#2xSP: 4.25-5.1

We’ve had a pretty good start to the season. Here’s a look at the numbers through a week and a half:

4-3 record
3.02 ERA
9.2 K/9
3.2 K/BB
1.23 WHIP

And perhaps to illustrate just how tough chasing wins can be in this strategy, we went 3-1 in week 1 with a 9.3 K/9 mark, 2.8 BB/9 and 3.00 ERA. Through half of this last week, we went 1-2 with a 3.05 ERA, 9.1 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9.

Anyway, onto this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parenthesis):

RHP Rick Porcello – 21.3 percent ESPN – @ATL (62), v. NYY (102)

This is blatantly ripped off from a tweet I read from Marc Normandin of SB Nation, but since returning from the disabled list last August, Porcello has thrown 76 innings with 9.5 K/9 and a K/BB rate of nearly 6.0. Mix in a healthy groundball rate — though that has taken a dive in the last few years — and I think you might have something here. The Braves matchup is a slam dunk, and the Yankees may be tough — I’m especially looking at Porcello’s home run rate — but he’s too good lately to not give a shot here.

RHP Kevin Gausman – 24 percent ESPN – @TBR (92), v. CWS (70)

I’m ultra-hesitant to place this much trust in a guy coming off the DL, but it’s a mix of hope, talent and matchups this week for Gausman. Like everyone in baseball Twitter I still love the talent, both from a raw standpoint, a “what he showed in 2015 standpoint” and finally the “well take a look around the room” standpoint. The Orioles have channeled their inner Kansas City Royals in building this rotation, and I think Gausman has a good shot to be a big part of it up front. The strikeouts have come in ample supply for Gausman, who got up over 90 pitches in his last rehab stint, and quite frankly if there’s a better time to ease a guy in it’s at this point in the schedule with a pair of subpar offenses. I’m going for it this week, are you?

RHP Kendall Graveman – 3.5 percent ESPN – @DET (114), v. HOU (114)

I went back and forth between Graveman and Drew Pomeranz for a long time, even going so far as to post a poll on Twitter. One reader convinced me to go with Graveman on the basis of being the only one of the two who has even one home start next week — Pomeranz is at Giants and at Dodgers — so even though I hate the offensive matchups, I feel compelled to give him the shot here. Pomeranz has the strikeouts and has pitched well, but outside of the confines of Petco against two strong divisional foes freaks me out a bit. I also suspect one or both could go righty-heavy, which at times in the past has hurt Pomeranz, including notably last year where he had a 300ish point platoon split. I’ve liked Graveman for a while, and while his peripherals won’t drive you crazy with wanderlust — 7.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.78 difference between ERA and FIP — I just like how much tougher he’s been to hit this year than last. So far this season, he’s holding opposing batters to just a .518 OPS (.159/.232/.286), whereas last year hitters had a .761 OPS against him. He’s picked up a bit of velocity from last year, and has cut the usage on his fastball in favor of a few more sliders and cutters. Might be something to monitor; I don’t know for sure. The slider, cutter and rarely-used four-seamer have posted double-digit whiff rates for Graveman so far this season. Also, all of his pitches except the changeup (25 percent) have groundball rates in excess of 50 percent, for a total rate of 64.6 percent. I think there’s something here.