Sometimes the standings can play tricks on you. You see your team in first, but it’s an optical illusion. You are in seventh but are sure you have the best team.
In my experience, this has always been the domain of match-up leagues, but in my first go-round with the ottoneu FanGraphs Points Leagues, I am learning that I was missing a use case – and now I am hoping to take advantage to secure a championship with a very simple step.
I can’t claim “killing your babies,” although I really wish I could. And before you go marching off with a fungo bat looking for your first born, please, put the bat down. ‘Killing your babies’ is a term/phrase/philosophy I’m stealing from an editor I worked with who used it to describe something difficult in writing. That is, sometimes you just have to get rid of entire chapters of your book, despite the fact that you think they’re brilliant — because they really just don’t work anymore. I like to apply this principle to fantasy baseball.
Admit it — you fall in love with players. To see certain names on your roster just warms the cockles of your heart. Even the sub-cockles. But there’s a point at which carrying your favorite beau is actually hurting your chances at winning. And although I actually know some managers who would rather lose with players they like (because, they say, they enjoy “rooting for them” – BAH!) — I refuse to believe that the good readers here want anything other than the final prize. If a player isn’t bringing your team closer to a championship, it’s high time to get out the hatchet. Kill your babies.
Arguing for a potential rule chance in fantasy leagues can be an arduous process. The longer you’ve been playing in a league, the more difficult it becomes to move away from the status quo. When I first started getting into advanced stats, I began to realize the silliness of some traditional fantasy stat categories. Why were we still using pitcher wins and batting average as major components in our league, I asked myself. Wouldn’t it be better for our fantasy league to mirror real-life value? While this seemed like a no-brainer in my head, I knew it would be difficult to persuade my league to make some changes. From the FanGraphs After Dark chats, I also know that many of you are curious about moving to leagues that use more advanced stats. Here are a few suggestions on how to move away from a traditional fantasy set up.
I’m not having my best fantasy year — more on that another time — and so I found myself on the edge of my seat this last weekend, trying to make sure I made the playoffs in three leagues. (Two others I’m cruising in, and the remaining seven or so are roto). In one of the close head-to-head leagues, I was victorious and squeaked in on the last day. In another, I found out I had another week to make my case. And then there was that one. I won my weekly matchup 7-3 on the last week and felt good about it. The guy ahead of me in the standings lost his matchup 3-7. I went and did the math.
My team had a 118-98-4 record. His team had a 118-96-6 record. I was out, in the closest final standings situation I’d had in a head-to-head league.
Before I get cool story bro’ed, there’s more to this than just my fantasy team. There was at least one universal lesson hidden within all the pain.
You know it affects you. April, that is.
One or two of your players go out there and they really stink it up or they really light the world on fire and despite the fact that you’re a rational human being with faith in the sample size of the marathon instead of the sprint, reliance on our collection of nerds that try to preach patience when warranted — it messes with you.
We have the luxury now of looking at the stat line and having, most categories considered, stable numbers. So when Ryan Zimmerman falls off the face of the earth and then cortisone suddenly rejuvenates him into Clark Kent, well — we’ve still got a steady .280/.349/.451 which is just vintage Ryan Zimmerman.
On Monday, I took a look at the hitter BABIP leaders and tried to determine how sustainable those marks were for 2013. Today, I will check in on the bottom dwellers in the metric. This could be your initial list of undervalued hitters in next year’s fantasy drafts.
Over the last two seasons, Johnny Cueto’s ERA (2.38) has been lower than any other pitcher in the majors. His ERA is about one full point lower than his FIP (3.24) and xFIP (3.75). I will look at how he achieved the low ERA and if it can be maintained.
With the end of the season looming, it could be time for you to stream for steals. After all, a directed, focused attack on the leaderboard is all that’s going to work right now. There are categories that you won’t make any headway in. And if steals is one of the categories that is ripe with opportunity, picking the best matchups could net you what you need.
But there’s an easy way and a hard way. As there usually is. But in this case, the easy way may be just as good or better.
Let’s say that despite some evidence that Yu Darvish is being squeezed at the plate, you don’t have much hope for him to improve his control over the last six weeks of the season. That’s okay — at this point, we’re in the crucible. If you still have some time left before your deadline, it might be time to check the schedule closely. It might just change your mind about him.
I’ve often stated that I was going to run a fantasy baseball team simply by rotating players in my lineup coming off of terrible offensive weeks. I’ve never spent enough time to actually formulate a plan (and frankly, when I spend any time on it at all, the whole thing blows up in my face) but you know where I’m going with this. The idea is simply to play the regression game, for better or for worse.
Would it work? Probably not, because as a dedicated reader, you know there’s a lot more behind a BABIP than whether a ball happened to be a frozen rope right at the third baseman or if a ball Texas-leagued itself in the Bermuda triangle between the 5, 6, and 7. Or if you get your hits like this.
