Surprise AL SP Positive Trenders
A simple way to determine which pitchers are “hot” is to use the Split filter and choose any one of the small time frames and then sort by SIERA. Since I think subtle changes in mechanics and other various factors could actually trigger a performance spike, I believe looking at the SIERA leaders over the last 30 days could be useful despite the small sample size. Here are some of the surprise leaders in the metric over that time span.
Justin Masterson – 3.04 SIERA
After struggling with his control in April and through May, Masterson has really turned it on in recent weeks. As an extreme ground ball pitcher and possessing an above average strikeout rate, it was really just the control holding him back from a similar season to last. Of course, as I type this, I realize that Masterson walked a whopping 7 batters in just 4.1 innings last night, reminding us of the danger of drawing conclusions from small sample sizes. However, we can take from his outing that every pitcher is going to have outings where their control is simply not there and it doesn’t necessarily mean it is the beginning of a trend. Masterson’s true talent walk rate is likely closest to what he had posted prior to last night’s outing (3.6 BB/9) and he should now be valued as you had before the year.
Luis Mendoza – 3.22
Mendoza has shuttled between the starting rotation and middle relief all season, but his recent stint as a starter has been excellent. He has displayed strong control and a sudden penchant for striking hitters out. He is also giving his infielders a workout, posting a near 57% ground ball rate on the season. I am not aware of any changes he has made that may explain the increase in strikeout rate, though since rejoining the rotation, only his recent outing against the Blue Jays resulting in a SwStk% above the league average. So it seems the high K/9 is a bit flukey, while his F-Strike% also doesn’t exactly match with his low walk rate. You could probably do worse in AL-Only leagues, but I still wouldn’t touch him in any other league.
Dylan Axelrod – 3.72
As a 26-year old, Axelrod isn’t exactly a prospect. No matter though, as he has posted an above average ground ball rate along with good control and solid strikeout rate. His SwStk% is well above average and fully supports a near 8.0 strikeout rate despite a fastball that doesn’t even average 90.0 miles per hour. With a weak fastball, he has used his slider a crazy 39% of the time, which is likely a big reason for the elevated SwStk%. While this can’t be good for his long-term ability to remain healthy, fantasy owners shouldn’t complain for this season. A below average F-Strike% does suggest a walk rate spike is coming, though he has always shown good control in the minors and it’s possible the F-Strike% rises to match the BB/9 rather than the other way around. Worth a gamble in AL-Only leagues and I would prefer him to Mendoza.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Too bad Axlerod just got bumped out of the starting rotation.
which is too bad. I was hoping the White Sox would give him a chance since he as pitched against Bos, Tor, Tex, NYY, Mil and Det this season…yikes
Those are some ugly matchups, but if you’re gonna see what you’ve got in a pitcher there’s no better test than those teams.
What do you think about Wei-Yin Chen and Marco Estrada over the rest of the season? I’ve got a waiver claim for Bud Norris in and can’t figure out who to drop. I’m thinking it should be Chen with since he’s got the tougher matchups and lowest strikout potential. Am I overthinking it?
Yeah, I think you’re overthinking it. When in doubt take the NL guy over the AL guy, the NL Central guy over the AL East guy, and the higher K guy. Estrada gives up too many fly balls and home runs, but that slight hit to the ERA I’ll take, given the great WHIP and K’s.
First of all, stay away from Justin Masterson. BA noted early on that his low arm slot leads to an inconsistent delivery, which makes his command come and go, specially with his slider which he uses a ton. Thats not to say he doesn’t have value, just that those 7 BB performances aren’t going away — he’s got a ton of sink on his fastball and run on his slider, so if he loses his release point, he may as well be pitching in the dark.
Second, if you like to live dangerously, at least play the matchups. The same wide release point that makes his slider deadly on Righties, flashes the ball early for Lefties, giving him a healthy platoon split. If you look at when he’s got touched up this year, its against lefties (see Joel Maddon’s policy to throw every lefty he’s got against Masterson). And if you look at when he’s done well, its when a stellar tactician like Dusty Baker starts 6 Righties against him. (Note: How in gods name does Dusty still have a job?)
I knew Masterson had usually done poorly against the Rays, glad to know there’s a real reason.
Late to the party, but Mendoza added a new pitch that Dave Eiland tauhgt him…trying to remember what it is…cutter, maybe? I’m having a vague recollection that they said it was a four-seam cutter.