Back during the first week of April, starting pitchers had made just one start…if they had taken the mound at all yet. So obviously, there wasn’t a whole lot to analyze. Rather than go dark for several weeks until there’s enough of a sample size to say anything, I decided to look at which starting pitchers had increased their velocity the most versus 2020 in that one and only start. Now I want to go back and find out if these pitchers actually sustained those increases, and if so, did it also result in a strikeout rate spike. Let’s find out.

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With the projection analysis out of the way, it’s time to start finding some starting pitcher gems for those arms being drafted at pick 300 or later according to NFBC’s ADP.

For reference, here are the pitchers I’ve already profiled:

• Starting and Relievers, Part 1($$): Alzolay, Quantrill, J. Suarez, Thompson, R. Suarez, Thompson, C Hernandez
• Starting and Relievers, Part 2($$): Javier, Lamet, Rasmussen, Steele, M. Perez, Cortes, Espino, Stripling, Long, Houck

James Kaprielian (300 ADP):

Kaprielian didn’t start the season in the majors but was recalled in mid-May to join the A’s rotation. He was likely kept from throwing too many innings since he’s returning from Tommy John surgery, but he showed signs of life.

To start out, his velocity dropped 2 mph from 2020 but that 2020 value was from just 3.2 IP of bullpen work. In 2021, he was sitting 93 mph with a steady climb from averaging 92 mph up to 94 mph. This value is in line with his 2016 Baseball America report of “… sits in the low 90’s and topped out at 96.” Read the rest of this entry »

Drafting early into the “Draft Season” can definitely be a double-edged sword, you could be taking advantage of the early market but you also are risking potential injuries to your players. If you do prefer to draft early I decided to dig into the current ADP and check out some starting pitchers who are going so late that they might be hard to find.

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I’m finally done crunching numbers (part 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8) with late-season pitcher rate stats being the last to go. It’s so monotonous and painstaking, but I’ve learned a few things going through it all.  The Average rises to the top … again with several other projections popping to the top.

First, here are the projections analyzed.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• THE BAT
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• ZIELE (Fantasy Pros)*
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1
• Average of the above projections

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the NFBC ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected all the pitchers in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event) in ten or more leagues. Then I removed all the pitchers who never threw an inning. Read the rest of this entry »

Today, I share the final review of my pre-season Pod Projections posts. This time, we shift to a starting pitcher, Zach Plesac, whose original writeup is here. Plesac did post a sub-4.00 ERA during his 2019 debut, but it wasn’t backed by his skills, as he handily outperformed his ugly 5.13 SIERA. During the short 2020, he enjoyed a true breakout as his strikeout rate surged thanks to pitch mix changes. Let’s see how he did for an encore and how it compared to the projections.

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I’m on the home stretch with most of the comparisons (part 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7) already done. Today, the counting stats for the late-season pitcher projections taking center stage. The boys over at Razzball dominated most of the results with the aggregators coming in near the top … again (might be a theme).

First, here are the projections analyzed.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• THE BAT
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• ZIELE (Fantasy Pros)*
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1
• Average of the above projections

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the NFBC ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected all the pitchers in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event) in ten or more leagues. Then I removed all the pitchers who never threw an inning. Read the rest of this entry »

2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the starting pitching position for 2022. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.

See my other ranks here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/

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We all look at underlying metrics when it comes to any player, but whether we like to admit it or not we still sometimes look at the basic numbers. For pitchers, while ERA and WHIP of course mean something, we all know they aren’t predictive at all. Yet sometimes they are hard to ignore and we think, “well he did have a great ERA.” As a fun little exercise, we are going to compare two pitchers at a time based on underlying statistics to see if we can push away some biases. It’s time for part two, let’s have some fun!

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I completed the counting stat analysis on early March pitcher counting stats after finishing the hitter projection comparisons (part 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5).  it is time for the pitchers to take center stage. For the first article, I’ll measure the accuracy of counting stats from early March. The results were mixed this time with the aggregators having a decent showing.

First, here are the projections analyzed.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• THE BAT
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1
• Average of the above projections

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the TGFBI ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected all the pitchers in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event) in ten or more leagues. Then I removed all the pitchers who never threw an inning. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I reviewed my comparison of starting pitcher spring training strikeout rates to Steamer projected strikeout rates and the list of pitchers with potential strikeout rate upside this past season. Now, let’s review the list of potential walk rate improvers based on the gap between spring walk rate and Steamer projected walk rate. Was Spring the first hint at an improved walk rate than expected? Let’s find out.

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