Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

Note: The two-game SDP-ARI series on April 25–26 will be played in Mexico City at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú. The park factors for this stadium are off the charts — it’s at a higher elevation than Coors Field without the enormous outfield dimensions of that ballpark. Start your Padres and Diamondbacks SPs at your own risk.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 2 Overview

The hottest hitters of the week were Andy Pages (.583 – 2 HR – 7 RBI), Yordan Alvarez (.471-3-8), Oneil Cruz (.360-4-10), Ben Rice (.421-3-9), CJ Abrams (.333-3-10) and Drake Baldwin (.310-2-10). Luisangel Acuña was the only player with four stolen bases. Four consensus first round hitters have yet to hit a home run (Bobby Witt Jr., Ronald Acuña Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Fernando Tatis Jr.). Second-rounders Cal Raleigh and Nick Kurtz have yet to homer as well. It’s a long season, they will be alright. Of the 30 starting pitchers who made two starts in Week 2, 10% (three) earned two wins – Clay Holmes, Michael Soroka and Davis Martin. I’ve tracked two-start pitcher data the last few seasons, and that 10% rate is on par with average week over the last three seasons, usually hovering between 6% and 18% most weeks. Be wary about chasing wins with below-average starting pitchers this early in the season. As the data shows, locking in two wins without crushing the ratios is hard enough for above-average starters. Be particularly careful with mediocre or below-average 2x SPs whose first start is on a Tuesday. Sometimes weather will push their start back until the following week. Occasionally, those pitchers are pulled out of the rotation or demoted if they had a rough first start. Oftentimes, that is for the better to avoid further fantasy ERA/WHIP damage.

As we did last week, let’s review the top trending acquisitions for Fantrax (waivers) and the NFBC 12-team OC (blind bid FAAB).

Roster % is the current percentage of leagues rostering the player; +/-  is the percentage of leagues the player was added in the previous week

% Added is the percentage of leagues that added the player; AWB stands for average winning bid

Jordan Walker has been a disappointment since his rookie season. Despite positive offseason reports about adjustments made at Driveline, Walker struggled in spring training, and was mostly overlooked by NFBC 12-team drafters. I won’t take a victory lap after 10 days, but I would like to mention that Walker is one of my highest rostered hitters this season. Walker was the only player with a triple-digit AWB. Relievers Riley O’Brien and Gregory Soto, and Seattle’s SP5 Emerson Hancock came close. Hancock is now rostered in each of the 240 OCs. O’Brien and Soto are still available in two percent of leagues.

Relievers

It’s the second week in a row where we’re discussing the Cardinals bullpen. Hopefully, it will be the last time. Riley O’Brien had the highest ADP this winter and spring among Cardinals relievers, though a calf injury kept from joining South Korea for the WBC and his ADP began to drop while the ADPs of JoJo Romero and Matt Svanson rose. Veteran Ryne Stanek snagged the first opportunity and closed the game out, though he walked three batters. He then stumbled in his second chance two days later, and O’Brien saved the day. Last week, O’Brien further distanced himself from the pack with three clean innings in three appearances, with two saves. Meanwhile, Matt Svanson has struggled mightily in middle relief. JoJo Romero would like step up for the occasional save opportunity when a southpaw is needed.

Gregory Soto is well known for throwing heat. He saved 30 games for the Tigers in 2022 and has spent the last few seasons as a lefty setup man who walks opposing batters at an above-average clip (over 10%). Last Tuesday, assumed Pirates closer Dennis Santana pitched the eighth inning and Soto handled the ninth, though the Pirates scored two runs in the top of the ninth, so it wasn’t a save opportunity. The Pirates beat the Reds 8-3 again on Wednesday. Santana didn’t make an appearance, but Soto did so again in the ninth; again it wasn’t a save opportunity since the Pirates scored four in the ninth. A similar setup occurred on Friday as Santana pitched a clean eighth and Soto came in to close out the Orioles in the ninth, though he gave up a solo shot to Gunnar Henderson. The Pirates continued their late-game heroics on Saturday. With the game tied 3-3 going into the ninth, Santana stepped in to pitch a clean ninth, then Nick Yorke walked it off with a double to give Santana the win. Soto is the more dynamic of the two, but is less stable because of history with free passes. It’s possible Soto earns more opportunities going forward, though it will likely remain a committee for now. The only thing that can hold Soto running away with the gig is Soto himself.

Paul Sewald was picked up in 21% of Fantrax leagues. Oddly, the Diamondbacks clear-as-day closer is only rostered in 61% of leagues, likely because of the inclusion of 10-teamers, points leagues, and roto leagues where holds are used in addition to saves. Tyler Alexander was scooped up in many leagues, though he is more of a spec-add. He has earned the Rangers only two saves, but is not the clear ninth-inning man. This was originally expected to be a two-man committee with lefty Robert Garcia and righty Chris Martin. Garcia hasn’t been great and Martin has been awful. Martin may move into a setup role, though the Rangers do still need a righty to step up. Perhaps that will be fireballer Cole Winn, who I picked up for $5 in a 15-team league on Sunday. Mark Leiter Jr. might be the first guy dropped from NFBC leagues next week if his struggles continue. He blew the save on Saturday and isn’t even locked into the A’s job. Bryan Baker hasn’t earned a save for the Rays yet, but has been pitching in the highest-leverage spots with Garrett Cleavinger on IL and Griffin Jax struggling.

Starting Pitchers

Hancock, Randy Vásquez and Lance McCullers Jr. were three of the most popular SP acquisitions of the weekend. Hancock followed up his masterful Opening Weekend performance (nine punchouts in six hitless innings) with a solid outing (6.2 IP – 6 H – 1 ER – 0 BB – 5 K) on Saturday, though the Mariners were robbed of three home runs by Angels Jo Adell and lost 1-0. Hancock lines up for a home start (Astros) this week, then a road start against the Padres. He should be quickly snagged in any leagues where he is available, 10-teamers included.

Randy Vásquez had some offseason buzz in deeper formats despite a ridiculously low 15% career walk rate. Folks paying attention may have noticed a slight velocity bump from Vásquez this spring, which he parlayed into two six-inning gems — an 11:4 K:BB with just eight hits and one earned run allowed against the Tigers at home and the Red Sox in Fenway. He has been throwing his four-seam fastball, sinker and slider 1-2 mph faster than last season and boasts an impressive 15.5% swinging-strike rate, albeit in a two-start sample. He now gets the pleasure of facing the Rockies at home, who will be heading over to San Diego from the high elevation of Denver.

The Bryce Elder Experience returns for another tour, likely to yet again tease us before destroying our ratios. Elder had a few good starts last season, but the overall body of work was horrific. His 5.30 ERA ranked sixth-worst among starting pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched. Could this turn into his breakout tour? His pitch mix and velocity remains the same and there’s nothing in his profile that portends massive improvement. He threw six scoreless against the A’s in his first start and seven scoreless with eight punchouts in Arizona on Saturday. It’s enough to lure us into starting him at home against the Guardians this week. Color me dubious, nevertheless.

Hitters

Among the top hitter adds on Fantrax, Mauricio Dubón, Joey Wiemer and Kyle Isbel feel like the ones most likely to find their way back to the free agent pool next week. Dubón has some appeal in deeper formats since he’s on a great offense and offers several positions of eligibility (on Fantrax he’s 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Wiemer had a hot start but he’s a short-side platoon bat and is a massive batting average drag. Isbel and his bottom-of-the-order crew have been producing the bulk of the runs over the last week, but it’s only a matter of days before the production shifts to the top and the middle of the Royals lineup.

Rookie infielder Jose Fernandez has cooled off since his 2-HR Major League debut last week, though with Carlos Santana banged up, Fernandez should earn more playing time going forward. In his first four career starts, he has already played first base, third base and DH. Fernandez is shortstop eligible in NFBC and would need to play 10 games at first or third to earn that eligibility. The Diamondbacks have some tough matchups this week facing the Mets and the Phillies.

Mark Vientos and TJ Rumfield are the two most intriguing and potentially valuable hitter acquisitions of the week. Vientos is off to a hot start, hitting .476 in 23 plate appearances. He is playing every day since Jorge Polanco is playing through an Achilles issue and is not ready to play the field yet. The Mets will have to get creative when Polanco can play first base again, but Polanco never had before this season and we don’t know if they’ll revert to their preseason plan. Rumfield isn’t hitting the ball hard (84.3 EV, 32% HH), but he is slashing .345/.406/.586 with two dingers and has the hold on the strong-side platoon at first base. He is a stronger stream option with the Rockies expected to face seven righties this week.

Drop of the Week

It’s hard to imagine Roki Sasaki sticking in the Dodgers rotation much longer after his shaky outing against the lowly Nationals on Sunday (6 ER, 3 BB in 5 IP). Sasaki’s four-seam fastball has averaged 97 mph, but it’s generated a 20% whiff rate and a measly 5.6% strikeout rate. Between his quotes and body language, it is clear that he lacks confidence on the mound. Manager Dave Roberts has been extremely patient throughout Sasaki’s rough spring, but a little reset in the minors or a trip to the minors may be in the cards. There are too many terrific alternatives available in 12-team leagues to continue to ride the Sasaki train, at least for now.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

First, a reminder that the first week of Ottoneu head-to-head leagues ends on April 5, which means you have 12 days to hit your games started cap. That means you’ve got a very long window to figure out which starters to use over the next week and half, and you may want to sit some of the riskier pitchers on your roster because you’ll have so many options on the table. The table below has my sit/start recommendations for the weekend and then there’s a second table below for the first normal week.

…

In early June, Alex Chamberlain graced us with a FanGraphs article about Brendon Little and a new concept called, “Implied Miss Distance”. Chamberlain, along with Baseball Prospectus writer/researcher Stephen Sutton-Brown, have done some great work utilizing Statcast bat tracking data, giving readers a new perspective on something like a swing and miss. But, back in early July, nearly a month after Chamberlain wrote about Little’s amazing knuckle-curve and it’s ability to make hitters whiff so hard that the outfield flag flutters, hitters stopped chasing the pitch. They were tired of looking silly and would no longer budge, allowing us to imply nothing:

If it wasn’t for Chamberlain’s article, I wouldn’t have known about Little or his knuckle-curve. But that’s why FanGraphs is the best, and when I recently watched the Blue Jays and their relievers’ deteriorating August WHIP, I heard the broadcasters mention Little’s falling O-Swing, or chase, rate.

If you only focused on Little’s knuckle-curve and the damage hitters have done to it in each month of the season, as you see in the table below, you wouldn’t think twice about the pitch’s performance:

Among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 knuckle curves in any of the last five seasons, Little’s 2025 wOBA of .188 is a fringe top 20 (25th) out of nearly 200 pitchers. Last season, Little got even closer to the top 20 mark (23rd) with a .186 wOBA on the pitch. But the broadcast never said anything about Little getting hit; they were focused on the lack of chase and, therefore, an increased BB%:

The chart above includes all of Little’s pitches. By isolating the O-Swing% to only his knuckle-curve, we can see that this overall drop in hitters’ chasing after Little’s offerings wasn’t solely because of them spitting at that specific pitch:

Thanks to the incredible addition of the Pitch-Type Split Leaderboard by the FanGraphs web team, we can now view the averages of individual pitches with ease. In 2025, among all pitchers who have thrown at least 10 knuckle curves, the league average O-Swing% currently sits at 35.5%. Little’s mark on the season is 36.5%. Rolling averages are different from season averages, and when Little’s chase rate rolling average dipped, so did the chase rolling average of his two other pitches:

Chart 4 – Rolling KC, FC, SI Chase% Comps

The straight red line indicates times when Little stopped throwing his cutter. It’s interesting to see how the line stopped running horizontally around the same time his knuckle-curve was at its worst. Unfortunately, it didn’t fill the chased pitch gap, and that 40-50 game mark fell around early to mid-July when Little’s WHIP went upwards:

Hitters weren’t getting boosted wOBA’s from Little’s lack of chase, but the 1.65 WHIP  (5.97 eqiuv. ERA) meant they were hitting his other pitches and walking more. I’ve been rambling on about Little for more than a few paragraphs now, and you’re probably waiting for the point. The point? The point is, pitchers need to adjust when a pitch that used to be chased no longer gets chased. They know that. We know that. Yet, it’s difficult to keep track of on the fan side of things. Pitchers will go about adjusting in all sorts of ways.

In Little’s case, it was really just a blip. If you go back up to the graph showing individual pitch chase rates, you may notice that Little’s usage of the cutter, even if it wasn’t chased, allowed the chase rate on his knuckle-curve to jump back up. Hitters did a great job of laying off Little’s knuckle-curve from around games 30 to 70, but excellence is when a pitcher can adjust in the moment to hitters. That’s robotic. So, let’s!…get!…robotic! For the remainder of this article, I’ll present a detection system that can run daily to capture when a pitcher’s most used fastball and most used secondary are in good or bad rhythm using individual pitch plate discipline metrics. Here’s an example from Little’s 40 to 80 game span:

The table is just a summary of what you see in Chart 4 above, but it’s designed to be placed in an automated system. If chase is up on one pitch and called strike is up on another, that’s good. If both pitches are falling to generate either chase or called strikes, well, that’s bad. Categorizing the balance between his sinker’s called strike rate and his knuckle-curve’s chase rate is as simple as creating rule-based logic:

conditions = [
(final_df['Rolling_Chase%']-3 > final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%']-3 > final_df['smart_median_cstr']),
(final_df['Rolling_Chase%'] <= final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%'] >= final_df['smart_median_cstr']),
(final_df['Rolling_Chase%']+3 < final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%']+3 < final_df['smart_median_cstr']), (final_df['Rolling_Chase%'] >= final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%'] <= final_df['smart_median_cstr'])
]
# Define the corresponding categories
categories = [
'Excellent',
'Ok (Adjusting)',
'Bad',
'Ok (Adjusting)'
]


Using the pitcher’s median values allows the categorization to detect improvements by each individual. I’m using “smart” medians to call the league median if a player has a zero value. That happens when they haven’t generated any chase or called strikes. If we use Brendon Little’s game logs to isolate his performance during those game periods from the table above, we see some pattern in a very small sample:

Little was at his best when he was in decent balance. This is the type of tracking that could be useful when streaming pitchers or looking for hot relievers. To test this out on a grander scale, I built a dataset that includes data from the last two months. This keeps the sample limited to more recent performance. Furthermore, I limited the data to only pitchers with more than 60 total pitches thrown in that time. Then, I took each pitcher’s most utilized fastball by pitch percentage and used it to calculate their called strike rate. I did the same with each pitcher’s most utilized offspeed, or non-fastball, pitch and used it to calculate their chase rate. I then calculated each pitch’s 15-game rolling rate, called strike for fastballs and chase for non-fastballs, and labelled their performance balance. Finally, I counted the number of days in which a player has been either good (balanced) or bad (unbalanced) and found the current status of players in both groups:

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The results focus on a pitcher’s most recent stretch. For example, Emilio Pagán has had one of his best K-BB% (22.4%) marks of his career this season, and in his last five games, it’s been even better (26.3%). He’s had recent success thanks to his four-seam and splitter working in unison.

Is there more to do? Always. I’ve only compared fastball called strike rates with offspeed chase rates, but all of these plate discipline metrics could be compared for balance. For example, it may be better to have a balanced swinging strike rate and chase rate. But, fundamental to this analysis is the assumption that it’s hard to get anywhere without a fastball and offspeed pitch that work well together. Does it mean anything? Is the balance even predictive of future success? Maybe, maybe not. What it certainly can do, as I believe I’ve exemplified here, is explain a pitcher’s success or lack thereof. If you are interested in doing this analysis on your own without spending hours calling and pinging pybaseball’s API, you can view pitch-specific plate discipline metrics on our new and totally awesome Pitch-Type Splits Leaderboards. Stay balanced, stay cool.

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. The final week of the season is upon us. Hitting your innings pitched cap in Ottoneu leagues is one of the most important ways you can maximize your roster to its fullest extent. And because it’s a soft cap, you can stack as many starters as you can on the day you’ll hit the cap, and you’ll receive all the points from those pitchers.

If you’re planning ahead, you might want to think about adding one or two of the following under-rostered pitchers for their start during the final weekend of the season if you can line everything up correctly. Here are 12 starters who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who have a good matchup this weekend.

Atlanta might have one of the easiest matchups this weekend as they host the punchless Pirates. Joey Wentz has been serviceable while eating up innings on Atlanta’s injury depleted pitching staff. He isn’t pitching deep into games but over his last two starts, he’s run a 4.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio with 12 Ks in nine innings.

Now that Payton Tolle has been shifted to the bullpen for the remainder of the season, Kyle Harrison has taken his place in the starting rotation. He looked excellent in his first start with Boston on Saturday, pitching six innings of one-run ball against the Rays while striking out five. His scheduled start this weekend comes against a struggling and desperate Tigers ballclub.

The Cardinals have posted a .289 wOBA over the last 14 days, 22nd in baseball. They’re pretty punchless with both Willson Contreras and Masyn Winn sidelined for the rest of the season. Colin Rea and Jameson Taillon have had their ups and downs this year but the matchup looks good enough to think about streaming them for their final starts of the season.

Like the rest of the Guardians pitching staff, Slade Cecconi has been excellent over the last few weeks. He’s allowed just two runs in 20.2 innings across his previous three starts with a 3.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cleveland will be fighting for a chance to sneak into the playoffs this weekend and the Rangers offense hasn’t been very good in September.

The Giants-Rockies series in San Francisco this weekend looks like it’s ripe for plenty of pitching points. Neither team has been very good offensively and the ballpark is a haven for pitchers. For Colorado, Kyle Freeland is probably the one starter worth looking at unless you want to risk starting Germán Márquez. For San Francisco, the options are two rookies in Kai-Wei Teng and Trevor McDonald. Neither has an impressive track record, but the matchup might be too juicy to pass up.

AJ Blubaugh has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen for the Astros down the stretch but he’ll likely get an opportunity to start against the Angels this weekend. He hasn’t allowed a run since a four inning bulk relief appearance back on August 23, a stretch of 17 scoreless innings. During this scoreless streak, he’s posted a very impressive 7.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has allowed just five hits.

Chad Patrick was a critical piece of the Brewers starting rotation earlier this year while they dealt with numerous injuries on their pitching staff. Once the team got healthy, Patrick was relegated to the minor leagues, but the injury bug has struck again and he’s now back with the team providing solid innings out of the rotation and the bullpen. Since being recalled in mid-August, he’s provided a 3.72 FIP in 21 innings while posting a very good 3.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Walker Buehler’s season has been a disaster but he’s at least looked serviceable with the Phillies since joining the club in September. You’ve really got to trust that Philadelphia identified and fixed whatever issues were plaguing him in Boston. At least the matchup against the Twins doesn’t look too bad.

Mike Burrows has been a frequent recommendation in this column this year. After some struggles in July and early August, he’s been absolutely fantastic down the stretch. Across his last six outings — two four starts and two bulk relief outings — he’s posted a 1.60 FIP and allowed five runs in 21.1 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio during this stretch has been an absolutely fantastic 6.0. He’s been piggybacked with another one of Pittsburgh’s young pitchers in each of his last three starts so he’s not getting very deep into games, but the high quality of his innings means he’s racking up the points in September.

Welcome to the final Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner of the season. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).