One day this flu will fully go away. One day. At least I’m no longer sleeping 20 of 24 hours every day and can actually do things, but my goodness this cough is something else. Anyway, let’s finish off our Gold Digging team by heading to the mound with five notable starting pitchers I’m drafting and monitoring this spring in hopes of seeing the signs that they are ready for a breakthrough. If you missed either part on hitters, you can check those out here:
Herz impressed in a 19-start debut, highlighted by a fantastic 28% K rate in 89 innings. He had some classic rookie issues with a 9% BB rate and 1.1 HR9, but the walk rate was actually the best we’ve seen from Herz at any stop in his career (15% BB in 321 MiLB IP). He has a legit 3-pitch mix, all of which can miss bats, and the young lefty was so adept at handling righties that he actually posted a better OPS against them (.651, 43 pts clear of his work vL). He will need to iron out some of his volatility to have a major breakout, but I’ll take the shot at this price point.
One Ottoneu manager’s cuts are another Ottoneu manager’s auction bids. But take heed pretend baseball general manager! These pitchers were cut for a reason. Maybe their signature pitch no longer fell out of the zone at the last split second like it used to. Maybe injury has the general public concerned. But, maybe those criticisms will be your opportunities. This article provides some context about the pitchers who were dropped the most at the keeper deadline, using “% of leagues with a cut in the last 7 days” as the starting point. Read the rest of this entry »
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP
You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.
Ranking starting pitching is an absolutely massive beast to tackle (seriously, I have no idea how Nick Pollack does it). And it feels like our understanding of what makes a good pitcher is constantly evolving as we continue to break new ground with all the publicly available data. That also means there are more breakouts to chase than ever before as so many pitchers are one or two tweaks away from really unlocking their pitch arsenal. That makes ranking pitchers particularly tricky because projection systems often have a very hard time picking up on those arsenal or stuff changes without a ton of data to back them up.
If you want to pay up for established, high-end options, there are plenty to choose from, just remember that pitchers break down more often than any other position. That means investing a large portion of your budget into your pitching staff will always carry some amount of risk. Luckily, if you choose to pass on the best pitchers on the market, there’s a large middle tier that you can build a perfectly productive pitching staff with. There’s probably 40-50 guys in this group that have good projections but won’t break the bank to roster. Once you’re past those top 60-70 pitchers, you’re getting into the lower tiers where all sorts of warts and question marks abound. Here, you’re simply searching for potential breakouts, bounce backs, or bulk innings.
Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss a few outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.
The biggest difference in my rankings is where I put Wheeler. He’s undoubtedly been the most valuable pitcher in Ottoneu over the last four years purely on the massive amount of points he’s generated, even if his per inning rate hasn’t been the highest. That longevity is incredibly valuable, though he’s getting up there in age presenting some risk to his profile. In addition, the projections for him in 2025 just aren’t that rosy, which was enough for me to drop him a tier.
I’ve got lower evaluations on Yamamoto, Valdez, Gibert, Burnes, and Kirby. Yamamoto still has workload concerns after he wasn’t able make through his first season in the States unscathed. Valdez doesn’t have a high enough ceiling for me to put him in a higher tier. I personally love Gilbert and Kirby, but the former has had issues maintaining his strikeout rate and the latter gives up a few too many home runs, which hampers him in this format. Burnes righted the ship after scuffling for a lot of the season last year, but I’m concerned that it wasn’t just a blimp but a portent for his eventual decline.
I’m higher on Gray and Steele because I believe in the former’s strikeout rate improvements and the latter has provided consistent home run suppression for three seasons now.
Chad thought he’d be the low man on Sasaki but here I am putting him a tier lower. I get the hype, but there are enough concerns about his fastball shape, his injury history, and the transition from Japan to the US that I’m pumping the brakes just a little bit. I’m also lower on Gallen, Lopez, and Imanaga and that’s mostly due to some lower projections capping their ceilings a bit.
I like Greene, Woo, Miller, Houck, and Sanchez a good deal more than Chad and in all of their cases, I’m a believer in the breakouts they all enjoyed in 2024 and think they’ve got even more room to grow.
We’re getting to the end of the middle tier with these two tiers and the end of the truly useful pitchers you can count on for consistent production.
I’m lower on Nola (read why), Williams, and Rodon but there are a ton of guys here that I’m higher on and it’s either because I believe in a skill change they showed last year or their projections paint a promising picture for 2025 or that they’ve put an injury behind them and I’m banking on a return to form.
For these lower tier guys, it’s nearly impossible to find any agreement between me and Chad and that can mostly be chalked up to differences in risk management and our preferences in how we fill out the back end of our rosters. Every one of these guys has a wart or two (or three or four), and you can nitpick about which wart is more important than another, but if you’re relying on any of these guys for significant innings in 2025, something has either gone very well for the individual pitcher or very poorly for the rest of your fantasy team.
This was exhausting. We have so much data we can analyze on pitchers and so many people are so good at doing that. And I find myself ranking pitchers and wondering what, exactly, I bring to the table. The biggest thing, to be honest, is my Ottoneu knowledge. There are a number of people out there who are great pitching analysts. There are great lists for re-draft. And for dynasty. But the combination of Ottoneu’s scoring systems, the keeper-but-not-dynasty nature, and the Ottoneu economics make this a bit of a unique list.
Part one of my starting pitcher keep/cut articles had me diving deep on pitchers who have shown major league success but hadn’t yet instilled themselves in any major league rotation with consistency yet. That’s what we’re really after. But it takes time for pitchers to get there and you have to decide first, how long you’re willing to wait, and second, at what price. Read the rest of this entry »
Lucas kicked off our final position group as we look at our difficult keep or cut decisions ahead of the keeper deadline. Here are four starting pitchers on my keep/cut bubble.
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Aaron Nola, SP
Salary: $34
Average Salary: $33
2024 P/G: 4.26
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.39
2024 was the second consecutive season in which Aaron Nola’s FIP approached four. It’s not hard to see why; after a three-year stretch with a strikeout rate of 30% and a HR/FB rate of 12.5% from 2020-22, Nola has seen both of those metrics deteriorate pretty significantly. His 24% strikeout rate last year was the lowest that metrics has been since his rookie season back in 2015, and while he’s always struggled a bit with a home run problem, that issue has been exacerbated over the last two years.
The good news is that his trademark curveball is still a fantastically effective weapon and his four-seamer plays incredibly well off that breaking ball. The bad news is that his changeup and cutter both lost a ton of effectiveness in 2024, giving him fewer options to attack batters with. Until those other secondary offering regain their bite, I’m not sure he has the same kind of ceiling that we saw in 2022 when he posted a 2.58 FIP.
What Nola does have going for him is a steady track record of solid production while also making more than 30 starts in six straight seasons (ignoring the pandemic shortened season). That kind of bulk production certainly has value but if you’re expecting a front-line starter and paying those kinds of prices to roster him, I’m afraid you’re going to be sorely disappointed. It’s also worth mentioning that Nola is a far better pitcher in 5×5 or 4×4 formats since his high home run rates really hurt him in Ottoneu points leagues.
Keep or cut?
I’m cutting at $34 and I’d expect to see a ton of shares of Nola cut across the Ottoneu universe as players realize he’s just not the ace that his $33 average salary assumes he is anymore. I’m expecting a bit of a rebound — and the projections agree to a certain extent — but I wouldn’t pay more than $15 to keep him on my roster at this point.
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George Kirby, SP
Salary: $34, $19, $18
Average Salary: $19
2024 P/G: 4.92
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.72
I’m really conflicted about what to do with George Kirby. He’s one of my favorite pitchers to watch because he’s an absolute surgeon with his deep repertoire of outstanding pitches. Unfortunately, that precise command seems to be the cause of a lot of the issues that he’s had trouble overcoming during his first three seasons in the big leagues. Because he locates his pitches in the zone so frequently, batters can more easily identify out-of-the-zone pitches when he’s seeking a whiff. Despite running an elite 29.1% whiff rate on his four-seamer, batters have learned to sit on that pitch and regularly punish it after spitting on his secondary offerings.
This tension between maintaining an otherworldly strikeout-to-walk ratio and limiting the hard contact he allows doesn’t have an easy answer either. He’s going to have to figure out how to maximize his secondary offerings while working on a less predictable approach to give batters some pause when they’re facing him. That might mean a few more walks over the course of the season, but if the result is more strikeouts and fewer balls in play, Kirby will likely continue to thrive. If he doesn’t make the necessary adjustments, then the depressed projection might be more accurate than we’d like.
Keep or cut?
I’m cutting at $34 (or desperately trying to find a trade partner who really believes in Kirby), but keeping at $18 and $19. That’s pretty close to his current ceiling, but those adjustments could obviously break things wide open and that’s what you’re hoping for if you’re keeping him in the mid-$20s.
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Taj Bradley, SP
Salary: $10
Average Salary: $8
2024 P/G: 4.29
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.42
Taj Bradley started off last year brilliantly; through his first 14 starts, he had posted a 2.43 ERA and a 3.41 FIP behind a fantastic 30% strikeout rate. He fell apart in August and September and ended the season with an ERA and FIP both above four. It was just his second taste of the big leagues and many of his underlying metrics look promising, but there are still big questions about his ability to leverage those skills into a complete package.
All three of his secondary offerings returned a whiff rate over 30% last year. There are just a handful of pitchers who can say the same thing and all of them who can are among the best pitchers in baseball. Bradley’s downfall is his fastball. It’s got good physical characteristics — his 129 Stuff+ on his heater is outstanding — but batters don’t seem phased by it. Its whiff rate is decent, but when the pitch gets put in play, it gets absolutely pounded to the tune of a .391 xwOBA and a .500 slugging percentage against. Since he doesn’t have precise command of his repertoire, too many of his fastballs get left over the heart of the plate where they’re absolutely crushed.
The nasty secondary offerings give me hope that he’ll figure things out but I can’t ignore the very real contact issues he’s faced that have led to far too many home runs. His start to last year gives us a pretty good glimpse of what could be if things go right, but his second half is the red flag that warns us not to pay for that ceiling yet.
Keep or cut?
I honestly could go either way on keeping at $10 and so the decision likely comes down to team context and how my budget is shaping up. That double digit salary is the absolute highest I’d want to roster him for at this point.
Across his final nine starts of the season, Bowden Francis was nearly unhittable, producing a 1.53 ERA while striking out 56 in 59 innings. Those sterling results hid a lackluster 3.42 FIP and 3.75 xFIP during that stretch. Everyone is pointing to the splitter he added to his repertoire last year as the meaningful difference maker but I’d like to point out that he also increased the usage of his slider in August and September and that pitch returned a whiff rate over 50% during those two hot months.
Of course, the projection systems aren’t buying into that two-month stretch yet. They see a pretty steep drop off from what he accomplished in 2024, backed up by his advanced age and long minor league track record. An age-28 breakout isn’t unheard of but it’s pretty rare and it’s unlikely an indicator of a major talent change.
Keep or cut?
At $5, I’m interested in seeing if he really has made a tweak to his slider to unlock that pitch as a true swing-and-miss weapon. At $7, he has too many warts and question marks to keep.
Do they have offerings for left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters? Do they throw their best pitches for strikes? What’s the Stuff+ measurements on those “best” pitches? Do they throw with high velocity? Do they have a good fastball? Do they elevate that fastball? How long are their arms, how long are their legs, how big are their fingers? Are their mechanics efficient? Repeatable? Normal? When did they last feel a tinge in their forearms? Have they ever been demoted to AAA? These are all good questions to ask when analyzing pitchers. Read the rest of this entry »
Note: I started writing these and then stopped away from a while. The ADP changed quite a bit so the last three aren’t in perfect order with some arms now between them.
