Since 2013, I have polled you dashingly attractive readers on which group of pitchers you think will post the better aggregate ERA post all-star break. The two groups were determined based on ERA-SIERA disparity, pitting the overperformers versus the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period.
Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”
Note: During the All-Star break, at least Paul and I are going to break down pitcher results and they will all be in this article for easy reference. The article will grow throughout the week as more and reports get done. Please submit pitcher recommendations in the comments making sure it’s only actionable pitchers (no Cole’s or Giolito’s).
For those coming back from a two-year submarine tour, here is some background on the current state of the sticky substance ban. Pitchers who use sticky stuff on baseballs create more spin and more spin can lead to more strikeouts for certain pitches. Someone(s) felt it was finally important to start enforcing the rule after decades of turning a blind eye. Here is the time timeline for the crackdown. Read the rest of this entry »
Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. I’m not saying to punt pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching. That said, the pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.
Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.
That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.
Usually, I give you the six or seven pitchers in my pool and have at it, but tonight is a bit different. There are four pitchers that are so obviously the only the most-rosterable that they’re dominating the ownership over the field.
Streaming pitchers is an art form in the fantasy baseball community. Analysts making streamer picks are daring and brave when it comes to putting their picks out there for the world to see. It’s not an easy game. Streaming a pitcher who blows up my ratios is one of the most frustrating aspects of fantasy baseball in my humble opinion, but it happens (don’t act like it doesn’t). But, taking the time to deep dive on a pitcher before streaming can limit the likelihood of having your ratios inflated like a grocery store helium balloon. Here’s how you can take some time with our pitch-type linear weights.
Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”
This past Sunday, there were just a few available middle relievers who seemed to be better additions than some starter, so my co-owner Fred Zinkie settled on Ranger Suárez. Right now, Ranger Suárez has a 0.93 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and 8.1 K/9 and is ranked as the 52nd pitcher according to our auction calculator. While his strikeout rate isn’t the highest, he does average 1.7 IP for each appearance and accumulates 1.5 K in each of those appearances. Also, he has been able to get 3 Wins so far this season (18% Win Rate).
The other option was Giovanny Gallegos who has also been great this season (2.53 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9). He’s averaged throwing 1.2 IP per appearance with 1.4 K per appearance. He’s been able to get 5 Wins during that time (14% Win Rate).
Since the pitcher was supposed to take a starter’s spot, the hope was to get good ratios, some strikeouts, and possibly vulture a Win. After historically finding pitchers with these traits, our two choices were fine with a major flaw. We ignored recent usage.
Read the rest of this entry »
A starting pitcher going three times through the order has been one of those analytically driven game tactics that have had an effect on the game-by-game innings accumulation of starting pitchers. Fantasy managers playing in standard 5×5 roto-leagues know that the only way to decrease a ratio statistic like WHIP ((BB + H) / IP), is to add more numbers into the denominator (IP) while keeping the numerator (BB + H) the same. A pitcher who goes three times through the order is also likely to accumulate a lot of innings. The more quality innings accumulated, the better off your ratios will be. If a starting pitcher faces the lineup a third time and it’s only the fourth inning, chances are they are not going back out for the fifth. So, if we find pitchers who consistently face the order in its entirety a third time, we can generally assume it’s because they are pitching well.
Pitching can be complex in DFS, but it’s simple on some slates.
Just play Jacob deGrom.
Salary, matchup, ownership, leverage. These are all reasons to not play deGrom 100% if we’re mass multi-entering. But his salary is a little too low, his matchup is less overwhelming than we may think, the ownership is high but the gap between him and Corbin Burnes is tight, so the leverage gained by going to that primary pivot is small relative to the gap in their projections.
Looking at deGrom’s violent stats since 2020, he’s clearly too cheap. There’s a great argument that he should be $13k on both sites. He has a:
2.23 SIERA
13.93 K/9
1.79 BB/9
0.62 HR/9
36.3% K-BB rate
As for his matchup, sure, there are big names on the Braves, but they’re just above-average since 2019 against right-handed pitching:
103 wRC+
22.9% strikeout rate
.328 wOBA
The strikeout matchup isn’t great for us, but deGrom can strike anyone out. The Braves’.191 ISO against right-handers is scary, but deGrom’s power prevention is elite.
deGrom will be the highest-owned pitcher on both slates, but RotoGrinders currently has his ownership identical with Burnes on FanDuel. On DraftKings, there’s a gap, but Burnes is still projected to be owned by over a third of the field.
Burnes is a great pitcher in a great spot, making him a great play, but is he close enough in projection to deGrom? I don’t think so. THE BAT has the two ceilings nearly 11 points apart in favor of deGrom on FD and about seven points on DK. This is a huge drop in projection for not much leverage in ownership, bringing us back to salary.
The argument for exposure to Burnes on DK is that he’s a ridiculous $9.2k — $2.3k less than deGrom. Despite deGrom being underpriced, the two might be comparable plays per-dollar because Burnes’ price is a clown show.
But, of course, DK is a two-pitcher site, so playing Burnes doesn’t carry the opportunity cost of not playing deGrom. We can just play both. On FD, that cost exists.
Personally, I’m playing about 100 lineups on FD with at least 75 deGrom. Because of deGrom and what the deGrom-Burnes pairing does, there aren’t many options among hitters there before we get to builds that are too chalky. If I find it too difficult to differentiate on DK, I might only play five lineups.
PIVOT: Ian Anderson
Ian Anderson is the primary SP2 pivot off of Burnes on DK. His $7.1k price tag is also insanely low. His 3.79 SIERA and 10.18 K/9 are both better than Luis Castillo, Tony Gonsolin, Adam Wainwright, and Patrick Corbin, who are all more expensive.
Everyone is seeing this, though, so his projected ownership is near 50%.
I like going overweight or massively underweight on high-owned plays and the former will make all of my lineups difficult to leverage upon if I go overweight on deGrom, Burnes, and Anderson, so Anderson is probably only getting one of five lineups. There’s an argument toward going Burnes-Anderson in 10-to-20% of lineups. The argument being that by not pairing the two with deGrom, we’ve already created leverage in the deGrom omission, coupled with the average salary leftover being $2.3k higher allowing us to have lesser constraints than the field.
LEVERAGE: Adam Wainwright
If Framber Valdez were lower-owned, he’d be analyzed more, but I’m not playing a ~35% Valdez on a slate with deGrom and Burnes. Frankly, it’s the Valdez red herring that’s making deGrom and Burnes palatable plays.
If I decide to put 20-plus lineups on DK, my departure from Burnes and Anderson probably begins with Adam Wainwright.
Wainwright is pitching in Coors, but has a price tag that will deter ownership. We don’t love to play a pitcher in Coors, but the field doesn’t have the stones to do so at all, and this can be exploited to a small degree — well under 10% — and gain leverage over the field.
Wainwright isn’t very good, but he isn’t bad and the Rockies are outright terrible. They have a 78 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since 2019 with a 25.0% strikeout rate. Sure, Coors is a launching pad, but Wainwright’s 6.5% barrel rate allowed since 2020 is right about at the threshold before we start getting scared. And Wainwright’s 8.94 K/9 this season is more than enough to exploit the Rockies’ contact woes.
Wainwright’s Achilles’ heel is left-handed power, but the Rockies don’t have any. Charlie Blackmon is a shell of himself with a 5.3% barrel rate since 2020, and he’s the best they’ve got.
Wainwright is probably a bad single-entry play because the other four pitchers we’ve discussed project better, but in MME, we should want some.
Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”