Archive for The 10

What in the Melville?

You might not remember Tim Melville’s first 14.7 innings as a major leaguer, thrown in 2016-17 split between Cincinnati, Minnesota, and San Diego. I wouldn’t blame you for that as he had an 11.05 ERA, 2.59 WHIP, and 9.90 FIP with a hot 0% K-BB ratio. You might’ve even missed his 12 innings this year, an emergency start against Arizona during which he allowed just one run on two hits and two walks and then five shutout innings in Coors against the Braves thrown yesterday afternoon.

It’s hard to put much credence in any of the samples, but it’s clear that he’s markedly different than he was in 2016-17. First, he’s throwing 4 mph slower than he did in 2017, down to 89.7 mph, but he’s also not really throwing a fastball. In these 12 innings, he’s thrown his heater just 32% of the time. Instead, he’s decided to become a slider-first pitcher, throwing it 55% of the time so far.

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Another Big Opening Day for Casty

Nicholas "Galaxy Brain" Castellanos has some … ~thoughts~ … on why everyday is Opening Day.

📰: https://t.co/KZt8nOLqFk
📹: @RickTarsitano pic.twitter.com/NKGxuWGYrX

— Cut4 (@Cut4) August 22, 2019

Apparently, every day is Opening Day for the newest Cub Nicholas Castellanos and his “season” opens with a bang regularly as he’s been on fire since being traded over from Detroit. In just 19 games, he’s hitting a robust .392/.429/.785 with 8 HR (a full season pace of 69 nice homers), 12 RBI, and 17 R, quickly becoming a fan favorite in Wrigley. The 27-year old is still a negative defender, but he’s not worst-in-the-league level anymore making it easier to thrive on a NL team. He’s regaining his pre-2019 shine, so it’ll be interesting to see where he goes in 2020 drafts.

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German’s Home Run Troubles Continue

Domingo Germán came out of the break with six scoreless against Toronto, but has struggled mightily to keep the ball in the yard in his other seven starts. He’s allowed 14 HR in 39.3 innings (3.2 HR/9), including four straight multi-homer outings. The schedule hasn’t been friendly with starts against TB, MIN, BOSx2, and TOR (the baby Jays are 7th in HRs v. righties since the break) not to mention a trip to face the Dodgers on the docket later this week. German could be hitting a wall coming down the stretch of his first full MLB season as a starter. If you need the strikeouts, keep him in the lineup, but if you’re protecting ratios, consider sitting him in these more difficult matchups.

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In one of the earlier editions of “The 10”, I wrote about some of the early season breakouts and assessed their viability. It’s time to check in on them and more. I’ll be covering 20 hitters here so it’s essentially a double edition, which is good since I haven’t written a single iteration of “The 10” in the month of June.

Let’s cut to the chase, only two of the 20 have improved their wRC+ since April and truthfully, it’s only one since the other guy has added just two points. However, these guys didn’t need to improve or even maintain their gaudy April numbers to remain viable fantasy contributors.

I’ll break them up into groups according to their performance from May 1st through June 24th and give some thoughts about how they might perform going forward. I’d also like to acknowledge that wRC+ alone doesn’t determine fantasy viability and I’ll be sure to point out those who are still contributing in other fantasy-useful ways despite sharp drops in their wRC+.

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Baseball Savant recently released these new Pitch Movement leaderboards and they’re very cool. I don’t always get in the weeds on movement numbers to find out who leads what, but this has definitely made that easier. They explain at the top how they come up with the metrics and then show how much better than average the pitcher is with a given pitch’s break or drop.

Caleb Smith’s Fastball Horizontal Movement

Smith’s breakout season has been aided by big improvements in his fastball, including a jump in horizontal break. Only Richard Rodriguez (86% better than average) and Chris Sale (80%) are further above average than Smith’s 71% mark. His 4.8 pitch value on the heater is 25th-best this year and up from -3.0 last year.

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The NFBC kicked off their Memorial Day 2nd Chance leagues last night with three drafts completed and we now have some average draft position (ADP) data to digest. I have my 2CL (is that a cool abbreviation for “2nd Chance League”?) this Friday evening and I’ll be streaming it live on Twitch if you have any interest in watching it. I want to dive in on the biggest fallers here today with some caveats. Or at least one major caveat: my cutoff is the first 15 rounds.

I want to see who is still be taken with some expectation of performance while sustaining a major fall in their cost. The actual biggest droppers without limits are the obvious injury guys. The single biggest fall from the spring Rotowire Online Championship leagues (12-team format to stay consistent with the 2CLs) is Travis Shaw who has the double whammy of injury and severe underperformance. He’s gone from the 95th player chosen on average to the 362nd last night, a colossal 267-pick drop. Miguel Andujar (347th), Jameson Taillon (312th), Luis Severino (280th), and Nathan Eovaldi (390th) are also unsurprisingly amongst the nine players with a 200+ pick dip.

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This week we’re looking at 10 minor leaguers who are going off in the high minors (AA/AAA). We’ll look at what they’re doing and how it might impact a future call-up.

Yordan Alvarez | OF/1B – HOU

The #7 prospect on the Astros list is going off so far this year, already clubbing 14 homers in just 134 PA. He has a 213 wRC+ while improving both his strikeout (21%) and walk (14%) rates. His obscene 48% HR/FB rate obviously won’t continue, but he is absolutely locked in and knocking on the door of the bigs.

Playing time is tight in Houston, but Tyler White needs to be looking over his shoulder with that 95 wRC+. Alvarez isn’t on the 40-man while Kyle Tucker is, but I can’t see how Alvarez’s performance wouldn’t have him first in line if a spot opens, even with it needing the extra work to get him on the 40-man.

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Pardon my delay on “The 10” this week, but we’ve got a good one today! I recently released my May SP rankings and today I’ll highlight 10 of the biggest movers and explain their move in more detail.

5 UP

Jerad Eickhoff, PHI | 56 spots to 51

When I released my previous SP rankings on April 18th, Eickhoff didn’t have a rotation spot just yet. He had a fantastic 4-inning relief appearance two days earlier and joined the rotation three days later with a start in Coors Field. He held his own with a 6 IP/4 ER outing that did see him allow 11 base runners (7 H, 4 BB), but also net eight strikeouts. He followed it up with seven shutout innings against Miami. Obviously beating up the Marlins isn’t exactly a huge feat, but those innings count in all formats!

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We’re still not a full month into the season, but a group of hitters are standing out atop the leaderboards ranging from superstar to fill-in. This week the “The 10” looks at a group that is reaching a level well beyond expectations thus far to see how they’re doing it and whether or not it can sustain at a fantasy-relevant level.

Yoan Moncada, White Sox | .314 AVG, 19 R, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 2 SB in 93 PA

Moncada’s first full season didn’t exactly live up to expectations as he hit just .235 with 17 HR and 12 SB while leading baseball with 217 strikeouts. A breakdown of his bountiful strikeout rate showed that he had the most called third strikes last year (85), just a stunning amount. Jeremy Frank of MLBRandomStats highlighted this fact as well as the fact that Moncada hasn’t struck out looking yet this year:

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I love middle relievers in fantasy baseball. I play in a lot of deeper formats where they are viable as staff supplements even if Holds isn’t a category so I’m always looking out for the next big thing. I’m not completely averse to buying a Josh Hader (although that might be a bad example this year as he’s been the de facto closer with Corey Knebel out for the year and Jeremy Jeffress yet to debut), Dellin Betances, or this year’s draft darling, Ryan Pressly, but a major key to the value of middle relievers is that they’re cheap. Finding the next Hader, Betances, or Pressly is much more useful and can often be done on the fly in-season.

With today’s tattered starting pitcher landscape, middle relievers are as popular as ever, so we need to get the jump on the next big thing since more eyes are searching for them. It’s only April 16th so reliever samples are especially small as only 20 guys have even 10 innings, but I’ve still got my eye on 10 middle men who could help stop the bleeding for those of us toting the obscene ERAs of Carlos Carrasco (12.60), Nick Pivetta (9.45), Chris Sale (9.00), Walker Buehler (8.25), Zack Wheeler (7.47), Aaron Nola (7.45), Corey Kluber (6.16), and more. Some of these guys could even become their team’s closer which would only add to their fantasy value, but that is not a major consideration for this list.

Diego Castillo, TB | 30% K, 10% BB, 14% SwStr, .111 AVG in 9 IP

Castillo is part of a 1-2 punch at the backend of Tampa Bay’s bullpen with closer Jose Alvarado. The righty/lefty duo (Castillo being the righty) had strong seasons in 2018, too, and came into the season battling for the closer’s role. Alvarado won out, but Castillo is a key part of the bridge to the ninth and has already nabbed five Holds in his eight appearances.

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