Last night I partnered with Jason Collette for the LABR Mixed League Draft over at RTSports and aired on SiriusXM. We had the third pick in the 15-team league which uses the standard 5×5 categories and drafts a standard roster of 14 hitters and nine pitchers with six reserves. We didn’t need to have a full 23 before drafting reserves which can be interesting later in the draft when perceived talent at a position you’re full in ends up falling.

I’m going to take you through the draft with my thoughts. Keep in mind that we are a team so there was give and take. I’m going to point out some picks that were more Collette than me*, but that doesn’t mean I dislike them or anything. If I was vehemently against someone, I told him as did he with guys I’d suggest that he was way out on and then we moved on to another name. It’s rare that we have vastly different notions on a guy, so we came to a consensus pretty easily in most cases.

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Humans are really good at pattern recognition. It’s what makes us who we are as a species. In some ways, we’re too good with patterns. We see them even when they aren’t there. There is an important phrase in statistics that not all of us take to heart – correlation is not causation.

Today, I want to talk about potential false patterns. Put another way, when we pick a player to outperform his draft position, we should have a reason.

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Earlier in the week, I went over how I set up a for a draft (Part 1 and Part 2). Last night I participated in the draft set up by Howard Bender and his Mock Draft Army.  The pre-draft work I normally go through may seem a little tedious, but after the dust settled, I look to start the season in good shape.

The draft was fairly standard 5×5 league with 23 rounds and 15 teams. The draft participants consisted of nine industry experts and six non-experts. I will give some thoughts on my draft results (full results), my final roster and the projected finish.

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Well, it is finally time to move on and show how I finish setting up for a draft (Part 1). I was hoping the following article was going to be in two parts and have a little more detail and polish. Instead I am have been dealing with a fan error on my computer and a pile of oil under my car. Neither is really resolved. So with a borrowed computer, I will step through the rest of my procedure. Let me know if you have any questions.

Note: For reference, here is my spreadsheet I used to get the initial SGP values and has the rest of the sheets referenced in this article.

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Injuries and unanticipated performance decline are the twin banes of fantasy owners. It’s one thing if you’re reaching to the waiver wire to replace Josh Reddick. It’s another thing entirely if it’s Paul Goldschmidt going down for a couple months. Your chances to field a winning roster are hurt anytime you have to replace a key contributor from waivers.

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Over the last couple of weeks a few of my fellow writers here are FanGraphs have been going over some draft strategies. This week, I am going to step through my exact process for a draft. On Thursday night, I will be joining a few fantasy writers for a 15 team mock draft. Over the next few days, I will go through the exact process I normally use to set up for a draft. If one of the other drafters steals borrows my info, fine. This is actually more a way to show you my process for drafts.

First off, I will be following the procedure I set out last season in this three part series. There is quite a few good links in those articles for the procedures I use.

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Next Saturday at 11:59 pm ET is the ottoneu keeper deadline. It’s time to complete your trades and trim the fat from your roster. If you’ve followed my advice, you haven’t cut anybody since the end of the season. You can start making those moves soon.

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Draft season is fast approaching. That means that draft strategy will once again be a hot topic, as fantasy enthusiasts argue the merits of one philosophy versus another. But one particular debate threatens to make my head explode every single year. That is the notion of making your draft selection based on “best player available” (BPA) versus “position scarcity” (PS). The decision makes no sense to me. This is why.

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Missing on an early-round pick is one of the surest ways to ruin your fantasy season. Owners who wound up with Ryan Braun or Joey Votto last season probably had to get creative during the season in order to remain competitive in their leagues. While missing on a pick can be devastating, the first couple rounds of a draft are rarely stressful for the prepared owner. You have an idea of which players will be on the board when you pick, and it’s not too difficult to make a list of the top-20 players in your league. Even if you do that, different strategies may force you to change your mind. So, how do you prepare for the first few rounds of your draft?

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Last week, I tried to puzzle through something that has been bothering me – how depth affects replacement level. Consider outfield and shortstop. Last season, I might be looking at Josh Reddick and Adeiny Hechavarria as my first picks off the wire. I can do something with Reddick. In fact, I actually want to own Reddick. I like his offensive capabilities, even if he’s underwhelmed in recent performances. With Hechavarria, I would desperately seek a replacement.

The post wasn’t my best – I failed to communicate my message. My first gaffe was to create a pre-draft scenario. I probably should have gone with “in a vacuum” since my goal was to explore the possibility of trading $20 for $17. Despite my lack of clarity, the post did generate a lot of useful comments. Today, I’ll try to summarize and incorporate the dialogue.

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