Archive for Stock Watch

Valuing Danny Duffy

Putting a future value on Danny Duffy is fairly difficult because he has never performed like he is right now. Here are some of his stats after his one run complete game last night.

• 9 wins
• 2.82 ERA, 3.14 FIP
• 10.0 K/9
• 1.8 BB/9
• 1.0 HR/9

Let’s start with the biggest changes and the one value which sticks out, the 10.0 K/9. Duffy is getting more strikeouts by getting hitters to swing at his pitches at career high rate (52%) and they make contact at a career-low rate (72%). This dual combination has led to a career high swinging strike rate (14%). By using the simple rule K% = 2 * SwStr%, Duffy is projected to have a 28% K% and it is 29% this season. With these matching up, I expect little regression with his strikeout rate.

A search for why the transformation as occurred begins with a 1.5 mph increase in his fastball velocity. The velocity increase raised his swinging strike rate on the pitch to a 13.6%. With the fastball velocity increase, his other pitches are playing up with his slider (15%) and change (21%) being at career highs in swinging strike percentage. I am not sure why these two pitches are performing better this season. They made be playing off his fastball as hitters are concentrating on his fastball. The pitches have a bit more movement and this could be the cause. Also, he may have changed his deception some. Or it could be a combination of several factors. All I know it is working.

Besides the increase strikeouts, Duffy continues to bring is walk rate under control which hurt his value early in his career. In 2012, his BB/9 was at 5.9 and this season it is a third of that value (1.8). The drop in walks along with the increase in strikeouts put his season’s K%-BB% at 23% for 6th best in the league.

The final aspect to understand with Duffy is he lives up in the strike zone and will give up a ton of fly balls which hurts and helps him. More fly balls mean more home runs and he will likely always have an HR/9 at or above 1.0. One the good side, the additional fly balls lead to more easy outs and he will normally have a suppressed BABIP (.286 on career) and an ERA less than his FIP (3.58 ERA vs 3.98 FIP in his career).

The big question is if Duffy can keep the high strikeout and low walk values going forward. It’s tough to tell, but we still have a month and a half of starts to monitor. Additionally, Duffy pitches at a spring training park with a Pitchf/x system installed so we will have an idea where his velocity sits next spring. I see his 2017 value being a major discussion point this offseason.

What’s left of Carlos Gomez?

Gomez was designated for assignment by the Astros and may end up a free agent soon. He was a top hitter from 2012 to 2014 when he averaged over 20 HR, 35 SB, and .270 AVG per season.

Examining his stats, the two big keys to his decline are his declining power and complete inability to make contact this season. With his power, it climbed steadily until he was 27 and has been falling fast as seen here.

Additionally, his Contact% (66%) abruptly fell to a career low. Gomez has always been a free swinger, so with his ability to make contact deteriorating, he has seen his strikeout rate jump 10 percentage points to 31% and batting average drop to .210.

Looking forward, overcoming both factors is going to be tough for him. He has not been able to stop the three-year decline in power. Even if he does, how much will it jump up? I don’t see him turning this issue around much. I could see him make quite a bit more contact since the drop was all at once. Even if the contact rate increase, will the lack of power just make him a bottom of the order player which produces some stolen bases?

With him, I am watching two items. Where he ends up this year and does that team try to make an improvement in his contact rate. The second is what his spring training and early season contact rate are next year. Right now, I don’t see him being productive and should only be taken as a late-round flier.

Michael Pineda’s Sky High ERA

Michael Pineda has seen a nice steady rise in his velocity to go with a 10.4 K/9 and a reasonable 2.6 BB/9.

With these great numbers, Pineda has a 5.07 ERA because he is getting hit hard as seen by his 1.4 HR/9 and .338 BABIP. The biggest issue I see with Pineda is he is basically just a fastball-slider pitcher (rarely throws a bad change). Hitters are holding off swinging at the slider (which he rarely throws for strikes) and looking for his fastball. Here are the triple slash lines when he is ahead, even, or behind in the count.

Behind: .345/.510/.628
Even: .312/.319/.563
Ahead: .186/.192/.314

He becomes dominant once ahead, but hitters are sitting on his fastball in all other counts because it is the only pitch he can throw for strikes. Unless he can start throwing the slider for strikes or develop a third league average pitch, he is going to continue to get hit hard.

Leaders in Home Runs Plus Stolen Bases

Cardinals Pitcher Call-Ups: Reyes and Weaver

The Cardinals called up Alex Reyes and he made his first major league appearance for the Cardinals bullpen last light. Reyes is a talent pitcher and here is some comparable pitchers with similar grades to his 2016 Baseball America prospect grade.

The list is dominated by hard throwers with good curve balls which describes Reyes.

Moving onto his Triple-A production this year, the 21-year-old has been a strikeout machine with 12.8 K/9, but he has some issues with walks (4.4 BB/9). Last night he averaged 99 mph with his fastball and was 98 mph in the Arizona Fall League last year. Besides the fastball, he has an above average curve ball. He is a talented pitcher and should be a top 20 pitcher for years to come if his change up is serviceable.

But to put it simply, all the talent doesn’t really matter this season. Reyes will not be useful in most leagues since he will be relegated to the bullpen and is currently not in line for Saves. In redraft leagues, let others fight over him. In keeper leagues, understand his value is limited this season. Now, if I was a non-contender in a keeper league, I would look to see if one of the contenders has Reyes and would try to pick him up for a piece which could help them win a championship.

Luke Weaver is the pitcher owners should be targeting this season instead of Reyes. To start with, here are some comparables for Weaver using MLB.com’s 2016 grades.

The list of pitchers doesn’t bring a ton of excitement to Weaver’s debut on Saturday. The key when looking at these grades is if he can get his curve or slider to be his third league-average pitch. Weaver has been extremely productive in Double-A posting a 1.40 ERA and 10.4 K/9, but a pitcher can dominate the minors with just two pitches. If viewing his start on Saturday, watch to see how his curve and slider work. If he can’t get them going, he may struggle the second or third time through the order.

As for fantasy, I think he is worth a stash in all leagues to see how he performs. I think he could be in the Cardinals’ rotation until the season end because he has only thrown 83 innings this year after throwing 124 IP last year so workload may not be an issue.

Dylan Bundy: Quick Look

I have been intrigued on how Dylan Bundy looks since moving to the Orioles rotation in mid-July. With his injuries and starting the season in the bullpen, I wanted to get an idea of what to expect from him as a starter. For the game, I picked his last start on August 7. Here are my thoughts:

• His fastball was at 92-97 mph with sink at the lower velocities. He had good command of this pitch and seemed to constantly hit is spots with it. This will help him get ahead of hitters who are looking for a pitch in the middle of the plate. His fastball seems to have a couple different movements and I would not be surprised if he has a four-seam fastball and a slower two-seamer.
• His split-change was at 85-87 mph also with plus late sink. This pitch was the best pitch he threw.
• His final pitch is a classic 12-6 curve at 77-80 mph which he used as a chase pitch for called strikes.
• As with any pitcher, when he hung the curve or change, they got crushed.
• If he throws like he did during this game next year, he is going to be a strikeout machine.

For next season, I like the possible production from him and he could be a top-20 to 40 pitcher …. if he stays healthy which is a huge if. I think he will be more valuable in shallow leagues where the replacement level is higher. In deeper leagues, he may end up a wasted pick if he goes back on the DL again for the season. Right now I would put a 140 IP, 9 K/9, and a 3.50 ERA on him for a 2017 projection.

T.J. House: Back in the majors

Going into last season, I had a huge crush on T.J. House after he put up some great numbers at the end of 2014. I bragged him up over the offseason and picked him up where ever I could. Right out of the gate of the 2015 season, House stunk it up and ended up the DL with an injury.

The biggest key I took away from my House love affair, for non-prospect who break out, any kink in their armor will probably make them unplayable. In House’s case, his velocity lost 2 mph from the previous season. There was no way he could keep up his 2014 production with a batting-practice fastball.

His return to the majors is only to the Indians bullpen and his fastball, which he should throw harder from the bullpen, only sits at 90 mph. He is unplayable in all leagues right now, but I will always remember the bond we shared that one offseason.

Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at two pitchers with very different approaches (and profiles) on the mound and a former top prospect that fell from grace only to suddenly become relevant again.

Jack Flaherty | RHP | Cardinals
ETA: 2018
Value: Steady

The Cardinals organization tends to make noise with hard-throwing pitchers like Alex Reyes, Junior Fernandez and Sandy Alcantara so Flaherty often gets overlooked. The right-hander, though, has a chance to have four average or better offerings and, perhaps, three plus offerings when all is said and done. Right now, the 34th overall pick of the 2014 draft has average velocity on his heater but his 6-4, 2015 pound frame suggests there could be more miles to come. His changeup already flashes plus and the slider is on its way. His control is respectable but I’d like to see him command the ball down in the zone more to generate a higher rate of ground-ball outs. Flaherty, 20, has a solid chance to develop into a No. 4 starter but further improvements on his pitches could push him even higher.

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Let’s talk hard-throwing pitchers today at the Prospect Stock Watch since they’re all the rage in baseball right now.

Michael Kopech | RHP | Red Sox
ETA: 2019
Value: Rising

Selected 33rd overall in the 2014 draft out of high school, Kopech’s early pro career was marked with makeup concerns, a suspension for a banned substance, and injury (a broken hand suffered in a fight with a teammate). When he’s on the mound, though, the right-hander can be downright nasty. His fastball has reportedly hit 105 mph as a starter and it sits 95-98 mph. He also throws a low-90s slider and changeup but both need work to become more consistent. Kopech, 20, has been pitching well in high-A ball. In six starts he has 42 strikeouts in 28.1 innings and has yet to allow a home run. Boston has a very healthy minor league system but is a little light on upper-level impact arms so Kopech’s continued development (and improved maturity) is important.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we review a prospect recovering his value after a spate of injuries, an almost-traded middle infielder and an underrated catcher.

Anthony Alford | OF | Blue Jays
ETA: 2017
Value: Recovering

Alford’s 2016 season has been a nightmare — but he might be finally turning things around. An ultra-athletic but raw athlete (due to his time spent splitting focus between pro ball and college football), the outfielder showed a lot of improvement in ’15 when he agreed to give up the gridiron. Alford played just one game this season before suffering a knee injury that knocked him out for almost a month. He returned only to suffer a concussion in a collision, which put him on the shelf for another couple of weeks. It took another few weeks for him to look good in the batter’s box upon his return but he then hit in 13 of 15 games between July 9-27 and was much more selective at the plate. The injuries have pushed Alford’s ETA back but he should still see time in Toronto in the latter half of 2017.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we check in on a pair of shortstops with wide-ranging potentials. With plenty of trade rumors swirling around the Tampa Bay Rays’ hurlers, we also take a look a potential (lesser known) replacement arm for the club — should they pull the trigger on a trade or two.

Amed Rosario | SS | Mets
ETA: mid-2017
Value: Rising

The Mets have graduated some impressive prospects in recent years and Rosario could challenge Michael Conforto for the best position player grad in quite some time. The young shortstop hasn’t been as widely heralded as some other New York players but he has a chance to be one of the best shortstops in the league. Just 20, he opened 2016 in high-A ball but has spent the past 20 games in double-A where he’s hitting .405 with a 1.036 OPS. He’ll likely never be a home run hitter but he has a chance to hit some balls in the gap while flashing a plus hit tool with a great idea of the strike zone (31-48 BB-K rate in 86 games). Toss in some stolen bases and solid defence and you have a potential stud at shortstop for the Mets, likely beginning in mid-to-late 2017.

Kevin Newman | SS | Pirates
ETA: mid-2017
Value: Steady

Selected 19th overall in the 2015 draft, Newman nonetheless lacks an impact tool — although he’ll likely hit for average at the big league level. He’s not a big stolen base guy — despite having solid speed — and he’ll never hit for power with his approach — and has just 22 extra base hits in 65 games this season. He’ll be a pest, though, if he gets a chance to play everyday and will likely fit well in the No. 2 hole in a lineup. He has a great eye at the plate and rarely strikes out — but he also doesn’t walk much (28-19 BB-K rate). Newman, 22, will definitely be a big leaguer and he’ll probably get a shot to play everyday for a few years, but my money is on him developing into more of a (very good) utility player for most of his career.

Chih-Wei Hu | RHP | Rays
ETA: 2017
Value: Rising

Trade (and rebuilding) rumors continue to swirl around the Rays. Those rumors have mostly centered on Tampa Bay’s pitching — not surprising given the lack of available arms — and this organization definitely has some upper-level depth to backfill any holes created by trades. Blake Snell, Brent Honeywell, and Taylor Guerrieri are all fairly well-known prospects but Hu continues to pitch in anonymity despite good numbers at double-A and solid stuff. The Taiwan native isn’t a fireballer but he throws in the low 90s and has the potential for four average or better offerings. He also has the potential to develop into an innings-eater for the Rays. If he can develop more bite on his breaking ball, Wu could go from a potential 4/5 arm to more of a mid-rotation guy. Keep an eye on him.

I’ve been developing expected stats that attempt to objectively measure the true batting skill for individual players, and I’ve done my best to describe them over the past few weeks. Today is more about application. I’ve taken all players with 100+ plate appearances and sorted them based upon their difference between wOBA and xOBA. Here are eight of the biggest xOBA under performers for the season to date:

Alrighty, let me explain this chart a little. The xAVG, xOBP, xSLG, xBABIP, and xOBA are all stats I calculate based upon the velocity and launch angle of the batted balls. The Δ columns are the differences between the measured stat and the expected stat, for example AVG – xAVG = ΔAVG. The lower the number, the more the player has under performed their expected values.

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I’m always torn when setting a draft date for a fantasy league, particularly a redraft one. Most people I play with generally want the draft to be as close to the start of the regular season as possible, which makes sense – the longer you wait, the more information becomes available, and the more certainty players have, especially when it comes to playing-time estimates.

Depending on your level of risk-seeking, the depth of the league, and your confidence in finding early-season waiver-wire sleepers, an earlier draft might be your preference. It’s certainly mine. In those cases, I’m comfortable using picks in the later rounds on sleepers who may or may not make a team, trusting that if they wind up optioned to the minor leagues (or designated for assignment, as it were), I’ll be able to plug someone in out of the free-agent bin comparable to a “floor” pick I could have otherwise used that selection on.

The longer you wait to do your draft, the less opportunity there is to take those playing-time-uncertain fliers. Either those players will be deemed to be without a job, or others will have grown wise to their hold on a job, bidding the price up.

My favorite example to illustrate the impact of draft timing this year is Trea Turner, the No. 2 prospect of the potential NL East-champion Washington Nationals.
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A couple of weeks ago, I examined some players whose playing times seemed to be undecided. Today I am going to continue looking at somw more (full list of players in a spreadsheet).

When will Prince Fielder get 1B eligibility?

For owners in leagues with 18 or less games to gain eligibility, you have nothing to worry about this season. Now, for leagues with 20 game eligibility issues, most have a 10 game in season requirement.

Looking at his Fielders 2015 1B usage, half of his 18 1B games were in April. After then, it was just over 1 per month and of those nine games, seven were interleague contests. With Mitch Moreland handling normal 1B duties again, I see it being tough for Fielder to get a ton of time at 1B without a Moreland injury. He will need to play in all interleague games and here is when those games happen for the Rangers in 2016.

Apr: 0
May: 0
Jun: 3
July 3
Aug: 4
Sep: 0

With an optimistic two extra games a month at 1B, he won’t be eligible until July if he starts all interleague games. It could be longer with the eligibility pushed into late August.

I think I would only consider him a DH for the season and if he gets 1B eligibility, bonus.

David Wright will max out playing only 130 games. Probably closer to 112 games. Read the rest of this entry »

Fantasy baseball season is upon us and interest will probably spike once Super Bowl L is over. Since I may be considered an expert in fantasy baseball, I get asked questions about this or that player. Who is a sleeper? And tons of keeper questions. With these questions, I follow three rules.

1. Take the younger player.
2. Take the more talented player.
3. Take the hitter.

Sometimes the questions are a little harder to answer and the answer can be a little fuzzy with so many possible inputs and outcomes. Quite a bit of the analysis I see and hear are people just making up values. I have found I can’t go with my gut and some semblance of an intelligent answer should be constructed.

I know I have a few more resources than the average fantasy owner and I would like to put those resources to work. I have taken various questions I have seen discussed and have come up with what I hope are some more intelligently constructed answers.

The two items I will use for most of the analysis is public opinion (from Twitter polls) and historical data. With the polls, I can use the information from the crowds to at least get a consensus of public opinion. The public could be wrong, but at least I have a reasonable anchoring point to start the discussion. With the historic data, the average and range of values can be known.

Here are some questions I have pondered this pre-season and my current answers.

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