HR season virtually impossible. Right now Beltre’s value is tied up in his .327 AVG, which is the result of his .381 BABIP. Beltre has topped .300 just once in his career. He has a .293 lifetime BABIP and his career-best is the .325 he posted in 2004.

Alex Rios – He has rebounded nicely from last year’s dismal performance and is on pace for 34 HR and 53 SB. But Rios has a career-high 14.3 HR/FB rate and a 45.7 FB%, also a personal-best. And not only is Rios hitting more fly balls, he has a 53.9 FB% in his home park, where he has hit six of his nine HR. Perhaps Rios has a completely different approach at the plate at home than he does on the road. But it is more likely to be a fluke. Odds are against Rios hitting 34 HR and even the 24 that Updated ZiPS projects might be optimistic. Clearly, at age 29, a career-high in HR would not be unexpected, but do not expect him to shatter his previous best of 24 HR. Also, Rios’ career-high in SB is 32 and in his other five full seasons in the majors, he has averaged 17 SB per year.

Alfonso Soriano – George Steinbrenner once dubbed Dave Winfield “Mr. May” and that moniker might work for Soriano, too. He is batting .347 with 6 HR and 16 RBIs this month with six games left to play. Lifetime, Soriano has 67 HR in May, the most of any month in his career. Soriano currently has a .363 BABIP and a .306 ISO, both of which would easily be career-bests. Fantasy owners likely got Soriano at a huge discount after his poor season in 2009. While they should not just give him away, neither should his owners look to get too greedy with a player who has missed 98 games the past two seasons.

HUNCH

Joe Saunders – I am a big Saunders fan because he consistently delivers Wins despite poor peripherals. Even with a 3-6 record this year, Saunders has a 51-28 lifetime record. After starting the season 1-5 with a 7.04 ERA, Saunders has seemingly gotten back on track in his last four games, going 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA. I like him to better his RoS ZiPS projection of a 9-8 record and 4.84 ERA.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Scott Baker – Right now his ERA is a poor 4.93 and his WHIP checks in at 1.36, not what owners were expecting when they drafted him in the middle rounds of their fantasy draft. But Baker has a 3.91 K/BB ratio and both his FIP and xFIP show a pitcher who should have an ERA in the 3.65 range. It has been feast or famine for Baker this year, with four Quality Starts and three outings where he gave up 5 ER or more. But this is the same guy who went 26-13 over the two previous seasons with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.184 WHIP. Baker has a .342 BABIP, so there is reason to hope the beatings will taper off once regression kicks in.

Edwin Jackson – Most fantasy owners did not expect a repeat of Jackson’s 2009, when he posted 13 Wins and a 3.62 ERA. But few expected him to be 2-5 with a 6.33 ERA in the third week of May, either. Jackson’s xFIP actually shows him as a better pitcher this year (4.08) than a season ago (4.39). Right now he is being hurt by the gopher ball, having allowed 8 HR in 54 IP. Six of those homers have come in home starts, as Jackson is adjusting to pitching in Chase Field. But Jackson has dramatically increased his GB/FB rate from 0.92 to 1.47 this year. His K/9 rate is up to 7.33 from 6.77 a year ago. If his HR/FB rate moves away from its current 15.1 percent, Jackson could see a huge boost in his fantasy value.

Magglio Ordonez – In 2007 Ordonez combined for 256 R + RBIs thanks in part to a .595 SLG. The following year he was down to 175 R + RBIs and a .494 SLG and last year those marks were 104 and .428, respectively. Ordonez is off to a fast start, one that has him on pace to better 2008’s numbers. There will be owners out there looking to sell high on Ordonez, but neither his BABIP (.323 vs. 318 lifetime) nor HR/FB (12.5 vs. 13.5) are unsustainable. His 1.35 BB/K is the best mark of his career as is his 90.2 Contact%. Since contact rate is one of the quickest stats to stabilize (150 PA), Ordonez’ is likely to maintain his improvement in this area for the remainder of the season.

SELL

Andrew McCutchen – A fast start has McCutchen on pace to shatter pre-season expectations. But if a .376 BABIP raises eyebrows for an unsustainable rate, the Dutton-Carty xBABIP model has McCutchen’s line so far this year producing a .323 BABIP. McCutchen’s power in 2009 in the majors caught a lot of people by surprise but he has matched that production so far this year, too. But it is unlikely that he will maintain an AVG 40-50 points higher than all of the projection systems forecasted for him. McCutchen should not be traded at all costs, but now is an excellent time to cash in on his great start.

Justin Morneau – He currently leads the league in AVG and is third in home runs. Morneau is achieving that with a .404 BABIP and career-high marks in both FB% (52.4) and HR/FB (20.0). A high BABIP usually does not accompany a high FB%. Of the eight batters with a 50 percent or better FB%, only three have a BABIP over .300, so it is very likely that at least one of these marks is going to have to give. Traditionally, Morneau has been an excellent RBI man. But even with his great start in AVG and HR, he is on pace to deliver fewer RBIs than either 2006 or 2008. Like McCutchen, Morneau is another guy who will produce good numbers throughout the 2010 season. But his trade value will never be higher.

David Price – Over-hyped in 2009, Price fell off the radar for a lot of fantasy owners heading into drafts this year. He has rewarded fantasy owners who did not give up on him with a fantastic start, as he is 6-1 with a 1.81 ERA. However, by xFIP, Price is not substantially better in 2010 than he was a season ago, when he finished 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA. This year’s xFIP is 3.98 while it was 4.49 in 2009. I would be a shade more aggressive shopping Price at this point than either of the hitters mentioned above.

HUNCH

Jeff Francis – After missing all of the 2009 season recovering from labrum surgery, Francis is back in the majors with the Rockies. The history of pitchers with this surgery is not encouraging but I like Francis’ chance to buck those odds and beat his RoS ZiPS projection of 4 W, 4.55 ERA, 60 Ks and a 1.41 WHIP.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Shin-Soo Choo – The current owner may look at Choo’s .392 BABIP and figure this is as good as it’s going to get, especially since Updated ZiPS projects him to finish with 17 HR and 16 SB. But Choo has always posted ultra-high BABIPs so he may not drop off as far as some might predict. The current ZiPS forecast seems especially pessimistic, considering that he went 20-20 last year and is on a current pace for 22-32.

Chipper Jones – He is very brittle and currently carries an uninspiring .230-2-7-13-2 fantasy line. But Jones is not one to look at things through rose-colored glasses and he considers himself to be seeing the ball good and just experiencing bad luck. “When I’m drawing walks you know I’m seeing the ball good,” Jones told David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “Everybody points to the RBI, but when there’s not a lot of opportunities you can’t help that.” Jones is 6-for-19 with two doubles, seven walks and one strikeout in his past six games. Health is always a factor but Jones feels good about himself and he has been on a mini hot streak. It could all add up to a nice pickup for a low price, especially if his current owner is concerned about Jones’ current groin injury.

Johan Santana – This marks the sixth straight season that Santana has seen a rise in his xFIP and his K/9 continues to fall, down to 7.56, his worst mark since he was a reliever in 2001. Santana’s average fastball velocity has dipped below 90 for the first time in his career. But so much of Santana’s poor overall numbers this year (velocity excepted) is the result of the horrific outing against the Phillies in which he allowed 4 HR and gave up 10 ER in 3.2 IP. In his other six games, Santana has a 2.61 ERA with 9 BB and 34 Ks in 38 IP. Now, you cannot just throw out starts that you do not like, but you should not panic about one bad outing, either. Check to see if his current owner is doing the latter.

SELL

Tim Hudson – While never a big strikeout pitcher, Hudson generally gave fantasy owners good numbers in the other three categories for SP. But this year his K/9 is down to a dismal 3.45 or nearly half of his lifetime mark. His ERA sits at a nifty 2.64 but both his FIP and xFIP are around two runs per game worse than that. Right now it seems on the surface to be a typical Hudson year where he is good in three categories. But it is unlikely that either his ERA or WHIP will remain this low going forward.

Jeff Niemann – Like Hudson, xFIP paints a much bleaker picture of Niemann’s early-season results than his ERA. Both his FIP and xFIP are nearly identical to 2009, when his ERA was 1.67 higher than his current 2.27 mark. Niemann is throwing his splitter twice as often as last year, and with good results, too. But it seems unlikely that his fine pitching early in 2010 has more to do with the change in his repertoire than Niemann simply being the recipient of good fortune.

Justin Upton – One of the first outfielders off the board in fantasy and likely gone by the second round in most leagues, Upton is off to a poor start. Whenever I recommend to sell a high draft pick not performing well, people comment that now is the worst time to trade him. Obviously, Upton will not be this bad the rest of the season. The key is to get more in return than he will produce the rest of the way. It seems to me his trade value is greater than the .274-20-70 that RoS ZiPS projects for him. In one recent CBS Sports league, he was dealt straight up for Matt Holliday, who seems likely to outperform Upton in AVG, R and RBIs going forward while it should be relatively close in the other two categories.

HUNCH

Nick Swisher – His BABIP is 56 points higher than his career average and his 17.5 HR/FB rate is 0.4 away from his career-best mark. But I predict that Swisher will keep up his strong performance throughout the season and exceed the Updated ZiPS marks of .264-28-94-92-1 at the end of the year.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Josh Hamilton – There were a lot of doubts about Hamilton coming into the season, specifically if he could remain healthy. So far, so good on that end, although there will always be health-related concerns around him. Hamilton is laying off more pitches outside of the zone and has the highest BB% (11.6) of his career. Some will look at his .333 BABIP and 14.3 HR/FB rate and conclude this is the best he is going to do all season. But from a fantasy perspective, Hamilton could see a big rise in RBIs in the coming months. The Rangers have already removed OBP sinkhole Julio Borbon from the top of the order and hopefully Ian Kinsler can slot into his customary position ahead of Hamilton and bring his .391 OBP with him.

Justin Masterson – An 0-3 record and a 5.40 ERA has Masterson owned in only 41 percent of CBS Sports leagues. But it is hard to imagine anything but the shallowest leagues where a 10.46 K/9 is not worthy of a roster spot. Masterson’s walk rate has never been good in the majors, and this year is no exception with a 4.05 BB/9. But what is really hurting him this year is a 26.7 HR/FB rate. Masterson has allowed 4 HR in 26.2 IP. His xFIP checks in at 3.11. Previously Masterson has had normal HR/FB rates and if it regresses to those levels the rest of the year, he should be a very valuable fantasy pitcher, even on the 10-16 Indians.

Scott Rolen – The past three seasons, Rolen has played in 128, 115 and 112 games so he is not the most durable player out there. But he remains a productive hitter while in the lineup. And right now Rolen’s numbers are being dragged down by a .239 BABIP. He has a nice .250 ISO, thanks to 6 HR in 84 ABs. Obviously he will not be able to keep up that HR pace, but Rolen should easily surpass preseason expectations that he would hit just 10-14 HR. He has really enjoyed hitting in the Great American Ballpark, as lifetime Rolen has 14 HR in 208 ABs at the GABP. And once he raises his current .200 BABIP in road parks, Rolen could be on his way to his best season since 2006.

SELL

Jaime Garcia – Everyone’s favorite rookie pitcher, Garcia has seen his CBS Sports ownership jump from 24 percent at the beginning of the year to 84 percent now. We know all about his phenomenal ground ball rate and how pitching coach Dave Duncan has had success in the past with these types of hurlers. But now is the time to sell high. He has a 3.73 xFIP and RoS ZiPS projects him with a 4.43 ERA (although its IP estimate seems way off). Garcia is likely to remain a useful to good fantasy pitcher the rest of the season, but like Joel Pineiro can tell you, eventually you give up some homers regardless of how many ground balls you allow.

Kevin Gregg – If you look at Gregg’s FanGraphs page you might conclude that his success this season is due to throwing fewer fastballs and sliders and more cutters and splitters. Last year both his cutter and splitter were below-average pitches and both have been tremendous in 2010, helping Gregg to a 64.3 GB%. But PitchFX guru Mike Fast thinks that Gregg has not really changed his arsenal much at all and that it is more of a reclassification of the BIS identification system. Gregg has lost his closer’s role for the Marlins in 2008 and the Cubs in 2009. Right now he is on a nice hot streak so look to sell high before regression hits since he likely has not added anything new to his repertoire.

Aramis Ramirez – Many people view Ramirez as a buy candidate, since he got off to such a terrible start (perhaps due to not being fully recovered from injury) and his BABIP is so low. But the strikeouts are alarming, with his 25.7 K% the first time since his rookie year in 1998 that it tops 20 percent. Ramirez is not chasing more pitches out of the zone and his O-Contact% is nearly identical to what it was last year. Instead, it appears that most of the trouble comes from catching up to fastballs. Ramirez has a Z-Contact% down over 9 percent from last year and his wFB/C has gone from 1.36 a season ago to -4.90 in 2010. Meanwhile his wSL/C has nearly tripled, going from 0.55 to 1.44. Ramirez has started to hit better in the last week (only 4 Ks in his last 38 ABs, although with a .184 AVG) but there should be at least a little bit of concern about his slider-speed bat. This is not a recommendation to sell at all costs but to see if you can get close to his preseason value. RoS ZiPS still forecasts him to finish with 20 HR and 97 RBIs, nearly identical to its preseason prediction of 21 and 101. But I am not optimistic that he will hit those marks.

HUNCH

Brian Matusz – Most people would shy away from a rookie pitcher in the AL East who is a flyball pitcher in front of the Orioles outfield defense. While coolstandings.com shows the remainder of the Orioles schedule against teams with a .545 winning percentage, I like Matusz to exceed his Updated ZiPS marks of 10 W, 4.51 ERA and 7.16 K/9.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Aaron Harang – Since winning 16 games in 2007, Harang has gone 6-17, 6-14 and is now off to a 1-3 start in 2010. His K/9 has fallen a full point over last season and his WHIP is an ugly 1.59, which is tied for 16th-worse in baseball. But Harang is suffering from the one-two punch of a .352 BABIP and a 59.6 LOB%. And to make matters worse, he has a 20 percent HR/FB rate. On the plus side, Harang is getting more ground balls than he has since 2004 and his K/BB ratio remains a very nice 3.00 despite the drop in strikeouts. Harang’s velocity is a tick better than last year but he is having some problems with his curve. An improvement with his breaking ball, combined with regression in his BABIP and LOB%, could make Harang a valuable pitcher the rest of the way.

Matt Lindstrom – Not many people viewed Lindstrom as a good bet at closer, coming off a 2009 season where he lost that job twice while a member of the Marlins. To make matters worse, the Astros had a viable alternative available in Brandon Lyon. But all Lindstrom has done this year is to be lights out in his nine games. His fastball velocity is down and he is throwing his slider more often. And with that he has 10 Ks and 1 BB in 9 IP. Lindstrom is getting a career-best 33.3 O-Swing% and has a personal best 48.1 GB%. Ideally, owners would have traded for Lindstrom while the Astros were losing every game at the beginning of the season. But it is still worth checking to see what the asking price is on a pitcher who looks primed to have a dominating season.

Brian McCann – His AVG is down 31 points and his SLG is 57 points beneath his final 2009 numbers. Pitchers are treating McCann with extra care, as Martin Prado is the only Braves player currently riding a hot streak in the season’s first month. McCann carries a career-best 21.6 BB%, which is tied with Josh Willingham for the sixth-best mark in the majors. But McCann has been unlucky with a .240 BABIP. And historically, April has not been the best month for him. McCann has a .271 lifetime AVG in April and an .829 OPS. In May those numbers are .350 and .976, respectively.

SELL

Robinson Cano – An unbelievably hot start for Cano has caused the hype machine to go into overdrive, as evidenced by this story, where Reggie Jackson said the Yankees second baseman would be recognized as the best in the American League and ready to take on Chase Utley by the end of the season. While Cano has usually had an above-average BABIP, his current mark of .390 cannot last. Additionally, his .292 ISO is nearly 100 points above his personal best. Cano is likely to be one of the top players at his position at the end of the year, but now is a great time to see if you can cash in on his value. His ADPs put him at the end of the fourth round coming into the season and he currently has delivered first-round production.

Adam Jones – A breakout season last year made Jones a favorite of many fantasy players. This year he is off to a slow start, thanks to a .242 BABIP. But his ISO of .178 is nearly identical to last year’s .180 mark. Updated ZiPS shows him beating last year’s marks in HR, R and RBIs while tying his production in SB. But I am pessimistic about Jones reaching that forecast. His BB rate has collapsed from bad to atrocious, his HR/FB rate has regressed significantly from last year’s 17.8 mark and his 38.9 O-Swing% is tied for the 10th-worst mark in baseball.

Mike Pelfrey – One of the feel-good stories for the first-place Mets has been the production of Pelfrey, who is 4-0 with a 0.69 ERA. In the process, he’s gone from being owned in 25 percent of CBS Sports leagues on Opening Day to 86 percent currently. But by xFIP, Pelfrey is essentially pitching the same as he did last year, when he had a 5.03 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. Yes, he is throwing strikes and adding more pitches to his arsenal. But he also has a .249 BABIP, a 93.6 strand rate and has yet to give up a home run. Trade him before regression hits.

HUNCH

John Maine – As good as Pelfrey has been for the Mets this season, Maine has been every bit as bad. Both his FIP and xFIP are over 6.00, his BB/9 are up to an unacceptable 5.40 and his velocity is down two miles per hour on his average fastball. But I like Maine’s chances to turn things around. He has been able to throw his slider nearly 20 percent of the time. If he can regain the velocity on his fastball he can return to being the pitcher he was during his 15-win 2007 season. Maine had to leave his last start early, due to muscle spasms in his non-throwing arm. He has been cleared to pitch, and is scheduled to take the mound this afternoon, in just under an hour from when I write this. Make me look good, Maine!