Most people in fantasy baseball have tiers of players. You likely believe that certain players are roughly interchangeable, and others are definitely superior or inferior to one another. Sometimes the differences between players appears so vast that it is obvious where you would draw the distinction, and other times it feels more fluid and dynamic. Intuitively you might feel there is a strong distinction between the two tiers, but it may be difficult to find a precise line in the sand.

In the past few days I have been going through my xStats, looking at where certain players fell on certain metrics. In doing so, I have noticed several pairs of players. Players who have performed very similarly on several different metrics. Some of these pairs, arguably, cross skill tiers. And boy do I love when players cross tiers. Read the rest of this entry »

Recently I created a new dynasty baseball league customized around the basic game of Ottoneu.  The more you play Ottoneu the more you come to appreciate how deep the player pool really is, and the longer I play fantasy baseball the more interested I become in the minor league development process.  While there is still plenty of luck involved, the satisfaction of “discovering” the next Rhys Hoskins before everyone else is a feeling that keeps me coming back to the game over and over.

In addition to the standard economics of Ottoneu where each league consists of twelve owners and 480 rostered players (minors and majors), our league will roster an additional 180 minor leaguers (15 extra per team) in an attempt to “develop” successful franchises for years to come.  Since the regular MLB season is wrapping up soon and many fantasy owners are starting to look towards 2018, I thought it might be helpful to review our prospect draft over the next several posts to give you some insight into the valuation of these minor league lottery tickets.  If nothing else, this draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.  

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Quickly identifying legitimate breakout hitters is tough. Is the hot streak just that, a streak or is something more? With pitchers, it is easier to find the breakout’s cause. New pitch. Added velocity. Improved control. These traits can be seen in a single start after facing 25+ batters. A hitter has only about five plate appearances a game to display a new skill. It’s a different world with them. Today, I am going to try to find a simple process with a few key stats to focus on.

With hitters, their data contains so much noise, especially once the ball is put into play. To get rid of some of this noise, I started to find with the following stats:

• Power: Hard%, HR/FB
• Plate Discipline: BB%, K%, O-Swing%, Contact%
• Batted Ball Distribution: Pull%, Flyball%

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Within the past 24 hours, two substantial trades have occurred. The Yankees sent Tyler Clippard, Ian Clarkin, Blake Rutherford and Tito Polo to the White Sox for Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle. Additionally, the Diamondbacks sent Dawel Lugo, Jose King, and Sergio Alcantara to the Tigers J.D. Martinez. Here are the players who will likely see their fantasy value change because of the move from the most value gained to least gained.

Yoan Moncada: The game’s number one prospect gets called up to replace Frazier. The 22-year-old switch hitter has the chance to post both double digit home runs and stolen bases over the rest of the season. I could see him post 20 stolen bases as the White Sox may let him run wild with nothing to play for.

Now, Moncada does come with some batting average and on base concerns. Steamer has him projected at a .230 AVG and a .310 OBP. These values, especially the batting average, could be a drag on a team. His owners may want to consider moving him as his value may never be higher and he could bring back a more rounded player.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at a third baseman that could help Boston during their race for a playoff spot, an emerging pitching stud for the Astros and an underrated arm for the Reds.

Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox: The Boston Red Sox appear to be on a collision course with the 2017 playoffs but the team’s biggest gap is likely at third base — especially after Pablo Sandoval was recently cut (not to mention the ill-fated Travis Shaw trade). Devers, a 20-year-old prospect, could be the answer for the Sox. He’s advanced for his age and was recently promoted to triple-A from double-A where he was hitting .300 with a .944 OPS. He’s not easily overwhelmed and seems to handle pressure well; his triple-A debut saw him go 4-for-4 with a homer. He has 19 home runs on the season but makes a solid amount of contact with just 55 strikeouts in 78 games (17.2% K-rate). Devers has the raw power to be a 30-homer guy in his prime. He’ll have to keep an eye on his conditioning to remain at the hot corner but he has a strong arm and should stick at the position for a while. He could eventually challenge Mookie Betts for the most talented home-grown player on the Red Sox.

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For my next few articles, I am going to examine batters and pitchers who have changed their approach from the second half of 2016 to the first half of this season. Today, I will start with the hitters.

For hitters, I found how far their stats changed, in standard deviations, from the league average in these five categories:

• Strikeouts (K%)
• Walks (BB%)
• Groundball Rate (GB%)
• Pull Percentage (Pull%)
• Isolated Power (ISO)

Then I binned the change as good or bad. I determined “pulling the ball” (can be shifted) and groundballs (fewer line drives and home runs) to be bad. If a person disagrees, they can change the values found in this spreadsheet and create their rankings.

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I’m not sure of the exact Sleeper and the Bust podcast but Paul and Eno were discussing Jeff Samardzija and how his ERA would look better without a Colorado start. Right now Samardzija’s ERA is 4.31 but if the seven run, five inning start in Colorado is removed his ERA drops to 3.81. I’m not a fan of removing starts from a pitcher’s stats. The good and bad will happen. The deal is that Samardzija owners probably sat him that week like I did in Tout Wars. If owners aren’t going to use pitchers in their Colorado starts maybe owners should start ignoring the stats generated there.

The increase scoring environment in Colorado is about impossible to overcome. In an article at Rotowire ($) last year, I stated the following:

What we do know is that the road pitcher should expect between a 1.00 and 2.00 increase in ERA. I might put the ERA drop near 1.50, but I could understand if an owner wants to use a smaller or larger number. Additionally, I will put the K/9 drop near 0.9 and the WHIP increase at .25.

Those increases are just too much to absorb over an entire season. Sure an owner can get away with a start every now and then but eventually, the odds will even out. Once the hammer drops, an owner will spend a couple weeks trying to recover their overall rate stats.

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Here are a few starters who have seen their velocity drop during the 2017 season and my thoughts on each (full list).

Gio Gonzalez (-0.9 mph on 4-seam, -1.9 mph on 2-seam)

Of the pitchers I am examining today, Gonzalez is the toughest to get a read on. Besides a reasonable strikeout rate (8.3 K/9), his sub-3 ERA is the only trait he has going for him. His walk rate (4.3 BB/9) is his highest since 2009. He doesn’t have a good groundball rate and his home runs are up (with the rest of the league).

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Late last season and into the start of this season, I couldn’t stop singing the praises of Robert Gsellman. Gsellman had the pitcher trifecta going on with above average strikeout and groundball rates and a below average walk rate. While I encouraged owners to acquire him, I didn’t completely buy into the transformation. But I still hoped for the best. My reservations and hopes can be linked back to T.J. House and Jacob deGrom and the waning months of 2014 season.

Near the end 2014, House put together a respectable season with a 7.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 61% GB%. They combined to support a 3.35 ERA and I was all in going into 2015. He seemed to be the perfect sleeper candidate with results similar to Dallas Keuchel.

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It’s time to understand how ownership trends are playing out this year. I will start by breaking down one of the most common fantasy sites, ESPN. I will go over the batter ownership rates for different league sizes so owners know which players are applicable to them. Additionally, I will find the current replacement level player for each position.

With fantasy experts using ownership rates to help find potential waiver targets, it is important to know each league’s ownership level. Historically, I know I should only worry about players owned in 10% of leagues or less but not everyone plays in 15-team or deeper leagues.

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