Archive for Starting Pitchers

Once a fantasy superstar, always a fantasy superstar? Not so much if you’re Edinson Volquez.

Volquez put up dominant fantasy numbers in 2008, winning 17 games with an ERA of 3.20. However, neither his FIP nor xFIP was entirely impressive, mostly because his walk rate was worrisome.

When Volquez tried to duplicate his numbers during the 2009 season, he was shut down and had to undergo Tommy John surgery after throwing less than 50 innings. In those innings, Volquez’s control got worse, as did his ground ball rate and his ability to miss bats. Calling 2009 a disaster for Volquez is putting it lightly.

After returning from injury late this season, Volquez started out very slow for the Reds. His control problems were back, and he was giving up way too many homers. But, in miraculous fashion, Volquez turned the corner big time in September, looking better than he did in 2008. His ability to miss bats was at an all-time high, and he did a great job of keeping the walks to a minimum and delivering ground balls.

Even in his best year, his WHIP was high and his K/BB rate was not spectacular. But, he was only 24 at the times, and the extra two years (even if they were shortened by injury) could have done him a world of good.

So, here’s the question I have for you: Will owners buy into his strong finish and his name value, or are they far too skeptical to assign much value to Volquez? To date, this is the toughest one to gauge, at least for me.

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

After the success Dave had with the Contract Crowdsourcing series on the other side of the FanGraphs pond, we’re going to give it a shot over here at RotoGraphs. Of course, ours won’t deal with contracts, but rather with a players’ average draft position (ADP). Below I will present you with a brief profile of the player in question, and you’ll cast a vote for where he’ll be drafted in 2011. If you, the influential reader, like this idea, then we’ll keep it going throughout the offseason.

First, and possibly last, in our ADP Crowdsourcing series is Brandon Morrow. After being handled poorly by the Mariners organization, the Blue Jays acquired Morrow for Brandon League and a prospect.

Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 38 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics.

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Felipe Paulino – pitched in just 5.2 innings after the break. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to a lack of playing time.

Francisco Liriano – His second half ERA was better than his first half mark, but both metrics thought he was outstanding before the All-Star break. This is a clear win for xFIP.

Anibal Sanchez – His 2nd half ERA (3.44) was a near-perfect match for his first half FIP (3.46).

Clay Buchholz – Both systems thought Buchholz was not nearly as good as he was in the first half. FIP had his as a keep while xFIP said he was an active sell. Since Buchholz did even better in the second half of the season than the first, this was a clear victory for FIP.

Josh Johnson – Both systems had Johnson as a keeper, but xFIP did a better job predicting his 3.50 post All-Star break mark.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – After allowing 4 HR in 71 IP in the first half, Matsuzaka served up 9 HR in 82.2 IP after the break. Big win for xFIP.

Johan Santana – His 3.00 ERA in the second half almost identical to his first half mark of 2.98. xFIP had Santana as a cut, so an easy win for FIP.

Jason Vargas – Eight of his 14 starts after the break came on the road and he allowed eight of his 10 second half HR away from Safeco. Big win for xFIP.

Justin Verlander – In the last three years, Verlander has posted an ERA over 5.50 in the month of April. He was terrific from May 1st through the end of the season again in 2010. Easy win for FIP.

Barry Zito – A lousy second half of the season made Zito a spectator for the Giants in the post-season. xFIP did an outstanding job predicting Zito’s collapse.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Just like with Zito, xFIP was just about perfect predicting Jimenez in the second half.

Tom Gorzelanny – Both systems saw Gorzelanny as a pretty good pitcher, but xFIP came closer to his second-half collapse.

John Danks – Again, the crystal ball for xFIP was right on target for Danks.

Tommy Hanson – In both seasons in the majors, Hanson has outperformed his xFIP. He turned it up a notch in the second half of 2010, thanks as much to his .233 BABIP as his 7 HR in 100.1 IP.

Matt Cain – Another pitcher with a history of outperforming his peripherals, Cain beat his FIP by nearly a run and his xFIP by nearly two runs in the second half of 2010.

Clayton Kershaw – Just as good in the second half of the season as he was in the first.

Cliff Lee – Many people wanted to eliminate Lee from this study last year, as he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. But Lee outpitched his xFIP after the break in 2009. No such luck for Lee this year while following a similar story line of moving to a tougher park for pitchers.

C.J. Wilson – Like Kershaw, he was remarkable consistent between halves and ended up as a win for FIP.

Livan Hernandez – Those of us who kept predicting the bottom to fall out for Hernandez in 2010 are still waiting. Meanwhile, his second half ERA of 4.02 was a perfect match for his first half FIP.

Doug Fister – I imagine even the staunchest FIP supporters were shopping Fister every chance they could.

Fausto Carmona – After back-to-back seasons with a BB/9 over 5.00, Carmona allowed just 29 BB in 94.0 IP after the break last year. That had more to do with it than HR rate (10 HR in 94 IP) for why FIP was a clear winner.

Gavin Floyd – Fantasy owners did not know start from start what to expect from Floyd, but xFIP did a nice job of predicting his second half ERA.

Mark Buehrle – Like Wilson and Kershaw, Buehrle was a model of consistency with his ERA between halves this year. However, I worry about his K/9 rate and would be shocked if he was on any of my teams next year.

Brandon Morrow – With the Blue Jays out of the race, they decided to shut down a healthy Morrow after his first September start, which limited him to 46.1 IP after the break. A polar opposite to Buehrle, Morrow posted a 10.95 K/9, up from 8.14 a season ago.

Johnny Cueto – Cueto’s second half ERA was in the range predicted by his first half FIP and xFIP. But it was just 0.05 away from his FIP.

John Lackey – His second half ERA of 3.97 was a nice match for his 3.89 career mark but I doubt that makes too many Red Sox fans happy about his season and the team’s remaining obligation to him.

Kevin Correia – The first player on our list to have a big discrepancy between his FIP and xFIP due to a high HR rate, Correia did not show much regression in the second half of the year. Those who thought he would rebound, especially considering his home park, were disappointed. Correia allowed 13 HR in 82.1 IP in Petco this year.

Cole Hamels – Just like in 2009, one pitcher from the high HR rate side completely turned things around to become one of the best pitchers in the second half. Hopefully, Hamels has more luck in 2011 than 2009’s entry did. Rich Harden had a 5.58 ERA in 20 games with the Rangers this year after having a tremendous post-break performance (2.55 ERA) in 2009.

Nick Blackburn – Both systems would have advised cutting Blackburn, who responded with a 3.94 ERA in the second half, as he showed a big across-the-board improvement, including a microscopic 1.83 BB/9.

Kevin Millwood – Most of the players with a high HR/FB rate come back as not worth the risk by both systems. But xFIP said Millwood was significantly better than he showed in the first half and did an excellent job projecting his post-break ERA.

Jeff Karstens – An sore shoulder led to just one appearance in September. I regret the pain suffered by Mr. Karstens but it’s probably just as well that it played out that way.

Zach Duke – Hard to believe he made the All-Star team in 2009. Since then he is 11-23 with a 5.52 ERA.

James Shields – Both systems predicted a big bounce-back performance in the second half by Shields but that never materialized. He continued to give up HR by the basket, saw his K/BB ratio drop by over a full point and saw his BABIP increase to .362 after the break.

Brian Bannister – Limited to 25.2 IP in the second half due to rotator cuff tendinitis.

Randy Wolf – Both systems saw Wolf as waiver wire fodder but he had a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts, which was right after I placed him on waivers in a dynasty league.

Doug Davis – Elbow tendinitis kept Davis from pitching after the All-Star break.

Ricky Nolasco – FIP was nearly perfect with its Nolasco forecast, a marked departure in recent history, as he has generally underperformed his peripherals the past two seasons. Of course, Nolasco pitched just 47 innings after the break due to knee surgery.

Ian Kennedy – Neither system thought much of Kennedy going into the break but xFIP had a brighter outlook. Meanwhile, Kennedy put it altogether after the All-Star game, with Quality Starts in seven of his last nine outings. He finally started pitching well in his home park. In his last three games in Chase Field, Kennedy allowed 4 ER (0 HR) in 19 IP.

*****

When I started this comparison in 2009, my belief was that you would be just as well off using either system. After last year, there was a definite raw advantage for xFIP but now with two years worth of data, the two systems are basically even. Overall, there have been 72 pitchers who’ve had a 0.50 or greater difference between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break. Here’s how they did if you used their first half FIP or xFIP to project their second half ERA:

xFIP – 37
FIP – 34
Push – 1

Both systems have strengths and weaknesses. Generally speaking, xFIP does a better job with non-elite pitchers with low HR rates while FIP does a better job with elite hurlers. So, if a Tom Gorzelanny is cruising along with a sub-7.0 HR/FB rate, it appears you should look to sell high. But if it’s Justin Verlander, perhaps you should hold onto him.

We know that over the long haul that xFIP is the better metric to use for most pitchers. The issue here is that for one season (or one partial season) there may not be enough time for regression to fully kick in. Let’s look at Tim Lincecum. In the first half of 2009, he had a 3.9 HR/FB rate. In the second half of the season he had a 7.5 HR/9. This year he had a 9.9 HR/FB ratio. He has been regressing towards a normal HR/FB rate since the first half of 2009. But it did not all come in the same season.

Readers have suggested using first half ERA, or a mid-point between first half FIP and xFIP or an average of all three to see which one best predicted second half ERA. I think these are worthwhile suggestions and perhaps ones that we can use in the future (going back retroactively, too) as our sample size increases. We can also eliminate pitchers who did not pitch substantial innings and look for other trends and anomalies as our population gets bigger.

This started with a claim by my friend and colleague Derek Carty that FIP was basically useless for fantasy purposes with other metrics like xFIP available. Right now it appears FIP is making a case not to be tossed into the trash can by fantasy players.

In 2009, I did a column at the All-Star break to see if FIP or xFIP would be more helpful for fantasy players in making trades. This year I did the same thing. You can see the results below

Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP?
FIP Challenge Results Part I
FIP Challenge Results Part II
FIP Challenge 2010

Here is the table from the 2010 article, along with an additional column, the pitcher’s ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 38 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the two systems were almost identical, with the FIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA in 20 cases while xFIP did better 17 times. Furthermore, FIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 26 players with low HR/FB rates and both systems got five of the 11 pitchers (Davis being a wash) with high HR/FB rates.

In 2009, xFIP did better on a raw scale, as it did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers in the sample.

Similar to 2009, most of the pitchers fell outside the range predicted by FIP and xFIP. For example, Liriano’s FIP was 2.18 while his xFIP was 2.97. But he had a 3.31 second half ERA. Only seven of the 37 players listed above had a second half ERA between their first half FIP and xFIP. The two systems were close on this, too, with FIP being better on four of these seven pitchers. In 2009, 28 of the 34 pitchers had second half ERAs outside the range of their first half FIP and xFIP numbers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 38 pitchers in this survey.

As you’ve undoubtedly heard, Ted Lilly has decided to remain with the Dodgers for the next three seasons, signing a deal worth a reported $33 million. While the Dodgers roster may see some changes this winter, we can get a pretty good idea of how Lilly’s value has been impacted by his decision to stay in Los Angeles.

After being dealt from Chicago to L.A., Lilly performed extremely well and did his best to keep the Dodgers in the playoff picture. He struck out over a batter an inning while donning Dodger Blue (or white, or gray, or whatever) and did a great job of limiting free passes. Yet, his FIP was barely below 4.00 due to Lilly’s love for home runs.

Lilly’s always been a fly ball pitcher, never posting a GB% north of 38%. Last year in L.A. (and Chicago), his ground ball rate reached an all-time low, coming in below 30%, easily the worst mark in the league. Even though Dodger Stadium can be a pitching heaven at times, Lilly’s lack of ground balls allow his HR/FB rate to be fairly normal while giving up around 1.5 homers every nine innings.

As far as the Dodgers’ defense behind him, Los Angeles had the worst outfield defense in baseball last year, according to UZR. Some of those problems will go away with Manny out of town, but it’s clear the Dodgers’ defense isn’t going to do Lilly any favors. Maybe he knew what he was doing, going for more strikeouts and all that jazz?

Teddy will be 35 before next season begins, so he’s no spring chicken who’s looking to make strides and improve on his numbers. As a starter who’s going to give you a K/9 around 8.0 and limit walks, Lilly will have value in all leagues. He’s not going to be anything special thanks to an ERA that will likely be lackluster, but if he can rack up 13+ wins, he’s worthy of being your third starter.

During the Keeper Conundrum series, I got some nice suggestions in the comments. Today, I finish of the series by continuing to look at some of your ideas.

Ervin Santana
While he still hasn’t lived up to his 2008 break out, and likely never will, Santana has had a solid fantasy season. But, his periperals weren’t that far off from last season’s, leaving him with yet another regression year.
Crude 2011 Projection: 205 IP, 4.00 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I can guarantee you didn’t pay anything for him, so keep him on your roster next season.

Edwin Jackson
The addition of cutter upon arriving to Chicago made Jackson a second-half stud. Even though he’s been around the block, he’ll still only be 27 next year. If Jackson can continue his second-half surge, he’ll be one of the top pitchers in all of fantasy baseball next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: 210 IP, 3.70 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s going to be solid next year, and I want a piece of that action.

Brian Matusz
Matusz has always been in my doghouse, thanks to his extreme fly ball tendencies. But, he did pitch extremely well in the last two months of the year, with xFIP’s around 4.00. I’m hoping he can take a step in the right direction next year, but I’m not going to bet much on it.
Crude 2011 Projection: 190 IP, 4.00 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s very young, and pretty raw, and I want to see if he can keep performing at the level he showed late this year.

Andrew Bailey
His injury throws his status up in the air, but he did well upon his return. We only have a 132 inning sample, so we don’t know how high his BABIP should really be.
Crude 2011 Projection: 55 IP, 2.25 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. He’s probably in line for some progression, and we don’t know if the A’s are going to be any good next year.

Thanks for all the suggestions this week, hope this helped you in some way.

All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some starting pitchers.

James Shields
If you listen to xFIP, this was James Shields best season. If you ask ERA, or a majority of fans, this was his worst season. His strikeout rate was much better than his past two seasons, but it doesn’t look like he did anything to deserve it. He got smacked around this year, and even the great R.J. Anderson couldn’t really figure out why.
Crude 2011 Projection: 210 IP, 4.15 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. He’ll be undervalued next year, so prey on other owners and draft him a couple rounds later than he should go.

Josh Beckett
For all the crap the mass media and Red Sox fans are giving him, Beckett wasn’t all that bad this year. He ended with an xFIP of 4.01 in less than 130 innings. However, he did have the worst whiff rate of his career, and his worst season throwing first pitch strikes.
Crude 2011 Projection: 160 IP, 4.10 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. 160 innings isn’t worth the price you have to pay. Draft him, but don’t keep him.

Ricky Romero
I was giddy when Romero was pitching well early on, but he struggled in the second half. For the last three months, Romero failed to post a K/BB over 2, but kept his xFIP around 4.00. He was still a four win pitcher this year, and his 55% ground ball rate is great. Pitching in the AL East didn’t help things, either, and I’m willing to bet he wins 17 games in most divisions.
Crude 2011 Projection: 200 IP, 3.75 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. Odds are you got him off the waiver wire, and he’s worth that price.

Brett Cecil
Cecil had a nice April and May, but didn’t get much hype. The lefty doesn’t do anything special, and he’s a slight above-average pitcher. It was good to see him walk less batters, and his SwStr% was improved by a percentage points.
Crude 2011 Projection: 190 IP, 4.00 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He wasn’t worth much in drafts, so he’s a nice value to have in the back of your rotation.

If you have a starting pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some starting pitchers.

Colby Lewis
In his first year back in the bigs, Lewis performed very well. Lewis pitched more than 200 innings, striking out close to a batter an inning. Even though he doesn’t have overpowering stuff, he was able to make hitters miss on a consistent basis.
Crude 2011 Projection: 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s not going to be a sleeper this year, so he’s going to be a fantastic value.

Brett Anderson
Anderson doesn’t make this list because anyone is questioning his abilities, but because of the injury risk involved. He had problems with his pitching elbow multiple times this year, and pitched fewer than 115 innings because of it. His K/BB and GB% were both higher this year, so Anderson’s still got game.
Crude 2011 Projection: 150 IP, 3.20 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. Not because he’s bad, but because he should slip a couple of rounds in drafts, and you can snag him there.

Zack Greinke
Greinke’s year wasn’t 2009esque, but it was remarkably similar to 2008. He topped 200 innings for the third straight year, but his SwStr% (and thus his K/9) decreased, leaving him with less than the 200 strikeouts many were hoping for. But, he did increase his GB%, so it wasn’t all bad news.
Crude 2011 Projection: 220 IP, 3.85 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.15 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. Like Anderson, you should be able to get him a couple of rounds later in drafts. Plus, he may not get more than 10 W’s, once again, in 2011.

Ricky Nolasco
Once again, Nolasco frustrated the crap out of his owners. For the second straight year, Nolasco’s xFIP was far better then his ERA, thanks to a K/BB of 4.45. He’s homer prone, and hitters somehow have the ability to hit him around a bit. But, he’s going to do a great job giving you some strikeouts without a very high WHIP.
Crude 2011 Projection: 175 IP, 4.30 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I’d like to think he’d go a couple of rounds later, but someone will always be willing to take him a little early with the hope that he’ll finally deliver.

If you have a starting pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

After he got off to a 9-1 start with a 0.88 ERA, I asked readers to predict Ubaldo Jimenez for the rest of the season.

Jimenez ended up with 10 W, 153 Ks, a 3.83 ERA and a 1.264 WHIP. We had two people who came up with pretty good predictions for Jimenez. They were:

Elgato7664: 11 W, 138 Ks, 3.78 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Toffer Peak 10 W, 130 Ks, 3.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Vote in the comments for which one you think did better.

And I would be remiss if I did not mention that RoS ZiPS projected Jimenez for 11 wins and a 3.84 ERA, which was just about perfect. If only Jimenez had picked up a win instead of a no-decision on his last game of the year, when he pitched eight shutout innings, Dan Szymborski would have hit one out of the park.

I don’t know what the opposite of a lagger is, so we’ll go with non-laggers for the time being. Anyway, two days ago we looked at five pitchers that underperformed their peripheral stats this year, getting saddled with superficially high ERA’s for whatever reason. Now let’s look at the opposite, five guys who have put up shiny ERA without necessarily having the underlying performance to match…

Clay Buchholz | FIP: 3.63 | ERA: 2.33

Just 0.05 points behind Felix Hernandez for the ERA crown (that’s one extra earned run over 180 IP), Buchholz’s strikeout (6.22 K/9) and walk (3.47 BB/9) rates are both below the league average (7.11 and 3.28, respectively). For some perspective, there have been just 196 instances of a pitcher posting a sub-3.00 ERA with a sub-2.00 K/BB (min. 150 IP) in the expansion era, and the Red Sox righty will be just the third to do it since 1999. Just ten others have done that with an ERA as low as Buchholz’s. His .265 BABIP, 79.0% LOB%, and 5.6% HR/FB all skew towards the pitcher-friendly side of the spectrum as well. There’s no denying that Buchholz is one of the very best young pitchers in baseball, but don’t count on ERA’s that hug the 2.30 line until he starts taking matters into his own hands by striking out a few more batters.

Trevor Cahill | FIP: 4.27 | ERA: 3.08

It’s hard to believe that Cahill started the season in Triple-A considering how well he’s performed, but that’s exactly what happened. Sticking with the common theme of the post, his strikeout rate is well below the league average at 5.31, but he makes up for it with a studly 55.7% ground ball rate. The problem is that all those grounders resulted in just a .237 BABIP, the lowest among all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings this year. That doesn’t pass the sniff test. Cahill will always get some help from his ballpark (where foul pop-ups go to die) and outfield defense, but he’s unlikely to keep opponents out of the hit column that well again in the future. Another great young arm like Buchholz, but not one that you should expect to post ERA’s that threaten to dip below 3.00, at least in the immediate future.

R.A. Dickey | FIP: 3.65 | ERA: 2.86

The UCL-less wonder, Dickey has been a godsend for a Mets rotation that seems to be in perpetual flux. He’s managed to limit the free passes to just 2.13 per nine innings despite employing the knuckleball, a pitch that by definition is unpredictable in its flight path. Dickey has also managed to get a ton of ground balls (55.3%) and limit the big flies (no doubt with some help from CitiField). Fair or not, Dickey’s going to have to prove himself again next season just because he has basically no track record at this level, and also because it’s tough to buy into a knuckleballer being a sub-3.00 ERA, or even sub-3.50 ERA pitcher on a consistent basis.

Tim Hudson | FIP: 4.01 | ERA: 2.76

Remember that sub-3.00 ERA, sub-2.00 K/BB club I was talking about with Buchholz above? You can include Hudson in that group as well. His first full season after reconstructive elbow surgery has to be considered a smashing success, simply because he reverted back to the guy he had been his entire career: a ground ball generating workhorse. Hudson has never been one to strike out many batters (5.52 K/9 this year, 6.07 career), but his swinging strike rate dropped to a below league average and career worst 7.0% in 2010. He is what he is at this point, and even though a sub-3.00 ERA is always possible, I’d bet on a return to his mid-3.00’s form next year. And there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that.

Jonathan Sanchez | FIP: 4.00 | ERA: 3.15

Sanchez is a DIPS theory marvel. He can be flat out unhittable and strikeout out double digit batters, but still exit a start in the sixth inning because he’s walked the farm and one or two of the hits he did allow left the yard. His 9.56 K/9 is third best in the NL, but his 4.35 BB/9 is no better than middle of the pack. Sanchez will always benefit from his ballpark and playing in the lesser league, and the ability to get batters out all by his lonesome should help him limit big innings. Assuming the Giants shore up their defense over the winter (far from a given), Sanchez is very capable of posting low-3.00 ERA’s over the next few years despite all those extraneous walks.