The Late August Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Waiver Wire
Pitcher Preview
Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.
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With only about six weeks remaining in the regular season and most trade deadlines past, many may be scrounging for stolen bases as we come down the fantasy stretch. Trolling for speed on the wire is always a dicey proposition but even more so than in years past, with teams running less and less, more of a matter of philosophy than necessarily a dearth of talent.
Today, we’re going to look for speed targets according to the quality of the catchers faced, looking at the team whole, as well as the starting parts. ie. How many games will you have a good chance of facing a suspect catcher? Suspect, at least, when it comes to stolen bases and attempts allowed, as well as their rate of catching would-be thieves.
This brings me to my first large caveat: it’s not all the catcher’s fault. Stolen bases can be on the pitcher as much as the catcher but mixing in who is on the mound goes beyond the scope of this piece. When streaming for stolen bases I want my guys to have as many chances as possible of facing a catcher who has been run on a lot and hasn’t been successful at stopping them.
I judged the catchers solely on the results, looking at their percentage of runners caught (as CS%, as well as CS% percentile) and their percentile rank in attempts per nine innings and stolen bases per nine innings. How much are teams running when you’re in the game and how successful are you at stopping them? K.I.S.S. Read the rest of this entry »
The Self-Evaluation Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Nicklaus Gaut
Field of Dreams
Strategy Section
Self-Evaluation
Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
Starting Pitchers who could be limited
Final Month Fades
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Following a 2020 season in which only 40 starting pitchers reached at least 60 IP, the general worries that starters would be limited this year, have yet to be actualized. Granted, they still have two months to do so but my concerns have at least been tamped down on veterans with track records of high usage. However, pitchers with previously middling maxs are still worrying, particularly as more teams drop out of contention, and young starters still carry the same concerns as they do in the second half of any season.
However, whether looking at veterans or rookies, fantasy managers must try to set expectations for their pitching staff as we head into the fantasy dog days. Even if trusting what management says tends to be an exercise in futility. But you need to at least try to have a handle on who you can depend on the rest of the way, if only to curse their names when they do the opposite.
One if by shutdown, two if by bullpen…The limits are coming! The limits are coming! Read the rest of this entry »
The Engagement Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Patrick Davitt
Strategy Section
FAAB / Waiver Wire / Roster Churn
Category Movement
Engagement
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There are many strategies to employ during a fantasy baseball season and this year I’ve been trying a few new ones. The one strategy that has worked out tremendously well for me so far has been based on Jeff Zimmerman’s early-season analysis of xwOBA’s in-season predictive power. I detailed a practical way to apply his findings to waiver claims in shallow leagues. I’ve also decided, though the decision was sort of decided for me, to punt one category. Some of my own early-season research showed that punting one category can be fine as long as you have a few maxed-out category scores. However, one strategy that I’ve never employed is the usage of platoon splits. Two players, acting like one, and being placed in your lineup as if you were a real manager sounds pretty cool. But, I play in a shallow, 10-team, ESPN roto-league and I wanted to see if this strategy can work in such conditions. Here’s a little case study to see how this strategy would have played out for me in 2021 if I had started at the very beginning of the year and stuck with it until now.
This is a fun time of year for fantasy prospects. Guys are getting traded left and right, creating conversations about players like Ezequiel Duran who otherwise might have been ignored (0.291% rostered in Ottoneu right now and being auctioned in one league). Those trades are also opening up space for other players to get a shot – might we see Andres Gimenez back in Cleveland soon?
At the same time, the players selected in the draft a few weeks back are starting to sign, making them eligible to be added in Ottoneu leagues. It’s no surprise that the current leader in live auctions right now (he is being added in nearly 60 leagues) is Jack Leiter, who was just added to the Ottoneu player pool Wednesday afternoon. Henry Davis has been added in more than 10% of leagues. Marcelo Mayer has been added in nearly 7% of leagues. The tough call is what to do with these guys if they are free agents or up for auction in your leagues.
The Sabermetrics Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Bill James
Personal History
Sabermetrics Section
Injury Guru Trivia of the Week
Baseball Across the Decades
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I won’t claim to know as much about Bitcoin as some of my peers, but I know enough to determine that winning $100K of it would be great. For the more crypto-skeptical baseball fans out there, MLB and their new contest sponsor, FTX, are offering cold, hard cash as an alternative reward for their new promo contest. The challenge? Guess who will hit the longest home run of the rest of the season, the distance in feet of that home run, and the type of home run (solo, 2-run, etc.,). Let’s take a look at the details of the Moon Blast contest and see if our more enlightened way of thinking can help make a prediction.
The trade deadline is this Friday and could be an absolute banger. It is shaping up to be a seller’s market with a very clear set of buyers and sellers and the latter having some legitimate players to move that could alter the playoff picture substantially. There is understandable excitement related to the players who will be moved, but I want to focus on the holes their departures will open as that can often create some interesting buying opportunities for us in the fantasy realm, often at a discounted price, too. Here are six hitters who could deliver some fantasy upside if a spot opens for them.
Brendan Rodgers/Garrett Hampson | OF/2B, COL – Potential Trade: Trevor Story
Story has to get traded, right? RIGHT?! I would say the Rockies can’t possibly botch it, but we know that’s not true. They’ve shown time and again that they are capable of botching anything. His departure would likely change the fate of two guys (assuming they don’t get a shortstop back in return) as the 2B platoon of Rodgers and Hampson could both become full-timers.
Both are markedly better against lefties, but the extra volume alone can sometimes be enough to drive value, especially for Rockies given their home park. Speaking of, they have a dead even 28-28 home-road split post deadline. Well, technically that’s not 100% true, but I’m thinking more about weekly leagues and standard Sunday pickups so starting next Monday it’s 28-28.
