On Mondays I write about daily fantasy strategy. On Wednesdays I’m supposed to write about closers. To be frank, I enjoy the topic I have been assigned for Mondays much, much more. I despise chasing saves (as I discussed a couple of weeks ago), and the guys doing the Bullpen Report really have relievers covered. But a commenter on one of my recent daily fantasy strategy posts asked me a question that involved both daily fantasy strategy and closers. The commenter wanted to know how viable it is to use closers in daily contests.

Closers are usually the cheapest players available in daily contests. In today’s contests on Draftstreet, the 34 cheapest players are relievers and only 2 relievers have a price tag above $3,000 when the average salary of all non-relievers is just over $6,000. The obvious reason is that relievers are the only players that we don’t know whether they’ll play before their game starts. That uncertainty drives the price down and is why I’ve ignored using closers to this point. But I may have been doing it wrong. Read the rest of this entry »

Jesse Chavez has been mentioned a lot on Fangraphs lately. Wiers mentioned him in the Roto Riteup yesterday. Cistulli dug a little deeper, and even added a few gifs later on in the day. Chavez’s start has been impressive, but I want to shed some light on Oakland’s rotation as a whole. The Athletics lost Jarrod Parker in spring training. A.J. Griffin will be back eventually, but his timetable is still a little uncertain. All told, the Athletics had to replace two pitchers that were firmly slotted into their Opening Day rotation. They’ve done that, and then some.

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Swinging strikes are half (more than half?) the battle. But you can use pitches for grounders, too.

Take Marco Estrada, for example. By whiff rates, his change (18.4%) is plus, but his curve (9%) is not. That’s okay! By grounder rate, his curve is plus plus (60.8%). That means he has two great secondary pitches and qualifies to be a Guy I Like.

In order to help you spot good grounder pitches, I’ve run the benchmarks on each pitch type below. Should pair nicely with a Cabernet and this post which shows the benchmarks for whiff rates per pitch type.

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April 15 is one of my favorite days of the year. And not because it’s tax day. It’s Jackie Robinson Day. It’s the day our sport comes together to honor Mr. Robinson and his magnificent achievements. Without his sacrifice and perseverance the game we love wouldn’t be nearly as special as it is today. So, today when you’re enjoying the game, think a little bit about Mr. Robinson.

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Well, last night was a dud. Chris Sale and Jose Fernandez got knocked around a bit. Andrew Cashner was phenomenal, and pretty much everyone I recommended performed rather poorly despite their match-up advantages. Here’s to hoping today is a little more fruitful.

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I now realize I kind of hate April. I want to do analysis, but the best I can do with the current data is note peculiar observations. Rather than pluck out more guys based on some tenuous indicator, let’s refresh ourselves on a few critical strategies.

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Brad Johnson, an author here at Fangraphs that you’ve probably read numerous times, wrote a little bit about luck the other day. It’s definitely more prominent in daily fantasy than the standard roto setups that we all normally play. Daily fantasy is fun. We get to draft a new team every day, perhaps win a little money, and scoreboard watch. However, it can also be so, so maddening.

For example, one night last week I entered a tournament on Draftstreet and missed winning anywhere from $300-$500 (depending on my ultimate finish) by 1.5 points. Brad Miller gave me zilch, but it wasn’t his fault. The combination of the terrible playing surface in Oakland and the error in judgement made by the groundskeepers, probably cost me. But, on the bright side, at least my lineup construction got me close in the first place?

To echo Brad once more, you’ll likely have nights where you barely lose. You’ll have a few nights where you play matchups and definitely have the edge, but someone of the Kevin Correia ilk will toss a shutout and completely blow up your chances. That doesn’t mean you’re terrible at picking a lineup; you just got a bad beat. Keep pushing and playing the right matchups and you can definitely make some money. And hopefully we can help you do that.

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We’re a little over a week into the season at this point, and while it’s still much too early to draw any meaningful conclusions from the games that have been played, we might as well have a little fun.

If you had asked me at the beginning of the season which teams I’d be inclined to choose opposing pitchers against. I likely would have chosen: Miami, Houston, Philadelphia,  & Minnesota. San Francisco wouldn’t have made the cut, but I wouldn’t have been terrified to plug in a pitcher against them. Here we are, after 8 or so games, and those offenses are ranked first, twenty-third , eighth, fourth, and second, respectively, in runs scored. At least I would have been correct on the Astros? I’m not sure that counts for much, though.

Going forward, I’m not betting on any of the five above offenses to continue producing at a high level, except for San Francisco. The Giants offense can be scary when Posey and Co. are hitting on all cylinders, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they were a well oiled machine for most of the remaining season. Although, I’m pretty sure Brandon Hicks won’t do his best Babe Ruth impression all season.

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A few weeks back, I talked a bit about holding or targeting players with season long injuries in ottoneu leagues. The idea in that piece was to treat injured players like Prospects – you can’t be sure when they will be back, nor can you be confident in how they will perform.

When players are underpriced (say you have a $1 Patrick Corbin), you might as well hold them (or target them in trades). But when prices rise to more typical levels (say a $10 Corbin), there may be a different path forward, particularly for pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery.

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The first weekend of all day viewing is upon us, and it’s only fitting that we’ll have an opportunity to see multiple aces in action.  It’s also fitting, and quite welcoming, that weather forecasts today look fantastic.  The only game with a better than nominal chance for rain takes place in Houston, which has a retractable roof, so yay. And thankfully to the new television rules, you can tune in to any out of area game today on MLB.tv.

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