Cole Hamels could have signed with several different teams and help clarify the team’s rotation. Instead, he went to Atlanta and made a murky situation worse.

While Hamels has not been competing for a Cy Young for several seasons, he has been a production pitcher. Over the last 10 years, he has never posted an ERA over 4.20 (3.42 on his career) or threw fewer than 141 innings. The innings low point was this past season when he lost a month due to a strained oblique.

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The results from the Pitcher List Experts Mocks are in, and the consensus is that Walker Buehler will be a top five starting pitcher in 2020. He was the fifth starter taken in two of the three leagues and was the third starter taken in the third league. This coincides with the results of the 2 Early Mocks, in which Buehler emerged with the fifth-highest ADP among starting pitchers.

I don’t get it.
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It’s always fun to look back at early season performances that surprised and check on how those players performed the rest of the way. Did they continue to surprise or regress closer to what we expected to begin with? I would say that the majority of the time, it’s the latter. In early June, I identified and discussed six starting pitchers severely underperforming their SIERA marks that I believed to make for good acquisition targets. Remember that SIERA isn’t a projection, but rather backwards looking. So if the pitcher’s skills deteriorated over the rest of the season, he obviously would not have made for a good target. Let’s see how they performed the rest of the way.

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11/19/19

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NOTES ON TOP 50s

• Brandon Woodruff: excellent fastball, trusted as a workhorse before injury, 3.35 career FIP
• Max Fried: added slider, improved velo and control, GB lean
• Zac Gallen: 4-pitch mix, big swing-and-miss, career-long HR suppression
• Frankie Montas: premium velo, paired 2015-17 K% w/2018 BB%, new splitter, HR suppression
• Jesus Luzardo: elite prospect w/great K upside, strong 3-pitch mix, could face IP limitation

THE NEXT BIG PITCHER

• Joe Musgrove (5:00)
• Dylan Cease (6:25)
• Michael Kopech (12:24)
• Jose Urquidy (16:30)
• Griffin Canning (20:28)
• Sandy Alcantara (23:12)

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In Early May, I dove into the world of small sample size theater to discuss some of the statistical oddities that had occurred so far on the pitching side of the ledger. Let’s review how these pitchers performed the rest of the way in the metrics highlighted.

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While it might be better to focus on FAAB usage right before the season starts, I wanted to have an idea on how to focus my draft resources. Also, FAAB management was one of my major faults after I picked over my 2019 teams. It was an issue and I need to address it. Now is the time. I took the 50 players with the highest average FAAB bids in the 2019 NFBC Main Event ($1000 in FAAB) and found which players were the best and worse deals and did the best deals have similar actionable traits.

Note: One unintended side effect was that the minimum average value was $51, so all players with a bid of over $50.

To rank the player’s usefulness, I pair them up against each other and let my Twitter followers which of the two players were a better deal last year. While not ideal or the only method I could have used (I could create from value to EOS), it was the quickest and the rankings pass the idiot check (me, myself, and I).

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I’m putting a little star next to these 8 arms who went 300 or later in the Too Early Mocks.

Anthony DeSclafani, CIN | Pick 301

Amped his velo to 94.7 mph and generated a career-best 24% K rate that helped him outrun a hideous 1.6 HR/9 and still post a respectable 3.89 ERA. Home runs have always been part of his profile even with a juiced ball so it’s unlikely that he magically posts a league average or better rate but imagine if he can just cut it to 1.2-1.3 in 2020. A mid-3.00s ERA could be in play.

Aaron Civale, CLE | Pick 309

I don’t want to get too annoying mentioning him as I did discuss him in this piece back in September, but I’ll give him another plug here. Not only do I think Civale himself is solid with a useful 5-pitch arsenal, but I’m also putting faith in Cleveland’s ability to develop arms. Not as good as Shane Bieber, better than Adam Plutko/Josh Tomlin.

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There is no need to beat around the bush with an intro full of cliches and examples. Simply does playing in the postseason wear down a player enough to effect their next season’s production?

Simple answer: Not really.

Less simple answer: Some with hitters, not at all with pitchers.

Complex answer: Danger math.

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Today, let’s review how 10 slow-starting pitchers I first discussed in mid-April performed the rest of the way. Was it a profitable move to acquire any of these pitchers from a panicked owner? Let’s find out.

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Some of the best draft day values can be injured arms who missed all or most of the previous season, taking them off the radar of many fantasy mangers. Some of these guys will fly up draft boards with a strong spring, but others will remain afterthoughts throughout draft season. Here are 10 injured arms to keep in mind for 2020:

Lance McCullers Jr. | Tommy John surgery (Nov ’18)

By having his TJ in November of 2018, McCullers will get the extended 16-month recovery time before returning. This will give him a chance at a full season in 2020, though it’s worth noting that his MLB-high is 128.3 innings so he has to show that he can make it through a full 30 starts in the first place. His #TooEarlyMock (TEM) price was 253 on average (71st among SPs), but it will rise quite a bit with a healthy spring. McCullers is a great target for early drafters on price alone.

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