Catcher Stock Watch
With the start of every month, we like to adjust the position tiers to help guide you towards expected risers and steer you away from some of the expected fallers. But obviously, the beginning of the month doesn’t always coincide with the best time for waivers, so I thought a mid-month stock report might help put guys on your radar that may not necessarily have been there before. Or, conversely, take them off your radar to save you some aggravation. Not every catcher will be mentioned so if your favorite doesn’t appear here, it’s not a personal slight. But feel free to mention him in the comments should he actually be doing something notable. So without further ado…
Rising
Mike Zunino, SEA — So let’s lead with the most obvious here as the Mariners backstop gets a huge boost after a relatively unexpected call-up. Things were looking bleak as he struggled at Triple-A Tacoma and saw others pass by him on their way up, but the Mariners finally realized that despite some batting woes in the minors he was really their best possible option. He’s not exactly off to the best start as the strikeouts are high and the average is low, but it’s only been 22 plate appearances so let’s exhibit some patience here. He’ll make some adjustments while he cuts his teeth in the majors with full-time action.
Ryan Doumit, MIN — The batting average is down but his walk and strikeout rates have shown marked improvement and he’s on-pace to just about match last year’s totals. Dig a little deeper and you’ll also see that he has shown steady improvement each month and is finishing the first half strong. Even better is that, even with the presence of Oswaldo Arcia, Doumit isn’t losing playing time like he did back in April. People tend to overlook his in-season growth and simply look at the .240 average with just eight home runs, so you still might be able to land him for cheap.
Staying Level
Jason Castro, HOU — While his batting average and OBP have seemingly leveled off and dropped a bit here in June, he has been able to maintain a strong ISO and continues to surprise with his power production. His struggles against left-handed pitching have continued and he’ll still sit against some of the tougher southpaws, but when he’s in the lineup, he’s batting third and the run production from the Astros is suddenly not the league joke anymore. If you’ve been using him here in the first half, you can continue to ride him the rest of the way.
Chris Iannetta, LAA — To paraphrase, he is exactly who I thought he was. He’s nothing but a decent walk rate. While Iannetta may be helpful in OBP leagues (and in just that category, mind you), he doesn’t offer you much else and that fact is as evident now as it was back in April…..as it has been for some time now. If you like to treat your catchers as mere throw-aways and couldn’t care less about the position, then he’s your man. Otherwise, you need to move along.
Falling
Kurt Suzuki, WAS — He played well in the second half last year when he arrived in Washington and injuries to Wilson Ramos had him locked in as the primary catcher for the Nationals to open the season. He wasn’t great, but he was moderately passable. He’s made slight improvements with his strikeout rate, but his walk rate continues to fluctuate and his OBP has dropped each month. His average is also taking a hit and he hasn’t hit a home run since April. With Ramos still needing a rehab assignment, Suzuki may finish the first half as the starting catcher but he’s sure not opening the second half that way.
Evan Gattis, ATL — If anything, this trip to the disabled list is saving him all sorts of fantasy embarrassment and may just prolong what little trade value he has left because no one is getting to see, first-hand, the drop in playing time and subsequent slump anymore. But for those who watched closely, it was easy to see as Gattis lost a significant amount of at-bats once Brian McCann and Jason Heyward returned and was just 2-for-26 over his last 11 games. Sure, those two hits were home runs, but how many 0-for’s can you take just to get those two home runs? He’s like Happy Gilmore at the driving range before Chubbs helped him with his short game. He’s a novelty. A gimmick, if you will. Without full-time at-bats, he’s not going to develop any momentum and his power numbers will suffer.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com
Do you see Carlos Ruiz performing in line with his ROS ZiPS projections?
I don’t necessarily think he’ll hit as high as .280 but given the expected loss of playing time due to his banged up body, I’d say they’re pretty close.
The numbers for Yasmani Grandal haven’t been very encouraging so far but I’ve managed to see a few of his at bats since coming off of his suspension and his approach at the plate has looked (to me) pretty solid. I feel like he’s barreling the ball and he seems to have a good feel for the zone. I’ve got both him and Zunino as my catchers (I more or less punted in a deep one catcher league), do you feel better about Zunino than Grandal moving forward?
I’m actually leaning Grandal.
(points league, strikeouts are penalized)
I picked up Grandal and stashed him a week or so before he came back. His LD rate is very high, and he’s walking more than he’s struck out with a low BABIP to boot. I think he’s pretty much run into bad luck at this point and I’m looking for him to be solid. Not 144 wRC+ like last year solid, but still pretty good.
is Carlos Santana going to get back to a modicum of his early season success? He walks a ton but hasn’t been hitting for average as of late.
How about Lucroy? He’s heating up nicely, but there’s still an inexplicable (to me) split where he’s abominable at Miller (never a problem before) but strong on the road.
While I don’t normally use this space to promote my personal site, outside of the mini-bio, I actually had some thoughts on Lucroy’s strange splits this season and wrote about them here: http://www.rotobuzzguy.com/fantasy-baseball-strategy-looking-beyond-the-numbers/
Do you prefer Victor Martinez or Jason Castro ROS?
I think I would actually roll with V-Mart and hope that he turns things around in the second half. I just think we’ve seen Castro’s ceiling here.
Keep the ailing Montero or pick up Doumit?
I think they’re pretty close, but I’m sticking with Montero and hoping for the best.
Should Lucroy be listed as a riser? Check the splits. He was unlucky with a v low BABIP in first 6 or so weeks of season.
Also, Salvador Perez is hitting from the three spot. I’d expect the next 2 months to be better than the previous 2.
Lucroy’s BABIP does seem low, and is well below his career numbers, though he doesn’t have a huge sample in his career to be super confident about. But it’s not unreasonable to assume it will tick up and his other numbers will go with it. Might be a smart buy-low candidate now, before that happens.
On the other hand, Castro’s BABIP seems a touch high and might be be a candidate for a bit of a drop. (Though again, without a lot of career numbers it’s hard to say that with a lot of confidence).
I’ve been playing Doumit for about a month now, but our one catcher league has a lot of names sitting in the FA pool including Lucroy, Salty, and Arrencibia. I have burning moves on catchers so I’ve just been holding onto Doumit. Thoughts?
What are the chances Josh Phegly gets the call this year?
Considering the average and strikeout rate of Flowers right now, I’d say the chances are pretty good. He’s on the 40-man roster already, so it wouldn’t take much to bring him up.
Zunino is fine if you’re in a dynasty league or otherwise socking him away for the future, but right now the very same things that made him struggle in Tacoma are making him struggle in Seattle. And while he might be getting all the instructional benefits of being in majors, he’s also no longer facing AAA pitching (and those benefits may not be so beneficial: just look at how Dustin Ackley went…and what he’s done since going back to Tacoma). It might all come together for Zunino at any time, but that time may not be this year.