Mixing Fantasy & Reality: 2016 Final Player Values & More

First, a few words about my offseason writing at Rotographs. Besides reporting any possible relevant fantasy news, I plan on systematically going through two groups of players and work on their 2017 values. I will start at the top of the 2017 rankings and also somewhere in the middle and work my way down each list. I may be able to do a handful of players each article or I might by limited to just the two players. Either way, I will start putting together a 2017 draft ranking.

Additionally, I will try to follow Eno’s schedule for the other writers (e.g. players on playoff teams for the next couple of weeks). If they are looking at outfielders for that specific week, I will also look at outfielders.

The other project I will work through is being able to put a better evaluation on prospects for fantasy purposes. I will use the evaluations of various prospect writers and publications and put their evaluations into something which can be used in fantasy circles. I have some ideas of what I want to accomplish, but I am sure there will be some roadblocks and detours on the way. I will start this series Friday.

2017 Fantasy Valuations

To simply value players for the 2017 season, I am going to use the 2016 15-Team Mixed LABR league as a reference. The league is full of experts trying their hardest and is a nice middle ground between 10-team shallow leagues and 20-team mixed or AL or NL-only leagues. Each league will have its own evaluations but I am just trying to come up with a point of reference and exact league details can be discussed later.

To get the evaluations, I used the Standard Gain Points method I outlined here and here. The best source for setting up this method of player evaluation is in Larry Schechter’s book, Winning Fantasy Baseball. I removed the top two and bottom two values to get a better slope (detailed in links above) and ended up with the following two formulas for my values.

Hitter SGP: Run/12.1 + HR/4.96 + RBI/16.0 + SB/4.8 + ((((1885.4+Hits)/(7099+AB))- .2654)/.0013)

Pitcher SGP: Wins/1.84+Save/3.69+K/17.9+((3.95-((Earned Runs+593.4)*(9/(1352.3+IP))))/.0568)+((1.265-((1711.7+Hits+Walks)/(IP+1352.3)))/.00964)

Looking back at the 2016 season, here is a link to the player evaluations. Again, these evaluations aren’t going to work with every league, but they give a starting point when examing players.

Bonus Projections

Whenever I have created projections in the past, I usually will give a player a ‘+’ or ‘-‘ grade for the chance of them having the potential for more production. I usually use this as a tiebreaker between similar players or a reason to overbid. This year, instead of the ‘+’ or ‘-‘, I am going to go with a second projection. Most of the time this will be on the positive side.

Once example of this might be the projection of Jarrod Dyson. Over the past four seasons, he has never had over 350 PA in a season (only over 300 once and that was in ’16), but he has averaged over 30 SB per season over those four seasons. If he was given a full season of plate appearances, the stolen bases may jump into the 45 to 60 range. I could see Dyson’s value jump, but if I am looking at Alex Gordon, I  see a small upside and not to the level of Jarrod Dyson. I don’t see giving Gordon a bonus value.

In most of these scenario’s, the change for hitters will likely be more playing time, stolen bases, or home runs. With pitchers, the boost will likely be a change in role, bullpen to starter or more innings pitched.

I don’t plan on giving every player a bonus projection as I want to create a decent initial projection, but it is nice to target a possible breakout player like Jonathan Villar. If an ower is going to overpay, at least overpay for a player who has a chance of reaching the overpay.