OK right out of the gate I gotta say that Lucas outshined me here! His fantastic charts were a great addition to his pitcher breakdowns. I do not have charts… but I do have thoughts!

• Lucas Kelly covered Pitchers Pt. 1 here
• Jeff Zimmerman covered the Hitters here

Upgrade

• Jack Flaherty to LAD: The team context improvement is a massive upgrade and easily dwarfs any sort of park/division difficulty losses.
• Erick Fedde 페디 to STL: An even bigger team context improvement than Flaherty’s that also comes with a little park upgrade in terms of HR suppression (99 in CHW to 93 in STL), though it is worth noting that Guarantee Rate plays to a 99 composite Park Factor while Busch Stadium is at 101.
• Lucas Erceg to KCR: Breakout RP star lands in KCR at just the right moment with James McArthur toting a 5.31 ERA (including 9 ER in 8 appearances this month) and recently acquired Hunter Harvey nursing a back injury. The former hitting prospect sits 99 mph, has a healthy 19% K-BB, and probably deserves better than his 3.58 ERA (3.08 SIERA). A worthy SVs spec this weekend.
• Trevor Rogers to BAL: Team context alone lands Rogers here in the upgrade portion. He hasn’t been the 2021 stud we saw, but I’m certainly not out on him and excited to see what Baltimore can do with him. This might pay bigger dividends in 2025, but I like it. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his L9 which is nice but still comes with a meager 9% K-BB rate in 48 IP of work.

Neutral

• Alex Cobb to CLE: Cobb’s just too much of an unknown to say this an upgrade as he’s yet to throw a major league pitch this year. Team improvement is mitigated by the park downgrade He is slated to make a rehab start on Saturday, August 3rd and he could join Cleveland after that. I’m OK speculating on Cobb in 15-teamers for the stash, but keep your expectations tempered with the oft-injured-but-talented righty.
• Frankie Montas to MIL: Yes, it’s a team context upgrade for sure but will Montas actually be able to leverage it while eating up some innings? His 9% K-BB is half what it was during his 2019-22 run (3.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 18% K-BB in 480 IP) and his 1.4 HR9 won’t get a total reprieve in Milwaukee as American Family Field still sits 8th in HR Park Factor (Cincy is 1st, so it is a noteworthy park boost).
• Jake Bloss to TOR: There is more opportunity in Toronto as they aren’t contending, but he won’t yet be able to take advantage of it as he was sent to Triple-A after the trade and of course, it’s a worse team context. GM Ross Atkins has suggested this demotion might be temporary, though, giving Bloss a chance to breathe and process the trade before being thrust back into a big-league rotation. Stay tuned for his return as he could be a worthy streaming option in deeper formats. That said, I’m more excited about his 2025 and beyond outlook.

Downgrade

• Paul Blackburn to NYM: Better team and better overall park, but it’s worse for HRs (83 OAK, 99 NYM) which is Blackburn’s biggest issue this year (1.4 HR9). Maybe it’s more neutral than downgrade because while I am already out for next week with a trip to COL on the docket, I love the OAK/MIA 2-step at home (yes, even w/the elevated HR outlook) that sets up for the following week. It’s still only a deep league play but not a bad downballot pitcher play this weekend as that Coors start should temper prices.
• James Paxton to BOS: Worse team, worse ballpark, and still running just a 5% K-BB this year. On the other hand, he’s back with pitching coach Andrew Bailey and was moderately successful in Boston last year (17% K-BB, 4.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP). Could be streamable, but I don’t want his at KCR/v. HOU 2-step next week so I’ll pass on bidding this week in anything but maybe AL-Only where anyone breathing has some intrigue.

Closers No Longer Closing… At Least For Now

Essentially just a subset of the downgrade category

• Carlos Estévez to PHI: He is the best positioned amongst this group because while he joins a deep bullpen, they do not currently have a locked in A-tier closer. Jeff Hoffman is having a brilliant season and could no doubt handle the role, but they like having flexibility to bring him in whenever they want so adding another stud in Estévez could push Hoffman to a more permanent fireman role with Estévez getting the bulk of the SVs. José Alvarado isn’t going anywhere and leads the team with 13 SVs, but I think Hoffman/Estévez are the plays for SVs. Even still, he was the full-time close in LAA so this is a loss.
• Tanner Scott to SDP: Fantasy folks really wanted him to head to LAD and take over their shaky closer’s role, instead he joins arguably the strongest pen in baseball. He should still garner occasional SVs when a throng of lefties are due up in the 9th, but Robert Suarez is pretty locked in as the guy.
• Yimi García to SEA: Stuck behind Andrés Muñoz, but having a truly brilliant season (2.45 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 30% K-BB in 33 IP) so should be the first man up should something open up. This one stings a lot less because he wasn’t the full-time guy with Toronto anyway so not many were banking on his limited SVs (5 so far this yr).

It’s difficult to predict how a trade will impact a pitchers fantasy value, but we’ll try to do it anyways. It mostly seems that relievers lose value because they tend to shift out of the high leverage roles that made them a trade target in the first place. Starters provide a little more support thanks to measurable park factors, team defenses and winning percentages. In this article, I’ve provided a comparison of those statistics from one team to another and attempted a best guess at whether the trade was an upgrade, a neutral move, or a downgrade.

• Paul Sporer will cover the rest of the pitchers in a Part 2 coming soon
• Jeff Zimmerman covered the hitters here

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The MLB trade deadline is next week and I’d expect to see plenty of pitchers moved ahead of the deadline. Make sure you’re double- and triple-checking the announced starters, especially on Monday and Tuesday, so that you’re not caught off guard by a surprise trade.
• There aren’t any teams that are facing a pair of tough matchups by the calculate matchup ratings above, but I’d avoid Toronto’s starters if I were you. They’re on the road against the Orioles and Yankees with a scheduled doubleheader in Baltimore on Monday. It’ll be a tough week for the O’s too; because of that doubleheader, they’re scheduled to play eight games in seven days including the start of a road trip next weekend in Cleveland.
• On the flip side, the Diamondbacks and Cardinals both have a pair of easier matchups on the docket next week. It’s a little easier to recommend Arizona’s starters since St. Louis’ have been so erratic this year, but they should all have some pretty rosy matchups to take advantage of.

The MLB trade deadline is just around the corner — don’t worry, the Ottoneu trade deadline isn’t until August 31 — and the search for useful pitching is never ending. Here are a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

I wrote up Yariel Rodríguez at the start of the month and all he’s done since is add a couple more solid starts; he had an abbreviated four inning start against the Diamondbacks on July 12 in which he struck out seven and then struck out another six in a start yesterday against the Rays. Everything I said about him a few weeks ago still applies — I like the improvements he’s made to his strikeout-minus-walk rate but there are some workload concerns still present.

Ryne Nelson has put together a nice little stretch of starts in July; he’s allowed 10 runs in 30.1 innings while running a pretty good 15.4% strikeout-minus-walk rate. None of the pitches in his repertoire really standout from a stuff or results perspective. The biggest difference this month has been a greater reliance on his fastball, increasing its usage up to 63.8%. He’s also raised his release point by a little more than two inches which could be helping him generate a little more carry on his backspinning heater. Batters have had an absolutely terrible time trying to square up his four-seamer; they’ve produced just a .185 wOBA and a .228 xwOBA off the pitch in July and that’s a huge reason why his overall results have seen an improvement. It’s probably worth monitoring his next couple of starts to see if the release point change is really the underlying factor behind his improvement.

You probably shouldn’t go out of your way to try and roster Patrick Corbin, but if you’re truly desperate, there might be some value to be wrung out of the last vestiges of his career. Over his last seven starts dating back to June 13, he’s allowed 17 runs in 39.1 innings while running a 3.19 FIP. It’s not all smoke and mirrors either; his xFIP is a solid 3.67 and his strikeout-minus-walk rate is better than it’s been in years. The cause behind his sudden late-career renaissance? A new cutter that he debuted this year that’s suddenly become a major piece of his repertoire. He’s throwing it more than a quarter of the time in July and it’s returned a 37.5% whiff rate and a .102 xwOBA allowed. More importantly, it’s allowed him to reduce the usage of his absolutely atrocious sinker. Seven starts is just a blip when compared to the years of below replacement level production, but it’s possible Corbin has finally figured out a way to be successful with his diminished stuff.

I also wrote up Dedniel Núñez about a month ago and he’s only solidified his place as a high-leverage option in the Mets bullpen. After a stint in the rotation followed by a demotion to Triple-A, José Buttó has joined Núñez in New York’s relief corps this month. They were desperate for any help they could get, so converting Buttó from a starter to more of a fireman role in their bullpen seemed like a good idea. With Núñez and Edwin Díaz covering the eighth and ninth innings, respectively, Buttó has been largely deployed as a bridge to get to those two relievers in the sixth and seventh innings. So far, it’s worked out. He’s allowed a single run this month and has collected a save and two holds while working multiple innings in five of his six appearances.

Josh Sborz returned from a shoulder injury at the beginning of the month and has slotted right back into the high-leverage mix for the Rangers. He’s collected a hold in three of his five outings and he lasted two innings in two of those appearances. He hasn’t allowed a walk since coming off the IL and has struck out seven.

Jacob Webb has slowly climbed the pecking order in the Orioles bullpen, helped by an injury to Danny Coulombe. He’s been a solid reliever all year long but he’s been particularly effective this month. With Baltimore in the middle of a tough fight for the AL East division lead, I’d expect the O’s to acquire some bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline. Webb has a high-leverage role carved out right now, but that could quickly change over the next few days depending on how they approach the deadline.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Since the All-Star break extended the current weekly matchup to Sunday, July 21, I’m splitting this article into two sections, one covering this weekend and one covering next week. For those of you playing in head-to-head leagues and haven’t hit your games started cap, here’s the projected starters for this weekend:

• The Astros, A’s, Mets, Phillies, and Royals all look like they have pretty easy matchups this weekend. I’d avoid starters from the Brewers, Dodgers, Giants, Nationals, Red Sox, and Rockies. Also note that Milwaukee and Minnesota are off on Friday and play just twice this weekend.

Here are the projected starters for next week:

• Many teams have only announced a handful of starters as they reslot their rotations coming out of the break. There may be some more guess work for who pitches when until each team announces how they’re lining everything up after the weekend. To make matters more complicated, there are a ton of injured starters who will likely be activated sometime next week including Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie, Ray, Jeffrey Springs, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, and Jordan Montgomery. And then there are the potential minor league call ups like Max Meyer, River Ryan, and Matt Manning. All that to say, make sure you’re paying attention to the announced starters for each matchup and plan ahead.
• The Cardinals and Mariners both have a pair of easier matchups next week. It’s easy to recommend every Seattle starter but St. Louis still has a few starters I’d be weary of starting even with such favorable matchups.
• The Yankees have two tough matchups lined up next week, though they’re wrapping up a four-game set against the Rays on Monday giving Carlos Rodón a bit of a respite from the difficult opponents until his second start next week.

Yesterday, I asked you to vote on which group of hitters you expect to post a better wOBA over the rest of the season. One group was composed of the 10 biggest xwOBA overperformers, while the other comprised the underperformers. Let’s now shift over to starting pitchers by comparing ERA to SIERA, pitting the SIERA overperformers against the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period. This is the poll I began with back in 2013.

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It can be difficult to remember all these numbers. You hear phrases like “Garrett Crochet‘s four-seam fastball has a 15.7% swinging strike rate this season” or “Batters are chasing Cristopher Sánchez’s cutter 50% of the time!” Doing anything in baseball 50% of the time is typically standout behavior. Still, these quick statistical callouts can be hard to process without the baseline, or the average, ingrained in your mind. Luckily, sweet corners of the internet give us the data we need to process the things all these smart baseball people say without having to constantly hit the “-10 sec” button on our podcast episodes.

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For a few seasons, I’ve only been involved with Roto leagues after starting with points leagues and doing both for a while. I wanted to see how close Roto values translate to point league values. When I evaluate starting pitchers, I focus on just their Roto value and want to see how much of it translates to point values.

I removed Wins, Losses, and Quality Starts from the equation. Those W/L/QS values can be huge factors in some scoring systems but I wanted to see if there were any major differences with the rest of the formulas. While a manager may cut a deserving start short, thereby limiting a pitcher’s strikeout or the weight of their ratios, most of the time Wins, Losses, and Quality starts are out of the pitcher’s control. Read the rest of this entry »

The All-Star break is quickly approaching and the search for useful pitching is never ending. Here are a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece. I’ve also included two entirely speculative adds in case you really feel like rolling the dice.

If you throw out Andrew Heaney’s first five starts in April, he’s accumulated 321.9 points across 12 starts since the beginning of May at a 4.80 points/IP clip. His overall line is being dragged down pretty significantly by that poor first month and he’s been particularly effective recently. This is nothing new from Heaney; he’s been pretty streaky throughout his career, especially since a lot of his value is derived from keeping the ball inside the park. The most encouraging aspect of this hot streak is the 19.4% K-BB% he’s running across these last 12 outings. It doesn’t come close to his career year with the Dodgers back in 2022, but it’s on par with what he was posting with the Angels before that. He’s probably worth an add during this hot streak if he’s available in your league.

Yariel Rodríguez missed about a month of the season with a back injury but he’s looked particularly strong since returning a few weeks ago. The Blue Jays used him as an opener in front of a bulk reliever a couple of times but have handed him a full starter’s workload in his last two starts. He’s responded by allowing just a single run in 12.2 innings against the Astros and Mariners. Encouragingly, he’s only allowed four walks while striking out 12 during those two outings, alleviating some of the concerns about his ability to command his repertoire. He was also working as a reliever in Japan’s NBP before coming over to the States this year presenting some risk that his workload is being monitored or limited by the Blue Jays to keep him healthy.

The Pirates had been using Luis L. Ortiz as a long reliever or bulk reliever for most of the season but they’ve allowed him to make full starts in two of his last three outings and things have gone swimmingly. Against the Reds and Mets, he tossed 12 innings of one-run ball with 12 strikeouts and no walks. Not that long ago, he was a highly regarded prospect in Pittsburgh’s organization, peaking at number four on their 2023 prospect list. A pretty disappointing rookie campaign soured his outlook but he’s making good on those high expectations a year later. There are plenty of reasons why he’s taken such a big step forward this season: he’s throwing a much more spin efficient four-seam fastball that’s now generating plenty of whiffs; he’s throwing his cutter much more often at the expense of his changeup; but the biggest difference maker is an ability to command his entire repertoire. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has gone from 1.23 to 2.89 leading to better results across the board. The only limiting factor is his future role; the Pirates could continue to let him start for now but he could be pushed back to the bullpen once Jared Jones or Bailey Falter are activated off the IL.

After a failed experiment as a starter, A.J. Puk is back in the Marlins bullpen and posting fantastic results as one of their top setup men ahead of Tanner Scott. Since returning from a shoulder injury in mid-May, he’s posted a 2.63 ERA and a 2.92 FIP across 24 innings. Over the last two weeks, he’s really stepped into a high leverage role, collecting four holds and nine strikeouts across 6.2 innings. I’ve also listed Andrew Nardi above since he’s been a solid setup man in Miami’s bullpen for nearly the entire year. It’s no secret that the Marlins will be looking to sell at the trade deadline which could open up even more high leverage opportunities for Puk or Nardi if Scott is traded away. And it’s even possible one of Puk or Nardi are moved to a contender as well.

I recommended Porter Hodge about a month ago in this column and all he’s done since then is post a 1.59 ERA and a 2.99 FIP across 11.1 innings. He’s finally seeing some high leverage opportunities in a Cubs bullpen that’s been an absolute mess this year. Héctor Neris is currently the ninth inning guy, but every role behind him is pretty much up for grabs. If you wanted to really speculate, Chicago just called up Hunter Bigge a few days ago. He’s posted outstanding strikeout rates at every minor league stop, and if things go well upon his debut, he could quickly force his way into the high leverage conversation too.

If you really wanted to go out on a limb and speculate, Kris Bubic could be your guy. He recently returned from his Tommy John rehab but the Royals have decided to move him to the bullpen because their starting rotation is currently filled with solid options. A year ago, he looked like he was in the middle of an exciting breakout and the velocity jump that helped fuel that success looks like it has stuck around after his injury. The Royals bullpen hasn’t been great with their current closer, James McArthur, looking pretty shaky at times. It’s possible Kansas City will want to try and keep Bubic stretched out in case they need him for the rotation, but they could also push him into higher leverage opportunities as a fireman to alleviate some of the pressure on their relievers.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• A few teams have pretty wonky schedules next week as the season heads into the All-Star break. The Mets wrap up a four-game, wrap around series against the Pirates before hosting a couple of pretty easy matchups in the Nationals and Rockies at home. While I won’t recommend every starter in their rotation, you can feel pretty good about starting Christian Scott for both of his games as well as Luis Severino and Sean Manaea.
• The Nationals also have a four-game, wrap around series against the Cardinals that wraps up on Monday. That gives Mitchell Parker a more palatable start before his tougher matchup against the Brewers later in the week.
• Not only does St. Louis have that weird Monday game, they have a two-game series against the Royals, an off day on Thursday, and then a four-game set against the Cubs that includes a scheduled double-header on Saturday. The off day means they can keep their entire staff on schedule without having to callup a spot starter for the twin bill over the weekend. And like the Mets, all three of their opponents next week look pretty weak; it’s an easy call to start most of their starters next week.
• The Cubs don’t have the same luxury the off day affords the Cardinals so keep an eye on who their announced starters are for that weekend series.