Archive for Stock Watch

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

Yeah, I know — kinda obvious. But Strasburg’s first two big league starts are well worth discussing. The hoopla surrounding the San Diego State Aztec reached mythical proportions typically reserved for the likes of Big Foot, Chupacabra and Loch Ness, but Strasburg has been highly impressive.

The 21-year-old righty ripped apart minor league batters before getting the call — in 55.1 IP between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse, he had 10.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a FIP slightly above two. When opponents weren’t whiffing, they were hitting weak grounders (Strasburg’s GB% was 64.9). While his second MLB start against Cleveland proved that he is, in fact a sentient being capable of error, Strasburg has a 22/5 K/BB ratio in 12.1 frames so far.

He’s sitting 98 with the four-seamer, 96 with the two-seamer and also features a low-80’s curve with two-plane break and a 90-91 MPH change that drops seven inches more than his four-seamer (4-4.5 inch big league average). His swinging strike rate is 15.3. There’s not much else to say, other than Strasburg really is worthy of the attention that he receives.

Colby Rasmus, Cardinals

Rasmus, 23, has followed up a quality rookie season with a great leap forward at the plate. In 219 PA, he’s hitting .293/.399/.582, with a .414 wOBA that ranks in the top 10 among MLB hitters. Clearly, Rasmus won’t keep up this pace. He’s benefitting from some fortunate bounces, with a .375 BABIP that’s well ahead of his .319 expected BABIP. But even so, he’s working the count and crushing the ball.

Swinging at 23.3 percent of pitches out of the zone (28.1% MLB average), Rasmus is drawing ball four in 14.6% of his PA. His Isolated Power, .156 last season, is .288 in 2010. All of that taking and raking has come with more swings and misses (33.2 K%, compared to 20% in ’09), but it’s a trade well worth making. Rasmus likely won’t keep hitting homers nearly 21 percent of the time that he lofts a fly ball into the air — ZiPS projects a .266/.342/.447 line for the rest of 2010, and CHONE a .259/.339/.442 triple-slash. I’d take the over on those forecasts, however.

Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays

Definitively a starter with Toronto after years of role-related drama in Seattle, Morrow has been considerably better than his ERA (5.14) implies. He’s got 10.29 K/9, 4.89 BB/9 and a 3.99 xFIP in 70 innings pitched. Morrow still struggles to find the strike zone at times — his first pitch strike percentage is 53.8 (58.3% MLB average) — but he’s missing lumber at an elite rate.

With an 11 percent swinging strike rate, Morrow ranks in the top 10 among qualified starters (the MLB average is 8.2%). His contact rate of 74.4% is well above the 81.1% big league average and places behind just Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum and teammate Ricky Romero. The whiff rates on Morrow’s 94 MPH four-seam fastball and upper-80’s slider are stratospheric — 10.6% for the four-seamer (6% MLB average) and 26.7% for the slider (13.6% MLB average). This guy’s probably still available on the waiver wire, too, as Morrow’s owned in just 15% of Yahoo leagues.

Rick Porcello, Tigers

Porcello’s 21, and his career could take any number of paths over the coming years. But he hasn’t made progress during his sophomore season. The New Jersey prep product is punching out fewer batters this year than in 2009 (4.02 K/9, compared to 4.69 K/9), with a few more walks (2.91 BB/9, 2.74 BB/9 in ’09) and a lower ground ball rate (48.8 GB%, 54.2 GB% in ’09). No, he hasn’t been six-plus ERA bad — his BABIP (.350) and strand rate (61.6%) will regress toward the mean — but Porcello’s xFIP has climbed to 5.14 in 2010 after coming in at 4.32 in 2009.

At this point, Porcello basically has one pitch going for him: a 90 MPH sinker that he throws for strikes and uses to get grounders. Everything else is a work in progress. His four-seamer, thrown a couple ticks quicker, has a decent whiff rate, but Porcello struggles to locate it. Hitters lay off his lackluster breaking and off-speed stuff:

Having thrown all of 125 innings in the minors, Porcello is learning on the job. And he’s still got a ways to go.

Chase Headley, Padres

A full-time third baseman after spending the better part of the past two seasons in left field, Headley is flashing the leather — he has a +8.1 UZR/150 at 3B. His bat lags behind, however.

It seems like the switch-hitter might be trying to make more contact, to the detriment of his power and overall offensive performance. During his rookie season in ’07, Headley struck out 31.4%, with a 72.7 Contact%. Last year, he whiffed 24.5% and made contact 77.8%, and this season he’s punching out 20% with an 81 Contact%. His ISO over that time frame has dipped from .151 to .131 to .093. Headley’s wOBA has declined three years running as well, going from .334 in 2008 to .328 last year to .305 in 2010.

Considering that he’s not drawing many walks this year (5.7 BB%) while just blooping some singles, it’s not surprising that Headley’s offense has been below-average even after accounting for cavernous Petco Park — his wRC+ is 95.

Chris Tillman, Orioles

Tillman, 22, has fantastic long-term potential. He was ranked as a top 100 prospect by Baseball America prior to the 2008 and 2009 seasons, and he has 8.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a FIP around three in 154.1 innings at the Triple-A level over the past two years. Past scouting reports lauded his low-90’s heat (peaking around 94 MPH) and above-average curveball, delivered from a lanky 6-5 frame.

In the majors, however, Tillman’s stuff hasn’t looked as sharp. Tossing 15 innings for the O’s this year, Tillman has a 7/8 K/BB ratio, with 15 runs surrendered. His average fastball velocity is slightly under 91 MPH. In 80 combined IP over the past two years, Tillman has 5.18 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 5.31 xFIP. Both his four-seam fastball and curve have below-average whiff rates in the bigs so far (4.6% and 7.5%, respectively), which helps explain the lack of K’s. As an extreme fly ball pitcher (36.5 GB% in the majors, 39.7 GB% in the minors), Tillman needs to miss more bats and display sharper control. There’s nothing alarming here long-term, but Baltimore could send him back to Triple-A to work out the kinks.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano, 26, has reclaimed his place as one of the game’s elite starters. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2006, the lefty posted back-to-back ordinary seasons in 2008 (4.31 xFIP) and 2009 (4.55 xFIP), lacking the power, control and strong ground ball tendencies which allowed him to wreak havoc in ’06. He also missed time last season with elbow and forearm injuries, again calling into question his durability.

In 2010, however, Liriano has 9.41 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, a 49.5% rate of grounders and a 3.12 xFIP that ranks second to Cliff Lee among qualified AL starters. His mid-80’s slider has always been wicked — it has a +2.49 runs/100 value during his career, and is at +2.71 this season. He’s going to that breaking pitch about 36 percent of the time. But it’s Liriano’s two-seam fastball that’s making a big difference.

Liriano’s heat has been hammered for a -0.8 runs/100 mark during his career, but the pitch (up to 93.5 MPH, from 91 MPH in ’08 and ’09) has a +0.5 runs/100 value this year. He’s throwing the pitch for strikes (64.6%, 61.9% MLB average). Couple the souped-up, well-located fastball with Liriano’s untouchable slider — he’s throwing the pitch for strikes 74.7% (62.7% MLB average) and getting whiffs 24% (13% MLB average) — and you have the recipe for pitcher’s counts and little contact. Liriano’s first pitch strike percentage is 61.6% (58% MLB average) and his contact rate is 75% (80-81% MLB average).

Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Speaking of improved pitches, Pelfrey’s splitter has helped him take a step forward this season. The 6-7 sinkerballer threw his tailing low-90’s fastball nearly 80% of the time in years past, getting ground balls put few punch outs. He experimented with sliders and curves, but neither pitch has been especially effective (-0.76 runs/100 for the slider, -0.2 runs/100 for the curve).

Pelfrey has shifted his pitching strategy this season, going to his fastball about two-thirds of the time and throwing a mid-80’s splitter nearly 19 percent. He’s still keeping the ball down (a career-high 52.5 GB%), but Pelfrey’s K rate has climbed to 6.53, his best showing in the majors. While he hasn’t morphed into the ace that his ERA (2.39) suggests, Pelfrey has a quality 3.87 xFIP. His strand rate (near 83 percent) and sub-six HR/FB rate will likely rise. Still, the changes in Pelfrey’s game make him an asset to the Mets and a guy worthy of fantasy consideration.

Jay Bruce, Reds

“The Boss” entered the season as a prime rebound candidate, given his history of pulverizing minor league pitching and his strong walk and power numbers that were obscured by a low BABIP in 2009. So far, so good for Cincy’s 23-year-old right fielder: Bruce has a .368 wOBA.

He hasn’t quite displayed the light-tower power of past seasons (.197 ISO), but Bruce is still putting a charge into the ball often enough while continuing to improve his plate discipline. His rate of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone has gone from 30.4% in 2008 to 26.1% last season, to 24.4% in 2010. Consequently, his walk rate has climbed — 7.3% in ’08, 9.8% in ’09 and 12.4% this year. Bruce has top-shelf secondary skills, and the best is yet to come.

Grady Sizemore, Indians

Eno was all over the news that Sizemore underwent microfracture surgery, a devastating blow to the Indians and fantasy owners who were looking for a rebound from one of the game’s best players — Sizemore averaged 6.4 WAR per season from 2005-2008, with a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA that was 33 percent above average (133 wRC+).

Sizemore declined to a 112 wRC+ during an ’09 season marred by abdominal and elbow injuries, both of which required surgical fixes. In 2010, he had a paltry 53 wRC+, as his normally excellent patience and pop were nowhere to be seen. Sizemore’s outside swing rate soared to 33 percent (19.1% career average) and his rate of swings on pitches within the zone dipped to 59.4% (65.3% career average). His ISO was just .078 (.204 career).

Hopefully the 27-year-old can return and resume being a franchise-type player, but the truth is, we just don’t know how the procedure will affect his play. Those in keeper leagues have to be feeling Sizemore’s pain.

Cameron Maybin, Marlins

Mike Stanton’s in the big leagues, and early indications are that Cody Ross will shift to center to make room for the 20-year-old masher. That means less PT for Maybin.

While fellow 2005 first-round fly catchers Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury and Colby Rasmus have established themselves in the majors, Maybin has scuffled. In 489 career PA, the 23-year-old has a .308 wOBA, with rough plate discipline (7.6 BB%, 31 K%).

Maybin’s at an uncomfortable, in-between state right now. He’ll either see reduced playing time in the majors, hardly optimal for his development, or perhaps he’ll head back to Triple-A, where he already proved himself last season (.387 wOBA). Ross could be headed out of town in the next couple of months, opening up an everyday job for Maybin. His long-term potential is still excellent. But for now, Maybin’s no longer a prospect and not yet an accomplished big leaguer.

J.J. Hardy Twins

Minnesota acquired Hardy during the off-season for CF Carlos Gomez, hoping that J.J. would provide superb D and produce offensively at a level closer to his 2007 (.338 wOBA) and 2008 (.355 wOBA) work than his .292 mark in 2009. While Hardy, 27, has lived up to expectations with the leather, he has been a near-automatic out at the dish.

When healthy enough to take the field (he served a DL stint with a left wrist sprain, which apparently is still bothering him), Hardy has a .268 wOBA. His .237 BABIP will improve to an extent (though his line drive rate is generally pretty low, and his pop up rate high). Hardy’s rest-of-season ZiPS projection has a .312 wOBA. Coupled with rangy defense, that’s good enough to make him a solid starter for the Twins. ZiPS doesn’t know about Hardy’s wrist, though, and fantasy players getting none of the benefits of Hardy’s glove will want to look elsewhere for shortstop help.

Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals

During the first three full years of his major league career, Zimmerman combined fantastic D with an above-average bat — his wRC+ from 2006-2008 was 110. Since then, the fourth pick in the 2005 draft has kept the slick leather and improved his lumber. He posted a 132 wRC+ in 2009 and holds a 160 wRC+ in 2010.

Zimmerman’s power production has soared, with his Isolated Power figures going from the high 100’s to .233 in ’09 and .295 this season. ISO tends to become reliable around 550 plate appearances, and Zimmerman has been hitting for elite pop for nearly 900 PAs now. His rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .289/.361/.522 triple-slash, with a .233 ISO. Remember Scott Rolen’s peak? Zimmerman, 25, is now that type of player.

Phil Hughes, Yankees

Though he has seemingly been a topic of conversation for years, Hughes turns just 24 this month. And he has been great as a starter — in 56.2 frames, he has 9.05 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.63 xFIP. The 6-5, 240 pound right-hander is doing a great job of getting ahead in the count, with a 67 first pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average), and he’s getting batters to chase out of the zone 34.8% (27.8% MLB average). That’s the sixth-highest chase rate among MLB starters tossing at least 40 innings.

How is Hughes getting the job done? With 92-93 MPH fastballs and high-80’s cutters that hitters can’t seem to lay off. The 2004 first-rounder has gone to his fastball about 52 percent, getting a strike 70.2 percent of the time (64.4% MLB average) and getting a whiff 9.3% (6% MLB average). Batters have offered at the four-seamer 51.9 percent (45.2% MLB average).

The cutter, used about 27 percent of the time, has been thrown for a strike 75.1% (66.7% MLB average). It’s getting whiffs 10.4% (8.4% MLB average) and has been swung at 63.1% (50% MLB average). Hughes’ curve isn’t faring as well, with below-average strike, whiff and swing rates, but the fastball and cutter have made him death on righties (2.88 xFIP) and acceptable against lefties (4.40 xFIP).

If Hughes is still available in your league, well, what are you waiting for? ZiPS projects 8.51 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.68 FIP from here on out. The Yankees are going to be cautious with his workload, but he’ll continue to deal when he’s on the mound.

Ryan Doumit, Pirates

The 29-year-old switch-hitter has a Tolstoy-length injury history — a torn hamstring in 2006, a concussion as well as a wrist and ankle sprain in 2007, a fractured thumb in 2008 and a wrist injury that required surgery in 2009 — but when he’s not hurting, he’s mashing.

After posting a 126 wRC+ during a (moderately) healthy 2008, Doumit’s production dipped considerably in 2009 (85 wRC+). Some of that was poor luck on balls put in play, but he hacked at a career-high 33.2% of pitches thrown outside of the zone.

In 2010, Doumit has chased 24.2% of off-the-plate pitches, and he’s drawing walks at a career-best 10.3% clip. His first pitch strike percentage is just 44.6 — that’s lowest among MLB batters with at least 100 trips to the plate. Doumit has a 127 wRC+ in 175 PA, with a .281/.371/.451 line. ZiPS projects a .277/.339/.458 showing for the rest of 2010, which is plenty useful for a backstop. But if Doumit continues to work the count well, his value gets a boost.

Of course, all of this is assuming he doesn’t hit the DL tomorrow.

Akinori Iwamura, Pirates

Picked up from Tampa Bay over the off-season for RHP Jesse Chavez (who was subsequently sent to Atlanta for Rafael Soriano), Iwamura has effectively lost the starting gig at the keystone spot for Pittsburgh to Neil Walker.

CHONE (108 wRC+) and ZiPS (107 wRC+) both forecast Iwamura for a solid offensive season, getting on base at a characteristically high rate while displaying little pop. Instead, Aki has a 49 wRC+ in 181 PA. He’s drawing a walk 12.1% of the time, but an incredibly low BABIP has made him one of the worst players in the majors to date.

During his major league career, Iwamura has a .330 BABIP. CHONE projected a .343 pre-season BABIP, and ZiPS .345. Aki’s 2010 BABIP? .198. He has had fewer batted balls classified as line drives (13.3%, compared to a 19.4% career average), and his ground ball rate has spiked to 58.6% (47.3% career average). That helps explain why his ISO is .076, below his pre-season projections of .109 from CHONE and .114 from ZiPS, as well as his career .108 mark.

Those aren’t promising developments, but Iwamura probably hasn’t totally lost it — his rest-of-season ZiPS projection is .262/.337/.369, with a .319 wOBA. Even so, the Pirates’ decision to give Walker (profiled here) a shot is defensible. The 24-year-old has a .262/.307/.449 rest-of-season ZiPS. It remains to be seen how he’ll handle second base, and he’s no top prospect these days. But Walker could be part of the next relevant Pirates team, while Iwamura won’t be.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox

Since returning from a neck/back strain, Matsuzaka has been a pain in the neck to Sox fans and fantasy owners alike. Dice-K has 6.55 K/9, 5.5 BB/9 and a 5.49 xFIP in 34.1 innings pitched. He has put 46.4% of his pitches within the zone (47.5% MLB average), and he’s getting first pitch strikes just 52.4%. Matsuzaka also isn’t missing bats — his swinging strike rate is 6.4%, compared to the 8-8.5% MLB average and his career 9.7% average.

During his first two seasons state-side, Dice-K was basically a league-average starter (4.31 xFIP in 2007, 4.70 in 2008). He was control-challenged, but at least compensated with good K rates. Last year’s shoulder ailment and 4.83 xFIP, coupled with more injury concerns and lousy pitching this season, make him hard to recommend. The upside here would appear to be a 4.25-4.50 ERA. Is that worth all the aggravation?

Gordon Beckham, White Sox

Beckham went from Athens to the South Side in short order, putting up a .270/.347/.460 triple-slash and a 112 wRC+ in 2009. CHONE (115 wRC+) and ZiPS (111 wRC+) predicted more of the same for the 23-year-old, and Beckham’s value received an extra boost fantasy-wise with his shifting from third to second base.

Flash forward two months into the 2010 season, and Beckham is owned in just 42% of Yahoo leagues. He has a ghastly .196/.286/.239 line in 187 PA, with a 45 wRC+.

It would be rash to sell low on Beckham in keeper leagues, as he remains a valuable long-term talent, but he looks lost at the plate at the moment. After swinging at 24.8% of out-of-zone pitches during his rookie year, Gordon has gone fishing 30.6% this season. His groundball rate is up 10 percentage points (40.4% to 50.4%), and his pop up rate has increased — 14%, compared to 11.9% last year and the 7-8% big league average. Beckham’s .043 ISO puts him in the illustrious company of Jason Kendall and teammate Juan Pierre.

He’s not going to keep a .238 BABIP, but Beckham is surely testing the patience of owners who have stuck with him through his struggles.

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Geo was a prime bounce-back candidate entering 2010, given that his strong walk and power numbers in ’09 were obscured by his batting average on balls in play taking a nose-dive. CHONE projected a .358 wOBA for the Cubbies backstop prior to the season, and ZiPS projected a .352 mark.

So far, Soto has outpaced those forecasts with a .386 wOBA. His BABIP, .246 last year, has shot up to .316 (his career average is .306), and he’s still driving the ball fairly often (.151 Isolated Power). The biggest reason Soto has scorched those pre-season forecasts, though, is his Bondsian walk rate — Geo has taken ball four in 22.1 percent of his plate appearances. That’s tops in the majors among batters with at least 100 PA.

Soto was a patient hitter in 2007 (20.1 outside-swing percentage) and 2008 (17.8 O-Swing). But this year, he has chased just 13.4 percent of out-of-zone pitches (second in the majors). Geo likely won’t keep this pace up, but his rest-of-season ZiPS projection –.262/.357/.456, with a .360 wOBA –still makes him one of the best fantasy options at his position. Yet, Soto is still available in one-quarter of Yahoo Leagues. That makes me wanna take a Lou Pinella-like tantrum.

Mat Latos, Padres

As a 22-year-old starter who dealt with shoulder and oblique injuries on the farm, logging a career-high 127.2 innings between the minors and the majors in 2009, Latos isn’t likely to be burdened with a full-season big league workload in 2010. Still, he’s showing the excellent stuff — a 93-94 MPH fastball, an upper-80’s slider and a mid-80’s change — that allowed him to whiff 10.5 batters per nine frames as a prospect.

In 55.1 IP, Latos has 6.83 K/9, 1.95 BB/9 and a 3.81 xFIP. While the walk rate suggests he’s pounding the strike zone, that hasn’t been the case. Latos has placed 41.7% of his pitches in the zone, well below the 47.7% MLB average. Rather, the 6-6, 225 pound righty has induced swings on pitches off the plate 30.6% (27.6% MLB average). Latos has also gotten swinging strikes 9.3%, compared to the 8.3% MLB average. He’ll be handled cautiously, but Latos is a premium young arm in a pitcher’s paradise.

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays

The former Pirate has already popped 14 home runs in 2010. For reference, he went deep 16 times in 2006, 15 in 2007 and 2008 and 13 in 2009. Bautista has a .325 ISO, basically doubling up on his pre-season projections (.163 CHONE, .162 ZiPS), and his wOBA is .393 (.320 pre-season CHONE and ZiPS).

He’s lofting the ball more than ever, with a 52.3 FB% (43.7% career average), and those fly balls are finding the stands a whopping 20.9% of the time (11.5% career average). Odds are, “Joey Bats” (as he was known in Pittsburgh) hasn’t become a hulking, elite power hitter. But you can’t just pretend that his power surge hasn’t happened, either.

The best course of action is to take those pre-season projections and incorporate the extra data points we’ve gotten on Bautista over the past two months. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .339 wOBA for Bautista, with a .201 ISO.

Ted Lilly, Cubs

Lilly has been one of the best free agent signings among starting pitchers since he inked a four-year, $40 million deal with the Cubs prior to 2007. The lefty compiled 10 WAR from 2007-2009, providing about $44 million in value. However, Lilly hasn’t looked as sharp in 2010.

The 34-year-old, who began the season on the DL recovering from left shoulder and knee surgery, has 5.02 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 4.83 xFIP in 37.2 innings. Lilly has never been known for velocity, but his heater is down to an average of 85.3 MPH in 2010 after sitting 87-88 MPH in recent seasons. His slider, typically around 82 MPH, is averaging 79.4 MPH.

Keep in mind the sample size, but Lilly’s whiff rates are down across the board (data from texasleaguers.com):

Lilly has garnered swinging strikes 5.9% this year, compared to a 9.5% career average. His contact rate is 87.5% (79.7% career average, 80-81% MLB average). Perhaps this is just a blip, but Lilly needs to start missing more bats to be an above-average big league starter.

Matt LaPorta, Indians

Granted, LaPorta spent more time on the surgeon’s table than in the batting cage this past off-season — he had surgery on his left hip and left toe. But the 25-year-old, Cleveland’s supposed big catch in the CC Sabathia deal, has been extremely disappointing this season.

The career .291/.384/.557 minor league hitter has a paltry .240 wOBA in 110 trips to the plate. LaPorta showed decent patience as a prospect with a 10.3% walk rate, but he has hacked at 32.7% of pitches off the plate this year. The most surprising aspect of his season, however, is a total lack of pop — his ISO is in Juan Pierre territory, at .059.

While fantasy owners shouldn’t write him off entirely, LaPorta has an uninspiring .329 rest-of-season wOBA projection from ZiPS. League-average hitting from a defensively-challenged corner outfielder/1B/DH just isn’t very valuable.

Randy Wolf, Brewers

Signed by Milwaukee to a three-year, $29.75M deal during the winter, Wolf benefitted from a low BABIP and a high rate of stranding base runners during a contract year in 2009. The result was a 3.23 ERA that outpaced his xFIP (4.17) by nearly a run.

Both CHONE (4.22 pre-season FIP projection) and ZiPS (4.19) predicted that Wolf would be more serviceable starter than top-shelf arm in 2010. So far, the new Brewer has fallen short of that level of performance. Wolf has 6.09 K/9, 4.12 BB/9 and a 4.96 xFIP. The 33-year-old got swings on pitches out of the zone around 24% of the time in recent years, but that’s down to 20% this season. After putting about 53% of his pitches in the zone in 2008 and 2009, Wolf’s Zone% is 48.8. His swinging strike rate, around the MLB average recently, sits at 6.1%.

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects 6.85 K/9, 3.18 BB/9 and a 4.36 FIP. Wolf will likely pitch better from here on out, but that low-three’s ERA hurler from ’09 isn’t coming back.

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto, 24, posted xFIP’s of 4.37 in 2008 and 4.57 in 2009. While by no means bad, those performances were mildly disappointing, given the way the right-hander shredded minor league hitters on his way to Cincy.

Perhaps Cueto is ready to take a step forward in his development as a major league starter. After owning the Pirates and Brewers in his last two starts, Johnny has 7.35 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 4.12 xFIP in 49 innings. He’s getting plenty of whiffs with his four-seam fastball (12 percent, double his MLB-average whiff rate on the pitch from 2009), and his slider is getting swings and misses 12.8 percent after eliciting whiffs 9.7 percent in ’09 (13.6 MLB average).

He’s getting behind in the count often, with a 52.2 first pitch strike percentage that’s well south of the 58-59% big league average, but Cueto’s contact and swinging strike rates have improved after he posted mediocre numbers in ’09. ZiPS projects a 4.12 FIP for the rest of the season, with 7.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.

Brett Gardner, Yankees

Taken in the third round of the 2005 draft out of the College of Charleston, Gardner used his wheels to swipe bases at a high percentage clip (83.4 percent) and cover the gaps in the minors, while working the count for a 13.6 percent walk rate. Questions were raised about his bat, though, given Gardner’s lack of pop (.094 ISO) and 20 percent K rate.

While the 5-10, 185 pound lefty batter is unlikely to keep the .390 wOBA that he currently holds, Gardner has eased concerns about his offense. He’s drawing walks at a 10.3 percent rate this year, swinging at 20.2 percent of pitches outside of the zone (27.4% MLB average), and he’s making scores of contact (93.5 percent, compared to the 80-81% MLB average).

Gardner isn’t going to drive the ball with any frequency, but he controls the zone well and has proven to be one of the best stolen base thieves in the game: he’s 17-for-18 in 2010, and now has an 88.9 percent success rate in the big leagues. According to Baseball Prospectus’ base running numbers, Gardner has added nearly half a win with his legs (best in the majors), including about three runs on steal attempts. Add in his stellar outfield D, and Gardner might be the rarest of species: the unheralded Yankee.

Derek Holland, Rangers

After laying waste to Triple-A batters (38.2 IP, 37/7 K/BB, 8 runs allowed), Holland was recalled when Matt Harrison (biceps) was placed on the DL. While the 23-year-old lefty’s 2009 work with Texas looks grim at first glance (6.12 ERA in 138.1 IP), his underlying performance was much more promising: a 4.38 xFIP, with about seven whiffs per nine innings and 3.1 BB/9.

Holland has made two big league starts so far, and he has posted a 10/3 K/BB while allowing three runs. He has the stuff (low-90’s fastball, low-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve, low-80’s change), track record (9.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in the minors) and prospect pedigree (Baseball America rated him #31 on its list of farm talents prior to 2009) to contribute in all fantasy formats.

John Lackey, Red Sox

Signed to a five-year, $82.5 million contract over the winter, Lackey has been lackluster this season. The long-time Angel dealt with right triceps and forearm injuries over the past couple of years and his contact rates had been rising, but his combination of solid K rates and quality control led to sub-four xFIPs from 2007-2009.

In Boston, Lackey has a middling 4.85 xFIP in 50 innings pitched. He’s striking out a career-worst 5.58 batters per nine frames, while walking a career-high 3.78 per nine. The 31-year-old’s contact rate has continued to increase: opponents have connected 85.8 percent in 2010, compared to an 80.4% career average, and Lackey is getting swinging strikes a paltry 5.6 percent (8.9% career average, right around the MLB average). He’s not locating well, either, with 45.7 percent of his pitches catching the plate (50.4% career average, 48-51% MLB average). Lackey’s curve has been worth +0.92 runs per 100 pitches during his career, but it has been thumped for a -1.96 runs/100 mark in 2010.

Owners are best off taking a wait-and-see approach with Lackey. His trade value is diminished right now, so it makes sense to hold on to him and hope that his stuff rebounds.

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

When Milledge managed just a .308 wOBA and a .094 ISO in 2009, some were willing to forgive the shoddy offensive showing due to a fractured right ring finger that might have affected his bat control. However, the former Met and National is hitting like someone broke both his thumbs.

In 136 PA, Milledge has an anemic .286 wOBA, and he’s hitting for even less power than last season (.066 ISO). The 25-year-old continues to swing at plenty of junk pitches (30.3 outside swing percentage), and he’s chopping the ball into the dirt and popping up at an alarming rate. Milledge has a 57.4 GB% this year, and his infield/fly ball rate is 16 percent (twice the major league average). Couple the punch less hitting with…adventurous routes in left field, and it might not be long before the Pirates give Jose Tabata a shot.

Mitch Talbot, Indians

Freed from the Tampa pitching factory that had buried him on the organizational depth chart, Talbot was shipped to Cleveland for Kelly Shoppach last December. Talbot’s got a 3.23 ERA in 47.1 IP for the Indians, but his peripherals suggest that bumpier days are ahead.

The 26-year-old right-hander showed strong ground ball tendencies on the farm (53.9 GB%), and he has continued to burn worms in the majors (49 GB%). Unfortunately, Talbot’s control has been ordinary (3.99 BB/9, with a 52.9 first pitch strike percentage) and he’s not fooling anyone. He has 3.61 K/9, his contact rate is near 90 percent and his swinging strike rate (4.1 percent) is less than half of the major league average. Talbot’s xFIP is 5.09. Unless he misses more bats or displays sharper control, expect that ERA to spike.

Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks

The USC product mowed down hitters in the minors (9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9) and posted solid Major League Equivalent lines in 2007 and 2008, but modest stuff and a lost 2009 season dented Kennedy’s value. Last year, surgery to repair an aneurysm under his right armpit limited him to one big league inning and 22.2 frames at Triple-A.

Picked up from the Yankees as part of a three-team deal over the winter, Kennedy has settled in quite nicely in the desert. He has been fortunate on balls put in play (.252 BABIP) and his 82.9 percent strand rate will likely fall, so the 3.48 ERA will rise. But in 44 innings, the 25-year-old righty has 7.16 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and a 4.11 xFIP.

Throwing high-70’s curves, low-80’s changeups and occasional mid-80’s sliders to supplement an 89-90 MPH fastball, Kennedy is holding his own with an 8.9 percent swinging strike rate (8.3% MLB average). He’s pounding the zone, with 52.7 percent of his pitches crossing the plate (48% MLB average) and has an impressive 65.9 first pitch strike percentage (57.7% MLB average).

Kennedy is a fly ball pitcher in a park that inflates homer production, and he’s not keeping the near-.250 BABIP. Even so, he’s owned in just 17% of Yahoo leagues and seems capable of posting a low-four’s ERA with a solid K/BB ratio from here on out.

Vladimir Guerrero, Rangers

Hampered by knee, pectoral and calf injuries, Vlad had a tame .343 wOBA in 2009. His Isolated Power, typically in the low-to-mid-.200’s, was .164. At 35, with his body seemingly failing him, Guerrero looked to be firmly on the decline.

Instead, The Impaler is hitting .339/.375/.539 (.390 wOBA), and his ISO is back up to an even .200. Guerrero is pulling the ball more often this year, and he’s hitting the ball with a little more authority to the middle field as well (data from Baseball-Reference):

And, would you believe that Vlad is actually hacking more than usual this year? Famous for a Lone star state-sized strike zone, Guerrero has chased 49 percent of pitches thrown off the plate, his highest rate dating back to 2002. He’s not human.

Jaime Garcia, Cardinals

The 23-year-old southpaw has received plenty of attention around these parts, yet Garcia is available in one-third of Yahoo leagues.

Featuring a cornucopia of pitches (fastball, two-seamer, curve, slider, cutter, changeup), Garcia has whiffed 7.11 batters per nine innings, walked 3.55 and has induced ground balls at a 62 percent clip.

St. Louis’ 22nd round pick in the ’05 draft will eventually surrender a dinger, his .252 BABIP will rise and he’ll strand less than 83 percent of base runners (those numbers help explain the 1.18 ERA). But Garcia’s xFIP is a stellar 3.59. He’s getting swinging strikes 9.6 percent, and has gotten batters to chase pitches out of the zone 28.5 percent (27.2% MLB average in 2010). Durability is a concern, but with solid K rates and ground ball tendencies, Garcia is well worth a roster spot.

Adam Jones, Orioles

Baltimore’s center fielder appeared headed for bigger and better things this season, coming off of a 2009 campaign in which he improved his walk rate, ISO and wOBA.

Instead of building off of 2009’s .343 wOBA, Jones holds a brutal .265 wOBA in 2010. After compiling a .180 ISO last year, he’s at .126 this season. He’s chasing more pitches out of the zone than ever (40.7%, compared to an already-high 35.9% career rate) and he’s taking a cut at fewer pitches within the zone (64.5% – his career mark is 70.6%). Swinging at more junk pitches and letting more strikes go by – that’s a recipe for a lot of pitcher’s counts. Indeed, Jones’ first pitch strike percentage is 66.4. Not surprisingly, he’s drawing walks at a career-worst 2.9 percent rate.

Scott Kazmir, Angels

Kazmir has lost velocity and K’s, while keeping the walks and extreme fly ball proclivities. Past reputation aside, Kazmir’s current blend of skills makes him the AL’s answer to Oliver Perez.

The 26-year-old lefty, slowed by elbow, quad and shoulder problems in recent years, has 7.82 K/9, 5.68 BB/9, a 32.9% ground ball rate and an ugly 5.51 xFIP in 25.1 innings this season. Though his swinging strike and contact rates have bounced back somewhat from last year’s career-worst levels, they fall short of his Rays glory days. And, he has placed just 42.9 percent of his pitches within the strike zone. Kazmir’s xFIPs from 2007-2009? 3.79, 4.13, and 4.88. He has been in gradual decline for a while – this isn’t the same electric starter who broke in with Tampa.

Aramis Ramirez, Cubs

Is it time to get concerned here? The 31-year-old Ramirez, who missed time last season with a dislocated left shoulder, is hitting just .163/.226/.260. Among batters with at least 80 trips to the plate, only Brandon Wood and Jerry Hairston have posted worse wOBA’s than A-Ram’s .218.

While Ramirez has an insanely low .183 BABIP, he hasn’t hit for any power (.098 ISO) and he’s whiffing much more than usual (24.4 K%, 15.4% career average). His percentage of in-zone contact is just 81.3, well below his 87.5% average since 2002 and the 87-88% big league average.

Ramirez usually rakes against fastballs. Per 100 pitches seen, he posted +1.3, +1.38 and +1.36 run values versus heaters from 2007-2009. This season, he’s at a MLB-worst -4.24. Maybe it’s just a timing issue, but Ramirez’s bat looks slow.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano wasn’t near as bad as his 2009 ERA (5.80) indicated, as he posted rates of 8.03 K/9, 4.28 BB/9 and a 4.55 xFIP. He entered 2010 with plenty of hype, and those who invested in the 26 year-old southpaw are being rewarded handsomely. In 36 IP, Liriano has punched out a batter per inning, with 3.25 BB/9 and a 3.09 xFIP. His slider has been like a predator drone: per Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, that slide piece has been thrown for a strike 77 percent (62.8% MLB average), with an obscene 24.2 percent whiff rate (13% MLB average).

His fastball velocity has climbed from 91.7 MPH in ’09 to 93.6 MPH this year, and he’s generating ground balls at a 53.9 percent clip. That resurgent ground ball rate appears to be the result of a boatload of two seamers: according to Liriano’s Pitch F/X page, he’s throwing a two-seamer 47% of the time this season, compared to 12.1% in 2009 when his ground ball rate was 40.2%.

In terms of fooling batters, Liriano is in elite territory thus far. His 31.4 outside swing percentage is a career best and eclipses the 27% MLB average. His 74% contact rate is also well below the 80.7% MLB average. While Liriano struggled to get ahead in the count last year (55.3 first pitch strike%), he is getting first pitch strikes 64 percent of the time in 2010 (57.5% MLB average).

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Battling back, shoulder, groin and abdomen injuries in 2009, Hamilton turned in a middling .321 wOBA that fell well short of his .386 wOBA in 2007-2008. His ISO dipped to .158, and Hamilton hacked at 36.1 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Falling behind the pitcher often 65.3 first pitch strike percentage), Hamilton drew a walk in just 6.6 percent of his plate appearances.

While the soon-to-be-29 year-old was sidelined with a shoulder contusion during spring training, he has managed a healthy .368 wOBA in 2010. Hamilton’s pop has returned (.227 ISO), and he seems to have a better game plan at the plate. His O-Swing% is down to a league average 27 percent, and his first pitch strike percentage sits at 59.3. The lefty batter’s walk rate is a career-best 10.2 percent.

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs

Soriano was a train wreck in 2009. Bothered by a left knee injury that eventually shut him down in September and required surgery, the left fielder authored a .314 wOBA (the worst full-season mark of his career). Soriano’s elite power was merely good (.182 ISO), and his aching legs robbed him of his once-solid speed.

While the 34 year-old will collect inordinately large checks for years to come ($18M annually from 2010-2014), his bat has bounced back. Soriano has slugged to the tune of a .447 wOBA to this point, with a .350 ISO. Perhaps it’s a coincidence, but pitchers seem reluctant to toss him a strike: Soriano is seeing fewer pitches within the zone than usual (39% this year, compared to 46-48% in recent years). He’s obviously not going to continue at this pace, and his days as a SB threat are through. But Soriano’s ZiPS projection for the rest of the season (.275/.334/.513, .368 wOBA) is plenty useful.

Ben Sheets, Athletics

Sheets has been a shell of his former self in Oakland. Returning to the majors after missing the 2009 season with a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, the 31 year-old righty has 4.75 K/9 and BB/9 apiece, with a 5.65 xFIP in 30.1 innings.

The former Milwaukee Brewer previously sat 92-93 MPH with his fastball, but he’s down to 91.3 MPH this season. Sheets isn’t missing much lumber, and his trademark precision is conspicuously absent:

Here’s a comparison of Sheets’ fastball and curveball during his last healthy season (2008) and 2010, courtesy of Somers’ Pitch F/X data:

The tally for Oakland’s $10 million investment so far? -0.3 Wins Above Replacement.

Carlos Lee, Astros

How bad has Houston’s “offense” been? The Astros rank dead last in wOBA at .271, nearly 20 points worse than the 29th-ranked Mariners (.290 wOBA). The ‘Stros are the worst club in drawing walks (5.3 BB%) and hitting for power (.088 ISO).

The most egregious offender, save for Kazuo Matsui, is Carlos Lee. El Caballo has limped to a ghastly .212 wOBA during his first 98 plate appearances. Lee has yet to go yard, has a .054 ISO and has expanded his zone with a 32.1 outside swing percentage. Odds are, Lee isn’t toast. But he is 33 years old and saw his ISO drip from the .220-.255 range from 2004-2008 to .189 in 2009. ZiPS projects a good, not great .357 wOBA for the rest of the season, with a .194 ISO.

Julio Borbon, Rangers

Texas’ supplemental first-rounder in the 2007 draft generated fantasy buzz due his wheels, but his lackluster plate discipline served as a drawback. So far, it looks like Borbon spent the winter watching Corey Patterson instructional videos.

Borbon has drawn ball four just once in 80 plate appearances (1.3%), while jumping at 41.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. That’s leading to plenty of pitchers counts, as Borbon’s first pitch strike percentage is 63.8. The 24 year-old has been unlucky on balls put in play (.238 BABIP), but his approach has been abysmal. Recently, the Rangers have been working in Craig Gentry (another speed player with limited secondary skills) in center field. Borbon has blazing speed and is a quality defender, but he’s a mess at the dish right now.

Every season we have unexpected hot starts from a multitude of players around the Majors. Some are for real, some are just a tease. The home run is one of the more valuable fantasy categories in many leagues. Let’s take a look at the Top 10 home run hitters in the Majors and try to sort out who’s legit and who’s going to make novice fantasy players look silly in the long run.

At the beginning of the season, I would have called you insane for telling me Vernon Wells would be leading the Majors in homers. After all, he’s coming off of three pretty lousy seasons (1.5 WAR or worse). But I’ve seen him with my own eyes quite a few times this season and that swing is for real. The outfielder had wrist surgery this past off-season, for an issue that had been dogging for, well, apparently for about three years. His approach still makes me cringe, as he pulls absolutely everything (even wild pitches headed for the first base dugout), so his average is probably going to suffer. As long pitchers keep making mistakes out and over the plate, though, Wells is going to cream pitches for doubles and homers.

I’ve been touting Matt Kemp as a 2010 breakout candidate for a while now and it looks like he might be ready to make me look smart. He’s hitting for power and average, while also driving in most of L.A.’s runs (20 in 14 games). He has a legit shot at a 30-30 season if he improves his stolen base rate.

Mr. Late Bloomer Nelson Cruz is out to prove that his ’09 season was not a fluke. He’s going to strikeout a fair bit and he probably isn’t going to hit .300, but a 30+ homer season is definitely within reason. Oh, and check out the three steals… another 20+ SB season, would certainly make him an even more attractive fantasy player.

If you think Wells is a shocking addition to the home run leader board, you’re probably on the floor with a tingly left side now that you’ve seen Jose Guillen’s name on the board. I mean, it’s almost like his contract is up or somethi- What? Oh. Guillen is currently hitting like a man possessed, but who knows if or when the streak will end. Enjoy it while it lasts and don’t feel bad for picking him up and riding the hot bat. (And yes, I know he apparently almost died last year from a clot).

I don’t think we really need to get too in-depth here with Chase Utley. He’s the best offensive second baseman on the planet (and a pretty nifty defender to boot). End of story.

Uh, well, the same thing goes for Mr. Pujols. The home runs are no surprise and they should not let up any time soon. The scary thing is that he’s actually kind of slumping right now. And it says a lot about his talent when we consider a .423 wOBA a slump…

Apparently nobody told Dustin Pedroia that 5’9” second basemen are not supposed to hit homers. He’s hit some dingers in the past, but he’s on pace for more than 20 homers this season. Alex Gonzalez opened the season with a real bang. His power output has slowed down somewhat over the past week but he still has five homers and eight doubles. He has hit more than 20 homers in a season, so the home-run burst is not that out of character.

Colby Rasmus is showing everyone why you should never count out a top prospect after a rough rookie season. The power is for real. Konerko is no longer a .280-.300 hitter like he was in his prime, but the 34 year old is proving that he still has some pop left in the tank. You should not be surprised to see Mark Reynolds‘ name on this list.

Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers

Though the change may be temporary, Feliz has taken over closing duties from Frank Francisco.

One of two core players picked up in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira swap (Elvis Andrus being the other), Feliz beings mid-to-upper-nineties smoke, a hard high-70’s curve and an occasional mid-80’s changeup out of the ‘pen. The 22 year-old (in May) struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings in the minors. He has 11.8 K/9 in 34.1 big league frames, with 2.62 BB/9 and a 3.11 expected FIP. Feliz is adept at getting hitters to chase out of the zone, with a 30.1 outside swing percentage (25 percent MLB average).

Feliz’s long term role has yet to be determined, but there’s little doubt that he can be an effective, high-leverage reliever for the Rangers in 2010.

Chris Snyder, Arizona Diamondbacks

With Miguel Montero (torn meniscus in right knee) hitting the DL and likely headed for surgery that could sideline him for a significant amount of time, Snyder becomes the everyday backstop for the D-Backs.

Snyder is no stranger to health issues, as the 29 year-old was limited to 202 plate appearances in 2009 with a back injury that required surgery. His line (.200/.333/.352) and wOBA (.304) look ghastly, but he drew a walk nearly 16 percent of the time and still managed a .152 ISO. A .237 BABIP dragged down his numbers considerably.

Yeah, Snyder can’t beat a Molina in a foot race (career 1.0 Speed Score) and he pops the ball up a lot (career 14.7 infield fly rate), two traits that deflate BABIP (his career mark is .274). But if he’s healthy and gets a few more bounces to go his way, Snyder could be a nifty NL-only option: ZiPS projects a .239/.341/.438 line the rest of the way.

Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit Tigers

Bonderman has broken many hearts over the years. He has one of the largest splits between ERA (4.77 career) and xFIP (4.00) among starters, the result of a career .316 BABIP and a lower-than-usual strand rate (67.7 percent). Bonderman scarcely pitched at all over the 2008 and 2009 seasons following a procedure to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. It’s enough to make you wanna throw a chair.

While one start doesn’t tell us much, Bonderman did look good while taking on the Indians on April 10th. In five frames, he struck out five and walked two, surrendering one hit and one run. Bonderman pounded the zone with his fastball and slider, throwing 59 of his 91 pitches for strikes (64.8 percent). Stamina and durability are big issues, but Bonderman is owned in just four percent of Yahoo leagues. He’s worth a look.

Chris Young, San Diego Padres

It’s been a rough couple of years for Young. He took an Albert Pujols liner off the face in 2008, while also struggling with a right forearm injury. In 2009, Young underwent right shoulder surgery that limited him to just 76 innings. As an extreme fly ball pitcher in a park where long drives die at the warning track, he’s in the best possible environment. But Young’s velocity has dipped from the high-80’s to the mid-80’s, and his walk rate has increased considerably. His percentage of pitches within the strike zone has plummeted, as has his swinging strike rate.

Now, Young heads back to the DL with shoulder tightness. Precautionary or no, Young’s stuff has declined over the past few years to the extent that he would be a liability in less hospitable ball parks. He shouldn’t be on your radar unless/until he can show more than mid-80’s “heat” high in the zone.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Texas Rangers

It’s difficult to remember now, but Salty was once the key piece in the aforementioned Teixeira bounty. But in 874 career major league plate appearances, the switch-hitter has authored a .251/.313/.388 line, with a .306 wOBA. Saltalamacchia has handled fastballs at an average rate, but off-speed stuff has flummoxed him: -2.4 runs per 100 pitches against sliders, -0.97 runs/100 versus curves and -1.37 against changeups. Not surprisingly, Salty has seen a rather low proportion of fastballs (55.4 percent).

Saltalamacchia underwent surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome late last season, and he was recently placed on the DL with upper back stiffness. He won’t turn 25 until May, but the former top prospect is a flawed player at the moment. In Salty’s stead, Taylor Teagarden will try to prove that he can avoid being eaten alive by big league pitching. ZiPS (.215/.291/.369) thinks he’ll remain a tasty dish for opposing hurlers.

Ben Sheets, Oakland Athletics

Again, we’re dealing with small sample sizes here. But Sheets hasn’t shown crisp stuff with the A’s. The long-time Brewer, who missed the entire 2009 season with a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow, has a 4/7 K/BB ratio in 11 frames. Sheets has averaged 91.2 MPH with his fastball, compared to 92-93 MPH in past years. His swinging strike rate is 4.7 percent (8-9 percent MLB average), and his contact rate is well above average (88.1 percent, 80-81 percent MLB average).

It’s entirely possible that Sheets’ early struggles are forgotten in the coming months, with his fastball hitting its normal velocity and his performance improving greatly. The problem is, we just don’t know if that will occur at this point. If you own Sheets, don’t dump him for pennies on the dollar. But keep an eye on his fastball and curve in the coming weeks to see if they start to round into form.

Jon Rauch, Minnesota Twins

Manager Ron Gardenhire originally announced that the Twins would go with a closer-by-committee in the absence of Joe Nathan, likely causing some fantasy owners to shred their own UCL’s throwing something at the computer screen. However, Gardenhire has since changed course and will call upon Rauch in the ninth inning.

The towering, tatted up Twin has an unusually deep arsenal for a reliever, with a low-90’s fastball, low-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve and a mid-80’s changeup. Rauch has gone to those secondary pitches with greater frequency: his fastball percentage has fallen from 67.9 percent in 2006, 60.4% in 2007, 59.9% in 2008 to 52.8 percent in 2009.

He’s not your prototypical late-game reliever. Over the past three seasons, Rauch has struck of 7.3 batters per nine innings, with contact rates hovering around the MLB average of 80-81 percent. However, he does a nice job of getting ahead in the count, with a 63.7 first-pitch strike percentage since ’07 (10th among relievers over that time frame, and well above the 58% MLB average).

Add it all up, and you have a good, not great reliever who will provide value in all formats but won’t be a force by any means. CHONE predicts a 3.96 FIP in 2010, while ZiPS forecasts a 4.27 mark.

Felix Pie, Baltimore Orioles

With Nolan Reimold still working his way back from offseason surgery to repair a damaged left Achilles tendon (and taking grounders at first base), Pie figures to be in the lineup often as the 2010 season gets under way. The 25 year-old had his own health scare a few days ago (taking a Mo Rivera pitch off his right ankle), but he’s OK.

While his Cubs career came to a frustrating conclusion, Pie made some headway in 2009. In 281 PA, the lefty batter posted a .326 wOBA, showing progress in working the count. Never known for his patience in the minors (7.4 BB%), Pie drew a walk in 8.5 percent of his plate appearances. He has a career .300/.353/.478 line at the Triple-A level, and he should be at least a league-average hitter this upcoming season.

Pie’s inclusion in the opening day lineup, coupled with Reimold trying to get acquainted with first base, suggests that the O’s are intent on giving Pie’s decent bat and great range a chance to shine. If he shows some restraint at the plate, Pie could be a sleeper.

Shaun Marcum, Toronto Blue Jays

Taking a big league mound for the first time since September of 2008, Marcum tossed seven strong innings against the Texas Rangers. The 28 year-old righty, sidelined following Tommy John surgery, gave up three runs while punching out six batters and walking just one.

As BrooksBaseball.net’s Pitch F/X goodies show, Marcum did a great job of locating his fastball and changeup for strikes (69 percent for the fastball, 76 percent for the change). His curveball and slider weren’t as sharp.

Never a hard thrower, Marcum averaged 86 MPH with his fastball, a tick or two below his usual range (it’s possible that some cutters are classified as fastballs, throwing off the average, but that doesn’t seem to be the case). Of course, he relies on the fastball less than just about any starter in the game.

Marcum’s upside isn’t huge, but he did post rates of 7.31 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 4.24 FIP in 151.1 innings in 2008. It remains to be seen whether he’ll remain healthy, but Marcum’s cornucopia of pitches, solid K rate and quality control make him a good option in AL-only formats.

John Bowker, San Francisco Giants

Bowker got the start in right field for the Giants on opening day, with Nate Schierholtz relegated to bench duty. San Francisco seemingly prefers Bowker’s bat to Schierholtz’s glove.

The 26 year-old lefty hitter hasn’t done much in limited major league looks (.300 wOBA in 427 PA), straying from the strike zone often with a 31.1 outside swing percentage (25% MLB average) and a 5.4 percent walk rate. However, Bowker was the epitome of patience at Triple-A Fresno in 2009: he batted .342/.451/.596 in 450 PA, drawing a free pass 16.4 percent while also hammering the ball with a .254 Isolated Power. Clearly, the former Long Beach State Dirtbag benefitted from a BABIP over .360, but his Major League Equivalent line (MLE) was still a handy .288/.376/.466.

What do the projection systems say about the free-swinger-turned-walk-machine? CHONE forecasts a .350 wOBA, with a 9.3 percent walk rate and a .180 ISO. ZiPS is less enthusiastic, with a .340 wOBA, 8.9 BB% and a .165 ISO. Keep an eye on the Giants’ lineup-Bowker could help in NL-only leagues.

Gio Gonzalez, Oakland Athletics

The 24 year-old southpaw fascinates and frustrates with his ability to blow hitters away one inning, and then looking like he’s pitching blindfolded after being spun in circles the next. The thrice-traded Gonzalez has earned a spot in Oakland’s rotation, and he could be a nice addition for AL-only owners.

Gonzalez’s 2009 ERA (5.75) looks ugly, but he suffered from a .369 BABIP and a home run per fly ball rate nearing 14 percent (10-12% average for starters). His expected FIP (xFIP) was much better, at 4.02. His control is poor (career 5.49 BB/9, with a 54.2 first-pitch strike percentage). But with that bat-missing curve, Gio will provide plenty of K’s. CHONE thinks Gonzalez could be a league-average hurler, with a 4.57 FIP.

Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers

Following a 2007 season in which he hit .295/.353/.539 with a .380 wOBA, Hart looked like an important part of the Brew Crew’s long-term plans.

While he shouldn’t have been expected to keep producing at that level, it’s awfully disappointing that he has turned in back-to-back mundane years at the dish (.327 wOBA in 2008, .331 wOBA in 2009). In ’08, Hart still hit for power (.191 ISO) but took a hack-happy approach (4.1 BB%, 31.7 outside-swing percentage). In ’09, he showed more restraint (9.1 BB%, 23.5 O-Swing%) but his ISO fell to .158.

One of the main reasons that Hart hasn’t come close to his ’07 work is his performance against sliders. He can’t hit them, and pitchers know it. Hart’s percentage of sliders seen has gone from 18.7% in 2007, 23.5% in 2008 to 24.1% in ’09 (sixth-highest in the majors). His run value against the slider was +0.68 in ’07, -0.2 in ’08 and -1.12 in ’09.

Now, Hart may at times take a backseat to Jim Edmonds, who has gone from talking about a comeback at St. Louis’ fan fest to starting on opening day in a few short months.

Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks

Plenty of fantasy folks placed their hopes on the surgically repaired right shoulder of Webb, hoping for a return of his whiff-inducing, groundballing goodness. According to MockDraftCentral, Webb had an ADP of 35 amongst pitchers, ahead of Roy Oswalt, Ryan Dempster and John Danks, to name a few. Unfortunately, Webb may not return to the majors until June, leaving many with a busted draft pick.

Diamondbacks fans must be wondering what they have done to incur the wrath of the baseball gods: you mean, Rodrigo Lopez and Kris Benson might start games?

Jack Cust, Oakland Athletics

Cust was DAF’d by the A’s following a year in which he showed a little more aggression at the plate and a dip in power output. He could land with a club such as the White Sox, but Cust seems resigned to accepting an assignment to Triple-A. CHONE and ZiPS both project a .360ish wOBA, which would be plenty useful in most formats (you don’t have to worry about those pesky defensive problems). But, Cust’s defensive limitations do hamper his appeal to NL clubs. As a result, he might only have value in mythical Pacific Coast fantasy leagues.

John Lannan, Washington Nationals

No, this isn’t an overreaction to one especially poor start from Lannan against the Phillies. Rather, it’s just a reminder that Lannan’s peripherals haven’t come close to matching his sub-four ERA over the past few years.

Perhaps I’m totally wrong, and Lannan has some yet-to-be-discovered ability to outpitch his component stats. But I wouldn’t bet on it. The difference between the 25 year-old southpaw’s career ERA (3.99) and FIP (4.84) is substantial. Lannan gets grounders (52.4 GB%) and has decent control (3.38 BB/9), but he doesn’t fool anyone (4.56 K/9). Others have wracked their brains trying to explain Lannan’s career .276 BABIP, to little avail.

There’s nothing in his batted ball profile that would suggest that he should post a lower-than-average BABIP. Lannan’s career infield fly ball percentage (IF/FB%) is 7.1 percent, below the near eight percent MLB average. So, he’s not getting a lot of weak contact on pop ups, which are near-automatic outs. His groundball-centric style is certainly a positive in terms of limiting extra-base hits, but groundballs have a higher BABIP than fly balls. Lannan’s career BABIP on grounders is .200, while the NL average has been in the .225-.245 range in recent years. That seems likely to rise. Lannan’s career line drive rate (18.3 percent) is pretty close to the 19% MLB average.

If there’s some BABIP-suppressing skill here, I’m not seeing it. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’d bet on an ERA in the mid-to-high four’s this season for Lannan.

Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics

Cahill had a rough rookie season after a brilliant minor league career, missing few bats and getting pasted by lefties as he left his breaking stuff in his back pocket. Now, Cahill is on the shelf with a sore left (non-throwing) shoulder that could keep him out during April. After that, he could head back to Triple-A. His future remains bright, but keep in mind that Cahill had minimal experience above A-Ball entering last season and is far from a finished product.