#2xSP: 5.30-6.5

Alright we’re back here for another week of #2xSP. We’re off to a pretty good start halfway through week seven. Here’s what we’re working with:

17-10 record
3.48 ERA
7.9 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.29 WHIP
24 quality starts

And now here’s who we’re working with this week (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Junior Guerra – 18.1% ESPN – v. STL (116), @PHI (75)

Guerra’s a 31-year-old rookie who has put together a pretty nice first run through the NL with a 3.30 ERA through five starts. He’s got a 3.15 FIP, exactly a strikeout per inning and has allowed just two home runs through 30 innings thus far. Like a lot of week’s we’re sacrificing a pretty tough matchup for a really good one on the other side. Guerra’s PITCHf/x profile is plenty interesting, as he throws in the mid 90s with a slider and a split. The fastball is nothing to write home about in terms of results (.870 OPS against), but the split and curve both carry OPS marks against in the .300s. The split also has an excellent swinging-strike rate of 21 percent. So with that and a solid heater — at least velocity wise — I like him as a decent option this week.

RHP Nate Karns – 29% ESPN – v. SDP (72), @TEX (93)

Karns has put together a pretty nice season — 3.53 ERA, 51 strikeouts/innings — that is more or less identical to what he did in his first season of regular action for the Rays last year. He gets a couple below-average offenses this week, and this’ll be his first look this season at divisional foe Texas, incidentally the same state where he went to college (Texas Tech) and grew up. Karns only really throws three pitches, with the fastball going with a good knucklecurve and a change. The latter two have whiff rates of 11.7 and 20.4 percent, respectively, while he mostly uses the fastball just to fill up the zone. In fact, his 51.3 percent zone rate with his fastball this year is identical to his mark from a season ago. I don’t think he’s an overwhelmingly sexy option, but the matchups make him a good play this week, I believe.

RHP Tyler Duffey – 9.6% ESPN – @OAK (87), v. TBR (107)

Duffey has been embattled over his last two starts, but I believe in the stuff as he’s quite frankly the best thing going for the Twins in the rotation right now — whatever that means. The Kansas City struggles were inexplicable, as he had just one really tough inning where he allowed all five runs, but otherwise pitched a very solid game. Overall though, I like the fastball-knuclecurve mix — wish he’d throw his solid changeup more — and am glad the tougher of the two matchups this week comes at home.





In addition to Rotographs, Warne writes about the Minnesota Twins for The Athletic and is a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com

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feslenraster
7 years ago

I like Guerra too, just not against StL.