Archive for Stock Watch

The Astros have so far been the major mover this offseason. After signing Charlie Morton earlier this week, they picked up Brian McCann and Josh Reddick yesterday. The team has already remade themselves and the offseason has just started.

With the offseason just getting started, it is tough to get a good feeling on what the Astros will end up looking like going into spring training. When the offseason is nearly over, fantasy owners will need to sit down and figure how the playing time will get divided up among the players in Houston to help determine final values.

Astros sign Josh Reddick

Josh Reddick is one of those players in I hate drafting. If Reddick is an option on my draft sheet, I usually go another direction as Reddick offers little to no upside and downside. He is the safe play and for some people, the right move for them. The 30-year-old has had some up-and-down performances like the 32 home runs in 2012 or the single stolen base in 2014 but otherwise he is good for a dozen home runs and 10 steals with a .270 AVG.

Over the past four seasons, Reddick has traded off some power for a better contact rate. His strikeouts are down (20% to 13%) with his batting average being up (.226 to .281). While he has changed some, it is not enough to move his fantasy value.

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Braves sign R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon

Well, the Braves used to be a young, rebuilding team. Now they are a slightly older rebuilding team. Signing the pair helps solidify the Braves rotation and suck up a ton of innings.

As for the changes in fantasy implications, I see none for Bartolo Colon. He is staying in the same division and still on a decent offense to get Wins. As long as he continues to command his 88 mph fastball, he will be playable in deep leagues and as a spot starter. I am pretty sure people know what they are getting from him at this point in his career.

The R.A. Dickey signing is a little more interesting. Dickey has been pretty much irrelevant in the past couple of seasons except for generating a ton of subpar rate stats for the teams brave or desperate enough to roster him.

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First, a few words about my offseason writing at Rotographs. Besides reporting any possible relevant fantasy news, I plan on systematically going through two groups of players and work on their 2017 values. I will start at the top of the 2017 rankings and also somewhere in the middle and work my way down each list. I may be able to do a handful of players each article or I might by limited to just the two players. Either way, I will start putting together a 2017 draft ranking.

Additionally, I will try to follow Eno’s schedule for the other writers (e.g. players on playoff teams for the next couple of weeks). If they are looking at outfielders for that specific week, I will also look at outfielders.

The other project I will work through is being able to put a better evaluation on prospects for fantasy purposes. I will use the evaluations of various prospect writers and publications and put their evaluations into something which can be used in fantasy circles. I have some ideas of what I want to accomplish, but I am sure there will be some roadblocks and detours on the way. I will start this series Friday.

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Today represents the final Prospect Stock Watch of the year… Soon, we’ll be transitioning to the annual series called ‘A Minor Review of 2016: ’ so keep your eye out for that feature. Today’s final stock watch looks at an infielder with crazy-good contact skills, a ready-for-The-Show slugger, and sleeper outfield prospect.

Max Schrock | 2B | Athletics
ETA: 2017
Value: Rising

There aren’t many big leaguers like Schrock — who was recently traded from Washington to Oakland. He makes a crazy amount of contact and his strikeout rate actually sits below 10% in his two-year pro career. That’s allowed him to produce a .325 batting average. The downside to his game, though, is that he’s almost 100% reliant on his ability to hit for average as he doesn’t walk much and has almost zero power. At 5-8, 180 pounds — and with a line-drive approach — he doesn’t project to add much pop. As a result, while the contact is impressive, he probably doesn’t project as anything more than a big league utility player or second-division starter at second base. Schrock, 21, has played all but 12 games in his career at second base so it’s probably about time that Oakland begins to expand his defensive repertoire. With that said, second base has been a blackhole for the A’s so the young infielder is likely earmarked for a shot at the position in mid-to-late 2017 unless the club looks at other internal and external options.

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Chad Kuhl: Quick Look

The 23-year-old righty has been getting some love because of his improved second half when he has posted a 2.37 ERA with 11.3% K%-BB% and a 50% GB%.

I will start with his 2016 MLB.com grades of:

• Fastball: 60
• Slider: 50
• Changeup: 45
• Control: 50
• Overall: 50

His grades weren’t this high until this year. Most places saw him as a low-level bullpen arm.

Year(publication): Overall grade
2016 (BA): 40
2015 (BA): 45
2015 (MLB): 45

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Today’s Prospect Stock Watch looks at an underrated Yankees prospect, a top draft pick from 2015 and a hard-throwing, triple-A reliever.

Miguel Andujar | 3B | Yankees
ETA: 2018
Value: Rising (Underrated)

The Yankees system is loaded with talent thanks to some recent trades, as well as heavy investments in the international market. Andujar — a 2011 signee for $750,000 — gets kind of overlooked but he has the makings of a solid big leaguer. His best tool is a rocket arm that should allow him to stick at third base even if his range is just average. The 21-year-old also has above-average raw power even though he has yet to tap into it consistently in game situations (11 homers, 22 doubles in 119 games in ’16). Andujar doesn’t walk a ton but he’ll take some pitches and he strikes out less than the typical slugging prospect (just 62 Ks in 459 at-bats). He also a decent hitter and could produce a .250-.270 average in his prime.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look a collection of prospects from AAA, AA and single-A, including a flame throwing pitcher that has yet to make things click, a young third baseman oozing with potential, and a shortstop getting ready to break out — perhaps in the mold of Jose Altuve.

Austin Riley | 3B | Braves
ETA: 2019
Value: Rising

Selected 41st overall in 2015, I immediately became a fan of Riley and he’s continued to get better in 2016. The 19-year-old infielder should have power to spare as he fully matures into a big league hitter. He’s already shown good in-game pop in low-A ball in a league that doesn’t tend to give up many home runs. Riley has 16 homers, good for third place in the league and his 34 doubles also rank third. The biggest question around the young hitter’s offence is his discipline. He’s struck out 135 times in 116 games — with just 36 walks. In only his first full season, though, the developing power-hitter will need some time to better recognize spin and understand how pitchers work to him. In the field, he has a good chance to remain at third base thanks to his strong arm. The Braves have some depth at third base ahead of Riley but no one that should be considered a roadblock.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at two young lower-level arms that could develop into impact arms for their respective clubs… and a little-known slugging first base prospect on a collision course with Colorado.

Thomas Szapucki | LHP | Mets
ETA: 2019
Value: Rising

The Mets have developed some impressive young arms in recent years and Szapucki is another interesting pitching prospect on the way. But Mets fans will have to be patient. The 20-year-old lefty has spent the entire year in short-season ball and likely won’t enter full-season ball until 2017. There are some red flags with his delivery, which leads to inconsistent control and command, but Szapucki can hit the mid-90s with his heater and shows a curveball with plus potential. He’s struck out 86 batters in 52 innings and has held hitters to a .145 batting average. Personally, I see the young lefty developing into a dominating reliever like Andrew Miller but the Mets will no doubt keep him in the starting rotation for the foreseeable future and hope his change-up comes along and that he can smooth out the delivery.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we review two underrated prospects and an outfielder that has all but sewn up a starting gig for 2017 (which might begin as soon as this September).

Manny Margot | OF | Padres
ETA: mid-2017
Value: Rising

One of the top prospect targets during the Padres’ great dismantling in the winter of 2015-16, Margot has had a consistent first year with his new organization. The former Red Sox outfield prospect received an aggressive assignment to triple-A in 2016 despite having played just 64 games at double-A in ’15 (with a modest .745 OPS). He’s struck out just 44 times in 104 games this season and has shown his good speed by swiping 25 bases (in 36 tries). He has yet to tap into his raw power on a consistent basis but he’s flashed solid gap pop. The Padres’ outfield is a wasteland of no-name outfielders but look for that to change with the promotion of this 21 year old (and eventually Hunter Renfroe). Look for Margot to earn a September call-up and assume a starting position at the beginning of 2017.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at a rising pitcher from the National League and a couple of shortstops on different ends of the development spectrum.

Mitch Keller | RHP | Pirates
ETA: 2019
Value: Rising

Keller, 20, reminds me a little bit of Jameson Taillon — as a pitcher with some giddy-up on his fastball that has above-average control at an early stage of the development curve. The 2014 second-round pick is still working to polish his command but he could eventually possess three average or better offerings, including a fastball that currently touches the mid-90s. He’s not flashy but Keller has 112 strikeouts in 107.1 innings and does a nice job of keeping the ball in the park. He also has a strong frame that suggests he could develop into an innings-eater in the middle of the Pirates rotation. The club has some depth in the big league rotation so Keller can move at his own pace and won’t be rushed in this system.

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