Stock Watch: June 22nd

Stock Up

Max Scherzer, Tigers

Max was a mess prior to a mid-May demotion to Triple-A Toledo, but he has been dealing since his vociferous, 14 K return to the majors on May 30th. Scherzer’s fastball velocity has climbed:

Scherzer’s averaging 94.1 MPH since his recall, compared to 91.8 MPH prior. What’s interesting is that his increase in whiffs comes largely from his secondary stuff — the whiff rate on his fastball has improved (6.3% since his recall, 5.2% before his demotion; 6% MLB average), but his slider whiff rate is up to 20.3% from 14% (13.6% MLB average), and his changeup whiff rate has climbed to 20.4% from 10.5% (12.6% MLB average). It’s entirely possible that the increased zip on Scherzer’s fastball makes his slider and change more effective — pitches don’t exist in a vacuum, independent of one another.

Overall, Scherzer now has 8.26 K/9, 3.33 BB/9 and a 4.17 xFIP in 73 innings pitched. However, his early season struggles and ugly 5.67 ERA (the result of a .332 BABIP, 64.1 LOB% and a 14 HR/FB%) have scared off many owners — Scherzer is rostered in just 34% of Yahoo leagues. ZiPS projects a 4.07 FIP with 8.59 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9 for the rest of 2010. This is a great buy-low opportunity.

Chris Young, Diamondbacks

Young had a disastrous season at the plate in 2009, batting .212/.311/.400 with a .314 wOBA and an 85 wRC+. Those looking for a silver lining pointed to Young’s career-high 11.8% walk rate, solid power (.187 ISO) and low .268 BABIP. However, he whiffed 30.7% and basically earned that low BABIP due to an absurdly high infield/fly ball rate. Young popped the ball up 22.4% last season, nearly tripling the major league average. Those weakly hit infield flies are gimme outs, and help explain why Young’s expected BABIP was just .276.

This season, Young has cut his IF/FB rate to a much more palatable 9.3%, and his punchout rate is down to 23.6%. He’s hitting .278/.341/.483 in 288 PA, good for a .366 wOBA and a 122 wRC+. As an added bonus, Young has already swiped 12 bases this season and is on pace for a career-best 28 SB.

While Young has certainly been better offensively this season, we probably shouldn’t expect him to suddenly keep this pace from here on out. His BABIP so far is .319, compared to a .307 xBABIP. And, while the big drop in his pop ups is a great sign, infield/fly ball rate doesn’t become reliable until a batter takes about 500 trips to the plate. ZiPS projects .247/.321/.456 for the rest of the season, with a .343 wOBA and a .285 BABIP. Young could best that line if he can keep on limiting the infield flies.

Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers

Injuries have been a problem for the former Hiroshima Toyo Carp ace since he came stateside in 2008 (shoulder tendinitis in ’08, an oblique strain, a sizzling line drive to the head and a herniated disc in his neck in ’09), but he’s been highly effective when on the mound — his career xFIP is 3.79.

This year, Kuroda’s got 7.13 K/9, 2.45 BB/9 and a 3.68 xFIP in 88.1 frames, keeping the ball down with a 53.5 GB% to boot. The 35-year-old righty is going to his 92-93 MPH fastball less often this season — about 52%, compared to 66% in 2009. In place of the heater, he’s relaying more on a mid-80’s slider/cutter (about 37%) while also mixing in high-80’s splitters (11%). All of his pitches are getting more whiffs than the big league average — 7.7% with the fastball, 14.4% for the slider and 18.1% for the splitter (16.1% MLB average). Kuroda’s still on the waiver wire in 23% of Yahoo leagues, but he’s a rock-solid starter when healthy.

Stock Down

Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays?

Demoted and then DFA’d by the Jays, Encarnacion’s future in Toronto is up in the air — another team could claim him and what’s remaining of his $4.75 million salary (he’s arbitration-eligible next season, too), though GM Alex Anthopoulos doubts that’ll happen.

The 27-year-old Encarnacion, picked up as part of the Scott Rolen swap last summer, is having a bizarre 2010 season. In between a DL stint for a right shoulder injury, he has hit .200/.298/.467 in 141 PA, with a .267 ISO and a wacky-low .167 BABIP.

During his big league tenure, Encarnacion has a .257/.339/.449 triple-slash, a .344 wOBA and a 107 wRC+. He has drawn walks at a slightly above-average rate (9.3 BB%), and he’s got power (.193 ISO). He has generally had a below-average BABIP because he pops the ball up often (16 IF/FB%). Encarnacion is not a lost cause at the plate, but the problem lies on the other side of his game.

The former Red has proven to be a ghastly defender at third base, with a career -12.4 UZR at the position. He could revive his career if he proves to be a capable corner outfielder, but he’s likely going to be a drag defensively at whatever position he mans, and his bat isn’t good enough to pick up the slack. DH’s with modestly useful lumber don’t stick around the majors.

Bronson Arroyo, Reds

On the surface, the guitar-strumming righty with the high leg kick is having another season of innings-munching adequacy — a 4.53 ERA in 93.1 frames. However, Arroyo’s peripheral stats aren’t music to anyone’s ears. He’s got 4.63 K/9, 3.57 BB/9 and a 5.20 xFIP. He’s not putting many pitches within the zone (46.1%, compared to a 47.2% MLB average) and his contact rate has climbed to 85.6% (it was 84.7% last season and around the 81% MLB average from 2006-2008). Remember how Scherzer is owned in just 34% of Yahoo leagues? Well, Arroyo’s 6-3 record has earned him a roster spot in 36% of leagues.

Unless Arroyo picks up the pace K-wise and displays his characteristically quality control, he’s going to start getting hit harder — he’s not likely to keep a .266 BABIP or a 7.1 HR/FB% all season long.

Ian Desmond, Nationals

Washington’s third-round selection in the 2004 draft is falling short of pre-season expectations. Both CHONE (.265/.326/.412, .324 wOBA) and ZiPS (.270/.334/.388, .325 wOBA) gave forecasts of league-average hitting, but Desmond currently sits at .256/.290/.388, with a .296 wOBA.

A major reason for the 24-year-old’s sub-.300 wOBA is his huge strike zone. Desmond’s swinging at 34.5% of pitches thrown outside of the zone (28.3% MLB average), which has often put him in the pitcher’s clutches. The Nats’ shortstop has a 63.5 first pitch strike percentage, far exceeding the 58.4% big league average. Not surprisingly, Desmond’s walk rate is just 4.1%. He’ll need to show a better eye to avoid being a liability at the plate.