The 10: Savant’s New Pitch Movement Leaderboard

Baseball Savant recently released these new Pitch Movement leaderboards and they’re very cool. I don’t always get in the weeds on movement numbers to find out who leads what, but this has definitely made that easier. They explain at the top how they come up with the metrics and then show how much better than average the pitcher is with a given pitch’s break or drop.

Caleb Smith’s Fastball Horizontal Movement

Smith’s breakout season has been aided by big improvements in his fastball, including a jump in horizontal break. Only Richard Rodriguez (86% better than average) and Chris Sale (80%) are further above average than Smith’s 71% mark. His 4.8 pitch value on the heater is 25th-best this year and up from -3.0 last year.

Astros Aces Win with High Heat

Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander are tied for the third-best fastball “rise” at 2.7 inches v. average, behind only Sean Doolittle (3.9) and Josh Hader (3.2). Cole and Verlander both also have top 20 horizontal movement on their heater, making them some of the most devastating in the game. They are right next to each other in the upper right of the scatterplot.

Relievers Have The Nastiest Sinkers

Jared Hughes is lapping the field on drop with 11.5 more inches than average (+49% over avg). Ryan Weber (+22% drop, +30% break), Cory Gearrin (+22% drop & break), T.J. McFarland (+33% drop, +10% break), and Alex Claudio (+13% drop, +15% break) possess some of the filthiest sinkers in the game. Among starters (300+ thrown), you’ll be unsurprised to learn that Marcus Stroman leads in drop at +16% over average.

Joey Lucchesi’s Changeup Goes Straight Down!

Lucchesi mixes the best drop (+27%) with the worst break (-123%) which is part of why it’s considered a “Churve”. Our pitch type data shows him with just a 0.4% curveball usage while the changeup is up at 38%. Here’s one that definitely looks curveball-esque.

Mike Soroka Leads in Changeup Run

Among pitchers who have thrown at least 75 changeups, Soroka has a 44% better than average horizontal movement, resulting in some insane arm-side run as we saw in this one for a strikeout. Soroka has a significant 173-point platoon split, but that’s only because his OPS against righties is .405, so even the .578 against lefties is quite good. With this kind of nasty run, perhaps Soroka can leverage the pitch even more than its current 11% usage.

Ryan Pressly’s Curveball Has 156% More Break Than Average

It’s nasty. That is all.

Yu Darvish Has a Great Cutter

Darvish’s cutter breaks 167% more than average and drops 21% than average, both rating best among those with at least 200 thrown. Gross. Lowering the threshold to 100 brings Walker Buehler into the fray at +189% break and Trevor Bauer with a +30% drop.

Sonny Gray’s Slider is Devastating

Gray has an excellent combo of break (+205%) and drop (16%) making for an utterly filthy pitch. The break rate over average is up 50 points over last year and that has likely helped him with the 4.3 pitch value, up from 0.8 last year. That pitch value ranks 12th among starters.

Michael Pineda’s Slider is Missing

Pineda’s slider dropped much more in 2016-17 at +10 over average and now it’s right at average. It’s never had a ton of break, but he’s had even less this year. He has a -5.3 pitch value with it. This is a good time to mention that being at the top for break or drop on a breaking ball doesn’t guarantee success for it.

Let’s Look at Hector Neris’s Splitty

Everyone knows about Kirby Yates and his bananas splitter (1st with +12% drop), but let’s see what Neris is up to with his. He doesn’t get as much horizontal movement has Yates, but his drop is almost exactly the same (+11%). Neris has a 6.7 pitch value on his splitter, easily best in the league (+1.5 over Touki Toussaint), and he’s absolutely leaning into it. His 72% usage is only 3 points lower than adding Yates and Kevin Gausman’s usage together. Welcome to the league, Keston Hiura.





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Matthew Tobin
4 years ago

John Mean’s changeup
https://imgur.com/a/KGvR20i