New Astro: J.A. Happ

As part of the four-player deal that sent long-time ace Roy Oswalt to the City of Brotherly Love, the Houston Astros picked up 27-year-old lefty J.A. Happ. Philly’s third-round pick in the 2004 draft has missed most of the season while rehabbing from a left forearm strain, but he returned to action recently and he’ll make his Astros debut tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers. Is Happ, under team control through 2014, a good bet for long-term success? Let’s take a closer look.

A 6-6, 200 pound product of Northwestern University, Happ has punched out 9.4 batters per nine innings in 281.2 career frames at the Triple-A Level, with 4 BB/9 and 1 HR/9. According to Minor League Splits, Happ’s park-and-luck-adjusted FIP in the International League is 3.76.

With those sort of numbers, you might think that Happ’s a power pitcher. That’s not the case, though — he sits 89-90 MPH with his fastball, supplementing the pitch with a low-80’s slider/cutter, a low-80’s changeup and a scarcely used low-70’s curveball. Prior to the 2009 season, Baseball America mentioned that Happ’s heater “gets on top of hitters quickly” and that he “has deception in his delivery.” However, BA also warned that “Happ lacks a standout pitch and doesn’t figure to get all those strikeouts on fastballs as easily in the majors as he did in Triple-A.” Happ’s high heat in the minors produced lots of balls in the air (40.8 GB%), so concerns over homers were voiced by BA as well.

Happ has thrown 217 major league innings to this point, the majority of which (187.1) coming out of the starting rotation. His ERA looks fantastic, at 3.11. His peripheral stats, by contrast, are more run-of-the-mill. J.A. has K’d 6.59 hitters per nine, issuing 3.48 BB/9. Happ has been a flyball-centric hurler, getting grounders just 36.5% of the time. There’s more than a one-and-a-half run gap between Happ’s actual ERA and his xFIP, which is 4.65.

That huge split is partially predicated on a low BABIP (.273). While more harmful overall because of a much higher slugging percentage, fly balls do have a lower BABIP than ground balls. So, it’s possible that Happ will post a slightly lower BABIP than most pitchers. A mark in the .270’s is pushing it, though — ZiPS projects a .291 rest-of-season BABIP for J.A.

Another, larger reason for the ERA/xFIP gap is an incredibly high rate of stranding base runners — 84.3%. For comparison, the MLB average is in the 70-72% range. You’d be hard-pressed to find evidence that he’s pitching exceptionally well with ducks on the pond, as Happ’s career xFIP with the bases empty is 4.54 and his career xFIP with men on base is 4.77. The big difference? his BABIP with the bases cleared is .330, and with men on, it’s just .202. For comparison, the NL average BABIP with runners on base has ranged from .301 to .306 in recent seasons.

As an extreme fly ball pitcher with average control and modest stuff, Happ looks like more of a decent big league arm than a prime fantasy target. While Minute Maid Park isn’t quite as homer-happy as Citizen’s Bank Park, it also inflates dinger production — six percent for lefties, and 18 percent for righties aiming for the Crawford Boxes. Happ’s a decent pickup in NL-only leagues. If you’re expecting a top-shelf starter, though, you’re going to be disappointed.





A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.

Comments are closed.