It’s been said that the good ones copy and the great ones steal. With that in mind, I’m stealing a cue from Mr. Podhorzer, who looked at a pair of players owned in less than 10% of leagues earlier this week. But since my two fantasy beats this season are Deep-League Waiver Wire and American League Outfielders, I figured, Why not combine the two?
What was that they say about those who steal again?
Every year, a number of starting pitchers get drafted higher than they should because of their successful performances the year prior. Call me crazy, but I tend to avoid these pitchers. Why? Because the expected cost outweighs the projected output. Instead, I set my sights on pitchers still on the upswing, and even a few coming off disappointing seasons who are likely to bounce back.
Not every pitcher can be Roy Halladay or CC Sabathia, guys who can actually sustain their peaks across multiple years. But that doesn’t stop owners from latching onto a pitcher following a big season, or even an outlier season, hoping that said pitcher has established a new talent level. In most cases, though, the wave has already crested.
This strategy gets tricky because it requires: 1) distinguishing between pitchers still capable of better and those about to take a step back; and 2) accepting that there are simply some pitchers you won’t own come draft day. The five below fall into that category for me this year.
While most fantasy owners fall in love with players who broke into the elite a year ago (like Carlos Gonzalez and Andrew McCutchen) or get carried away with unearthing the next didn’t-see-that-coming talent, the best way to find cheap value on draft day is to keep tabs on vets whose fantasy reps took a hit following a down year. Like these three NL leftfielders with power-hitting track records.
On Thursday, Mike rolled out our long list of reliever rankings which included many familiar names from seasons past, some of them dating back to the 90’s. But there are some new arms vying for the fireman role this season and some of them have tremendous promise.
Earlier today, Erik rolled out our Shortstop rankings and tiers. For kicks we should reveal the individual lists we used for our combined rankings as the variability is remarkable, and it demonstrates just how fluid this position is. To be sure, shortstop is my biggest conundrum headed into 2011 as it seems there isn’t a tremendous amount that differentiates the majority of these guys after you get out of the second tier. So here’s to trying to mine some risers from the list that might provide a little something added to a middling or low draft pick at what is shaping up to be an awfully uninspiring inventory at the 6.
On Thursday, Jeff rolled out our composite second base rankings and we’ve since looked at Risers, Top Targets, and the bargain bin. All three of the gents featured on today’s “Fallers” list are clustered in our third tier, yet all of them have easily performed like tier 1 talent at least once in their career. Let’s peek at at why they’re not getting more respect from us. Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday, we rolled out our third basemen rankings for the upcoming season, and although the list gets awfully dicey after the first couple of tiers, there are some names whose stock is up headed into the draft.
Since Howard nicely summarized Pablo Sandoval’s horrific 2010 on and off the field, I’ll leave him off the list, although I’d say he is certainly on several bounce-back radars.
On Thursday, we rolled out our First Base rankings and while it’s commonly referred to as a deep position, the bottom isn’t necessarily never ending. There are some gentlemen on the list that you might want to dodge on draft day, unless of course the price is just too good. With that in mind, here are your preseason First Base Fallers:
Butler headlines this list primarily due to unmet expectations. Butler was being drafted in the 75-79 range in 2010 as he was a rising star but after disappointing in his power and run producing output, his ADP going into 2011 appears to be in the 85-92 range (unless you’re Yahoo! and his ADP is inexplicably 66). Many managers have lost a little patience with him despite his contributions in the batting average category. He’s certainly not a dud, as the kid only turns 25 in April and he’s actually got a solid resume to date plus the history of a pretty fantastic hitter in the minor leagues.
Jose Reyes, Mets
After missing the majority of the 2009 season with a hamstring injury and then being reduced to spectator status with a thyroid condition in early April of 2010, Reyes was understandably rusty at the plate. The switch-hitting speedster posted a .285 wOBA and a .088 Isolated Power in April, and slogged through a May in which he put up a .311 wOBA and a .112 ISO. But in June, Reyes has heated up — a .403 wOBA and a .220 ISO. His season line has climbed to .279/.323/.420, with a .335 wOBA. The 27-year-old has also swiped 19 bases in 21 attempts.
Reyes’ turnaround has been fueled by fewer swings on outside pitches, more contact and a sinking infield/fly ball rate:
ZiPS projects a .288/.348/.446 rest-of-season line, with a .359 wOBA. Those who gambled on Reyes over the winter (and held onto him after his rough start) are being handsomely rewarded.
Trevor Cahill, Athletics
Last season, Cahill was jumped to the big leagues as a 21-year-old with minimal experience above A-Ball. As such, he kicked and flailed to keep his head above water at the highest level. Cahill finished his rookie year with 4.53 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, a 47.8 GB% and a 4.92 xFIP. While no stud against same-handed hitters (4.53 xFIP), Oakland’s second-round pick in the 2006 draft was lashed by lefties for a 5.31 xFIP.
Given Cahill’s impressive minor league resume (including a career 9.9 K/9 and a 58.6 GB%) and prospect pedigree (Baseball America ranked him as the 11th-best prospect prior to ’09), he was expected to make considerable progress with more major league experience. And he’s on his way — in 2010, Cahill has whiffed 6.24 batters per nine innings, walked 2.88 per nine and has induced grounders 53.3%. His 4.02 xFIP (3.88 versus lefties) isn’t close to his pristine 2.88 ERA (he’s not gonna keep that .235 BABIP all season long), but Cahill is showing across-the-board improvement.
His swinging strike rate is 7.9%, up from 7.4% last season (8.3% MLB average). Cahill’s contact rate has decreased to 81.1% from 82.1% in ’09 (81% MLB average), and his outside swing percentage is comfortably above the big league average after coming in well below that level as a rookie. He got batters to chase off the plate just 21.6% last season (25.1% MLB average), but opponents have gone fishin’ 29.2% in 2010 (28.4% MLB average).
According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Cahill has marginally increased the whiff rate on his fastball (4.9% this season, compared to 4.6% in ’09 and the 6% MLB average). But his secondary stuff is fooling hitters more — Cahill’s getting whiffs 14% of the time that he spins a breaking ball, up from 7.3% last year and above the MLB average of about 13%. His changeup is getting a whiff 15.9% in 2010 after posting a 13.6% rate in ’09 (12.6% MLB average). Why is this guy still on the waiver wire in 60% of Yahoo leagues?
Todd Helton, Rockies
We chronicled Helton’s power outage last month, and things haven’t improved for the 36-year-old since then. He’s got a .250/.344/.318 triple-slash on the season, with a .068 ISO. That’s Jason Kendall/David Eckstein territory there. He has been bullied by fastballs — Helton hit heaters for a +0.99 runs/100 value from 2007-2009, but he’s down to -0.62 per 100 this season. Once you adjust for the Coors assist that Helton receives, his hitting has been 20 percent worse than the league average (80 wRC+). It’s no surprise, then, that the singles-hitting first baseman has been sub-replacement-level (-0.2 WAR).
Trying to figure out whether a player is “done” is often a fool’s errand — see David Ortiz — but Helton’s hitting with little authority, struggling to fend of fastballs and putting the ball in play more to left and center field, with ghastly results. At the very least, it’s not looking good.
Brad Bergesen, Orioles
The 24-year-old sinker/slider pitcher shouldn’t have been expected to replicate his 2009 season, as there was nearly a full run separating his ERA (3.43) and xFIP (4.42). Bergesen garnered a reputation in the minors for pounding the strike zone (1.6 BB/9 on the farm) and keeping the ball down (52.6 GB%), and he continued to limit free passes and fly ball balls in the majors (2.34 BB/9, 50.1 GB% with the O’s in ’09). However, Bergesen missed few bats in the minors (5.8 K/9) and whiffed just 4.74 per nine during his rookie year. His BABIP (.289), strand rate (75.2%) and home run per fly ball rate (8.3%) all figured to climb in 2010.
However, instead of regressing to a mid-four ERA-type pitcher, Bergesen has been the AL’s answer to John Lannan this season. In 58 innings, Bergesen has just 2.17 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, a 50.2 GB% and a 5.90 xFIP. That K rate is by far the lowest in the majors among pitchers tossing 50+ frames. His contact rates were high last season, but they’re untenable this year given just average control.
Bergesen is getting swinging strikes 3.4%, compared to 6.4% in ’09. His overall contact rate has spiked to 92.2% from last season’s 85.5%. On pitches within the strike zone, batters are connecting an astounding 97.7% (91.2% last year, 88% MLB average). That’s the highest rate of in-zone contact in the majors. Bergesen’s fastball didn’t get many whiffs last year (3.5%), but that figure is down to 2.4% this season. His slider (12.2% in ’09, 8.3% in ’10) and changeup (6.9% in ’09, 3.8% in ’10) are also getting fewer whiffs. With good control, ground ball tendencies and a mediocre K rate, Bergesen can be of use to the O’s. With OK control, ground ball proclivities and an abysmal K rate, he’s a batting practice pitcher.
Max Scherzer, Tigers
Max was a mess prior to a mid-May demotion to Triple-A Toledo, but he has been dealing since his vociferous, 14 K return to the majors on May 30th. Scherzer’s fastball velocity has climbed:
Scherzer’s averaging 94.1 MPH since his recall, compared to 91.8 MPH prior. What’s interesting is that his increase in whiffs comes largely from his secondary stuff — the whiff rate on his fastball has improved (6.3% since his recall, 5.2% before his demotion; 6% MLB average), but his slider whiff rate is up to 20.3% from 14% (13.6% MLB average), and his changeup whiff rate has climbed to 20.4% from 10.5% (12.6% MLB average). It’s entirely possible that the increased zip on Scherzer’s fastball makes his slider and change more effective — pitches don’t exist in a vacuum, independent of one another.
Overall, Scherzer now has 8.26 K/9, 3.33 BB/9 and a 4.17 xFIP in 73 innings pitched. However, his early season struggles and ugly 5.67 ERA (the result of a .332 BABIP, 64.1 LOB% and a 14 HR/FB%) have scared off many owners — Scherzer is rostered in just 34% of Yahoo leagues. ZiPS projects a 4.07 FIP with 8.59 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9 for the rest of 2010. This is a great buy-low opportunity.
Chris Young, Diamondbacks
Young had a disastrous season at the plate in 2009, batting .212/.311/.400 with a .314 wOBA and an 85 wRC+. Those looking for a silver lining pointed to Young’s career-high 11.8% walk rate, solid power (.187 ISO) and low .268 BABIP. However, he whiffed 30.7% and basically earned that low BABIP due to an absurdly high infield/fly ball rate. Young popped the ball up 22.4% last season, nearly tripling the major league average. Those weakly hit infield flies are gimme outs, and help explain why Young’s expected BABIP was just .276.
This season, Young has cut his IF/FB rate to a much more palatable 9.3%, and his punchout rate is down to 23.6%. He’s hitting .278/.341/.483 in 288 PA, good for a .366 wOBA and a 122 wRC+. As an added bonus, Young has already swiped 12 bases this season and is on pace for a career-best 28 SB.
While Young has certainly been better offensively this season, we probably shouldn’t expect him to suddenly keep this pace from here on out. His BABIP so far is .319, compared to a .307 xBABIP. And, while the big drop in his pop ups is a great sign, infield/fly ball rate doesn’t become reliable until a batter takes about 500 trips to the plate. ZiPS projects .247/.321/.456 for the rest of the season, with a .343 wOBA and a .285 BABIP. Young could best that line if he can keep on limiting the infield flies.
Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
Injuries have been a problem for the former Hiroshima Toyo Carp ace since he came stateside in 2008 (shoulder tendinitis in ’08, an oblique strain, a sizzling line drive to the head and a herniated disc in his neck in ’09), but he’s been highly effective when on the mound — his career xFIP is 3.79.
This year, Kuroda’s got 7.13 K/9, 2.45 BB/9 and a 3.68 xFIP in 88.1 frames, keeping the ball down with a 53.5 GB% to boot. The 35-year-old righty is going to his 92-93 MPH fastball less often this season — about 52%, compared to 66% in 2009. In place of the heater, he’s relaying more on a mid-80’s slider/cutter (about 37%) while also mixing in high-80’s splitters (11%). All of his pitches are getting more whiffs than the big league average — 7.7% with the fastball, 14.4% for the slider and 18.1% for the splitter (16.1% MLB average). Kuroda’s still on the waiver wire in 23% of Yahoo leagues, but he’s a rock-solid starter when healthy.
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays?
Demoted and then DFA’d by the Jays, Encarnacion’s future in Toronto is up in the air — another team could claim him and what’s remaining of his $4.75 million salary (he’s arbitration-eligible next season, too), though GM Alex Anthopoulos doubts that’ll happen.
The 27-year-old Encarnacion, picked up as part of the Scott Rolen swap last summer, is having a bizarre 2010 season. In between a DL stint for a right shoulder injury, he has hit .200/.298/.467 in 141 PA, with a .267 ISO and a wacky-low .167 BABIP.
During his big league tenure, Encarnacion has a .257/.339/.449 triple-slash, a .344 wOBA and a 107 wRC+. He has drawn walks at a slightly above-average rate (9.3 BB%), and he’s got power (.193 ISO). He has generally had a below-average BABIP because he pops the ball up often (16 IF/FB%). Encarnacion is not a lost cause at the plate, but the problem lies on the other side of his game.
The former Red has proven to be a ghastly defender at third base, with a career -12.4 UZR at the position. He could revive his career if he proves to be a capable corner outfielder, but he’s likely going to be a drag defensively at whatever position he mans, and his bat isn’t good enough to pick up the slack. DH’s with modestly useful lumber don’t stick around the majors.
Bronson Arroyo, Reds
On the surface, the guitar-strumming righty with the high leg kick is having another season of innings-munching adequacy — a 4.53 ERA in 93.1 frames. However, Arroyo’s peripheral stats aren’t music to anyone’s ears. He’s got 4.63 K/9, 3.57 BB/9 and a 5.20 xFIP. He’s not putting many pitches within the zone (46.1%, compared to a 47.2% MLB average) and his contact rate has climbed to 85.6% (it was 84.7% last season and around the 81% MLB average from 2006-2008). Remember how Scherzer is owned in just 34% of Yahoo leagues? Well, Arroyo’s 6-3 record has earned him a roster spot in 36% of leagues.
Unless Arroyo picks up the pace K-wise and displays his characteristically quality control, he’s going to start getting hit harder — he’s not likely to keep a .266 BABIP or a 7.1 HR/FB% all season long.
Ian Desmond, Nationals
Washington’s third-round selection in the 2004 draft is falling short of pre-season expectations. Both CHONE (.265/.326/.412, .324 wOBA) and ZiPS (.270/.334/.388, .325 wOBA) gave forecasts of league-average hitting, but Desmond currently sits at .256/.290/.388, with a .296 wOBA.
A major reason for the 24-year-old’s sub-.300 wOBA is his huge strike zone. Desmond’s swinging at 34.5% of pitches thrown outside of the zone (28.3% MLB average), which has often put him in the pitcher’s clutches. The Nats’ shortstop has a 63.5 first pitch strike percentage, far exceeding the 58.4% big league average. Not surprisingly, Desmond’s walk rate is just 4.1%. He’ll need to show a better eye to avoid being a liability at the plate.
