Archive for Stock Watch

The only thing Jean Segura and Mike Moustakas have in common is that they’re both professional baseball players and they happen to be featured in the title of this post. Other than that, their on-field performances are in different area codes. Different time zones. Galaxies even.

Obviously, Segura has been holy hell awesome and Moustakas has been my God-awful. But we’re getting to a point in the season now where a couple weeks of trending in either direction can be masked pretty well by their current accumulation of at bats. Perhaps for good reason — it keeps the smaller sample monster at bay. Regardless, there are some recent developments with these two that merit attention.

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With the start of every month, we like to adjust the position tiers to help guide you towards expected risers and steer you away from some of the expected fallers. But obviously, the beginning of the month doesn’t always coincide with the best time for waivers, so I thought a mid-month stock report might help put guys on your radar that may not necessarily have been there before. Or, conversely, take them off your radar to save you some aggravation. Not every catcher will be mentioned so if your favorite doesn’t appear here, it’s not a personal slight. But feel free to mention him in the comments should he actually be doing something notable. So without further ado… Read the rest of this entry »

Today brings another round of bullish reports. If you’re looking for cheap and readily available outfield help, today is your lucky day.

Brandon Moss
Over the past 14 days, Brandon Moss is 11-for-35 — with five of those hits going for home runs. He also drove in 10 and scored seven runs over that time frame. Following last season’s breakout performance was going to be a difficult task, though he came out swinging in April, May saw him struggle. Many owners on the fence about Moss ditched him during his May slump, and given his .153/.262/.333 line in 84 plate appearances, we shouldn’t be quick to judge those that were quick to drop him. Of course months — and seasons, for that matter — are all arbitrary end points and we can’t get too caught up in them.
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After posting the all bullish stock watch two weeks ago, now the tables have turned and we’ll focus on the bearish report. This isn’t to say that the players here have no value, just less value than their name or draft position may have once yielded them.

Emilio Bonifacio
After stealing 40 bases in 2011 and 30 last season, Emilio Bonifacio finds himself well off of that pace this year. Last season he appeared in just 64 games but still managed those 30 steals, whereas this year he has already appeared in 54 games and has just seven bags to show for it. His strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is down, and his triple slash is a gruesome .206/.236/.315. A large part of his struggles can be attributed to his .264 BABIP, which is almost 60 points below his .330 career average. That being said, the skepticism comes from seeing Bonifacio strikeout almost once every four plate appearances. His 10.1 SwStr% is a career worst mark and his 35.8% O-Swing% and his 51% Swing% are both the worst since his rookie season.

Bonifacio may be a prime example of a solid utility player being overwhelmed when given a starters playing time. His projections aren’t kind to him either, as ZiPS and Steamer both predict a batting average around .250, 20 runs scored, and 15ish stolen bases the rest of the season. With Jose Reyes playing in simulated games and not terribly far from a rehab assignment and Maicer Izturis and Munenori Kawasaki both looking for playing time in the middle infield, Bonifacio’s grasp on the second base job looks shaky. Bonifacio isn’t largely owned, just 11% ESPN, 17% Yahoo!, and 28% in CBS leagues, but it may be time to call it a day with him.
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Just over 50 games into the season — and about 200 plate appearances in — we have a little bit more information to judge our players on. One of the key statistics that tends to stabilize around the 200 PA mark is BB%. We’ll call today the all optimistic or all bullish version. Next Wednesday will feature the updated tier rankings, but perhaps two weeks time will bring us an all bearish write up.
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As we’ve discussed a few times already this year, knowing when to officially cut bait seems to be a lost art form in the fantasy world. All too often, owners hold onto a sell-high candidate for too long and by the time they get around to shopping him, he’s in the midst of an expected slump and every owner declines to deal because they know you’re going to drop the guy soon enough anyway. Either that or you’ve senselessly fallen in love with the hot start and your false hope causes you to endure weeks of 0-for’s, foolishly thinking he’s going to get back to that early-season dreamland where you first met. Whatever the case may be, it’s important for you to recognize when it’s time to say goodbye to a player as your team will only suffer each and every year until you do. So to help with your fantasy regularity, here’s a few players you should consider dumping to lighten your load. Read the rest of this entry »

Today is southpaw day apparently, as a trio of lefties get newsed and noted, two of which are named Scott. Is there another left-handed Scott pitcher I should have included instead of Hector Santiago?

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While Ike Davis may not have been the super-trendy sleeper this year like he was going into 2012, he was still marketed as a nice buy-low candidate after a rough opening two months last year masked the significant improvements he made in the second half of the season. I (along with countless other owners) scooped him up for $5-8 in more than a couple drafts this year, and even went to $14 in our new Fangraphs Ottoneu staff league. But on the young season, “Vanilla Ike” has done nothing but disappoint to the tune of a .165/.265/.318 triple slash. After opening the year as the Mets cleanup hitter, he has been dropped a couple times in the lineup and there are even rumblings about a possible minor league demotion. Eek.

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We’re three and a half weeks into the season and nearly at the point where the first major pitching metric stabilizes. We know that K/PA (or K% on the player pages) stabilizes at 150 batters faced, and starting pitchers are creeping ever so closer to that minimum. So at the very least, we have to start taking strikeout rates seriously, but that’s really about it. Let’s now take a look around the American League and some of the movers and shakes in starting pitcher land.

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We’re about 20 games into the season and certain players are beginning to standout — some for good reasons, and some for bad. Today I also attempt to coin (you’ll get that joke at the end) a new nickname for a player.

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