Archive for Stock Watch

As you are no doubt aware, Francisco Liriano was shipped off to Chicago to don White Sox on Saturday. Yesterday, we looked at the trade from a real baseball perspective and today I analyze the fantasy version. Calling Liriano’s season a roller coaster ride might even understate how up and down he has been. On Saturday, I analyzed Zack Greinke’s move to Los Angeles and took various factors into account to try projecting his RoS ERA. Unfortunately, I’m not even going to bother with that for Liriano because I certainly don’t have a clue what kind of peripheral skills he will post. However, I will try to determine how the team switch will affect his value.

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I’m on a trending binge right now and today’s American League starting pitcher spot means it’s a good time to check out the strikeout rate surgers. There are many factors that could contribute to a surge in strikeout rate and often times, these are sustainable changes that lead to an increase in true talent level. So it can be wise to check out the surgers to spot these trenders early. As usual, I checked out the last 30 day leaderboard to come up with the names.

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Yesterday, Anibal Sanchez was traded to the Detroit Tigers. It was a bold move by the Tigers to help them make the playoffs. Today, I am going to look at a few changes that can be expected from him because of his new surroundings and any chance for regression (good or bad).

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Recently here at Rotographs, we released our rest of season rankings for starting pitchers, I had Tim Lincecum rated as the sixth-highest fantasy pitcher. To say the least, I took a little heat for that ranking. I will try to justify the ranking today.

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On Thursday, I looked at American League starting pitchers who showed up on the last 30 day SIERA leaderboards that would be considered surprising. Today, I will cover the entire league, but look at the opposite end of the spectrum. These are the pitchers whose skills have really declined over the last 30 days. Is it the beginning of a trend or just small sample randomness over a long season? Let’s find out.

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A simple way to determine which pitchers are “hot” is to use the Split filter and choose any one of the small time frames and then sort by SIERA. Since I think subtle changes in mechanics and other various factors could actually trigger a performance spike, I believe looking at the SIERA leaders over the last 30 days could be useful despite the small sample size. Here are some of the surprise leaders in the metric over that time span.

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On Saturday, I analyzed the five hitters whose HR/FB ratios have increased the most since last season and using various tools and metrics, tried to determine whether we might see a decline in the second half. Today I will look at the opposite end of the spectrum, those hitters whose HR/FB ratios have declined the most. Will they experience a second half power surge?

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C.J. Wilson was paid $77.5M this off season to come in and be a front line starter for the Angels. With Jered Weaver and Dan Haren already on the team, he wasn’t going to be the only ace of the staff, but he has pitched like one. It is now time to sell high on Wilson’s great 1st half of the season. He has 9 Wins, a 2.33 ERA (6th among qualified starters) and a 1.17 WHIP. These stats put him within the top 20 SP in production for the 2012 season (16th SP with ESPN’s Player Rater). His stats don’t match his perifial numbers so he has a good chance of regressing quite a bit in the second half of the season.

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One infielder, one catcher, one pitcher. What more could you want, really?

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While big-time prospects like Trevor Bauer, Anthony Rizzo and Martin Perez got called up this week — you can find takes on those three here, here and here — these three lesser-knowns should be making their way to a ballpark near you soon.

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