Archive for Starting Pitchers

As part of the four-player deal that sent long-time ace Roy Oswalt to the City of Brotherly Love, the Houston Astros picked up 27-year-old lefty J.A. Happ. Philly’s third-round pick in the 2004 draft has missed most of the season while rehabbing from a left forearm strain, but he returned to action recently and he’ll make his Astros debut tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers. Is Happ, under team control through 2014, a good bet for long-term success? Let’s take a closer look.

A 6-6, 200 pound product of Northwestern University, Happ has punched out 9.4 batters per nine innings in 281.2 career frames at the Triple-A Level, with 4 BB/9 and 1 HR/9. According to Minor League Splits, Happ’s park-and-luck-adjusted FIP in the International League is 3.76.

With those sort of numbers, you might think that Happ’s a power pitcher. That’s not the case, though — he sits 89-90 MPH with his fastball, supplementing the pitch with a low-80’s slider/cutter, a low-80’s changeup and a scarcely used low-70’s curveball. Prior to the 2009 season, Baseball America mentioned that Happ’s heater “gets on top of hitters quickly” and that he “has deception in his delivery.” However, BA also warned that “Happ lacks a standout pitch and doesn’t figure to get all those strikeouts on fastballs as easily in the majors as he did in Triple-A.” Happ’s high heat in the minors produced lots of balls in the air (40.8 GB%), so concerns over homers were voiced by BA as well.

Happ has thrown 217 major league innings to this point, the majority of which (187.1) coming out of the starting rotation. His ERA looks fantastic, at 3.11. His peripheral stats, by contrast, are more run-of-the-mill. J.A. has K’d 6.59 hitters per nine, issuing 3.48 BB/9. Happ has been a flyball-centric hurler, getting grounders just 36.5% of the time. There’s more than a one-and-a-half run gap between Happ’s actual ERA and his xFIP, which is 4.65.

That huge split is partially predicated on a low BABIP (.273). While more harmful overall because of a much higher slugging percentage, fly balls do have a lower BABIP than ground balls. So, it’s possible that Happ will post a slightly lower BABIP than most pitchers. A mark in the .270’s is pushing it, though — ZiPS projects a .291 rest-of-season BABIP for J.A.

Another, larger reason for the ERA/xFIP gap is an incredibly high rate of stranding base runners — 84.3%. For comparison, the MLB average is in the 70-72% range. You’d be hard-pressed to find evidence that he’s pitching exceptionally well with ducks on the pond, as Happ’s career xFIP with the bases empty is 4.54 and his career xFIP with men on base is 4.77. The big difference? his BABIP with the bases cleared is .330, and with men on, it’s just .202. For comparison, the NL average BABIP with runners on base has ranged from .301 to .306 in recent seasons.

As an extreme fly ball pitcher with average control and modest stuff, Happ looks like more of a decent big league arm than a prime fantasy target. While Minute Maid Park isn’t quite as homer-happy as Citizen’s Bank Park, it also inflates dinger production — six percent for lefties, and 18 percent for righties aiming for the Crawford Boxes. Happ’s a decent pickup in NL-only leagues. If you’re expecting a top-shelf starter, though, you’re going to be disappointed.

It looks like Roy Oswalt is on his way to Philadelphia today, and enterprising fantasy managers facing a trade deadline of their own probably want to know what the implications are for their fantasy team. Let’s take a look.

First, the park move is negligible. According to StatCorner, Minute Maid park boosts home runs for lefties 6% and righties 18% – but the Phillies’ home park boosts home runs 16% for lefties and a whopping 22% for righties. If he starts tomorrow as he is scheduled to do, Oswalt is on pace to make starts against the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, and Nationals (twice) at home in Philadelphia. He averages about 6.45 fly balls per start, so that’s about 32 fly balls, of which 10% would normally leave the park. Boost 3.2 home runs by about 5-9%, and you get somewhere between 3.36 and 3.48 home runs. This might (*might*) mean a home run extra over those five starts combined. The change in home parks is not a big deal, at least for 2010.

What will look better for Oswalt this year are his future competitors. Should the schedule line up correctly with Oswalt starting tomorrow, this is what he is looking at: @WAS, @FLA, LAD, SF, WAS, @SD, @LAD, FLA, @NYM, WAS, NYM, @WAS. Sign me up for some of that please.

Oswalt is currently showing the best strikeout rate of his career (8.37 K/9) and one of the worst groundball rates of his career (43%, 47.4% career) – and is also using the changeup the most he ever has (11.7%, 6.0% career). This is no coincidence. Going off of Harry Pavlidis’ benchmarks for pitch types this year, the changeup gets one of the better whiff percentages in the pantheon of pitches (only splitters and sliders average more whiffs). The lower groundball rate may be attributed to his career-high usage of his slider (16.9%, 10.4% career), which only gets about 45% groundballs according to Pavlidis’ work.

In any case, the added focus on his off-speed stuff has suited Oswalt well. He’ll know have one of the best offenses in baseball behind him, so the 6-12 record should rectify itself, and the schedule lines up well for him during the stretch run. There is little-to-no downside to Oswalt pitching in Philadelphia, unless he insists on driving his tractor from Texas to Pennsylvania.

The Baltimore Orioles are in the process of breaking in a cadre of a highly-acclaimed pitching prospects. Brian Matusz in entrenched in the big league rotation, while Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta have struggled to translate their success in the minors to the highest level. Another blue-chip arm may soon make his major league debut — Zachary Britton could bump the oft-battered Brad Bergesen out of the rotation at some point. Even if Britton doesn’t get the call later this year, he’s a vital part of Baltimore’s rebuilding effort. Let’s examine his long-term value.

The O’s took Britton out of a Texas prep school in the third round of the 2006 draft. The 6-foot-3 lefty added lots of zip to his fastball during his senior year — Baseball America noted that his heater climbed from 86-87 MPH to 92-93 MPH — and he also possessed what BA called a “power curve.” Britton’s velocity did decline during his last few starts leading up to the draft, though. He tossed 34 innings in the Rookie-Level Appalachian League that summer, and he struggled to control the zone (5.6 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 5.41 FIP). After the season, BA said that Britton sat 86-90 MPH in the Appy League, though they predicted he’d crack the 90’s more frequently as his 180 pound frame filled out.

Baltimore took a cautious approach with Britton in 2007, assigning him to the short-season New York-Penn League. He had 6.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.1 HR/9 in 63.2 IP. According to Minor League Splits, Britton’s park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was 3.95, and he generated ground balls at an impressive clip (64.5 GB%). Baseball America said that he showed “the live low-90’s fastball that made him a third-round pick,” while also developing a sharp slider in the instructional league.

In 2008, Britton enjoyed a breakout season in the Low-A South Atlantic League. Pitching 147.1 frames, he used his sinker/slider combo to strike out seven batters per nine innings, hand out 3 BB/9 and give up 0.5 homers per nine. Britton’s adjusted FIP was 3.92, and he maintained his Brandon Webb-like ground ball rate (63.8 GB%). The next year in the High-A Carolina League, Britton whiffed 8.4 per nine, walked 3.5 and coughed up 0.4 HR/9 in 140 innings. Scorching the earth with a 65 GB%, Britton posted a 3.37 adjusted FIP.

Leading up to 2010, Britton earned plenty of superlatives from scouting types. Baseball America named him the number 63 prospect in the game. John Sickels graded him as a B prospect. “Love the grounders, solid strikeout rate, I’m pro-Britton,” said Sickels. ESPN’s Keith Law was an even bigger fan, ranking Britton 25th on his top 100 list. Law liked Britton’s solid punch out rates and extreme ground ball tendencies, and noted the development of the lefty’s changeup:

Britton is a true sinker/slider pitcher with enough velocity to work as a starter and a potential out pitch in the slider to miss bats when he’s not getting ground balls. His sinker has solid-average velocity with legitimate plus sink, and he’ll flash a four-seamer up to 94. His slider — although not as consistent — flashes plus, and he’s willing and able to backfoot it to right-handed hitters, then throwing the sinker away to get a weak grounder or just a swing and miss. His changeup improved over the course of the season to the point that it’s an average pitch or better, eliminating a major concern for sinker/slider guys — a typical weakness against opposite-side hitters…He would slot in very nicely as a No. 2 starter behind Brian Matusz, or as an outstanding No. 3 behind Matusz and Chris Tillman.

Britton began the year with the Bowie Baysox of the Double-A Eastern League, where he posted rates of 7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 0.4 HR/9 in 87 innings. He continued to induce grounders like few others (64.1 GB%) while compiling a 3.44 adjusted FIP. Bumped up to the Triple-A International League, Britton has 5.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and nary a homer surrendered in 27.2 IP. The 22-year-old is — you guessed it — burning lots of worms with a 72.2 GB%, and his adjusted FIP sits at 3.47.

The chances of Britton getting ample major league innings this season are slim — the O’s aren’t playing for anything of consequence, and the southpaw is a little more than 30 frames away from his previous career high workload. In keeper leagues, though, Britton is an intriguing option. He’s not going to post elite K rates, but that’s mostly because he’s too busy getting batters to smack the ball into the dirt. Britton misses a solid number of bats, and his control has improved enough that it doesn’t figure to hinder his development. While Tillman and Arrieta get more attention, Britton might just be the better long-term buy.

The latest on various rotation spots from around the league…

J.A. Happ | Phillies | 35% owned

Jamie Moyer hit the disabled list with an elbow injury that may or may not be the end his long career, and taking his place in the rotation is last year’s NL RoY runner up. Of course, Happ benefited from a tremendous amount of luck last season (.270 BABIP, 85.2% LOB%, 4.33 FIP, 2.93 ERA) and is unlikely to repeat that performance going forward. (R) ZiPS predicts an ERA close to five (4.80, to be exact) and a surprisingly high 7.00 K/9, but I’d probably push on the ERA and take the under on the strikeouts the rest of the way. Happ starts at the Nationals on Friday, then at the Marlins next week.

Joe Saunders | Diamondbacks | 11%

We don’t need to talk much about the Dan Haren side of yesterday’s blockbuster, he’s an always start guy, but the Diamondbacks got a new starting pitcher in the deal as well. Saunders has pretty much established himself as ~4.8 K/9, mid-4.00’s ERA guy over the last three years, save for his 2008 season that featured a .267 BABIP and 75.7% LOB% (3.41 ERA). Switching to the lesser league will certainly help his overall numbers, but remember that he’s going to the D-Backs. The bullpen will probably blow a bunch of his leads, let a bunch of his inherited runners score, and generally just ruin some of Saunders’ perfectly good work. Mediocre starters on bad teams simply don’t have much fantasy value, though Saunders seems to have retained some name value. He’ll make his Arizona debut in Philadelphia on Thursday.

Ross Detwiler | Nationals | 0%

The sixth overall pick in the 2007 draft returned to the big leagues over the weekend after having surgery to repair his labrum in hip, though he got rocked to the tune of five runs (zero earned!) in 3.2 IP against the Brewers yesterday. I’m a fan because he’s consistently shown a strikeout rate above 8.0 K/9 with a groundball rate around 50% throughout his minor league career. Of course this isn’t the minor leaguers, and Detwiler is still subject to the unpredictable ups and downs associated with 24-year-old pitchers. He makes for a fine matchup sixth or seventh starter in NL only or deep mixed leagues, but not much more than that. He’ll start at home against the Phillies this weekend, then at the D-Backs next week.

Quick Notes: Josh Tomlin is making his big league for the Indians against the Yankees tomorrow, taking the place of the injured Aaron Laffey. Tomlin’s a control artist (1.9 BB/9 in his minor league career) and the Yanks tend to struggle against pitchers they’ve never seen before, but I wouldn’t risk it … Dustin Moseley has replaced Sergio Mitre as Andy Pettitte’s fill in, and will start at the Indians on Thursday.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Last week, we examined the difficulty the since-demoted Chris Tillman had in retiring big league hitters. But he’s not the only highly-acclaimed Orioles pitching prospect whose transition to the majors has been bumpy. Nine starts into his rookie season, Jake Arrieta has walked far more batters than he has fanned. Just yesterday, the TCU product failed to strike out a single Minnesota Twins batter while issuing four free passes. Why is Arrieta pitching so poorly? Let’s try to find out.

A 6-5, 220 pound right-hander who fell to the fifth round of the 2007 draft due to bonus demands (the O’s anted up with a $1.1 million offer), Arrieta began his pro career in the High-A Carolina League in 2008. He used his 92-94 MPH fastball, mid-80’s slider, high-70’s curveball and mid-80’s change to strike out 9.6 batters per nine innings, but his control was so-so, with 4.1 BB/9. Arrieta’s park-and-league-adjusted FIP, according to Minor League Splits, was 3.42 in 113 innings pitched. Last year, he split the season between the Double-A Eastern League and Triple-A International League. Arrieta had a combined 8.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 3.91 adjusted FIP in 150.2 innings.

Arrieta was named the 99th-best prospect in the game by Baseball America prior to the 2010 season, with BA saying his “pure stuff compares with any of the Orioles’ elite young pitchers, but his command puts him a notch behind them.” ESPN’s Keith Law ranked Arrieta 90th on his top 100, calling him “a four-pitch guy with no plus pitch but nothing below-average.” Prior to his early-June promotion, Arrieta had 7.9 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 4.11 adjusted FIP in 73 IP. The good-not-great K rate and inflated walk rate portended some turbulent times in the majors — Arrieta’s major league equivalent line called for 6.3 K/9 and 5.35 BB/9 in the show.

To this point, the 24-year-old’s control of the zone has been even worse. He’s got 3.91 K/9 and 5.21 BB/9 in 48.1 IP, with an xFIP (6.10) that’s more depressing than his 5.40 ERA. As pointed out in the Tillman article, it’s important not to draw any definitive conclusions from a small sample of pitching. But right now, he’s not missing bats and he’s not locating his pitches.

Arrieta’s swinging strike rate is 5.5%, a figure which puts him in the same company as Livan Hernandez and Ryan Rowland-Smith. For comparison, the MLB average is 8.4%. He’s getting batters to expand their zones fairly often, with a 32.1 outside swing percentage (28.9% MLB average), but they’re making a ton of contact on those out-of-zone pitches. Arrieta’s outside contact rate is 80.5% (66.5% MLB average). With hitters also squaring up plenty of in-zone offerings (his 90.6% Z-Contact rate is above the 88.2% big league average), his overall contact rate is 86.4%. That’s well above the 80.9% MLB average.

According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Arrieta’s fastball is getting whiffs 4.6% of the time that he throws it (5-6% MLB average). His changeup (14.7%) has gotten more whiffs than average (12.6%), but his slider (11.1%) falls short of the 13.6% MLB average. Arrieta’s curve has been a bat magnet — it has a one percent whiff rate (11.6% MLB average).

As R.J. Anderson pointed out, Arrieta isn’t putting away hitters when he gets in 0-and-2 counts. Baseball-Reference shows that he has gotten in 0-2 counts 22% of the time, close to the 23% MLB average. In those situations, Arrieta has been bashful about breaking out his breaking stuff — he’s using his fastball 61% of the time in 0-2 counts, compared to the 49% MLB average. He has yet to record a K in an 0-2 count.

On a related note, he’s also struggling to throw strikes. Arrieta’s first pitch strike percentage is 54.3%, compared to the 58.8% MLB average. Just 43.4% of his pitches have caught part of the plate (47% MLB average). His fastball is getting strikes 63.6% (62-64% MLB average). Everything else, though, is missing often. The slider has been thrown for a strike 53.8% (63.4% MLB average), the curve 51% (58%) and the change 55.9% (60.7%).

Arrieta’s throwing his fastball for strikes, but he hasn’t gotten a feel for his slider, curve or change. That has led to lots of hitter’s counts. And, when Arrieta has backed the hitter into a corner, he’s not sealing the deal — in plate appearances reaching a two-strike count, he has gotten a K 23.9% (36.5% AL average) and he has walked the hitter 18.2% (8.3% AL average). That tends to happen when a pitcher can’t get a called strike or a swing-and-a-miss with his breaking and off-speed stuff.

Again, all of these numbers come in less than 50 innings. It’s not unusual for a pitcher to stumble during his first taste of big league action. Arrieta doesn’t look like a future front-of-the-rotation type — as Law said, none of his pitches are awe-inspiring, and BA noted that his control isn’t great — but he’s still someone to monitor in keeper leagues. As for the present moment, you might want to let Arrieta work out the kinks on somebody else’s roster.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 17. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Jorge de la Rosa – After being lit up in his first two outings since missing two-and-a-half months with a finger injury, de la Rosa had a strong outing his last start, going 6 IP with 8 Ks in a no-decision. With home starts against the Pirates and Cubs, look for de la Rosa to bounce back into the win column this week.

Jon Garland – Regression has hit for Garland, as the early-season ERA which hovered around 2.00 is now up to 3.61, thanks to back-to-back month of ERAs over 5. But Garland still enjoys a big home/road split. He is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA at Petco, where has both of his starts this week. Get Garland off the bench and into your lineup.

Jonathon Niese – In his last three starts, Niese has a 3.20 ERA with 18 Ks in 19.2 IP but is 0-2. He has had some gopher ball troubles in that span, allowing 5 HR during that stretch. But he has two home outings, where he has allowed just 4 HR in 55.2 IP. Niese has been pitching very well, and if he can avoid serving up homers, he should be able to come away with a Win this week to support his strong showing in the other categories.

Max Scherzer – Since returning to the majors on May 30th, Scherzer is 6-3 with a 2.54 ERA with 74 Ks in 63.2 IP. However, all three of his losses in that span have come on the road, where he has both starts this week. With visits to Tampa Bay and Boston on tap for Scherzer, you may want to remove him from your lineup if you have a reasonable alternative.

Carlos Silva – On July 6th, Silva picked up the win to up his record to 9-2 with a 2.96 ERA. But in his last two starts (one home, one road) he has allowed 11 ER in 2.1 IP, raising his ERA nearly a full run, no easy feat in the middle of July. Silva has had trouble with the gopher ball this year on the road, where he has allowed 5 HR in 42.2 IP, which has led to a 4.22 ERA away from Wrigley. This week he goes to Colorado and Houston. It does not seem like the week for Silva to get back on track, so keep him on the bench this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.
F. Hernandez, J. Johnson, Sabathia, Greinke, Liriano, Danks, Lee, Cain, Strasburg, Hamels, Nolasco, Weaver, Hanson, Garza, Vazquez, Floyd, Zito, Billingsley, Buchholz, J. Garica, Shields, Pineiro, Arroyo, Hammel, Wolf, G. Gonzalez, Blanton, Westbrook, Millwood, Duke, Chen, R. Lopez, Bergesen, Rowland-Smith, Wright.

Because of the All-Star break and no two-start pitchers, there is no update on how my picks went two weeks ago.

Luke Scott, Orioles (Owned in 19% of Yahoo leagues)

The Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy options, Scott has a couple of factors working against his gaining more notoriety — namely, he didn’t start getting meaningful big league playing time until he was in his late-twenties and he’s currently playing for the AL East’s resident doormat. But Scott could well provide a contending team with an upgrade at the trade deadline, and could do the same for fantasy owners willing to look past a lack of name recognition.

Scott’s got a robust .291/.357/.567 line in 277 plate appearances, good for a .396 wOBA. Despite being sidelined in early July with a strained left hamstring, the lefty slugger’s lumber has been +16 runs above average. While Scott might not keep flirting with a .400 wOBA, it’s not like his potent offensive showing is a fluke — he’s a career .268/.351/.504 hitter and holds a .364 wOBA. If you’re in need of some lightning in your lineup, you could do far worse than what Scott figures to provide for the rest of the season — .263/.342/.497 from ZiPS and .258/.332/.471 from CHONE. Give this guy a little respect.

Jason Hammel, Rockies (23%)

Liberated from the Tampa Bay Rays’ pitching factory in April of 2009, Hammel turned in a quality season as a full-time starter — in 176.2 innings pitched, he struck out 6.78 batters per nine innings, walked 2.14 per nine and compiled a 3.81 xFIP. While a right groin strain caused him to miss a few weeks earlier this year, Hammel is performing well again in 2010. The 27-year-old with sharp breaking stuff has K’d 7.5 per nine frames, issued 2.42 BB/9 and has a 3.72 xFIP in 104.1 IP.

Granted, those extra strikeouts might not stick. Hammel is actually getting fewer swinging strikes this season — 6.9%, compared to 9.5% in 2009 (8-9% MLB average). And, his 84.1% contact rate is higher than his 79.9% mark last year and the 81% MLB average. This increase in punch outs is due to more called strikes. Hammel’s getting a called strike 20% of the time in 2010, compared to 17.1% in ’09 (17% MLB average). Called strikes have a lower correlation with K’s than swinging strikes, so it’s unlikely that Hammel continues to fan so many. But even so, he’s a solid option. ZiPS projects 6.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 3.95 FIP for the rest of the season, and CHONE has a forecast with 6.62 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 4.22 neutralized ERA.

After what was probably Tim Lincecum’s worst major league start, Dave Cameron wondered if something’s wrong with San Francisco’s mop-topped ace with the acrobatic delivery. Cameron noted Lincecum’s month-by-month splits:

April: 1.78 BB/9, 10.85 K/9, 49.4% GB%, 2.25 xFIP
May: 5.70 BB/9, 9.91 K/9, 50.5% GB%, 4.10 xFIP
June: 3.38 BB/9, 9.56 K/9, 41.6% GB%, 3.23 xFIP
July: 3.38 BB/9, 7.09 K/9, 44.3% GB%, 4.06 xFIP

From 2007 to 2009, Lincecum had two months (June 2007, September 2007) where his xFIP was over 4.00. He’s now done it two of the last three months. He’s never had a month with a strikeout rate as low it is right now in July.

With Lincecum merely pitching very well as opposed to dominating, I thought it would be worth taking a closer look at the 26-year-old’s month-by-month performance. Here are his plate discipline stats:

Lincecum’s in-zone contact rate has climbed each month, and it’s actually above the major league average in July. Opponents are also putting the bat on the ball more on pitches out of the zone this month, which helps explain the lower K rate. His swinging strike rate has declined each month, sitting slightly above the MLB average in July.

He’s throwing more first pitch strikes, but they’re getting hit harder than is the case for most other pitchers. First pitches that batters decide to swing at are typically creamed, but even compared to the big league average, hitters are faring well vs. Lincecum on the first pitch. Baseball-Reference has a stat called sOPS+, which compares a pitcher’s performance in a given split to the league average. One-hundred is average, and more than 100 means a pitcher is doing worse than most. Lincecum’s sOPS+ on the first pitch is 159 this season. I doubt there’s much predictive value here, but it’s worth noting.

How about Lincecum’s Runs/100 values?

It’s important when looking at these numbers to consider that pitches aren’t thrown independent of one another. The effectiveness of one pitch affects the others, and game theory comes into play as well. It’s not as simple as looking at the chart, seeing a certain pitch is doing well on a per-pitch basis and concluding that the pitcher should toss pitch X more in place of pitch Y. Hitters become privy to changes and adjust, too. If a pitcher makes a change in pitch selection, the batter may notice and start looking for that pitch more often.

With that being said, Lincecum’s fastball has remained effective on a per-pitch basis, while his secondary stuff has posted below-average run values. In terms of pitch selection, Lincecum’s going to his fastball more and his changeup less. His percentage of fastballs thrown has gone from 52.9% in April to 58.7% this month, with his changeup percentage going from 26.3% in April to 20% in July.

While hitters aren’t doing a whole lot with Timmy’s fastball, they’re not whiffing at it as much — 3.1% in July, according to TexasLeaguers.com. That whiff rate was 5.4% in April, 8.8% in May and 6.6% in June (5-6% MLB average). His changeup was whiffed at 34% in April, 24.5% in May, 30.9% in June and 24.3% this month (12.6% MLB average). The whiff rates on his breaking stuff have typically been below-average throughout the year — 8.2% for the curve (11.6% MLB average) and 10.5% for the slider (13.6%).

Given the poor run values on Lincecum’s secondary pitches and the spike in contact (particularly on pitches thrown outside of the strike zone), it’s clear that hitters haven’t been fooled as much recently when Lincecum winds up and fires. That being said, it’s imperative to not make a rash decision based on what may very well be a temporary dip in performance. Even the best players in the game go through stretches during which they’re not at the top of their game. Lincecum has been one of the best pitchers on the planet since 2007, and making a knee-jerk transaction at this point has the potential to backfire horribly. Keep a close eye on The Freak, but don’t freak out.

If you happen to play fantasy football, then you’ve probably figured out that it’s really tough to win a league title with Peyton Manning as your quarterback. It’s not that he isn’t a great player, he obviously is. The problem is that the Colts always clinch a playoff berth only and rest their regulars during Week 17, championship week in fantasyland. Instead of getting a full four quarters (or more) worth of Manning, you’re getting a half or maybe even less. Tough to win with your best player on the bench.

The same theory applies in fantasy baseball, though the impact might not be as severe. Almost every team has implemented some sort of innings limitation on their young starting pitchers, likely shutting them down (or at least scaling back their number of starts) late in the season. That can be a problem for owners who have relied on these guys all season, and suddenly taken away come playoff time.

Replacing that kind of production is often impossible late in the season, so there’s not much more you can do than take the hit if you’ve waited to long to act. What can you do to prevent this? Simple, just trade them to an unsuspecting owner before your trade deadline. Enjoy as much as their production as possible, then spin them off before their team tightens the clamps.

Here are five young pitchers with fantasy value and upcoming innings situations that you may want to avoid. The IP totals listed included majors and minors.

Jaime Garcia | 2010 IP: 103 | 2009 IP: 37.2

Garcia missed basically all of the 2009 season after having Tommy John surgery, so his previous career high comes way back in 2006, when the tossed 155 IP. He does have two other seasons at 103.1 IP and 122 IP, so the century mark is nothing foreign to him. Tony LaRussa seemed to indicate that the team doesn’t have a set limit for Garcia this year, though they will take special care not over to overwork him.

Phil Hughes | 2010 IP: 106 | 2009 IP: 105.1

The Yankees have not put a number out there as far as Hughes’ cap for this season, but the general belief that it will be around 160-175 IP. If true, they’re using his 2006 career high total as 146 IP as his baseline. Unlike the sometimes comical Joba Rules, the Yanks have indicated that they’re going to take a more conventional approach when controlling Hughes’ workload, taking advantage of off days to skip his turn every so often. This plan is already in full effect, as the 24-year-old righty has thrown just 23.2 IP (four starts) over the last 31 days.

Mat Latos | 2010 IP: 106.2 | 2009 IP: 123

The Padres caught a bit of a break when Latos required a sneeze-induced DL stint, and it turns out he won’t even miss a start thanks to the All Star break and off days. Pitching coach Darren Balsley indicated before the season that the team would start to be careful with Latos once he gets to 150 IP, though they understandably have no plans to shut their best pitcher down once he reaches that total now that they’re in a pennant race. Expect San Diego to take advantage of as many off days as possible over the next few weeks, otherwise they’re going to have a problem on their hands come early September.

Mike Leake | 2010 IP: 114.2 | 2009 IP: 142

Leake’s IP total at Arizona State last season appears gaudy, and it is, but remember that he was working on a once-a-week schedule, not a once-every-five-days schedule. Those extra two days of rest between outings is a considerable difference. Dusty Baker said they’re going to skip Leake a few times, but declined to reveal a set innings cap. Speculation has it around 150-175 IP, which really isn’t that far off now.

Stephen Strasburg | 2010 IP: 104 | Career High: 109

Like Leake, Strasburg’s innings came on a once-a-week schedule in college last season. The Nationals have been pretty open about their plan for the young phenom, saying that they will start him on a regular five day schedule and simply shut him down when the time comes. Strasburg will be held to 150-160 IP or so, so he might be a fantasy non-factor by the end of August. He’s on the mound tonight, so that 2010 IP total is going up as you read this. His name alone will get plenty of attention if you place him on the trade block.

Three others worth mentioning are Jonathon Niese, Clay Buchholz, and David Price, but they’re in a little better shape than those guys above. Niese is already up to 102.1 IP this year (not counting tonight), but his career high is 178 IP back in 2008, which came before a 120 IP effort last season (with a hamstring injury mixed it). Buchholz has thrown 99.2 IP this season (counting today), and he threw a whopping 191 IP last season. Price tossed 162.2 IP last year, and is up to 120.1 IP this season. They’re good to go.

Right-hander Chris Tillman is expected to play a prominent role in the Baltimore Orioles’ attempt to climb from the depths of the AL East standings. The 22-year-old, picked up as part of the February 2008 Erik Bedard deal with the Seattle Mariners, has both the performance record and scouting reports to elicit the attention of fantasy owners everywhere. Yet, Tillman’s early turns in the big league rotation over the 2009 and 2010 seasons have been underwhelming — with a 5.24 xFIP in 90 innings pitched, he has been slightly worse than replacement-level. Why has Tillman scuffled so far, and what can be expected in the future? Let’s try to find out.

First, I’d like to point out that the MLB numbers to be referenced have occurred in 90 innings, spread over two seasons. It’s a woefully inadequate sample with which to make any sort of bold claim. I’m simply trying to explore why Tillman has performed poorly to this point. The fact that he hasn’t zoomed out of the gate doesn’t preclude him from becoming a quality starter down the line.

With that disclaimer out of the way, here’s a look at how Tillman’s major league peripheral stats match up with his Major League Equivalent (MLE) line, based on his pitching in the minors over the past two seasons. In other words, here’s how Tillman has pitched in the majors, compared to how we would have expected him to pitch based on his minor league stats:

Actual MLB: 5.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.80 HR/9, 5.24 xFIP
2009-2010 MLE (based on 176 IP with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides): 6.57 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9, 4.31 FIP

Tillman has punched out about 1.5 less batters per nine innings than his MLE suggests. The lack of whiffs is reflected in his plate discipline stats — opponents have made contact against Tillman 84.9% of the time they take a cut (81% MLB average). Tillman’s swinging strike rate is 6.2%, while the big league average sits between eight and nine percent.

Looking at his Pitch F/X data, he has garnered a below average number of whiffs with his 91-92 MPH fastball (reputed to be 94+ MPH in the past) and upper-70’s curveball. Tillman’s heater has been whiffed at 4.6% (6% MLB average), and his curve 6.8% (11.6%). His 79-80 MPH change has a 13.9% whiff rate, which bests the 12.6% MLB average.

Tillman’s walk rate is higher than expected, due at least in part to his getting behind the hitter right from the get-go. Tillman’s first pitch strike percentage in the bigs is 54.5%, compared to the 58% MLB average. According to Baseball-Reference, batters have gotten ahead in the count at some point in 38.1% of their plate appearances versus Tillman. The AL average, by contrast, is 35-36 percent. Tillman has been ahead in the count at some point in 24.8% of opponent plate appearances, while the AL average is 30-31%. He’s spending too much time in hitter’s counts and too little time in pitcher’s counts, which obviously influences both his punch out and walk numbers.

Going back to the Pitch F/X data, Tillman’s throwing lots of strikes with his fastball — 66.1%, compared to the 64% MLB average. But, our Pitch Type Run Values suggest hitters are slamming the offering. Tillman’s fastball has been -1.65 runs below average per 100 pitches. He’s not throwing his curve or changeup for strikes — 50.7% for the deuce (58% MLB average) and 57.4% for the change (60.7%). But those secondary pitches fare better in terms of run value (-0.09 for the curve, +0.43 for the change).

Homers have also been an issue. Tillman has coughed up 1.8 dingers per nine. His home run per fly ball rate is inflated, at 14.1% (the MLB average is about 11%). However, Camden Yards increased home runs per fly ball hit by 15 percent over the 2006-2009 seasons. And, Tillman gives up lots of fly balls — his GB% in the majors is just 38.1%, and it was 37.6% in Triple-A over the past two seasons. If he had given up home runs per fly ball hit at a league average rate (11%) on the road and about 13% at home, he would have been taken deep 16 times so far (1.6 HR/9), instead of 18. Given Tillman’s flyballing ways, he’s not a great fit for his home venue. Perhaps that’s part of the reason why he has been working on a two-seam fastball, an offering that generates more ground balls than any other pitch type.

Fantasy owners, particularly those in keeper leagues, should have patience with Tillman. He won’t turn 23 until next April, and he was considered a top 25 prospect by Baseball America as recently as last season. That being said, there are some concerns here — Tillman’s strikeout rate fell at Norfolk this season, his fastball velocity has been less than advertised and hitters often loft the ball against him, a negative considering his home ball park. In the present moment, expect adequacy instead of excellence — ZiPS projects 6.11 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.69 FIP for the rest of 2010, while CHONE forecasts 6.14 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.37 HR/9 and a 4.68 neutralized ERA.

Right now, Tillman isn’t showcasing the electric stuff that earned him the adulation of scouts. But keeper league players are best off holding tight and hoping that the mid-90’s heat and hammer curve return. Those just playing for the here and now should recognize Tillman’s lack of polish, while keeping a close eye on his outings. Pitchers don’t necessarily develop in a linear fashion; if he’s not hurt, perhaps Tillman’s just a mechanical tweak away from returning to form.