Archive for Starting Pitchers

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 20.

Bronson Arroyo – He has gotten a decision in his last 11 games. This week Arroyo has two road starts but he has pitched better this season away from Great American Ball Park. Arroyo is 7-3 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.065 WHIP in road action. Put him in your lineup this week.

Dallas Braden – Since returning from an elbow injury that required a DL stint, Braden is 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA. His K rate is a tick better at 5.9 percent but where he has really excelled is in limiting the gopher ball. In 35 IP he has allowed 3 HR. This week he has two home starts against the Blue Jays and Rays. While Toronto leads the AL in HR, it has done most of that damage at home, where it has clubbed 103 HR in 1,852 AB. Make sure Braden is active.

Jonathon Niese – In his last nine games, Niese has thrown a Quality Start in seven of them. The only two times he did not were against the Diamondbacks. This year he has an 8.68 ERA against Arizona and a 3.09 ERA versus the rest of the league. Niese has two road starts this week, but is road ERA (3.57) is nearly identical to his mark in pitcher-friendly Citi Field. The Mets are no longer talking about skipping Niese in the rotation and neither should you.

Wandy Rodriguez – In the middle of June, Rodriguez was 3-10 with a 6.09 ERA. From that point on, he is 6-1 with a 1.79 ERA, which is one of the most dramatic turnarounds you will see. He has a 5.4 K/BB rate with 59 Ks in 60.1 IP. His first start this week against Niese should be a dandy. Keep Rodriguez active.

Barry Zito – He has stepped up his game since the All-Star break, with a 2.57 ERA in six second-half games and a 7.93 K/9. But Zito has struggled in road games this year, with a 2-4 record and a 4.30 ERA. With road matchups this week against Roy Oswalt and Adam Wainwright, it might be a good time to stash him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 20 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lee Wainwright, J. Santana, Weaver, Price, Verlander, Kershaw, Hanson, Nolasco, Danks, Oswalt, Garza, Buchholz, Billingsley, Scherzer, B. Anderson, Vazquez, Baker, Marcum, Garland, Hunter, D. Hudson, Minor, Wells, Gorzelanny, Correia, Francis, Fister, McDonald, Volstad, Millwood, Tomlin, Olsen, Bergesen, Duke, Figueroa.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 18 pitchers and how they fared.

Cahill – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.765 WHIP (2 starts)
L. Hernandez – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 1.26 ERA, 0.977 WHIP (2)
D. Lowe – Advised to sit. W, 5 Ks, 2.38 ERA, 1.059 WHIP (2)
Myers – Advised to sit. 6 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to start. 2 W, 5Ks, 2.25 ERA, 1.083 WHIP (2)

The options on the wire are dwindling as temperatures hit their peaks. Here’s a pair of pitchers with low ownership rates could help the right team in the right place, though.

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado (2% owned)
It looked for a second like Esmil Rogers was the one that would replace Aaron Cook, but that is no longer the case. The team just wanted Chacin to build back up the innings, as he had been in the bully for a little while. Chacin just went seven in the minor leagues and will take the next turn in the major league rotation. And, of course, he’s a really good pitcher that is borderline mixed league material. He’s already good – a 3.77 FIP in less than a hundred major league innings, with a nice strikeout rate (9.73 per nine this year) – but he can even be better. His minor league groundball percentage is 60.1%, and was 66.3% in Triple-A this year – so his major league number (44.7%) could easily improve. He also only walked 2.7 per nine in the minor leagues, but that number also creeped up as he advanced, so perhaps his current number (4.15) represents his actual talent level. No matter. If he strikes out a batter per inning and gets half of his balls on the ground, he’ll be a good pitcher. The key is the strikeouts. After only striking out 7.5 per nine over his minor league career, he’s been doing well in the majors. An 11.3% swinging strike percentage is both above average and a good harbinger of future strikeouts, though, so we’re betting on this young Rockies pitcher.

Jordan Zimmermann, Washington DC (2% owned)
Everyone’s been waiting on the other Nationals pitcher to join the big league team, but they are really babying their second ace. Wednesday marked the anniversary of his surgery, but he’s still pitching four innings at a time on his rehab stint. Compare him to Edinson Volquez, who had the surgery 374 days ago and has already made five starts this year. That’s what being competitive will do to you, perhaps. In any case, Zimmermann’s rehab has gone well. Usually it’s the control that comes back last, but he’s put up a 23-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 29.2 innings while rehabbing, which has to bode well. The strikeout rate and walk rate haven’t been quite as stellar at the higher levels of his rehab, but it’s time to see what he can do in the major leagues – or so says a fantasy manager. If he does come up soon, and can put up anything like his strikeout (9.07) and walk (2.86) rates of last year (his minor league numbers seem to suggest he can), he’ll be a good pickup in any league.

Ownership rates provided by Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

Another week, another starting pitcher update…

Jeremy Hellickson | Rays | 7% owned

Hellboy made a rather spectacular debut against the Twins last week (7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K), and now he’s back for more. The team has announced that he will start tomorrow in Detroit, with either Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann going on the disabled list with a shoulder issue (as of this writing, the team has not announced who it will be). Hellickson certainly has the tools to be successful, but we always have to be cognizant of the natural ups-and-downs a 23-year-old rookie will experience, especially in the AL East. By all means pick him up, but I wouldn’t start him against any great hitting teams until he proves he’s up to the task.

Following tomorrow’s start against the Tigers, he’ll then start at home against the Rangers and then in Oakland.

Scott Kazmir | Angels | 27%

How the might have fallen. Kazmir used to be a fantasy gold mine because he racked up the strikeouts like few others, but these days he has basically no value. I’ve seen a few owners grab him in hopes of a resurgence, but don’t fall for it. His swinging strike percentage is down for the fourth straight year, his walks are up, the homers are up, it’s just ugly. Kinda sad in a way, since Kazmir’s still just 26-years-old. He should be entering his prime right now.

James McDonald | Pirates | 1%

McDonald’s debut with the Bucs following the trade with the Dodgers was rather fantastic (6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K), and now that he has a clear opening for regular starts, we can start to talk about him as a viable fantasy option. His fantastic strikeout and walk rates in the minors (9.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9) haven’t translated yet to the show, but he should settle in as a ~8 K/9 and ~4 BB/9 going forward. (R) ZiPS doesn’t like him the rest of the way (5.34 ERA, 5.08 FIP), but a low-4.00’s ERA is definitely possible in the NL Central with September call-ups not to far away. McDonald starts in San Diego on Wednesday.

Quick Notes: Jason Marquis is back for the Nats, but he’s basically non-rosterable … Esmil Rogers is filling in for the injury Aaron Cook, and although I like him as a sleeper for the long-term, I’d be careful this year.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the latest update to Week 19 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

STL – Chris Carpenter
NYY – A.J. Burnett
ATL – Mike Minor
KAN – Bryan Bullington

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Jaime Garcia
NYY – Dustin Moseley
KAN – Kyle Davies

After getting roughed up in back-to-back starts, Carpenter has ripped off five consecutive strong outings. In that span he is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA. He has 8 BB and 23 Ks in 38.1 IP and has allowed just 2 HR. Overall, Carpenter has a 2.91 ERA but both his FIP and xFIP are nearly a run higher. This is due in large part to a 79.6 strand rate. This is the third consecutive season that Carpenter has posted a LOB% of 75.0 or greater.

After a horrendous June, where he lost all five games he started, Burnett has gotten back on track. In his last six games, he is 3-2 with a 3.98 ERA. Even with his recent string of better pitching, Burnett is still not racking up strikeouts like he has in the past. He has averaged 6.82 K/9 in his last six games, consistent with his 6.86 rate for the entire season. Burnett had his start pushed back due to a sore back, making him a two-start pitcher with two road games this week.

An injury to Kris Medlen and the almost non-existent usage of Kenshin Kawakami, which required a trip to the minors to build up arm strength, opened a spot in the rotation for Minor. The seventh overall pick in the 2009 Draft, Minor moves to the majors after going 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA at Triple-A. He had 12 BB and 37 Ks in 33.1 IP at Gwinnett.

Bullington has made five appearances for the Royals this season, all in relief. But he worked primarily as a starter in Triple-A, where he was 8-2 with a 2.82 ERA for Omaha. The first overall pick in the 2002 Draft, Bullington has not started in the majors since 2008. Lifetime he has made five starts in the majors and is 0-5 with a 7.15 ERA.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 19.

Phil Hughes – After starting the season 10-1, Hughes is just 3-3 in his last seven starts with a 5.58 ERA. He has been hurt with the long ball recently, and has allowed 9 HR in 40.1 IP. But the HR problem is almost exclusively at home. Of the 16 HR he has allowed this season, 15 of them have occurred in Yankee Stadium. Hughes has two road starts this week, including one against the Royals. His road ERA this year is 2.61 so make sure he remains active even despite his recent struggles.

Mike Leake – In his first 11 starts, Leake was 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA. In his last nine starts, he is 2-3 with a 6.11 ERA. Over his last 53 IP, Leake has allowed 10 HR and 19 BB, compared to 28 Ks. In his first 73 IP, he surrendered just 4 HR. Nine of his 14 HR allowed have come at Great American Ball Park and Leake has two home starts this week. Slide Leake to the bench if at all possible.

Vin Mazzaro – In seven of his last eight games, Mazaro has hurled a Quality Start. He has a 4-2 record with a 3.10 ERA in that span. Most of that good pitching has come against sub-.500 teams but Mazzaro does get a game against the Mariners this week. Activate him this week, look for a good first start and then root for the Mr. Hyde half of Scott Baker to show up in Mazzaro’s second outing.

Vicente Padilla – Since returning from a two-month stint on the DL, Padilla is 4-2 with a 1.80 ERA. In 60 IP he has 13 BB and 52 Ks. Yet he is owned in only 62 percent of CBS Sports leagues and is starting in just 38 percent. It’s a tough week for Padilla, with two East Coast road starts. His road splits are not pretty, but the majority of that damage came the first two games of the season, when he gave up 11 ER in 8.2 IP. Since he faces Kyle Kendrick and Mike Minor this week, the matchups are not awful so pick him up from the waiver wire and make him active.

Mike Pelfrey – In the beginning of the season, Pelfrey was riding high as the addition of a splitter helped him get off to a fast start, where he was 4-0 with a 0.69 ERA and a save in his first five outings. But since then he is 6-6 with a 5.04 ERA, or pretty much the same guy who went 10-12 with a 5.03 ERA in 2009. In his last seven games, Pelfrey is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA. He has 16 BB and 14 Ks in 30 IP in that span. This is an easy bench. And even if you think he is bound for regression – he does have a .468 BABIP in his last seven games – there are rumors that the Mets might skip one of his starts.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 19 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Jimenez, Price, Lester, E. Santana, J. Garcia, Dempster, Matsuzaka, Romero, Bumgarner, Baker, A. Sanchez, Jackson, Strasburg, Kennedy, F. Garcia, Zambrano, LeBlanc, Masterson, Matusz, Kendrick, Enright, Fister, Norris, Narveson, Galarraga, Parra, Arrieta, Moseley, Karstens, Davies, O’Sullivan.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 17 pitchers and how they fared.

de la Rosa – Advised to start. W, 3.29 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.317 WHIP (2 starts)
Garland – Advised to start. W, 3.53 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.184 WHIP (2)
Niese – Advised to start. W, 6.10 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.839 WHIP (2)
Scherzer – Advised to sit. 3.00 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.333 WHIP (2)
Silva – Advised to sit. W, 5.06 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.688 WHIP (2)

When the Atlanta Braves selected Mike Minor seventh overall in the 2009 draft, some prospect pundits labeled the pick an uncharacteristically conservative move by an organization known for favoring high-upside prep players. A Vanderbilt product, Minor was regarded as a four-pitch lefty without a plus offering. He was expected to reach the majors in short order, but his ceiling wasn’t considered commensurate with what’s anticipated from a single-digit pick.

A little more than a year later, Minor has proven to be a fast mover. With Kris Medlen (UCL tear) possibly headed for Tommy John surgery, Minor will make his big league debut this coming Monday against the Houston Astros. But that’s not all — after a dominant minor league season, Minor has talent evaluators re-thinking his long-term potential.

At the time Minor was drafted, Baseball America described him as a soft-tossing southpaw who wouldn’t fool many pro hitters. Given the Commodores connection, Minor elicited comparisons to Jeremy Sowers:

Like Sowers, Minor has more pitchability than stuff, with a fastball in the 86-89 mph range and a plus changeup that grades as his best pitch. His other strongest attribute could be his pickoff move, a weapon he broke out repeatedly against Cuba last summer. Minor’s future may depend on his breaking stuff. He formerly threw a slider as his primary breaking ball, and at times it was an above-average pitch with depth. He showed he could throw the pitch for strikes or bury it. Minor added a solid curveball this fall and threw four pitches for strikes this spring, but some scouts think the curve has sapped some of the life off the rest of his offerings.

Minor signed for an above-slot $2.42 million bonus, then tossed 14 scoreless in the Low-A South Atlantic League with a 17/0 K/BB ratio and one run allowed. He also got 16.2 innings of work in the Arizona Fall League, surrendering 10 runs with a 12/6 K/BB. According to BA’s J.J. Cooper, Minor averaged about 90.9 MPH with his heater in the AFL and topped out at 93.8 MPH.

In 2010, the 22-year-old opened the season with Mississippi in the Double-A Southern League. He was hardly the finesse, control-oriented hurler that most anticipated — Minor whiffed 109 batters in 87 innings pitched (11.3 K/9), walking 3.5 per nine and giving up 0.8 HR/9. While his 4.03 ERA didn’t stand out, that was due in large part to a .371 batting average on balls in play. Minor’s park-and-luck adjusted FIP, according to Minor League Splits, was 3.29.

It has been more of the same since he was promoted to the Triple-A International League — Minor’s got 10 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9 and a 2.97 adjusted FIP in 33.1 frames with the Gwinnett Braves. He has been neutral in terms of ground ball/fly ball tendencies, with a 44.1 GB% between the two levels. Per Minor League Splits, Minor’s pitching at Mississippi and Gwinnett translates to 8.1 K/9, 4.9 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 at the major league level.

It’s not just the numbers that are better than anticipated. Minor’s once-modest fastball is popping the mitt with more gusto. Last month, BA’s Jim Callis described the changes in Minor’s stuff:

He’s ditched the curve, and his stuff is sharper. I don’t think anyone was anticipating his velo jump, not even the Braves, but I got several reports he’s hitting 95-96 mph consistently. As a result, he’s not quite throwing as many strikes as he used to. For me, he’s more of a No. 3 starter now [with] a chance to be a 2 if he maintains the velo and improves his control. When he was drafted, I thought he was a No. 4 at best.

With more zip on his fastball, as well as a quality changeup and solid slider, Minor ranked got an honorable mention on BA’s mid-season top 25 prospects list.

Given the large disparity between Minor’s college and pro scouting reports, it will be interesting to see if he maintains his new found velocity over the long haul. The spike in punch outs has come with more walks, but the trade-off has certainly been a net positive. At the very least, we can safely, thankfully leave that Sowers comp in the rear view mirror. Minor is worth picking up in most every league, as his spruced-up stuff gives him bat-missing ability few thought he’d possess.

While Good Doctor is no longer on call, the Toronto Blue Jays still feature a youthful, talented starting rotation. Jays starters boast a collective 4.17 xFIP, a mark bested by only the Minnesota Twins among AL squads. The grizzled veteran of the group is 28-year-old Shaun Marcum, who has impressed in his first season back from Tommy John surgery.

In 125 innings pitched, Marcum has struck out 7.7 batters per nine innings, walked 2.02 per nine and has a 3.24 ERA. Marcum’s xFIP is higher, though still sturdy, at 3.84. The righty gives up a lot of fly balls (38.8 GB% in 2010, 40.1 GB% during his career), and he has given up a home run on just 7.7% of fly balls hit against him. For comparison, his career rate is 11.4% and the MLB average is also around 11 percent. Odds are, that HR/FB figure will climb. But even so, Marcum has missed bats and limited the free passes.

Toronto’s third-round pick in the ’03 draft throws…well, what doesn’t he throw? Marcum has used his 87 MPH fastball less than 50% of the time, supplementing the pitch with a mid-80’s cutter, a mid-70’s curveball and a low-80’s changeup (some low-80’s sliders are sprinkled in, too). That repertoire, coupled with Marcum’s minuscule walk rate, screams “finesse.” That’s not the case, however. Despite not lighting up the radar gun, he’s employing the approach of a power pitcher.

Marcum’s stuff is fooling plenty of hitters. His swinging strike rate is 10.8% (8.4% MLB average), which is tied for seventh among MLB starters with teammate Brandon Morrow. His overall contact rate is 76.1% (81% MLB average), ninth among starters.

Not surprisingly, Marcum’s fastball doesn’t garner many whiffs — according to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, batters have swung and missed just 4.1% of the time that he throws the pitch (that’s whiffs out of total pitches thrown; the MLB average is around six percent). The rest of his pitches have above-average whiff rates, though. His curve has a 12% whiff%, slightly above the 11.6% MLB average, and his cutter’s causing hitters to come up empty 12.2% (8.4%). But it’s his changeup that’s really flummoxing the opposition. Marcum’s getting whiffs 26.9% of the time that he pulls the string, compared to the 12.6% big league average.

With so few walks, Marcum must be pounding the strike zone, right? Nope. He has located just 42.7% of his pitches within the strike zone. The major league average is 47%. Rather, Marcum is adept at getting batters to chase his stuff off the plate — his 33% outside swing rate is well above the 28.9% MLB average and places ninth among starters. Per Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s site, batters have chased Marcum’s cutter 34.9% of the time (27.5% MLB average, according to THT’s Harry Pavlidis). That’s nothing compared to the changeup, however — they’re hacking at 53.2% of changeups thrown out of the strike zone (30.7% MLB average).

Marcum did serve a DL stint in early July with elbow inflammation, while also missing a start with a blister on his middle finger. The Jays might be playing for keeps in another division, but they’re squarely in no-man’s land in the AL East. As such, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the team take it easy with Marcum down the stretch. In the meantime, he’s plenty useful and is available in slightly more than one-quarter of Yahoo leagues.

After the post-deadline frenzy, here are some possible names on our wire that might help. We’ll try to hit one player each for leagues of differing depths to maximize our utility here.

Ryan Ludwick, Padres (67% owned)
Ludwick left the Cardinals and suddenly hit waiver wires for no good reason. I’m guessing it’s being blamed on the change in parks and lineups, but neither of those is a strong enough reason to leave a good platoon bat on the waiver wire. For one, the Cardinals have only scored 19 runs more than the Padres this year – surprising, no? Another surprising fact is that the park factor for righties in Petco is not as terrible as you might think. Though it’s a nasty 59 for left-handers, righties still manage a 92 park factor for home runs in the park. Guess what the park factor in St. Louis was for right-handed batters. Yeah, 73. So Ludwick may get a boost in home run production, might have a couple fewer ducks on the pond – this doesn’t sound like an epitaph because it isn’t one. ZiPs RoS calls for his OPS to surge from a decent .827 to a much nicer .914, and I believe it. I’ll take Ludwick as my final outfielder, thank you very much.

Jake Westbrook, Cardinals (7% owned)
Instead of trying to give sand to Dave Duncan and asking for a sandwich, it seems the team has finally given him something nice to work with. Westbrook fits right inside Duncan’s wheelhouse as a groundballer (58.9% career) that relies on control (2.79 BB/9 career) and has a mediocre strikeout rate (4.96 K/9 career). He even is using his cutter a lot this year (12.9%)! Maybe getting rid of Ludwick to acquire Westbrook didn’t make a lot of sense, but this pitcher, in this park, with this pitching coach – that makes a lot of sense. It’s not magic, it’s just a good marriage. He’ll get a few more wins with that offense behind him, and he’ll probably pitch close to his lifetime xFIP (4.02) given the fact that the number was accrued in the more difficult league.

Kila Ka’aihue, Royals (1% owned)
It must be August if we’re touting a player that hasn’t started since he was called up, doesn’t have the backing of his organization, and grounded into a game-ending double play in his only major league at-bat of the past three months. Huzzah. The thing is, Ka’aihue has some skills – and an apostrophe – that argue in his favor. A 16% walk rate in the minor leagues is actually an elite skill, even. The power is suspect – he had a career .194 ISO in the minors which isn’t what you’d expect from your first baseman – and there’s the rub when it comes to the lack of at-bats, belief from the home club, and fantasy ownership. But this is a team that doesn’t currently have a left-fielder listed on their depth chart and is running Jose Guillen out there every day at designated hitter. Perhaps they can find room for a guy that will get on base, put up a decent batting average, and maybe run into a few homers along the way. It’s not like Gregor Blanco will do any better despite his .300 batting average.

Ownership numbers provided by Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.

Big update because of the deadline activity and one noteworthy call up…

Rich Harden | Rangers | 26% owned

After a month long stint on a disabled with a strained glute, the game’s premier three true outcomes pitcher returned Saturday and held the Angels to one run over seven innings of work. Despite that stellar outing, we know what Harden is: he’s basically a five inning pitcher with enough swing-and-missability to strikeout a batter an inning, but he’ll kill you in WHIP and chances are ERA as well. (R) ZiPS sees a 4.29 ERA (4.33 FIP) with a 1.40 WHIP and 9.64 K/9 the rest of the way, but it’s a risky proposition. Texas will win him some games with their offense and bullpen, but start him at your own risk. His next comes at the A’s, which might be worth it, but after that Texas runs through the AL East gauntlet.

Jeremy Hellickson | Rays | 6%

The best pitching prospect in the minors is getting the call today for what the Rays say is a one start cameo; they’re just giving their usual starting five an extra day of rest. Hellickson’s minor league numbers are off the charts (2.72 FIP between Double- and Triple-A) and he’ll be facing a Twins’ lineup without Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau tonight. These one start jobs are always risky, even with great young pitchers, but everything lines up well for a quality start out of Hellickson tonight. Chances are he’ll be back up at some point this season, maybe as a reliever. It’s worth noting that he’s listed as a RP exclusively in Yahoo! leagues, which may or may not hurt your flexibility if you splurge for it.

Dan Hudson | Diamondbacks | 3%

We’ve written quite a bit out Hudson recently, so I’ll keep it short. Basically he’s moving to an easier league and into a park ever so slightly better for his fly ball tendencies, which obviously increases his value. Hudson schooled the Mets in CitiField yesterday (8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K), and his next two starts come at home against the Padres and in Milwaukee.

Edwin Jackson | White Sox | 51%

The guy Hudson was traded for sees his value drop for similar reasons. Jackson’s moving to a tougher league in a more hitter friendly park, so that 6.92 K/9 and 4.02 BB/9 are going to have to improve if he ever plans on being a low-4.00’s ERA guy. Of course that’s been the book on Jackson for years now. His first start as a ChiSox will come Wednesday again one of his many former teams, the Tigers in Detroit. Hard to believe Jackson’s now on his fifth team and is still just 26-years-old.

John Lannan | Nationals | 1%

There’s really not much to discuss as far as Lannan is concerned, we know what he is (4.84 career FIP), but we should talk about the guy he’s replacing, Stephen Strasburg. The Nats understandably took the cautious road when their franchise pitcher had trouble getting loose last Tuesday, eventually placing him on the 15-day DL. He threw on the side over the weekend and felt fine, so hopefully his return won’t be delayed longer than the two weeks plus a day minimum.

For fantasy owners in redraft leagues, we’re reaching the point of the season where trading a guy like Strasburg is good strategy. He’ll soon bump up against his innings limit, and the Nats are going to shut him down at the slightest hint of discomfort, so if you can deal him to upgrade your team elsewhere or land a more reliable starter, then by all means do it.

Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 51%

Lilly got a lot of play before the deadline as a gutsy guy that pitched inside to righties with his 85 mph fastball and all that jazz, but his fantasy value is limited because of moderate strikeout rates and what should be underwhelming ERA’s. Moving from Wrigley to Dodger Stadium will certainly help lessen his 1.46 HR/9 rate this year, and his BABIP (.261) and LOB% (75.7%) luck has been in play for parts of four seasons now. After 700 innings does that luck become a skill? That’s a question for people much smarter than I, but for fantasy value Lilly certainly gets an uptick following the trade. His next two outings came at home against the Padres and Nationals.

Jake Westbrook | Cardinals | 6%

After Mark Buehrle, I’ve always believed that Westbrook was the perfect St. Louis Cardinals pitchers for no reason whatsoever. I guess something about a sinkerballer and Dave Duncan just makes sense. Westbrook’s walk rate has risen following elbow reconstruction, which isn’t surprising since control and command are traditionally the last things to come back. Moving into the NL should improve his peripherals a touch and lower his ERA, possibly into the low-4.00’s, but he’s still not much more than a fifth or sixth fantasy starter. His first start for his new time comes tonight against the punchless Astros.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 18. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Trevor Cahill – Yes, his peripherals do not match his ERA, thanks mainly to his league-leading .213 BABIP. But he has a 2.19 ERA in eight games at McAfee Coliseum this week and Cahill has two home starts this period, including one against the Royals. Continue to ride Cahill this week.

Livan Hernandez – No one figured Hernandez would be able to keep it up this late in the season. But thanks to his lowest BABIP (.282) in six years and his lowest HR/FB rate (5.4%) since we have the data in 2002, Hernandez has given the Nationals a chance to win each time he pitches. But the veteran has done much better at home this season, where he has an ERA a full run lower than his road mark. With Hernandez and the Nationals having two West Coast road games this week, bench Hernandez for this period.

Derek Lowe – In his last six starts, Lowe is 1-4 with a 5.03 ERA. Even more surprising is that Lowe is having trouble with the gopher ball, having allowed 6 HR in 34 IP in this stretch. While Lowe does have two home starts this week, his ERA at Turner Field is 4.15 for the season. Move him to the bench until he works his way out of his current funk.

Brett Myers – A pitcher with a lifetime 3.89 xFIP, Myers has a 3.78 mark in the category in 2010. However, his ERA is 68 points beneath that mark, which helped earn Myers a contract extension from the Astros. The veteran has really enjoyed pitching in Minute Maid Park this year, where he is 6-0 with a 2.29 ERA. With two road starts this week, give Myers a spot on the bench.

Jason Vargas – Poor run support has hurt Vargas all year long, but especially in his last nine starts. Only once in that span did the Mariners provide him with more than three runs. But the lefty has given Seattle a chance to win on a regular basis this year. And at Safeco Field he is 5-2 with a 2.23 ERA. Vargas has two home starts, so make sure to activate him this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 18 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Halladay, J. Santana, T. Hudson, Gallardo, Pavano, Latos, Lackey, Lewis, Burnett, Beckett, Lilly, J. Sanchez, Buehrle, Kuroda, Richard, Morrow, Wood, Carmona, Saunders, Wells, Westbrook, Duensing, Porcello, Hellickson, Guthrie, Olsen, Cook, Maholm, Lopez, Bannister, Ohlendorf, Bell, West.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 16 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. 2.13 ERA, 9 Ks, 0.868 WHIP (2 starts)
Hunter – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.03 ERA, 4 Ks, 0.675 WHIP (2)
Jurrjens – Advised to start. W, 3.21 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.143 WHIP (2)
Pineiro – Advised to sit. 9.00 ERA, 5 Ks, 2.167 WHIP (1)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. 2 W, 3.46 ERA, 9 Ks, 0.923 WHIP (2)