American League Outfield Stock Watch
We’re about 20 games into the season and certain players are beginning to standout — some for good reasons, and some for bad. Today I also attempt to coin (you’ll get that joke at the end) a new nickname for a player.
Bullish:
Alex Rios
Not only is he currently hitting .300 with five home runs and three steals, Alex Rios is also posting the strongest walk rate of his career. In addition to his increased walk rate, he is also posting the second lowest strikeout rate we’ve seen from him. We’re still dealing with less than 100 plate appearances at this point, however the early signs from Rios are great. His 42.8% Swing% would also represent the best of his career, and Swing% tends to normalize around the 50 PA mark. It may not be hard and conclusive evidence, but Rios is certainly hitting the ball better. His early season hot streak isn’t a BABIP illusion either, as his .296 BABIP is actually below his .308 career average mark. If (and that is the keyword) Rios keeps this up, he will end up as a top 50 player. I’m not quite to that point of believing in Rios just yet, but it looks like Rios will get a decent bump up in next weeks tiered rankings updates.
Austin Jackson
I may have whiffed horrible on some of my bold predictions (Jose Reyes, I’m looking at you), but it appears as though Austin Jackson has indeed rediscovered his speed. He has five steals in 18 games and is yet to be thrown out. His .291 average is similar to the .300 mark that he posted last year, and his GB% is very similar as well. Last season Jackson posted a 42.2 GB% and this season he has a 42.9% rate. We’re not quite to the point where batted ball information is fully stabilized, but the signs point to Jackson having another big season. Even if Jackson only hits 10 home runs, he isn’t in your lineup for power. Expect plenty of runs and steals with a solid average. Anything on top of that is just being spoiled.
Josh Reddick
How can someone be bullish on a player hitting .164/.257/.279? At this point in the season it is about process as much as it is results. Clearly Reddick’s results have been less than what people have hoped for, however his .200 BABIP is the real culprit. His strikeout and walk rates are on par with his career norms and his Swing% is actually below average. From a fan perspective, Reddick does not seem to be pressing at the plate or swinging at everything in an attempt to break out of a slump in one swing. His average is down, but he has 12 RBIs and and a surprising five stolen bases already and hasn’t yet been caught. If the steals become a real part of Reddick’s game, that adds an extra dimension to his value. His rate stats will bounce back with time and that makes for a very good buy-low candidate.
Bearish:
Adam Jones
The time to sell high on Adam Jones appears to be on us, at least in re-draft leagues. Currently hitting a robust .354/.376/.549, Jones has 10 extra-base hits to go along with 11 singles. If you think that hits are falling at a very rapid pace for Jones you would be correct, as his .426 BABIP is over 100 points higher than his .319 career average. Make no mistakes, Jones is a very good player and should hit well the rest of the season, however he won’t maintain this torrid pace for long. If you can move Jones at his current price, that is like selling Bitcoins before they tanked last week. Like Bitcoins, Jones is a fairly common commodity that has a value that isn’t stable just yet. Investing in either is a high risk, high reward operation. If you hang on to Jones and win your league, maybe you should invest in Bitcoins with the winnings. It would have to be an omen.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
You’re not scared of Reddick’s insanely low LD rate, like 10%, and his crazy high IFFB rate 20%?
I try not to rely on LD% and instead lean on FB/FB ratio. The stringer bias, however small, skews the data on LD%.
What’s a ‘stringer bias?’
The misclassification of balls in play. For example, one stringer may call a ball in play a fly ball, another may call it a line drive.
Furthermore, from exactly where the ball is observed can have a large effect on the classification as well. For further reading, I suggest this great piece from the THT archives by Colin Wyers, now at BP:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/when-is-a-fly-ball-a-line-drive/
Any examples of a reasonable return for A. Jones?
What are you looking for?
If you need SP he should fetch anyone outside of the top 8 pitchers.
For RP, I would take nothing less than two sure-thing closers or Kimbrel + a lesser OF in return.
What does your team need?
My team needs AVG, but A. Jones is my highest AVG hitter right now. I have no one else even hitting .300. My team is also in need of steals and saves.
Can you give a few examples of hitters that would be good to buy in exchange for Adam Jones? I have Jones but would need to send him to someone for the right price. Any names would be great.
I have to assume you’re in a redraft, standard 5×5 league. With that in mind. I’d move Jones for:
Todd Frazier + top tier closer
straight up for Dustin Pedroia
straight up for Adrian Gonzalez
Aaron Hill + a low tier closer
Adam LaRoche + Dexter Fowler
Something along those lines is where I would start my asking price for Jones. Test the market from there, and adjust accordingly.
There’s no way id ever even consider trading him for any of those packages except maybe Pedroia….LaRoche and Fowler I would laugh at if someone sent that to me in my dynasty league where I own Jones. IMO, hes just never gotten the respect he deserves because he plays in Baltimore. Bottom line is that he’s still young, and last year, he played in all 162 games, posting .287, 103 runs, 38 doubles, 32 HR, 82 RBI, and 16 SB.
What about the fact that all of those numbers you listed were career highs with the exception of RBIs, where he was one shy of tying his career best? You don’t expect an ounce of regression from last year, let alone his BABIP this year? Yes he is still young and still on the upside, but I think he has more or less reached his ceiling.
Been wanting to ask this, and don’t really know where, but I was wondering how repeatable of a skill is IFFB% for pitchers and is it known where it normalizes? It seems to me like it’s highly luck based, but I’m not sure.
I think a pitcher has an ability to induce IFFB on a repeatably (to a point, of course) degree.
Dave Cameron and Steve are both infinitely smarter than myself, so I’ll allow their words to continue:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/infield-flies-fip-and-war/
Thanks for the response and the link. Appreciate it.
Jackson’s K/BB rate has basically done a 180 in the last week/week and a half. Any cause for concern?
Not yet, no. His Swing% is league average, his O-Swing% is below average, and his SwStr% is also below average. I’m not worried.
Just curious, who’d you rather have in an RBI/RUNS/OBP/TOTAL BASES/STEALS league — Jackson or Josh Hamilton? I say Jackson, but I’ve been having this debate with my buddy who owns Hamilton. He keeps bringing it up like I’m a fool. Am I a fool (specifically as it relates to this question)? Full disclosure I own Jackson, so I’m not exactly unbiased.
I think it Jackson has it, but it is close. Damn close. TB instead of HR help Jackson, but not much.
TB and RBI’s definitely go to Hamilton, but they’ve been neck-and-neck in terms of OBP since 2011.
Runs will probably be tilted towards Jackson this year SB won’t be close.
Yeah, I’d say Jackson, but I’d be willing to change my answer upon hearing a good counter-argument.
Thanks for the response. I agree they’re close, but Jackson’s youth and upside tips it for me. He’s on the upswing, Hamilton seems to be on the downswing. Although this line of thinking has hurt me dearly in the past. I’m deathly afraid of investing in a big name player during a “cliff” season. Weirdly enough, it feels like Jackson’s following the Curtis Granderson career path of going from basically a speed guy to a power guy who still runs, just not as much. Not sure he’ll ever hit 30 homers, but 20 and a bunch of doubles seems within reach, possibly even this year.
My team needs better avg and more SB. The problem I have with trading A. Jones is that he’s the only guy I have that is hitting above .300 right now. My team also could use saves.
Saves can be found on the waiver wire. The Cubs bullpen is a situation in flux and I’d keep an eye on things in St. Louis too.
Selling A.Jones based on a high BAPIP in mid/late April seems crazy. Solid investment. No one is buying him as elite/top-20/$30+. He is what we thought he was.
especially considering he has a career .319 BABIP
Selling high is what you want to do on any player at any time. For the right package, I would have traded away Trout last year.
Every player has a price. If you can convince an owner to pay above the market value for a player, exploit it. That changes for keeper leagues of course, but for re-draft leagues, to have anyone on a personal “don’t trade” list is crazy to me.