Throwing Heat Week 13

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

German Marquez, COL

Last three starts: 19.0 innings pitched, 4.26 ERA, 1.05 WHIP

Mike, Marquez has a 4.26 ERA in his last three starts why the heck is he on here? Well, Marquez had a blow-up against the Reds where he let up eight runs in five innings. If you take that start out, in his last six starts he has a 0.90 ERA. 0.90. In those six starts he also turned in six quality starts just to give you an extra nudge as to how good he has been. 

German Marquez continues to be a workhorse type of pitcher with a slightly above average ERA. The unfortunate part is that he could potentially be a lot better if it wasn’t for Coors Field. We all long for the day Marquez leaves the Rockies and we all can’t wait to see what he is capable of. The guy has two killer breaking balls, both of which have an SwStr% over 20% this season. Which for those who don’t know is pretty fantastic. For the rest of the season expect more of the same from Marquez, his value will come from being healthy and potentially pitching 200 innings. 

Jose Urquidy, HOU

Last three starts: 21.0 innings pitched, 2.14 ERA, 0.67 WHIP

I’m jealous of Houston Astros fans. They continue to just churn out quality pitchers, something to credit their analytics department with. Thus far this season Urquidy has started in 13 games and produced a 3.32 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. 

The glaring issue with Urquidy is the difference in his numbers when it comes to facing left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH). When facing RHH this season his strikeout rate drops five points compared to when facing LHH. On top of that, essentially all of his contact rates are worse including exit velocity, barrel rate, and wOBA. The main culprit seems to be his four-seam fastball. RHH hit it really well and for him to improve even further it might take him reeling in that fastball usage and leaning more heavily on his breaking stuff. 

Overall Urquidy is good at what he does, not obtaining a lot of strikeouts but limiting the walks and inducing weak contact. Moving forward I wouldn’t expect him to hold a low three ERA like he currently has. Some regression will come but he should still be a formidable pitcher with a mid to high three ERA. 

Matt Manning, DET

Last two starts: 10.2 innings pitched, 3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Matt Manning finally got the call this season and has produced good results in the first two starts of his major league career. There are some glaring issues when you look at his two starts. First is the fact that in two starts he only has an 8.9% strikeout rate and 5.7 SwStr%. Both of those are very low and both are way off from his minor league numbers. The second issue is his contact rates. Overall he has a contact rate of 87.3% and a zone contact rate of 89.4%. Both are well above league average. This could be fine if he induced weak contact but his low ground ball rate, high hard-hit rate, and high max exit velocity against proving otherwise.

I’ll admit we are only working with a two-start sample here so it is a little harsh to judge him based on these starts alone. He is supposed to have a good fastball and curveball, the fastball has arrived but not the curveball. Maybe once that starts clicking his numbers will be better. Regardless, Manning looks to be nothing more than a streamer as of right now. While it seems crazy to say this, the Tigers have done a great job developing their young talented pitchers so maybe Manning turns out to be better than I think.  

Shohei Ohtani, LAA

Last three starts: 17.0 innings pitched, 2.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

It’s actually hard to fathom that not only is Ohtani hitting .265 with 23 home runs and ten stolen bases, but he has also pitched 59.1 innings with a 2.58 ERA, 33.1 K%, and 1.18 WHIP. Mindblowing. A front-runner for MVP and as long as he stays on the field it would be hard to deny him the award. Please stay healthy. Something I often ponder is: if he does stay healthy I wonder where he will go in drafts next season. First round pick maybe?

Caleb Smith, ARI

Last three starts: 16.1 innings pitched, 2.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

As a starter, Caleb Smith has pitched five games with a 2.73 ERA,  1.14 WHIP, and 24.8 K%. It looks like Smith has run into luck though, his FIP in those starts sits at 4.41 and his BABIP at .206. My main concern is his xFIP of 5.08.

In these five starts, Smith’s HR/9 is 1.03, overall a great number. Throughout his entire career, Smith has always struggled with giving up home runs. His career HR/9 before this season was 1.71 and his career average HR/FB% 14.0%. Typically history repeats itself which means Smith should start giving up some home runs. If you look at his first three starts this season his HR/9 was 1.88 and HR/FB% 13.6%. On par with his career averages. In his last two starts he hasn’t allowed a single home run. Is this just luck or has he figured something out? It might be too early to tell but there isn’t anything I see as of yet. This means that xFIP of 5.08 should worry you. 

As for the rest of the season, Smith clearly has strikeout potential with his lethal slider. It’s really a matter of limiting home runs and whether or not he can continue to limit them. It’s a tough call, but as of now he is a pitcher you should only use in the right situations. 





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Pirates Hurdles
2 years ago

Hmm, 40HR, 20SB, 120 top of the rotation innings, and likely OF eligibility in leagues with 10 game limits? Pretty sure that would be 1st round material.

Anon
2 years ago

Was going to post the same thing – in leagues where he is 1 player and not split into Ohtani the Hitter and Ohtani the Pitcher (Yahoo being a notable one), he is a no-brainer 1st rounder. Plus, he’s his own injury insurance since he’s shown that even if he hurts his arm and can’t pitch, he still provides so much value with the bat. Frankly I wonder if he isn’t a 1st rounder for his bat alone.