The September Prospects Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: James Anderson

Strategy Section

Prospects

• Guaging which teams will showcase prospects
• Positions and service time manipulation
• The affect of COVID in 2020 on prospects in 2021
• Will there be another Randy Arozarena in 2021?
• Impact prospects for 2022

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Prospect Discussion

• Bobby Witt Jr.
  • How will the KC Royals allign their defense in future years?
• Julio Rodriguez
• Jarred Kelenic
• Adley Rutschman
  • Catchers – High prospect failure rates
• Keibert Ruiz
• Jo Adell
• Jarren Duran
• Alex Kirilloff
• Max Meyer
• Nolan Gorman

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The Late August Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.

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• Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY)
• Reuven Guy (@mlbinjuryguru)
• Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod)

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With only about six weeks remaining in the regular season and most trade deadlines past, many may be scrounging for stolen bases as we come down the fantasy stretch. Trolling for speed on the wire is always a dicey proposition but even more so than in years past, with teams running less and less, more of a matter of philosophy than necessarily a dearth of talent.

Today, we’re going to look for speed targets according to the quality of the catchers faced, looking at the team whole, as well as the starting parts. ie. How many games will you have a good chance of facing a suspect catcher? Suspect, at least, when it comes to stolen bases and attempts allowed, as well as their rate of catching would-be thieves.

This brings me to my first large caveat: it’s not all the catcher’s fault. Stolen bases can be on the pitcher as much as the catcher but mixing in who is on the mound goes beyond the scope of this piece. When streaming for stolen bases I want my guys to have as many chances as possible of facing a catcher who has been run on a lot and hasn’t been successful at stopping them.

I judged the catchers solely on the results, looking at their percentage of runners caught (as CS%, as well as CS% percentile) and their percentile rank in attempts per nine innings and stolen bases per nine innings. How much are teams running when you’re in the game and how successful are you at stopping them? K.I.S.S. Read the rest of this entry »

The Self-Evaluation Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nicklaus Gaut

Field of Dreams

Strategy Section

Self-Evaluation

• For teams in contention
  • Looking at categories to make gains
• For teams not in contention
  • Evaluating what went wrong
  • Following player hot streaks in August/September
  • Trying different strategies

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

• Most innings pitched in 2021

Starting Pitchers who could be limited

• Chris Bassitt
• Julio Urias
• Casey Mize
• Alek Manoah
• Trevor Rogers
  • FIP vs. xFIP

Final Month Fades

• Hitters to Fade
  • Is Nelson Cruz a Hall of Famer?
  • Francisco Lindor vs. Jose Iglesias vs. Amed Rosario
• Pitchers to Fade

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Following a 2020 season in which only 40 starting pitchers reached at least 60 IP, the general worries that starters would be limited this year, have yet to be actualized. Granted, they still have two months to do so but my concerns have at least been tamped down on veterans with track records of high usage. However, pitchers with previously middling maxs are still worrying, particularly as more teams drop out of contention, and young starters still carry the same concerns as they do in the second half of any season.

However, whether looking at veterans or rookies, fantasy managers must try to set expectations for their pitching staff as we head into the fantasy dog days. Even if trusting what management says tends to be an exercise in futility. But you need to at least try to have a handle on who you can depend on the rest of the way, if only to curse their names when they do the opposite.

One if by shutdown, two if by bullpen…The limits are coming! The limits are coming! Read the rest of this entry »

The Engagement Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Patrick Davitt

Strategy Section

FAAB / Waiver Wire / Roster Churn

• Distribution of FAAB dollars throughout the season
  • Does current standing matter?
• Does player aquisition strategy alter in the month of August?
• Injury rates 2021 vs. 2020 vs. 2019
• Sholud we churn our rosters more or less in the final two months of the season?
• How to decide when to cut a player in the final two months
  • Jacob deGrom case study
  • Other specific player examples

Category Movement

• Categories that are more volatile late in the season (more movement) & categories that are less volatile
  • Why ratio categories are highly volatile

Engagement

• Can you win a league if you are towards the bottom in August?
• Do you have a moral / ethical obligation to play hard until the very end in fatnasy baseball?
  • What if you play in many leagues?
• Is it right to divert time spent away from leagues that you cannot win?
• Is there an ethical difference between neglecting to set a valid lineup vs. foregoing waiver wire pickups?
• Is there an obligation to ensure that your fantasy team reaches the minimum inning requirements?
  • How should a league commissioner interviene if teams are not on pace to reach the IP threshold?
• Creating incentives to increase league engagement down the stretch

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There are many strategies to employ during a fantasy baseball season and this year I’ve been trying a few new ones. The one strategy that has worked out tremendously well for me so far has been based on Jeff Zimmerman’s early-season analysis of xwOBA’s in-season predictive power. I detailed a practical way to apply his findings to waiver claims in shallow leagues. I’ve also decided, though the decision was sort of decided for me, to punt one category. Some of my own early-season research showed that punting one category can be fine as long as you have a few maxed-out category scores. However, one strategy that I’ve never employed is the usage of platoon splits. Two players, acting like one, and being placed in your lineup as if you were a real manager sounds pretty cool. But, I play in a shallow, 10-team, ESPN roto-league and I wanted to see if this strategy can work in such conditions. Here’s a little case study to see how this strategy would have played out for me in 2021 if I had started at the very beginning of the year and stuck with it until now. 

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This is a fun time of year for fantasy prospects. Guys are getting traded left and right, creating conversations about players like Ezequiel Duran who otherwise might have been ignored (0.291% rostered in Ottoneu right now and being auctioned in one league). Those trades are also opening up space for other players to get a shot – might we see Andres Gimenez back in Cleveland soon?

At the same time, the players selected in the draft a few weeks back are starting to sign, making them eligible to be added in Ottoneu leagues. It’s no surprise that the current leader in live auctions right now (he is being added in nearly 60 leagues) is Jack Leiter, who was just added to the Ottoneu player pool Wednesday afternoon. Henry Davis has been added in more than 10% of leagues. Marcelo Mayer has been added in nearly 7% of leagues. The tough call is what to do with these guys if they are free agents or up for auction in your leagues.

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The Sabermetrics Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Bill James

Personal History

Sabermetrics Section

• How has sabermetrics changed over the years?
• What metric is Bill James most proud of creating?
  • Bring your dog to the park day
• Ariel’s suggestion for Bill James’ Runs Created formula
• Undervalued statistics in today’s game
• The best defensive metrics to use
• Closer by Committee in baseball today
• Beating the Shift
• Similarity Scores

Injury Guru Trivia of the Week

• Career batting averages – Ariel vs. Bill

Baseball Across the Decades

• Greatest Players of all time
  • Hitter – Babe Ruth
  • Pitcher – Roger Clemens
• How would Babe Ruth & past baseball players stack up against 2021’s major leaguers?
• Expansion in Baseball

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I won’t claim to know as much about Bitcoin as some of my peers, but I know enough to determine that winning $100K of it would be great. For the more crypto-skeptical baseball fans out there, MLB and their new contest sponsor, FTX, are offering cold, hard cash as an alternative reward for their new promo contest. The challenge? Guess who will hit the longest home run of the rest of the season, the distance in feet of that home run, and the type of home run (solo, 2-run, etc.,). Let’s take a look at the details of the Moon Blast contest and see if our more enlightened way of thinking can help make a prediction.

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