DFS Pitching Preview: July 1, 2021 — Play deGrom

Pitching can be complex in DFS, but it’s simple on some slates.

Just play Jacob deGrom.

Salary, matchup, ownership, leverage. These are all reasons to not play deGrom 100% if we’re mass multi-entering. But his salary is a little too low, his matchup is less overwhelming than we may think, the ownership is high but the gap between him and Corbin Burnes is tight, so the leverage gained by going to that primary pivot is small relative to the gap in their projections.

Looking at deGrom’s violent stats since 2020, he’s clearly too cheap. There’s a great argument that he should be $13k on both sites. He has a:

2.23 SIERA
13.93 K/9
1.79 BB/9
0.62 HR/9
36.3% K-BB rate

As for his matchup, sure, there are big names on the Braves, but they’re just above-average since 2019 against right-handed pitching:

103 wRC+
22.9% strikeout rate
.328 wOBA

The strikeout matchup isn’t great for us, but deGrom can strike anyone out. The Braves’.191 ISO against right-handers is scary, but deGrom’s power prevention is elite.

deGrom will be the highest-owned pitcher on both slates, but RotoGrinders currently has his ownership identical with Burnes on FanDuel. On DraftKings, there’s a gap, but Burnes is still projected to be owned by over a third of the field.

Burnes is a great pitcher in a great spot, making him a great play, but is he close enough in projection to deGrom? I don’t think so. THE BAT has the two ceilings nearly 11 points apart in favor of deGrom on FD and about seven points on DK. This is a huge drop in projection for not much leverage in ownership, bringing us back to salary.

The argument for exposure to Burnes on DK is that he’s a ridiculous $9.2k — $2.3k less than deGrom. Despite deGrom being underpriced, the two might be comparable plays per-dollar because Burnes’ price is a clown show.

But, of course, DK is a two-pitcher site, so playing Burnes doesn’t carry the opportunity cost of not playing deGrom. We can just play both. On FD, that cost exists.

Personally, I’m playing about 100 lineups on FD with at least 75 deGrom. Because of deGrom and what the deGrom-Burnes pairing does, there aren’t many options among hitters there before we get to builds that are too chalky. If I find it too difficult to differentiate on DK, I might only play five lineups.

PIVOT: Ian Anderson

Ian Anderson is the primary SP2 pivot off of Burnes on DK. His $7.1k price tag is also insanely low. His 3.79 SIERA and 10.18 K/9 are both better than Luis Castillo, Tony Gonsolin, Adam Wainwright, and Patrick Corbin, who are all more expensive.

Everyone is seeing this, though, so his projected ownership is near 50%.

I like going overweight or massively underweight on high-owned plays and the former will make all of my lineups difficult to leverage upon if I go overweight on deGrom, Burnes, and Anderson, so Anderson is probably only getting one of five lineups. There’s an argument toward going Burnes-Anderson in 10-to-20% of lineups. The argument being that by not pairing the two with deGrom, we’ve already created leverage in the deGrom omission, coupled with the average salary leftover being $2.3k higher allowing us to have lesser constraints than the field.

LEVERAGE: Adam Wainwright

If Framber Valdez were lower-owned, he’d be analyzed more, but I’m not playing a ~35% Valdez on a slate with deGrom and Burnes. Frankly, it’s the Valdez red herring that’s making deGrom and Burnes palatable plays.

If I decide to put 20-plus lineups on DK, my departure from Burnes and Anderson probably begins with Adam Wainwright.

Wainwright is pitching in Coors, but has a price tag that will deter ownership. We don’t love to play a pitcher in Coors, but the field doesn’t have the stones to do so at all, and this can be exploited to a small degree — well under 10% — and gain leverage over the field.

Wainwright isn’t very good, but he isn’t bad and the Rockies are outright terrible. They have a 78 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since 2019 with a 25.0% strikeout rate. Sure, Coors is a launching pad, but Wainwright’s 6.5% barrel rate allowed since 2020 is right about at the threshold before we start getting scared. And Wainwright’s 8.94 K/9 this season is more than enough to exploit the Rockies’ contact woes.

Wainwright’s Achilles’ heel is left-handed power, but the Rockies don’t have any. Charlie Blackmon is a shell of himself with a 5.3% barrel rate since 2020, and he’s the best they’ve got.

Wainwright is probably a bad single-entry play because the other four pitchers we’ve discussed project better, but in MME, we should want some.





Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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