Fantasy Implications for Recent Trades (DET-AZ & NYY-CWS)
Within the past 24 hours, two substantial trades have occurred. The Yankees sent Tyler Clippard, Ian Clarkin, Blake Rutherford and Tito Polo to the White Sox for Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle. Additionally, the Diamondbacks sent Dawel Lugo, Jose King, and Sergio Alcantara to the Tigers J.D. Martinez. Here are the players who will likely see their fantasy value change because of the move from the most value gained to least gained.
Yoan Moncada: The game’s number one prospect gets called up to replace Frazier. The 22-year-old switch hitter has the chance to post both double digit home runs and stolen bases over the rest of the season. I could see him post 20 stolen bases as the White Sox may let him run wild with nothing to play for.
Now, Moncada does come with some batting average and on base concerns. Steamer has him projected at a .230 AVG and a .310 OBP. These values, especially the batting average, could be a drag on a team. His owners may want to consider moving him as his value may never be higher and he could bring back a more rounded player.
Tyler Clippard or Anthony Swarzak: One of these two will be the White Sox’s closer and be in line for Saves. Neither is lights out so either could struggle with the job. Also, one or both could get traded in the next week as the White Sox trade current assets for future value.
I have a notion the White Sox will go with a bullpen by committee until the end of the trade deadline. Then they will settle on a single closer.
Alex Presley: For now it seems like Presley will be the Tigers right fielder. While this addition will drag down the rest of the lineup, he will see regular playing time and accumulate the counting stats that go with the promotion.
Diamondbacks lineup: Martinez is a huge lineup improvement.
Todd Frazier: The trade improves Frazier’s value but not a ton. The main gain will additional Runs and RBI as the Yankees are averaging 5.4 R/G while the White Sox are about one run less at 4.5 R/G. These extra runs produced could be offset by a smaller HR park factor in Yankees Stadium.
Additionally, it is not clear where Frazier will hit in the Yankees lineup. Frazier has only one usable trait, power. Frazier may end up being slotted low in the lineup behind anyone with on base skills with the hope he can drive them in.
J.D. Martinez: This move is a near neutral move for Martinez. He’s still going to play all the time. Both teams score about the same amount of runs (4.81 to 4.95 R/G). The home run home park factor increases some from 99 to 101. Now, Chase Field does play allow more doubles and triples but speed is not part of Martinez’s game. Nothing really moves his value.
The non-closer between Tyler Clippard and Anthony Swarzak: There is a chance that the loser of this “battle” could eventually get Save chances if the other pitcher struggles, gets hurt, or is traded.
Dellin Betances: It seems like Robertson will be Chapman’s setup man so Betances is even further away from getting Saves.
Tito Polo: There’s a small chance for him getting called up. If he does, he could a decent source of steals with 27 so far this season in the minors.
Garrett Cooper: Most people knew Cooper’s time at first was to be limited. He did make it a whole four games before being replaced.
Gregor Blanco, Daniel Descalso, and Chris Herrmann: One of these three have patrolling left field for the Diamondbacks since early June. Now they are all regulated to the bench or Triple-A with Martinez now in the outfield.
Tigers lineup: Martinez will be missed as Presley replaces him.
Gregory Bird: Bird isn’t back until mid-September at the earliest (ankle surgery). Now the chances of him playing this season is zero with Frazier at first.
Tommy Kahnle: While Kahnle didn’t have much fantasy value before the trade, it’s less now. He now needs three of the games top relievers to implode or get injured to close. Just a few days ago, he looked to be Robertson’s replacement.
David Robertson: Moving from full-time closer duties for the White Sox to the setup man for the Yankees just killed his fantasy value in most leagues. He will need a Chapman injury to possibly get Saves in the future and have the Yankees pick him over Betances.
Prospects non-factors for 2017: Ian Clarkin, Blake Rutherford, Dawel Lugo, Jose King, and Sergio Alcantara.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Poor Kahnle. Top 5 reliever in most metrics (outside of saves and holds), and 4th in line to close.
He is still a nice piece if you are trying to protect ratios or build Ks against an innings cap, but even in a league that counts holds, he doesn’t seem to be in line for many high leverage situations. Best case scenario might be if the Yankees turn him into an Andrew Miller type and cycle through the other three in the 8th and 9th.
Do we think JDM effects Peralta’s playing time, or they will just continue to platoon him?
I can see Peralta playing most days until Tomas gets back, then a platoon of Peralta/Tomas being very effective. Peralta has shown to be competent in the box against lefties this year, granted SSS.
Probably no effect, since Peralta will continue to be platooned.
Martinez could start in RF against lefties, which would leave Owings (who plays in RF against lefties) at SS and Marte on the bench but they would still have the LF problem. So Martinez will likely stay in LF.
How valuable is Clippard or Swarzak really going to be? The White Sox were already last in team SVO before the trade, and I’d assume that the bullpen downgrade will mean that they’ll lose leads more frequently in the 6th/7th before it ever gets to Clippard or Swarzak. I know you take saves where you can get ’em, but in a SVH league for example, I think there’s probably 15 or so 8th inning guys I’d rather have than the ChiSox closer.
I don’t think park factors have been updated here since 2015 – the juiced ball likes it in AZ. From a handful of different sources, RHH HR Park Factors are 118 (and rising) for ARI and 100 for DET.
I think you’re downplaying the park change for JDM too much. How about the ’17 park factors? http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor
I’d use the park factors at StatCorner (they’re 3-year rolling averages and they’re broken down by handedness) but yeah, I’d agree: he’s going from a slightly-hitter-friendly park for RH to a very hitter-friendly park in a division that also has Coors.
Anaheim is #6 by park factors? How weird is that? And Dodger Stadium is #8? Must be an unusually warm spring and early summer in southern California.
Very interesting – Dbacks shuffled the lineup tonight with the new addition: Peralta, POllock, Lamb, Goldschmidt and Martinez. It’s the 1st time all year that any of the existing DBacks have hit in those positions since it has always been Pollock, Peralta, Goldy, Lamb. Probably no real impact but clearly there was something there that Lovullo wanted to take advantage of.
BTW, not that it matters for fantasy purposes but the biggest loser is probably Rey Fuentes. Dbacks put him on the DL today with a thumb contusion but I suspect that is just a move to buy him some time before they release him. He has no place on the team now.
The other big loser is Tomas. I can’t see any regular PA for him going forward. He’ll get some run against lefties but the Dbacks are also going to need to find time for Gregor Blanco since they are clearly trying to favor defense more this year. You kind of have to wonder if a DFA is in Tomas’ near future
I would think another big winner is Nick Castellanos since his lineup position should improve quite a bit. With the way he’s hitting, he should never get stuck in the 7 hole again this year.
Regarding park factors, is there a reason Fangraph’s park factors differ so significantly from, e.g., ESPN? For 2015, for example, Fangraphs has Arizona as the 12th most favorable HR park (see http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&season=2015&teamid=0&sort=6,d), whereas ESPN has Arizona as the 24th most favorable HR park (see http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2015/sort/HRFactor).
Because the FanGraphs park factors aren’t calculated anymore and haven’t been for some time. If you change the year to 2014, you’ll get the same results as 2015.
There is too much noise year to year on park factors