Last night was Anthony Rizzo’s 2012 MLB debut and he started it off with a bang. He went 2-4 with a double and an RBI. He got the call up after hitting 0.342 with 23 HRs in AAA. While he has dominated AAA, here is a look at what kind of production can be expected from him in the majors this season.
On Saturday, I identified a couple of players who fantasy owners might consider buying high on. I purposely ignored players who were expected to be top guys to begin with, but were having even better season than projected (David Wright, Adam Jones), as I preferred to look at more of the cheaper players with surprising performances. Similarly, the sell low guys will be players that were expected to generate high dollar values. I think it’s tougher to recommend selling low on a player than buying high, because we always preach patience and believe that a player will bounce back to his established level of performance, rather than weight the first 3 months of the season so heavily. At the risk of being very wrong…
We are all familiar with the practice of buying low. Over the first couple of months of the season, nearly all of my trade offers involve attempting to acquire a player who has started off slowly. But have you ever bought high? Did the thought even cross your mind to target Jose Bautista in 2010 after he finished the month of May with 16 home runs? Probably not. But sometimes it could be a good idea because the other owner may be thinking he is selling high and you still get the player for cheaper then he is ultimately worth. But of course, this is a much riskier type of trade and so most shy away from it. If you have the cajones, here are some players who may be worth buying high.
No, that’s not the name of a law firm. Rather, those are the last names of three under-the-radar pitching prospects who made their MLB debuts in the past week. Click below to take a closer look at the trio, and as a bonus you’ll get not one, but two more minor leaguers nearing the bigs.
Last week, I decided to compare the SIERA marks of starting pitchers over the last 30 days with what they posted in April. The idea here was to identify potential RoS breakout candidates whose ERAs still might be hiding major improvement over the last month. Today I will look at the opposite side of the coin, those starters whose skills have declined over the last month. These pitchers might still have good ERAs and may still command a nice return in trade.
A week ago, I looked at the 10 pitchers with the largest difference between their ERA and SIERA marks; those whose ERAs have outperformed their SIERA. These were the pitchers you can expect to disappoint in the near future. Today I look at the opposite end of the spectrum, the potential improvers whose ERA has underperformed their SIERA marks.
Let’s break from the usual three-player Mining the Minors write-ups to cover more ground (or if you prefer, more bases — this is a baseball site after all). This time, we’ll hit on three pairs, with one of each position — starting pitcher, outfielder and reliever — coming from each league.
Though I have no math to back this up, anecdotally (is that a word? the red underline of death is appearing underneath it as I type!) it seems as if pitchers suddenly improve mid-season much more frequently than hitters. In other words, the light bulb goes on and a pitcher’s skills will surge in a hurry. I decided to compare SIERA over the last 30 days with SIERA in April for all starting pitchers (this was originally meant to only include American Leaguers, since I’m the AL SP man, but my mind was apparently elsewhere and I forgot to filter, oops) to see who has enjoyed the biggest declines in the metric. This is a great way to identify RoS breakout candidates by looking beyond just the ERA leaders for the month.
Third base has been a real test to the adage that baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Sticking with players through their slow starts or long stretches of vacant counting stats has no doubt tested many of you, not to mention having to plug holes when injuries arise. Keeping a pulse on third base trends, there’s a decent waiver wire pickup, an annual early June buy low candidate.
In fanatasy baseball circles, it’s likely that Trevor Plouffe has more value as a shortstop (among the multitude of positions he’s eligible at) but up until a few weeks ago, he hardly had any value whatsoever. From April 6th to May 18th, Plouffe was “hitting” .135/.264/.284 with three home runs and a pair of doubles and if not for his positional versatility, he probably would have been sent back down to the minors.
Since May 19th, however, he’s caught fire — batting .327/.351/.727 with six home runs, four doubles, 11 RBI in 57 plate appearances His overall line stands at a not-so-awe-inspiring .217/.299/.473 but it’s worth pointing out that his BABIP is only .207 on the season. During the stretch from May 19th, it was a little more league-average at .308 and he consequently posted terrific numbers. Based on his hit trajectory, his expected BABIP is about .270 on the season in large part due to an elevated fly ball rate, but while that’s perhaps not ideal, it’s certainly not .207 bad.
Note: After Tuesday night, Plouffe’s line since May 19th is now .350/.371/.783.
Every so often, I like to look at the difference between starting pitchers’ SIERA and ERA marks and rank them to determine who has been luckiest and unluckiest according to the former metric. This is an especially important exercise to do during trading season, both when looking to identify pitchers to trade for and which pitchers you own you should be looking to sell. Today I present the SIERA outperformers, those whose ERA is most below their SIERA marks. These are your potential sell high candidates.
