Keeper Conundrums: Starting Pitchers, Part Two
All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some starting pitchers.
James Shields
If you listen to xFIP, this was James Shields best season. If you ask ERA, or a majority of fans, this was his worst season. His strikeout rate was much better than his past two seasons, but it doesn’t look like he did anything to deserve it. He got smacked around this year, and even the great R.J. Anderson couldn’t really figure out why.
Crude 2011 Projection: 210 IP, 4.15 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. He’ll be undervalued next year, so prey on other owners and draft him a couple rounds later than he should go.
Josh Beckett
For all the crap the mass media and Red Sox fans are giving him, Beckett wasn’t all that bad this year. He ended with an xFIP of 4.01 in less than 130 innings. However, he did have the worst whiff rate of his career, and his worst season throwing first pitch strikes.
Crude 2011 Projection: 160 IP, 4.10 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. 160 innings isn’t worth the price you have to pay. Draft him, but don’t keep him.
Ricky Romero
I was giddy when Romero was pitching well early on, but he struggled in the second half. For the last three months, Romero failed to post a K/BB over 2, but kept his xFIP around 4.00. He was still a four win pitcher this year, and his 55% ground ball rate is great. Pitching in the AL East didn’t help things, either, and I’m willing to bet he wins 17 games in most divisions.
Crude 2011 Projection: 200 IP, 3.75 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. Odds are you got him off the waiver wire, and he’s worth that price.
Brett Cecil
Cecil had a nice April and May, but didn’t get much hype. The lefty doesn’t do anything special, and he’s a slight above-average pitcher. It was good to see him walk less batters, and his SwStr% was improved by a percentage points.
Crude 2011 Projection: 190 IP, 4.00 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He wasn’t worth much in drafts, so he’s a nice value to have in the back of your rotation.
If you have a starting pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Edwin Jackson, I picked him up for cheap when he got traded. Do you think his second half was for real, and will he continue striking out batters at a decent clip.
Chapman in the 15th or Latos in the 16th? I know Chapman would be a big gamble, and Latos relatively safe, but I would like any outsider perspective on this.
I would go with Latos, his situation is San Diego is to good to pass up. He’s low risk and at 16th round he is a steal.
Agreed. Latos has his role clearly defined and an excellent home-field advantage built in. Chapman may bounce around if he struggles in the spring, his command deserts him, etc.
It’s too early to truly evaluate this one, but what are your thoughts on Tim Stauffer (beyond what was said today on BPro)? I have the chance to keep him for $8. So what are the odds they leave room in the rotation for him and odds he’ll be worth $15+ (that’s about the floor of value I need to bother rostering a SP in a 12 team, 1450 IP league).
Any idea what his value was this year (or what he ‘earned’) using your league scoring/setup parameters?
I could figure that for you when I get home but I’m not sure this year’s numbers even matter since they seem pretty flukey. Come to think of it, all that matters is starter or reliever. If he hits 180 IP, he should get the value I need to keep him. If he hits 80 IP again, it’s $7 wasted in a draft where I’ll need every dollar.
Daniel Hudson? I am keeping Max Scherzer and I am actually passing up keeping Carpenter. His k/9 decline this year hurt my team since it is one of our 5 pitching categories. I am keeping Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Carlos Santana, Scherzer and either Hudson or Pedro Alvarez. I’m leaning towards Alvarez since SP always seems to be available in my 12 team mixed league.
I’d honestly drop Beltre off that list. ISO spike seems to happen only in contract years for him, his BABIP was 20+ points above his norm and he turns 32 at the start of next year.
I hope people in my league drop Beltre. His ISO in 2010 was .233. He was injured and played hurt in 2009. In 2008 and 2007, his ISO on the road was .221 and .248. The reason his ISO overall was lower was because he played his home games in one of the worst parks in baseball for right-handed power hitters. something he isn’t likely to face again.
As for contract years, Beltre has earned a reputation as an extremely hard worker who will run through a wall for his team. He had one monster season in his last year with the Dodgers but a sample size of one hardly forms a pattern —- if you recognize how his production this year was largely the result of switching parks.
What about Mark Rzcpynski at $1 AL only and Derke Lowe at $5 in NL Only?
Projections on Shaun Marcum? And if you favor keeping him, who would you keep, Marcum or Nolasco?
I can keep two of the 3:
Beckett
Jhoulys Chacin
Biran Matusz
Thoughts?
Thoughts on Jaime Garcia? He was terrific this year but I worry about a sophomore slump.
14 teams, 5 keepers per… deciding b/w m. bumgarner, j. chacin and n. feliz for my last spot. each would cost me a 20th round pick. which one?