Johnny Cueto: Sell High Candidate
Over the last two seasons, Johnny Cueto’s ERA (2.38) has been lower than any other pitcher in the majors. His ERA is about one full point lower than his FIP (3.24) and xFIP (3.75). I will look at how he achieved the low ERA and if it can be maintained.
It is easier to see why people could be leery of Cueto’s ERA over the past couple of seasons. His strikeout and walk numbers are not amazing. Here are some National League pitchers with better K and BB over the last couple of seasons.
Name: K/9, BB/9, ERA
Johnny Cueto: 6.6, 2.3, 2.38
Jordan Zimmerman: 6.8, 1.7, 2.86
Chris Carpenter: 7.2, 2.1, 3.45
R.A. Dickey: 7.4, 2.2, 3.07
Matt Cain: 7.7, 2.2, 2.86
Ian Kennedy: 8.0, 2.2, 3.44
The other 5 pitchers, which all had better K and BB values, averaged around a 3.00 ERA.
The big key for Cueto’s lower ERA is his 0.47 HR/9 rate. It is the best in the league over the past two combined seasons. His 51% GB rate is good, but the key to the low HR rate is his 6.0% HR/FB%. The 6.0% HR/FB% value is the same as Matt Cain. Matt is also known for having suppressing home runs, maybe with some help from his home park (help that Cueto can’t rely on). The difference between the two is that Cueto has a 30% fly ball rate and Cain’s FB% is at 43%.
Besides the HR suppression, he has maintained a good BABIP (0.272) over the two year span. He is generally able to keep the ball on the ground. Additionally, the Reds have the 5th highest UZR value (44 runs saved above average) over the same span to help turn those ground balls into outs.
One of the main ways a pitcher can have an ERA significantly lower than their ERA estimators is to pitch better with runners on base. Cueto is not one of those pitchers. Here are stats with no runners on base and once runners get on.
Bases Empty
2011: 2.4 K/BB, 0.6 HR/9, 0.254 BABIP
2012: 7.3 K/BB, 0.4 HR/9, 0.296 BABIP
Career: 3.1 K/BB, 1.1 HR/ 9, 0.286 BABIP
Base Runners
2011: 1.9 K/BB, 0.3 HR/9, 0.243 BABIP
2012: 1.9 K/BB, 0.9 HR/9, 0.284 BABIP
Career: 1.9 K/BB, 0.7 HR/9, 0.284 BABIP
While he sees some improvement in his HR/9 and BABIP with runners on base, the gains are not enough to over come the drop in K/BB. He doesn’t turn into superman once players get on base, and the jury is out on how much of a repeatable skill this is.
Johnny Cueto has had an amazing ERA over the past two seasons. He is pitching as well as any pitcher in the league, even if he regresses some. I just don’t see how he can maintain his ERA under 2.50 in the future. It may be the perfect time to sell high on him. It is tough to sell high, but I don’t expect him to pitch any better than he is currently over his career. He is at his peak and his value will only decrease. Take advantage of his value now.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Even if the HR suppression is real, his FIP is still in the low-3s, not the low-2s. If he had a low BABIP in both of the last 2 years, I would be more confident in the ERA-FIP difference. But whereas last year, his success came from a low BABIP, this year it’s been a high LOB%. If you go with his career LOB% and career BABIP with this year’s peripherals, he’s probably closer to a 3.00 ERA. Which is fantastic, of course.
I know this isn’t the time frame the author had in mind, but I feel like the best part of Cueto is that next year most people are going to take a similar view on Cueto’s 2011. They understand that something isn’t adding up and will try to avoid them. They say “oh, he’s outperforming his underlying stats”. Which is fine/correct. However, occasionally you’ll see the hate go overboard and it falls in your lap as a terrific value play. Look no further than Cain. NFBC’s ADP was 70s this year. Yahoo’s was in the 60s. This despite his having returned roughly 3rd/4th value in both 2011 and 2010.
Where do people think Cueto’s ADP is going to end up in 2013? 70s on yahoo, 80s on NFBC?
It’s important to note that Cueto’s control has improved significantly this season, so unless you think this is random variance, it’s not really appropriate to lump together his stats for the past few seasons.
Also, the perf. with runners on vs. not is difficult to evaluate unless you know the baseline — that is, what the average perf. diff. is for SPs va. what Cueto’s is.
If you can get an offensive stud for him in a keeper/dynasty, sure do it. But I just don’t think you’re going to get anything better for him than what he contributes. I got burned HARD earlier this season thinking Cueto looked like a regression/sell high candidate in May and I offered him straight up for Anibal Sanchez to a less saber-inclined owner in my league. At the time Sanchez had him bested or equaled in FIP/xFIP SIERA and I figured oooh, more K’s, better looking home park (the hype was big on Marlins new stadium as pitcher friendly then)…how can I go wrong? ugh.
Guys like Cueto and Weaver that outperform the estimators consistently tend to have very good O-swing%. Even if they are not getting the whiff they are getting guys to swing at balls and get themselves out *prepares to dodge stones thrown from the ardent DIPS diehards*
I am starting to think it is very lazy to just cite babip, LOB%, and HR/FB in deciding pitcher true talent. There is obviously something to the approach of the few that can consistently outperform the estimators that is not being captured in them. I believe that to be ability to induce swings out of the zone and perhaps contact out of the zone as well. Check out the league leaders in O-swing%: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=5&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=2,d
I’d like to amend one bit of that: Lazy is a strong accusation. It is facile and common to cite babip, HR/FB, and LOB% these days to point out regression candidates and identify players that are performing above their heads. The method has its merits but I am a firm believer that Johnny Cueto is one of those Matt Cain/Jered Weaver/Ryan Vogelsong types that can defy the estimators through approach and I believe his combo of very good O-swing% and O-contact% help to explain the gap between his ERA and FIP etc. as much as the “luck” metrics like babip, HR/FB, and LOB%. I’d never predict anyone to beat a 3.00 ERA but Cueto is a better bet to be around 3.00 than all but 10 or 15 pitchers in the game with what he’s shown for the last 350+ innings.
Looking at his Z-Swing and Z-Contact paints a clear picture that the guy has been able to induce weak contact all year, and his 2011 line looks pretty similar. Over the past two years he’s been within 1% of Matt Cain in O-Swing, Z-Swing, Swing, and Zone%, and within 2% of Z-Contact and SwStr%.
The biggest differences come from Cueto’s O-Contact which is 4.8% higher than Cain’s and Contact which is 2.5% higher than Cain’s. Most of that contact increase comes from outside the strike zone, meaning that the batter probably made poor contact with the ball. I’ve never heard of a pitcher pitching to contact outside the zone before, but Cueto is doing just that.
Some other notables with higher O-Contact numbers over the same two year span are Saunders, Vogelsong, Fister, Beurhle, Arroyo, and Colon.
Cueto may have been a sell high candidate a month ago, but now we’re at the point in the season where most leagues have already seen their trading deadlines come and go. Those owners that have decided to stick with Cueto are likely happy with their decision, regardless of the fact that he continues to outperform his peripherals.
How long does he have to “defy the odds” before he shakes the “regression candidate” label? Cueto is 25 years old and has made improvements every year since his big league debut. It would be hard to say he is going to be better in 2013 than he is in 2012, but after two full seasons of “outperforming his peripheral stats,” I’m not counting on self-implosion.
Looking at Cueto over a two year span is misleading. If you dig deeper you’d see that the big difference for Cueto 2012 is that he’s gone away from using his curveball and cutter and instead near doubled his changeup use from 9.1% last year to 17.9% this year.
The results? Cueto’s stats are mostly in line with career norms, except he’s dropped his BB/9 from 2.71 (2010 & 2011) to 1.96. The 6% HR/FB ratio is low but not absurdly so and a regression up a percent or two wouldn’t be disastrous by any means.
As for BABIP? Well 2011 was perhaps an aberration at .249 but for 2012 so far it’s a much more normal .293. Another caution combining seasons – The Reds UZR last year was a very high 43.8 but this year has fallen to just 0.20
Cueto may not be able to sustain a sub 2.50 ERA, but it sure looks like he’s a legitimate ace this year and for now I see no reason to think his adjustments aren’t for real and sustainable going forward. Keep him.
I’m done with this whole “Sell high on Cueto he is going to regress” thing. People have been saying this for almost 2 years now, SELL HIGH on CUETO, SELL HIGH ON CUETO!
Yet he continues to outperform his peripherals.
This is the type of “sell high” article that annoys me. Cueto is not the best pitcher in baseball, he’s only very good? Who doesn’t know that? Nobody in a competitive league is going to give you a return on Cueto that reflects an expectation that his ERA will stay in the low 2s. If anything, I would think his actual value exceeds his trade value, as there is still a lingering skepticism that he is a true ace, whereas by all indications, he is, even if his ERA is more likely to be in the low 3s than the low 2s going forward.
OMG! Huge regression! hahaha I love it, every year this guy whips you “experts” like rented mules.