As usual, we have a full slate tonight. Unfortunately, the odds of all of the games being played without a hitch is in question. Yankee Stadium (Pirates @ Yankees) has a an 80% chance of rain at game time, and 90% throughout the day. There’s also a 60% chance of rain in Colorado, but it does appear the weather will begin to taper off at/around game time.

A few more games – Cincinnati at Philadelphia, Detroit at Boston, Milwaukee at Chicago (NL) – could be delayed. So be mindful of those when you’re setting your lineups. The only game I’m strictly staying away from is Pittsburgh at New York (AL). And that’s a shame, because I really liked Neil Walker versus David Phelps.

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This is a question I’ve asked myself several times this year when preparing for daily fantasy contests. My assumption was that run scoring in doubleheader games might be lower because of fatigue and because it’s not uncommon for teams to start bench players in one of the two doubleheader games. But after a little digging, I found that assumption to be incorrect. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s an exciting day in New York. Young Mets’ prospect Rafael Montero is making his major league debut. Due to the fact that it’s his debut, he has no data in the chart below. I have no scouting chops whatsoever, but I’ll do my best to give you a little introduction to Mr. Montero.

Montero has put up quality numbers everywhere he has pitched. His numbers haven’t been quite as gawdy this season, but don’t worry too much. Las Vegas – and the PCL in general – is a terrible place to pitch.

Fangaphs’ own Marc Hulet wrote the following about Montero earlier this year:

The Scouting Report: Montero is a rare Latin prospect who has a high ceiling despite being a late bloomer and not signing until he was 20 years old. His strengths as a pitcher are his above-average command and control, which help all three of his pitches play up. He possesses a low-90s fastball, slider and changeup. He needs to stay on top of his pitches more and try to create more of a downward plane.

There you have it. Montero should be fun to watch, especially if he’s able to command his fastball well. I’m not using him today, thanks to the Yankee Stadium effect, but he could be a nice cheap play going forward.

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Well, I had some pretty good luck this weekend with some of the lineup choices I recommended. It was about time. It felt like it had been forever since I really had things fall the way I’d hoped.

I’m sorry if that comes off as arrogant. I’ve honestly just been so busy at work that I didn’t have the time to look up any cool facts or research any players somewhat intensively, so it seemed like a good time to toot my own horn a little bit. It may be a little bit before I feel confident enough to do it again, so feel free to let me know the next time I whiff badly in order to bring me down a peg.

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The first pitch is a complicated moment in any at-bat. The strike rate on the pitch is rising as pitchers pump it in the zone to get their advantage. And yet the swing rate on the pitch is diving as hitters try to be more patient in an era in which on-base percentage is praised. There’s evidence that this new approach isn’t any worse than the old-school approach — but that’s for baseball as a whole.

There have to be batters that are taking or swinging too much on the first pitch of an at-bat. If you’re a selective hitter, it makes sense to take. You’ll get a lot of 1-0 counts, and you’ll have a great sense of what’s a hittable pitch. If you’re more of an aggressive hitter that reaches often, maybe it makes sense to swing more often at strike one. You’ll avoid more 0-1 counts, and you’ll put some nice pitches into play.

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If you haven’t noticed by now, I usually like to spotlight a player who is struggling or excelling and shine a little light on why either is happening. Ian Kennedy will be our focus today. After being traded to San Diego by Arizona last season, Kennedy was pretty good (3.97 xFIP). And because of how he pitched down the stretch and the park he now calls home is so friendly, he was a target many people had going into draft season. Man, oh man, has he rewarded the owners (myself included) who either drafted him or picked up off of waivers.

Kennedy’s strikeout rate has spiked an incredible amount, and San Diego’s catchers may have a little to do with that. Both Yasmani Grandal and Rene Rivera grade out fantastic framers, according to the numbers. 25% of Kennedy’s strikeouts have occurred when a batter was caught looking. His highest percentage since his fantastic 2011 season. He’s caught opposing batters looking 14 times already, compared to 33 last season in  181 innings. Kennedy’s been able to leverage an increase in velocity, phenomenal catchers, and more ground balls into fantastic numbers so far. And I see no reason why he can’t continue it going forward.

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The end of the week is nigh. By the time the games start tonight, you’ll be home free. After a short schedule today, we’re back to full capacity. Fifteen games are on the slate today, and forecasts around the league are good, temperature wise. We’re aware that higher temperatures are associated with higher run scoring, unfortunately weather reports don’t stop there. There’s a good chance of a couple of games at least being delayed, or played in less than ideal conditions. Those games are (listed in order from greatest chance of precipitation): Minnesota at Detroit, Colorado at Cincinnati, Chicago (NL) at Atlanta, and St. Louis at Pittsburgh.

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Troy Tulowitzki has gotten a ton of press lately – rightfully so. He’s been fantastic. It’s almost hard to even see what other players have been up to thanks to the white hot blur in Colorado right now, but while looking away for a few seconds I noticed Brian Dozier. Dozier was pretty valuable last season in fantasy, and he’s on a quest to be even more valuable this season. The fact that he currently has 8 home runs and 11 steals draws most of the attention, but notice his walk rate. It’s a fantastic 16.3% – double his 2013 rate of 8.2%.

It feels like I’ve mentioned the Twins’ offense a lot in this space, but I can’t help it. I’m drawn to patience, and Dozier has had impeccable patience so far. His swing% sits at a paltry 35.4% – the seventh lowest rate in the league. He’s swinging less than he did last year, but his o-swing isn’t terribly different. It appears that Dozier is finally beginning to reap the rewards of his approach. He reaped them last year, although not nearly as much as he has so far in 2014.

ZiPS currently projects him to finish the year with 21 home runs, 27 stolen bases, and 100 runs. Those numbers – thanks to Kipnis’ injury and Cano’s slow start – might make him the best second baseman in fantasy baseball. Not bad a for mid-late round pick.

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Today is a day of returns, and one maybe significant debut. Clayton Kershaw returns from his month long DL stint. Obviously, it’s a big deal for fantasy players, but it might be an even bigger deal for the Dodgers. They’ve played well so far, but so have the Giants. The Dodgers have essentially been in survival mode due to the injuries their players have suffered. Today, they get their largest piece back.

Gavin Floyd returns from Tommy John surgery today, and the Braves will hope to catch lightning in a bottle with him the way they have with Aaron Harang this year and other pitchers in the past. Josh Tomlin also makes his return to the majors in Cleveland, delaying Trevor Bauer’s impending arrival even further. Thanks for nothing, Tomlin.

Robbie Ray and Blake Treinen square off in Washington. It’s Treinen’s first career start (3 relief appearances). The main attraction, though, is Ray. He’s making his major league debut against the Astros. Due to those reasons, neither will be featured in the chart below.

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Seriously, Jake Arrieta – fresh off the DL – struck out seven Cardinals over five and a third shutout innings. Yesterday’s stack of Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter, and Allen Craig were supposed to face off against a rusty, not very good Arrieta. They weren’t supposed to run into a buzzsaw.

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