Archive for Starting Pitchers

The first starting pitcher update of the so-called second half…

Josh Beckett & Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 88% & 81% owned, respectively

The Red Sox are finally starting to get healthy. Buchholz is on track to come off the disabled list and start Wednesday against the Athletics in Oakland, which is a must start for fantasy owners. He’s only missed two weeks, so I wouldn’t worry about the hammy injury limiting his effectiveness or anything like that. You can’t pass up a matchup like that.

Beckett’s a different story. He’s been out since mid-May with a back issue, but even before the injury his peripheral stats were down from last year (-0.55 K/9, +1.41 BB/9, -4.3% GB%). Obviously the injury could have contributed to that. Beckett’s 7.29 ERA is largely a function of a .365 BABIP and 55.9% LOB%, but a return to his ~3.33 FIP form from 2007-2009 through the rest of the season isn’t a given. (R) ZiPS predicts a 4.32 ERA (3.42 FIP) and 8.38 K/9 the rest of the way, though I’d perhaps plan for a few less strikeouts. Maybe that’s just the conservative in me. He’ll reportedly start in Seattle on Friday, another must start even if he’s not the Josh Beckett of old.

Sergio Mitre | Yankees | 0%

The Yankees lost Andy Pettitte for what GM Brian Cashman called four-to-five weeks yesterday, so his spot will be filled by Mitre for the time being. He’s coming off the disabled list himself (oblique), and his two spot starts earlier this year were bad (4.1 IP, 4 R) and good (5 IP, 1 R). The sinkerballer won’t give you any strikeouts (5.46 K/9), though he’ll steal a few wins given the team around him if used properly. His next two starts come against the Royals and at Cleveland, solid matchups.

Rick Porcello | Tigers | 33%

Back up from his minor league crash course, Porcello gave up one run over eight innings against the Indians over the weekend, though he still allowed a fair amount of fly balls plus line drives (17) compared to grounders (11). The sinker is a huge part of Porcello’s success, so until he gets his ground ball rate back closer to 55% than 45%, we’re going to have to hedge our bets. Saturday was a good step forward, now let’s see some more. His next two starts come against the homer happy Blue Jays and the powerhouse Rays. Might want to leave him on the bench for those two.

Quick Notes: Wesley Wright will replace Brian Moehler in the Astros’ rotation and start tomorrow in Wrigley. Moehler hit the disabled list with a groin issue … Roy Oswalt is on target to make his next start (Saturday against the Reds) after taking a comebacker off his ankle yesterday … Scott Kazmir, both ineffective and injured, will be replaced in the Halos rotation by either Trevor Bell or Sean O’Sullivan. The team will announce who gets the start tomorrow, before their game against the Yankees … Mat Latos is expected to come off the disabled list in time for his start against the Pirates on Saturday. Between the All Star break and off days, he’ll end up missing zero starts … Jeanmar Gomez of the Indians was fantastic in his big league debut yesterday (7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K), but was optioned back to the minors today. He’ll be back up at some point, and I definitely dig him as a sleeper. Not a big stuff guy, but good command and a willingness to attack the zone.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Overall, the Minnesota Twins’ starting rotation has been excellent — the team boasts a 4.01 xFIP from its starters, best in the AL. But, while Francisco Liriano is re-establishing himself as an ace and Carl Pavano is thriving on the power of the ‘stache, the rest of the rotation is unsettled at the moment. Scott Baker has been hampered by poor outfield D, but he’s dealing with elbow tendinitis. Kevin Slowey’s vanishing ground ball rate has contributed to a so-so-season. Nick Blackburn, meanwhile, has seen his K rate enter untenable territory.

As such, the Twins are considering moving Brian Duensing back into the starting rotation, likely at the expense of Blackburn. If Duensing does make the shift from the ‘pen, what’s his fantasy value? Let’s take a closer look at the 27-year-old lefty.

Duensing was selected out of Nebraska in the third round of the 2005 draft. A 5-foot-11, 195 pound Tommy John survivor, Duensing was drafted more for his polish and proximity to the majors than for his stuff — Baseball America said he sat 86-90 MPH with his fastball and possessed a solid changeup. BA also voiced concern about the Cornhusker’s durability, as he had to miss the Big 12 Conference tournament due to lingering elbow soreness.

After carving up less experienced hitters in Rookie ball that summer (50.1 IP, 9.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.27 FIP), Duensing made his full-season debut in 2006. He jumped all the way from the Low-A Midwest League to the Double-A Eastern League, with a stop in the High-A Florida State league in between. In 160 combined innings, Duensing had 6.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 0.7 HR/9. According to Minor League Splits, his ground ball rate was 51.8% and his park-and-luck-adjusted FIP checked in at 3.87. After declining to include Duensing in its ’06 Prospect Handbook, BA rated him as the 18th-best talent in the Twins’ system prior to 2007. While noting that nothing in Duensing’s repertoire amazed scouts, BA claimed that “all his offerings — both two-and-four-seam fastballs that sit in the upper 80’s, a curveball, slider and circle changeup — grade out as average or a tick above at times.”

The next year, Duensing split the season between Double-A and the Triple-A International League, spending the majority of his time at the latter level. He whiffed 6.7 per nine innings, walked two per nine and gave up 0.8 HR/9 in 167.1 IP. Duensing got grounders 48.2% of the time while posting a 3.56 adjusted FIP. Baseball America bumped him up to eighth in Minnesota’s system, again lauding his four-pitch mix and quality control.

Duensing’s stock slipped a bit in 2008, as his strikeout rate took a tumble back at Rochester. He punched out five batters per nine innings, handing out 2.2 BB/9 and coughing up a homer per nine frames. Duensing continued to keep the ball down (51.7 GB%), but his adjusted FIP fell to 4.13. BA dropped him to number 16 on the Twins’ top 30 list, wondering if a move to relief might be in his future — Duensing reportedly sat 94 MPH with his fastball out of the ‘pen for the U.S. Olympic team in Beijing.

In 2009, Duensing divided his time between the Red Wings and the Twins. He had 5.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.2 HR/9 and a 46.2 GB% in 75.1 minor league innings. Adjusting for that tiny homer rate, Duensing’s FIP was 3.89. As a Twinkie, Duensing made nine starts and 15 relief appearances. He posted a 4.42 xFIP in 52.2 IP as a rotation member (his actual ERA was 2.72), with 5.64 K/9, 2.56 BB/9 and a 46.3% ground ball rate. Duensing had 5.74 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, a 44.2 GB% and a 5.36 xFIP in 31.1 innings as a reliever. His pitch selection between to two roles wasn’t especially different (he incorporated his curve more as a starter), nor was his fastball velocity (90.5 MPH out of the ‘pen, 91.3 MPH as a starter).

This season, Duensing has pitched exclusively in relief. The surface results look spectacular — a 1.67 ERA in 43 innings. His peripherals, by contrast, aren’t so special. Duensing’s got 5.65 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, a 49.6 GB% and a 4.24 xFIP. That svelte ERA is due in large part to a .241 BABIP and a 91.1% rate of stranding runners on base.

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects 4.83 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9 and a 4.73 FIP from Duensing. That forecast comes in a swing role, so his projected FIP would be higher solely as a starter. CHONE has a more optimistic projection — 4.92 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 1.03 HR/9 and a 4.59 neutralized ERA as a full-time starting pitcher. That’s basically the extent of Duensing’s utility — he could be an average big league starter. There’s nothing wrong with that from the Twins’ standpoint, as a passable rotation arm yet to reach arbitration has value. But fantasy owners shouldn’t get overly giddy about Duensing.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 16. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

R.A. Dickey – The 35-year-old knuckleball pitcher has made 11 starts in the majors this year and has 9 Quality Starts. His only bad outing of the year (5 IP, 5 ER) came in Puerto Rico in a stadium which is not really up to major league standards. Dickey throws strikes, keeps the ball in the park and gets his share of ground balls. Even though he has two road starts this week, make sure he is in your lineup.

Tommy Hunter – Over the last two years (27 starts) Hunter is 15-6 with a 3.58 ERA, including a perfect 6-0 record this season with a 2.39 ERA. But Hunter’s xFIP is over two runs higher at 4.79, the exact same number it was in 2009. The good fortune comes from an 84.9 LOB%. But the real secret cannot be found in Hunter’s pitching record. Instead it comes from the Rangers’ offense, which gives him an average of 7.25 runs per game. It may be luck, but that is a very nice combination. Ride the streak and make sure Hunter is active for his two starts.

Jair Jurrjens – In three starts since being activated from the DL, Jurrjens is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA. The overall numbers are still ugly but Jurrjens is getting his walks under control. Before going on the DL, he had a 4.13 BB/9. Since coming back he has allowed 7 BB in 17.2 IP. Last year he had a 3.14 BB/9. Neither the Padres nor Marlins are teams that draw a bunch of walks, with the Padres being essentially average while the Marlins rank 14th in the NL in bases on balls. Additionally, both teams are below average in runs scored. Jurrjens should be active this week.

Joel Pineiro – Three weeks ago Pinero was mentioned as a start option and he came through with flying colors. But this week fantasy owners should go the other way with the Angels lefty. Pineiro has a huge home/road split in 2010, with a 7-2 mark, a 2.37 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP at home but a 6.39 ERA and a 1.520 WHIP. This week he has road starts in New York and Texas. Put Pineiro on the bench this week.

Wandy Rodriguez – After 14 starts, Rodriguez had a 6.09 ERA and looked like a candidate to be dropped from the rotation. But in his last four outings, each a Quality Start, Rodriguez resembled the pitcher who appeared ready to become one of the top hurlers in the NL in the middle of 2009. Last year he had a 3.06 K/BB ratio. This year it is 1.93 in 101.1 IP. But over his last four starts, Rodriguez has 25 Ks and 6 BBs. This is the Rodriguez owners expected entering the year, so make sure to have him active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Lincecum, Kershaw, Carpenter, Cueto, Jimenez, Hughes, Pelfrey, Silva, Matsuzaka, Leake, Baker, Bumgarner, Slowey, A. Sanchez, Cecil, Sheets, Kennedy, Davis, Moyer, Bonderman, Hudson, Fister, LeBlanc, Feldman, Bush, Francis, Kendrick, Tillman, Arrieta, McDonald, Galarraga, Robertson, Lincoln, Enright, Davies, Hawksworth, Karstens, Laffey, Litsch, Atilano, Martin, Pauley, Lerew.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. Since there was no two-start pitcher column for the All-Star break, there will be two week’s worth of results here.

Week 13
Braden – Advised to sit. Did not pitch – placed on DL
Hammel – Advised to start. W, 3.46 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.231 WHIP (2 starts)
Lilly – Advised to start W, 6.59 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.317 WHIP (2)
Morrow – Advised to sit. 6.00 ERA, 15 Ks, 1.583 WHIP
Pineiro – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.08 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.539 WHIP (2)

Week 14
Ely – Advised to start. 19.80 ERA, 4 Ks, 3.600 WHIP (2)
Floyd – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.23 ERA, 8 Ks, 0.955 WHIP (2)
Lowe – Advised to sit. 2.92 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.378 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. W, 2.77 ERA, 16 Ks, 0.923 WHIP
Wilson – Advised to start. W, 3.38 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.125 WHIP (2)

Coco Crisp, Athletics (Owned in 8% of Yahoo leagues)

For Covelli Loyce Crisp to be relevant in fantasy circles, he does have to, you know, stay on the field. That has been a problem in recent years — the former Indian, Red Sock and Royal was limited to 215 plate appearances last season because of surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder, and he was shelved this season until late May after fracturing his left pinky finger. Then, Crisp strained his right intercostal muscle, costing him another month’s worth of games. Recently, he has been battling a sore left hamstring .

While durability is a serious issue, Crisp does have something to offer owners. The 30-year-old has .372 wOBA in a very small sample (81 PA), with five stolen bases in six tries. Both his ZiPS (.250/.321/.400) and CHONE (.270/.345/.400) projections suggest he’s capable of being adequate offensively, and Crisp still possesses the speed to make some noise once he gets on base. He’s unreliable, but he can help out in the SB department without making outs at a Willy Taveras-like clip.

Brett Myers, Astros (22%)

Myers endured a disastrous 2009 season, missing a big chunk of time following right hip surgery in June and then straining his shoulder upon returning in September. His peripherals weren’t terrible in ten starts and eight relief appearances (6.37 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 4.32 xFIP), but Myers coughed up a mind-boggling 2.29 homers per nine innings — 23.4% of the time a batter hit a fly ball against him, it left the yard. Philly’s 1999 first-rounder had long posted lofty HR/FB rates (15.5% prior to 2010, compared to the 11% MLB average), but that ’09 rate was absurdly high.

Over the winter, the Astros inked Myers to a one-year, $5.1 million deal with a mutual option for the 2011 season. The 29-year-old righty has already earned that cash, and then some — with 2.2 WAR, Myers’ performance has been worth $8.7 million. He has gone to his breaking stuff (a mid-80’s slider and a high-70’s curve) even more than usual this season, and that game plan appears to be working — according to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers, Myers is throwing his slider for a strike 67.9% of the time (63.5% MLB average), and his curve is getting strikes 62.6% (58% MLB average).

He’s got 6.49 K/9, 2.72 BB/9 and an xFIP of exactly four in 129 innings. That HR/FB figure has plunged to 8.3%. That’s likely going to rise, and with it, so will Myers’ 3.35 ERA. But he’s capable of remaining an above-average starter. CHONE (4.60 neutralized ERA for the rest of the season) is skeptical, but ZiPS projects a 4.25 FIP. I’d lean more toward the latter projection.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to recall right-hander James McDonald from Triple-A Albuquerque sometime over the next few days. McDonald, who was scratched from his scheduled Sunday start for the Isotopes, will likely take on the San Francisco Giants Monday night. The 24 year-old is stuck in between career stages — he’s got too much experience with the Dodgers to qualify as a prospect, but he has yet to establish himself in the majors, either. What’s his fantasy value? Let’s try to find out.

A two-way standout at Long Beach Poly High, McDonald was a draft-and-follow selection in the 11th round of the 2002 draft. L.A. opened up the check book after being impressed with his performance at Golden West (California) Junior College, handing the 6-5, 195 pound pitcher/outfielder a $150,000 bonus. McDonald began his pro career as a starting pitcher in 2003 (8.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 3.33 ERA in 48.2 Rookie Level innings), but a bout of elbow tendinitis led the Dodgers to try him out as a position player. The results were disastrous — the lefty-hitting McDonald put up a sub-.600 OPS between the Rookie-Level Gulf Coast and Pioneer Leagues in 2004 and 2005. Convinced that McDonald couldn’t hit the heat, the Dodgers let him resume throwing it.

McDonald returned to the mound full-time in 2006 with a solid performance in the Low-A South Atlantic League. He struck out over a batter per inning (9.23 K/9), though his control was spotty at times (4.11 BB/9). Darnell McDonald’s cousin had a 4.00 park-and-luck adjusted FIP in 142.1 innings. James wasn’t back on the scouting radar, though, as he didn’t make Baseball America’s list of the Dodgers’ top 30 prospects following the ’06 season.

In 2007, McDonald emphatically announced his presence as a prospect. He dominated in 134.2 combined innings in the High-A California and Double-A Southern Leagues, posting rates of 11.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a park-and-luck-adjusted FIP of 3.49. About the only concern was his ground ball rate — it fell from 43.9% in ’06 to 38.6% in ’07 — but that’s nit-picking when a guy pitches so well. Utilizing an 87-93 MPH fastball and a pair of quality secondary pitches (a mid-70’s curveball and a high-70’s changeup), McDonald climbed to number seven on L.A.’s prospect list. Saying that McDonald could be a future number three starter, BA praised his “above-average command of three average to plus offerings.”

Beginning to 2008 campaign back in the Southern League, McDonald punched out 8.6 hitters per nine frames, issued 3.5 BB/9 and gave up 0.9 HR/9. With his rate of grounders again declining (35 GB%), his adjusted FIP in 118.2 innings was 4.03. McDonald got bumped up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League in August, but his stay there wouldn’t be long. After punishing PCL hitters with a 28/7 K/BB ratio and a 3.85 adjusted FIP in 22.1 innings (31.6 GB%), McDonald earned a big league call-up in September. He pitched in relief for the Dodgers, and he even got some postseason action — McDonald whiffed seven Phillies batters in 5.1 scoreless frames during the NLCS. After the season, BA boosted him to number two on the Dodgers’ prospect list.

The Dodgers had McDonald open 2009 in the big league rotation, but the club pulled the plug after a few shaky outings. He was shifted to the ‘pen for a while, but was then sent back to Triple-A to get stretched out. McDonald put up a 3.25 adjusted FIP in 30.1 IP for the Isotopes, with a 40/14 K/BB and a 25 GB%. But, when L.A. recalled him in late June, it was as a reliever. McDonald would go on to log 63 innings in the majors, striking out 7.71 per nine, walking 4.86 and surrendering 0.86 HR/9. With a neutral ground ball rate (44.3 GB%), McDonald had a 4.78 xFIP.

This season, McDonald missed time with a broken fingernail and a strained right hamstring. When on the mound for Albuquerque, he has compiled rates of 8.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9 and a 4.39 adjusted FIP in 63.1 IP. McDonald has kept the ball on the ground more this year, with a 43.4 percent ground ball rate.

What can we expect in the majors, should he stick at the back of the Dodgers’ rotation? Prior to the 2010 season, ZiPS projected 7.44 K/9, 4 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.74 FIP for McDonald (CHONE’s forecast came as a reliever). At this point, he looks more like a league-average starter long-term, as opposed to a high-upside arm. McDonald’s curve and change allow him to miss an above-average number of bats, but his control is just so-so and his fly ball tendencies are somewhat worrisome, particularly in the present moment given the Dodgers’ lumbering outfield alignment — the team has the worst collective outfield UZR in the game.

McDonald’s an option in NL-only formats, though Manny, Kemp and Ethier likely won’t do him any favors. As for keeper leagues, he doesn’t really possess the sort of upside to make him a prime target.

Out since last June, it looks like Reds’ righty Edinson Volquez will make his triumphant return to the big leagues this Saturday against the Rockies. He’s been on the shelf because of reconstructive elbow surgery, but he also mixed a 50-game PED suspension in there as well.

Part of that great win-win trade with the Rangers and Josh Hamilton, Volquez broke out in a big way in 2008, putting together a 4.3 WAR season thanks to 196 innings of 3.60 FIP ball. Last year didn’t go as well before the elbow gave out (5.01 FIP in 49.2 IP), but Volquez is healthy now, which is a great thing for fantasy owners.

Always a high strikeout (8.51 K/9 career, 9.46 in ’08), high walk (4.62 BB/9 career, 4.27 in ’08) power arm (averaged 93.6-93.8 mph on the fastball from 2006-2009), Volquez rolled through the minors during his rehab stint, posting a 28/8 K/BB ratio in 31 IP (six starts) and showing his old velocity. The question isn’t if he’s ready to return to the show physically, but how much should we expect out of him.

The biggest issue are the walks. Command and control is typically the last thing to come back after elbow surgery, and Edinson didn’t exactly pound the strike zone before getting hurt either. I wouldn’t read anything into his 2.3 BB/9 during the rehab stint, because not only is it a tiny sample, but young players in the bush leagues will chase stuff off the plate and get themselves out. Good luck doing that against a non-Astros big league lineup. With the elbow issues last season, Volquez walked a ridiculous 5.8 batters per nine, and I would anticipate something between his ’08 and ’09 marks through the end of the season. Something right around five makes sense, but he could easily best that.

Volquez has always been tough to hit, and I wouldn’t expect that to change, nor would I expect his strikeout rate to plummet. That will help keep his WHIP in check despite the all the free passes. Conservatively assuming 8.5 K/9 with 5.0 BB/9 and 1.0 HR/9 should translate to a low- to mid-4.00’s ERA, which has lots of value when you consider that Volquez has the potential to be so much better than that. The Reds have a solid back-end of the bullpen, so leads and wins should be safe. Coming back from Tommy John surgery can be tricky, but guys with this kind of sheer stuff have a lot more room for error.

Volquez is owned in just 27% of Yahoo! leagues, and even if his return comes a little later than this Saturday, run out and grab him. Adding a starter of this caliber and this late in the season usually takes a trade, but now you (might) have a chance to pull it off without sacrificing anything more than waiver priority. That Saturday start comes against the Rox, and after that Cincinnati has dates with the Nationals, Astros, Brewers, Braves, and Pirates.

Brandon Morrow is already a decent fantasy starter, due to the high number of strikeouts he gets owners every outing. However, he tends to walk too many guys, which can lead to serious problems. I don’t care what NERD says, Brandon Morrow is not a fun guy to watch pitch if you have an interest in the outcome of his starts.

But, during June, Brandon Morrow was super awesome. Morrow pitched 33 innings, striking out 34 while walking only 10. Now, a guy walking 10 batters a month isn’t exactly outstanding, but for Morrow it actually is. His June walk rate was 2.73 batters every nine innings, compared to over 5 batters every nine innings in April and May.

I was wondering what Morrow was doing differently in June, if anything, so I decided to talk to Dave Allen, our resident pitch f/x guru. He told me, and I quote:

I can’t really find anything in the pitchf/x data to indicate how he dropped his ball rate so much. His Zone%, OSwing% and the other likely candidates are all very similar. I also don’t see much difference between where his pitches are ending up in the zone in June compared to May/April. I think it might be just a small sample size thing…Also with just 33 innings it is hard to find tons of patterns in the data.

I find this to be strange, but I’m going to trust Dave on this one. Just looking on the surface of the situation, it makes sense. Morrow’s Strike% was normal, so he wasn’t pounding the zone any more than usual.

Another interesting aspect of Morrow’s June was his batted ball types. Morrow, a flyball pitcher, got over 52% ground balls during the month of June. His rate on the year is 42.5%, and he’s reverted back to his old form in his two July starts.

In his first start of July, Morrow struck out seven while walking one batter, in six innings of work. While he struggled against the Red Sox this past weekend, Morrow has at least shown the potential to limit the free passes. Keep an eye on him, because if this trend continues, he’ll be worth a pickup.

After enjoying a career year pitching out of the ‘pen for the Rangers in 2009, C.J. Wilson was shifted to the starting rotation this past spring. Prior to April 8th, 2010, the 29-year-old hadn’t taken a big league mound as a starter since August 18th of 2005. Strictly a reliever from 2006-2009, Wilson whiffed 8.94 batters per nine innings, walked 4.26 per nine and had a 51.1% ground ball rate. In March, Matt Klaassen theorized about Wilson’s value taking the ball every fifth day instead of pitching in short bursts. The whole article is well worth a read, but here are a couple tidbits:

How good would Wilson be as a starter? CHONE projects him to have a 3.70 FIP in 2010, and ZiPS projects him for 4.17 — an average of about 3.94. Both of those projections are based on Wilson’s performances as a reliever, and as a general rule one estimates that a reliever will be one run per 9 innings pitched worse as a starter. A 4.94 FIP isn’t replacement level, but even in Texas’ hitter-friendly home park, that’s nothing to get excited about other than as a stopgap or back-of-the-rotation type.

However, Klaassen also noted Wilson’s increased ground ball rate in 2009, as well his improved performance against right-handed pitching:

I don’t have a firm conclusion. At first glance, we wouldn’t expect Wilson, a capable reliever, to be that effective as a starter. However, if the new cutter has not only helped his platoon issue but has expanded his repertoire so that he can to get through the order more than once (and perhaps get even more groundballs), then — provided he can handle a starter’s workload over a full season — the Rangers might have something more than just a stopgap starter on their hands.

So far, it looks like Wilson has blown by that modest projection — he holds a 3.35 ERA in 113 innings pitched. But, if you look a little closer, you’ll find some cracks in his seemingly stellar first half. In truth, Wilson has pitched much closer to the level Klaassen forecasted than the lefty’s ERA would indicate.

Navigating lineups multiple times, Wilson’s got 6.53 K/9, 4.38 BB/9 and a 49.5% ground ball rate. As those ratios suggest, Wilson isn’t whiffing a lot of batters or displaying particularly sharp control. Texas’ fifth-rounder in the 2001 draft has a 6.6% swinging strike rate (8.4% MLB average this season), and his contact rate is 83.7% (81% MLB average). Wilson’s getting into hitter’s counts more often that you’d like, throwing first pitch strikes 53.6% (58% MLB average), and he has been about average in terms of putting his offerings over the plate (47.3 Zone%). On pitches out of the zone, Wilson’s garnering swings just 23.4% of the time (28.6% MLB average).

As a starter, Wilson’s using his fastball (down about three ticks in velocity) less than half of the time. He’s going to a high-80’s cutter about 19 percent of the time, a low-80’s slider 12 percent, a low-80’s changeup 13 percent and a mid-70’s curveball on roughly eight percent of his pitches. That cornucopia of pitches has worked wonders against same-handed hitters, but Wilson’s underlying performance against righty hitters leaves much to be desired:

Clearly, Wilson has been fortunate in not yet surrendering a homer to a lefty and in having a microscopic BABIP against them. But he has been pretty effective against LHBs overall. It’s a different story when an opposite-handed batter steps to the plate — Wilson’s often losing the zone against RHBs.

Not that a half-season’s worth of starts should serve as definitive judgment on Wilson’s abilities as a starter, but his peripherals are rather close to what Klaassen predicted. Wilson’s xFIP is nearly 1.4 runs higher than his actual ERA, at 4.71. He has benefitted from a .250 BABIP, seventh-lowest among qualified MLB starters, and he has served up homers on fly balls hit against him just 6.1% of the time. That’s one of the twenty lowest rates among big league starters, and is well below the typical 11% range for pitchers.

If Wilson continues to strike out and walk opponents at a similar clip in the second half, his ERA will almost assuredly rise by a significant margin. There’s also the workload issue to consider — Wilson’s previous career high in innings pitched is 136, and that was at High-A and Double-A back in 2002. Perhaps he’ll handle the increase just fine, but he does have a history of arm ailments (Tommy John in 2003, a biceps strain in 2006, elbow soreness and subsequent surgery to remove a bone spur in 2008, according to the Baseball Injury tool). The point is, we just don’t know.

Given his mild K and walk totals and his entering unchartered territory in terms of innings pitched, Wilson’s a good sell-high candidate. If you can convince an owner that Wilson’s an upper-echelon starter instead of a decent rotation arm with a good deal of risk, now’s the time to make a deal.

Since we are around the halfway point of the season, I have decided to look into which pitchers have ERA’s that differ the most considering their FIPs, xFIPS and BABIP. I used all 3 values helps to find out truly lucky or unlucky pitchers have been this season and the reasons why (i.e. high home run rates or low BABIP).

To start with I took all the pitchers that have pitched over 20 innings so far this season. From this group, I averaged 3 numbers. ERA-FIPs (E-F) is already provided here at Fangraphs. Also, I easily calculated the ERA-xFIPS for the second value.

For the third value, I did a calculation of expect ERA using the batter’s BABIP from this quick calculation of Tom Tango.

The BAPIP ERA formula ends up working out to be:

(((0.300-BABIP)*(Total Batters Faced)) * 0.75) + Earned Runs)/(IP/9)

Explanation of constants (these 2 values can be adjusted if a someone wants to calculate the values themselves):

0.300 = league average BABIP
0.75 = Run value for an extra hit

With all three values calculated, I averaged them into a value determining how much a pitcher’s ERA differentiates from their expected ERA.

I have collected at the pitchers and posted them in this following Google Spreadsheet.

Note: For ease, I will use pERA as the projected ERA considering the pitcher’s FIPs, xFIPs and BABIP

Here are some highlights:

Chad Qualls – (ERA = 8.60, pERA = 4.03) – Chad is by far the unluckiest pitcher so far this season. He has not be exactly lights out, but no pitcher can be good with a BAPIP of 0.468.

Jose Valverde – (ERA = 0.92, pERA = 3.13) – No real surprise that a pitcher can’t mainly a sub 1 ERA. He got to the low ERA with a 0.169 BABIP and giving up only 1 home run so far this season. Jose is actually is striking out less and walking more batters than Chad Qualls.

Tim Hudson – (ERA = 2.30, pERA = 4.04) – Tim’s ERA has been helped in that he has 0.232 BABIP. He has needed a low BABIP since he has not been striking many people at all with a K/9 of 4.5 to go along with a BB/9 of 3.2

Francisco Liriano – (ERA = 3.86, pERA = 2.69) – Most people would complain too much about a starter with a 3.86 ERA, Mr Liriano looks like he should be doing better. He has a great K/9 of 9.8 and BB/9 of 2.5 while allowing only 2 home runs so far this season.

There won’t be too many rotation spots changing this week for obvious reasons, but here are a few notes anyway…

Jorge De La Rosa | Rockies | 56% owned

Last year’s breakout lefty had been out since late April with a flexor band strain in his middle finger before returning last week. The Padres knocked him around (seven runs in 4.1 IP), but I wouldn’t let that sway my outlook much. JDLR is still a super-high strikeout pitcher (10.54 K/9 in 2010, six last start), but his shaky control means he’ll never dominate the ERA and WHIP categories. (R) ZiPS projects a 4.80 ERA (4.13 FIP) with 8.10 K/9 the rest of the way, but a little LOB% luck (62.2% this year, 68.5% over the last three years) could have his ERA in the low-4.00’s. His first start after the break will come in Cincinnati on Saturday.

Daniel Hudson | White Sox | 7% owned

David Golebiewski already took an in-depth look at Hudson, so I’m going to cop out and refer you to that. Hudson is taking the place of Jake Peavy, who is done for the season after tearing a lat muscle right off the bone. Ouch. He’ll first start of the second half comes in Seattle, but not until next Monday.

Chris Tillman | Orioles | 2% owned

Back in the bigs after a rather disastrous four start stint with the O’s earlier this season (15 R, 8 BB, 7 K in 15 IP), Tillman twirled a gem on Saturday, holding the Rangers to two hits and one unearned run in 7.1 IP. Tillman’s strikeout rate has never been the same since getting his first taste of the bigs last year, going from 9.94 K/9 before his ML debut to 5.89 since (majors and minors). Phil Hughes went through something similar when he debuted, and it had more to do with rookie jitters (nibbling instead of attacking hitters) than decline in stuff. I’d expect Tillman to improve his strikeout rate in the future, but that probably won’t come this year. He has value in a deep keeper league, but not much more than that.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.