Last week in honor of Election Day, I elected the hitter all-profit team, comparing NFBC average auction values (AAV) to end of seasons values earned as calculated by the FanGraphs auction calculator. Today, I’ll flip on over to starting pitchers.
Continuing an annual tradition, this article ranks the top 25 starting pitching prospects by peak projected MLB ERA heading into 2025 (skip to the bottom for the ranking!)
Like the other projection systems at FanGraphs, my projections capture the usual ingredients: past performance weighted by recenecy, regression to the mean that accounts for a player’s probability of making the major leagues, major league equivalencies to adjust for minor league difficulty, aging, park effects, and league scoring environment. The peak projections make use of aging curves to translate a player’s forecast to a late-20s peak forecast. Regardless of where the “true” peak age is, there is broad consensus that most growth happens in the teen years and early-20s, however.
Previous deep starting pitcher profiles.
Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz
Taillon, Harrison, Martinez, & Singer
Skipped
Roki Sasaki Read the rest of this entry »
Previous deep starting pitcher profiles:
Skipped:
Roki Sasaki Read the rest of this entry »
Believe it or not there are already 2025 drafts going on over the NFBC! I have resisted the urge to participate in any just yet, but that doesn’t mean I haven’t been dialed into the early average draft position (ADP) data – make sure to change the dates to 10/01/24 through the current date as it defaults the 2024 data. I was particularly curious what kind of price hikes we’d see on some of the biggest breakout pitchers from the season so I went over to our Player Rater to find my pitchers of interest.
I landed on a group of 6 who were all drafted outside pick-200 while finishing as Top 30 starters. Since it is Draft Champions season (50-round Draft & Hold format), I’m comparing this early ADP to their DC ADP from March 20th-27th which consisted of 21 drafts.
Here’s where they are going through 5 DC drafts and what I think about their chances of a repeat:
Paul Skenes, PIT | 2024 ADP: 283 | 2025 ADP: 11
No surprises here as the 2023 #1 overall pick took the league by storm in mid-May and never looked back. In fact, some boards have him as the #1 starter ahead of Tarik Skubal. He has peaked as high as #5 overall and I believe he will go #1 overall in at least one Main Event next spring, barring any sort of news that would create extra injury concerns. He is undoubtedly the best pitcher on this list and thus there isn’t much else to say. I know some will need more than 133 IP to him this high and while I acknowledge nothing is certain and he could suffer a sophomore slump, there is simply nothing in his profile to suggest there is a high or even moderate likelihood of that. You might get him on the turn or just after as he has a max pick of 18, but if you really want Skenes next year, I suggest a mid-to-late 1st round focus for your KDS.
You can feel it in the pit of your stomach. Symptoms of watching a slider hang in the zone from your favorite pitcher include but are not limited to jaw-clenching, toe-curling, fist balling, hot-flashes, “we’ll never make the playoffs” thoughts, and of course, a bubbling sensation in the lower abdomen region. Dylan Cease fans beware, the following GIF may conjure up some of the previously listed symptoms. Read the rest of this entry »
With Mining the News and post-season crowdsourcing done, it’s time to start looking at deep league starting pitchers. With one NFBC draft done, I have some ADP to use. I’ll skip anyone who remains in the playoffs and will return to them once their season is over.
Jesús Luzardo (302 ADP)
After throwing a career-high 178 IP in 2023, the 27-year-old lefty again dealt with injuries (elbow and back) and threw just 66 IP in 12 starts. Even before going on the IL in late April for the elbow injury, he struggled with a 4.5 BB/9 and 6.58 ERA (4.51 xFIP). His command and results improved once off the IL with a 2.0 BB/9 and 3.98 ERA (4.05 xFIP). His fastball velocity dropped from an average of 95.9 mph to 94.5 mph and his strikeout rate from 9.4 K/9 to 6.9 K/9. After those struggles, he went on the IL for a back injury and never pitches again in 2024. Read the rest of this entry »
In late March, just a couple of days before opening day, I shared the names of six starting pitchers and a hitter who I thought the projections would prove wrong. I incorporated various new information we learned over the offseason and during spring training that the forecasting models are unaware of to identify these names. I then commanded you, okay, suggested, that you targets these players, or go the extra buck in auction leagues. Let’s find out how my calls went and these players performed.
Last week, I reviewed the most polarizing hitters in NFBC leagues in early March and determined whether the hitter’s ultimately ranked closer to their ADP, minimum pick, or maximum pick. It was pretty ugly, with nine of 13 ranking closer to their maximum pick, two closer to their ADP, and two to their minimum pick. Now let’s flip on over to the most polarizing starting pitchers in those same leagues, in drafts through March 9. Will the bulls for this group of pitchers end up faring better than they did for the hitters? Let’s find out.
Welcome back to the final Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner of the season. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.
A few general schedule notes:
