As we approach the All-Star break, we’re due for another big update on the SP rankings. Sorry for not getting one out in June, but you can see my Daily SP Charts for regular commentary on pitchers so at least it’s not completely dark in between these updates. The $ is the earned auction value so far this year. Those with – in their Change column means they weren’t ranked last month due to injury or simply not being in the MLB rotation.

I’ll be in the comments answering any questions, so let me know! Plus, I’ll have my chat on Wednesday where we can discuss in more detail.

Don’t forget that these are primarily focused on the next 3-4 weeks. They can give you some guidance on “rest of season” trades, but I’m not taking IP risk into heavy consideration with these rankings because most of those guys facing a limit won’t be altered much in July. Moves due to volume concerns will start more in the post-Trade Deadline update.

(Note: there won’t be a Tuesday SP Chart, but these rankings should definitely help your decisions for the day!)

Alright, enough yapping… here they are:

Update(s):

• July 1st, 10:00 pm CT — I memory-holed the big injuries from last wk apparently, so I had to remove several guys who got hurt (Lodolo, Woo, Turnbull, Assad, Mize; plus Megill getting sent to AAA) and from there I ended up doing a decently large sweep so there was a good bit of movement from the original post. No one shifted multiple tiers or anything, but some real moves for sure.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Orioles have a pretty nice West Coast road trip next week against the punchless Mariners and A’s. Dean Kremer is on the verge of returning from the IL, so pay attention to his status and the member of the rotation he bumps out.
• The Angels also have a pair of easier matchups against the A’s and Cubs, but their starting rotation is such a mess, I can’t really recommend starting anyone from their staff except for Tyler Anderson. Davis Daniel did have a brilliant debut yesterday, so if you want to take a flier on the unheralded prospect, he’s got a pretty cushy matchup for his second start of his career.
• The Brewers have the unenviable task of traveling to Colorado for four games and then heading to Los Angeles to face the high-powered Dodgers offense. Freddy Peralta avoids a start in Coors so he might be the only viable starter from their rotation, but you could risk a start from Tobias Myers against the Rockies if you’re feeling really lucky.
• Along with their tough series against the Brewers, the Dodgers will also host the Diamondbacks who are hitting particularly well right now. You’ll probably want to wait to see if Bobby Miller can put together a strong start before inserting him back into your lineups — his start against the White Sox this week was pretty ugly.

We’re a little less than half way through the regular season and the search for useful pitching is never ending. Here are a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

Jameson Taillon started off the season strong, got hurt, returned and struggled for a few weeks, and has finally come back around to find some success over his last three starts. Against the Rays, Cardinals, and red-hot Mets, he’s allowed just three runs in 19 innings with a phenomenal 6.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Unlike Myers above, Taillon has earned his success despite seeing rather normal looking batted ball peripherals. He’s probably worth an add during this hot streak if he’s available in your league.

Miles Mikolas has always enjoyed some on-again, off-again success as an innings-eater for the Cardinals. Last year was a down season for him but he’s regained some of the strikeouts that he had lost; his K% is now back up closer to where it was in 2022 when it reached a career high 19%. There really isn’t all that much that’s different in his profile — being so dependent on the command of his entire repertoire, he can go through tough stretches when he isn’t locating very well. Right now, he’s got a good feel for his pitch mix and has spun three excellent starts in a row. None of the teams he’s faced during this stretch have been all that impressive — at home against the Pirates and Giants and away at the Cubs — but it’s probably worth riding the hot streak if you’re desperate for pitching.

Tobias Myers has been thrust into a much larger role than expected thanks to all the injuries the Brewers have suffered in their pitching staff. He struggled after making his debut in late April but he’s settled into the big leagues and has been particularly impressive in June. Across four starts this month, he’s allowed just two runs while compiling a pretty good 3.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s definitely benefitting from some good batted ball luck — his BABIP allowed this month is a measly .182 — but he’s also cut his barrel rate allowed in half. Looking under the hood, he’s increased the usage of his mediocre fastball in June, though he’s run a .307 expected wOBA with his heater during this hot streak. More impressively, he’s running whiff rates higher than 30% on both his slider and changeup which gives him two pretty decent weapons to attack batters with once he’s established the fastball.

It’s tough to stand out in the Guardians elite relief corps but Sam Hentges has quietly put up some solid numbers over the last few years as a less heralded member of Cleveland’s bullpen. He’s back to his usual dominance this year, with career-best strikeout and walk rates so far. There are four pitchers ahead of him in the bullpen pecking order, but as a left-handed pitcher, he gets opportunities to pick up holds against teams with particularly difficult left-handed batters. Over the last two weeks, he’s earned three holds across six appearances.

With the Mets bullpen a mess, Dedniel Núñez has earned a number of high-leverage opportunities since being recalled from the minors at the tail end of April. Ranked 33rd on their pre-season prospect list, Núñez has nasty stuff but a lack of command has really held him back from truly standing out as a relief prospect. He’s managed to gain a much better feel for his pitch mix this year — he’s allowed just three walks all season long — and that’s helped his raw stuff play to its strengths. With his recent background as a starter, New York has been using him in a multi-inning role, which has allowed him to accumulate a ton of Ottoneu points pretty quickly.

As long as he has good feel for his slider, Colin Poche will be a useful high-leverage option in the Rays bullpen. He’s been super effective since being activated off the IL a few weeks ago after missing a month with a back injury; over his last eight outings, he hasn’t allowed a run and has only allowed five baserunners. He’s probably sitting either second or third in line behind the closer Pete Fairbanks but is still seeing plenty of high-leverage work.

Zack Kelly earned a shot in the big leagues after going undrafted and getting released multiple times thanks to a pretty big increase in fastball velocity in 2022. He didn’t really stand out in limited work that year and the following season, but he’s in the midst of a breakout season so far this year. The biggest difference, beyond maintaining his improved velocity, is the introduction of a sweeper and cutter to his pitch mix. The breaking ball, in particular, has been something he had struggled to develop over the years, and now that he’s finally comfortable with one, he’s flourished. He’s earned a bit of high-leverage work recently alongside a couple of gigs opening for a bulk reliever. He’s struck out 16 this month against just three walks, a significant improvement over the 10 free passes he handed out over the first two months of the season.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• Atlanta has a couple of easier matchups next week but they also have a makeup game scheduled for Thursday in Chicago. That means they’ll travel to St. Louis for the first half of the week, make their one-day stop on the Southside, and then head home to face the Pirates. It looks like Charlie Morton and Drew Thorpe are the two pitchers scheduled to start in that game.
• Philadelphia also has a pair of easier matchups next week against the Tigers and Marlins, and the only reason why that Miami series isn’t colored blue above is because they’re playing in Philadelphia and the comfy confines of Citizens Bank Park.
• The Blue Jays have a pretty tough slate of games against the Red Sox in Fenway and then the Yankees at home. It also looks wise to fade starters from the Rangers too; they’re on the road against the Brewers and Orioles.

Welcome to another installment of fastball velocity risers and fallers. For reference, here are a few articles that explain both the process and the importance of increased or decreased velocity when predicting future success:

• Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
• MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
• Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews

The data for this article reflects games played through June 19th and only displays Statcast’s four-seam fastball (FF) velocity. 

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We’re getting close to 50% completion of the 2024 season, so I thought the time was right for a midseason update to my projections-based prospect ranks. You can find more methodological detail, along with the preseason lists here (bats) and here (arms).

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Pitchers change far more frequently than hitters. Their velocity fluctuates from start to start and throughout the season, their pitch mix is often adjusted, and sometimes there are games where the command just ain’t there. So it pays to review a pitcher’s recent skills, as the full season line might not tell the whole story of who that pitcher is right now. With that in mind, let’s find out which pitchers have gained and lost the most SwStk% points over the last 30 days versus the beginning of the season period.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• On Thursday, June 20, the Cardinals and Giants will play their game at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama. The listed field dimensions (321 ft to left, 393 to center, and 332 to right) are comparable to that of Petco Park, though that stadium in San Diego also has the marine layer to suppress offense. Those dimensions are smaller than the average MLB stadium, though renovating the walls and possibly moving them was on the list of preparations for this game. If St. Louis and San Francisco stick with their current rotation, Andre Pallante and Keaton Winn should be the scheduled starters for this game and neither is worth going out of your way to start in an unknown offensive environment.
• The Angels, Nationals, Orioles, and Phillies all have tough matchups on the docket next week. There are just a handful of pitchers who are matchup proof on those teams, but the majority of their pitchers are safe to avoid.
• The Marlins and Twins have pairs of easier matchups on the schedule. Miami might also be recalling Max Meyer this weekend and he’d slot into one of those easy matchups at home next week if he isn’t sent back to the minors.
• We could see the activation of Gerrit Cole, Zac Gallen, and Bobby Miller off the IL next week. None of them have truly desirable matchups on the calendar, particularly Miller who could be activated only to have a start in Coors Field lined up.

Sometimes the scouting report on a player is so straightforward that it doesn’t require a full sentence:

Javier Báez: Throw outside zone.

Among players with at least 150 plate appearances in 2024, only Bryce Harper is thrown to in the zone by pitchers less often than Báez. Here’s a top 10 leaderboard: Read the rest of this entry »

Now that we’re more than two months into the season, we can do a bit of digging to see if we can find pitchers who have improved from month-to-month, specifically looking at Stuff+ since it’s pretty reactionary to changes in a pitcher’s repertoire. Here’s a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 50% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

There are three starters from Oakland listed above which is a bit of a surprise. JP Sears is the most recognizable of that trio as he’s enjoyed spurts of success over the last two seasons. His downfall has been a particularly bad home run problem — something that particularly hurts his value in Ottoneu. In an effort to curtail those long ball woes, he’s adjusted his pitch mix to feature his sweeper as his primary pitch while also increasing the usage of his sinker to try and generate more contact on the ground. His flat four-seam fastball will always encourage fly ball contact but he generates the majority of his swings-and-misses with that pitch so he needs to strike a balance between whiffs and contact management. Recently, he’s been able to thread that needle; over his last three starts, he’s allowed just seven runs in 19 innings while running a pretty good 2.80 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and most importantly, keeping the ball in the park.

The other two Oakland starters are a bit more unproven. Mitch Spence was a rule-5 pick this offseason and is getting a chance to prove himself in the rotation over the last few weeks or so. Across his first five starts in the majors, he’s allowed just nine runs in 26 innings and is running a solid 3.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio out of the rotation. His underlying Stuff+ metrics look pretty decent, with his slider standing out in particular. He’s also running a groundball rate over 50% which gives him a little more value in Ottoneu if he can continue avoiding the long ball.

Pressed into the rotation for the same reasons Spence was, Joey Estes is making the most of it as well. A clunker of a start against the Astros back on May 16 is weighing heavily on his results, but outside of that ugly outing in Houston, he’s allowed six runs in 23.1 innings in his other four starts with a great strikeout-to-walk ratio. Stuff+ also loves his slider and cutter and his command of his four-pitch mix has been outstanding so far.

Spencer Arrighetti has taken a while to acclimate to the big leagues but he’s been on a pretty good run of starts recently. He’s allowed four runs across his last 14 innings with 19 strikeouts. His biggest issue is his lack of command; his walk rate is pretty high and he’s allowed at least two free passes in each of his starts this year. His Stuff+ scores have improved pretty dramatically from the first month of the season, with most of the improvements stemming from his fastballs. He’s in the same zone as Sears where his heaters get crushed when batters put them in play, but he’s also generating a significant number of whiffs with the pitch. Right now, he’s found that balance between earning swings-and-misses while also avoiding too much hard contact.

With injuries decimating the Orioles rotation, Albert Suárez 수아레즈 is getting another shot as a starter. So far, he’s allowed just seven runs in 29.1 innings out of the rotation. All the things I said about him back on April 23 still hold true:

“His calling card is a mid-90s fastball with plenty of carry that he can command at the top of the zone. Batters have swung and missed on nearly 20% of the heater’s he’s thrown in his two starts so far. That’s a ridiculous whiff rate, especially for a fastball. His repertoire is rounded out with a changeup and cutter, both of which are returning decent results so far.”

The ridiculous whiff rate on his fastball has fallen to merely above average with more exposure to big league hitters, but he’s still putting up solid results anyway. His ceiling might not be as high as expected based on his first three starts of the year, but he’s a solid fill-in starter who can provide quality innings for your team.