Not A Pitching Prospect, Now A Pitching Prospect

Late last season and into the start of this season, I couldn’t stop singing the praises of Robert Gsellman. Gsellman had the pitcher trifecta going on with above average strikeout and groundball rates and a below average walk rate. While I encouraged owners to acquire him, I didn’t completely buy into the transformation. But I still hoped for the best. My reservations and hopes can be linked back to T.J. House and Jacob deGrom and the waning months of 2014 season.

Near the end 2014, House put together a respectable season with a 7.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 61% GB%. They combined to support a 3.35 ERA and I was all in going into 2015. He seemed to be the perfect sleeper candidate with results similar to Dallas Keuchel.

Then House fell on his face with a 13.15 ERA and a 0.58 K/BB ratio. House’s decline can be linked to his velocity decline (~2 mph) and an early season shoulder injury. Since then, House has been fantasy irrelevant. This season, he’s throwing OK (3.77 ERA, 1.6 K/BB) for Toronto’s Triple-A team but is a complete fantasy afterthought.

At the same time that House was breaking out, Jacob deGrom was making himself known to the public.

While deGrom had a faster fastball (96 mph), questions surrounded deGrom. His 3 mph fastball velocity jump came out of nowhere as he was sitting at 92-94 mph the previous season (from Baseball America Handbook). Additionally, deGrom began throwing the Warthen slider. But as Eno Sarris said in our 2015 preview of deGrom:

He can’t just replicate last season’s work.

Eno was wrong.

Now, I’ll get back to Gsellman. He’s struggling this season with a 4.95 ERA, his K/9 is down from 8.5 to 6.8. His production falls between House’s and deGrom’s but it is still disappointing. Because of House, I had reservations, but because of deGrom, I still have a glimmer of hope.

I’ve become two-sided of these popup pitchers. There must have been a reason they weren’t a prospect before breaking out. They had several obvious warts keeping their value down and a small improvement, usually added velocity or a new pitch, has upped their stock to be MLB caliber pitchers. Any degradation will quickly drop their value into the non-prospect bin.

But some don’t become fads. They keep that insane pitch (e.g. Kluber’s “curve”) and build on it. These popup studs are the cornerstones of championship fantasy teams but correctly picking them is a messy business.

So far this season, Joe Biagini, Zack Godley, and Dinelson Lamet fall into the “Not a Pitching Prospect, Now a Pitching Prospect” bin (NAPP, NAPP). They’ve shown some signs of breakouts but are closer to adding NAPPA (Not a Pitching Prospect, Again) to their resume. One may stick in the majors and be productive for years but who?

With these unknowns, here are my simple guidelines for rostering these pitchers.

#1 Don’t rely on any of them to be a major contributor. Have a safe backup option. I find there are dozen or so of these “NAPP, NAPP” pitchers and usually one or two rise above the others in preseason sleeper lists. These pitchers get a little over-valued and still have a high chance to regress downward. If taking a chance on one or more, pick them up at the end of the draft or in the dollar days. In auctions, I like picking up four to five of these guys in dollar days or in the reserve round to increase my odds of one sticking.

#2 If the pitcher shows signs of his skills degrading, be prepared to quickly move on. Kyle Hendricks is sadly such a pitcher. In 2016, he was an afterthought in many drafts but an elite Cubs defense made him a one-year star. He’s lost a couple ticks off his fastballs this season and he’s back near 4.00 ERA even with the Cubs defense performing well. If Step #1 is followed, few resources were spent on the pitcher and an owner can move on without much regret.

#3 Enjoy the guys whose new-found talent sticks. While little if nothing was paid for these guys, the rewards are huge. The key with keeping these pitchers is to make sure any bad results are just some bad luck and not a change in talent.

Following these three simple steps is a great way to navigate these pitchers who had little if any prospect pedigree. They weren’t hyped because they weren’t good. A small change can boost their value but with age, injuries, and regression working against them their value may drop just as quickly. Be prepared to move on just as quickly.