Archive for Starting Pitchers

If you are in H2H championships right now, you are probably thinking of streaming or already knee deep in probable starters as we speak. Here’s a quick run-down of the more interesting starters by day for the final weekend. Good luck!

Friday
Mark Rogers is starting against the Reds and if you need strikeouts and strikeouts alone, he’s an interesting name. He missed all of 2007 and 2008 with labrum surgeries (torn!) and yet he’s got his velocity back up to 94/95 MPH and has shown his characteristic strikeout punch again (10.06 K/9 in his minor league career). Then again, Rogers has control problems (5.67 BB/9 career in minor leagues), to put it mildly. He also saw a reduced strikeout rate (about one per inning) after the surgeries. In more shallow leagues, the strikeouts-and-strikeouts alone option is Bud Norris, but that’s living on the edge, too, despite his nice FIP (4.16).

PIcking up Pat Misch might be a misch-take but at least he doesn’t walk people (0.93 BB/9 this year, 2.53 career), and is keeping the ball on the ground this year (51.8%). The Washington lineup will also be without Ryan Zimmerman, so he’ll have less opposition. He’s probably the safest streamer Friday. Jordan Zimmermann is also safer than Rogers (most starters are), and offers more strikeout ability than Misch, but he’s been limited to about five innings per start, so his ability to get you a “W” has been adversely affected.

The Kyle Kendrick / Brandon Beachy tilt is probably best to be avoided, given Kendrick’s FIP (4.91) and Beachy’s lack of experience and the stress of the moment. If you’re going to take the dive on one of the two, try Beachy, who has always shown great control in the minor leagues (2.12 BB/9), and added strikeout punch as he advanced.

Saturday
Saturday is actually a rough day for streamers, with a lot of established pitchers taking their final turns. Chris Capuano has been pitching decently and should be fresh, but his career numbers (4.34 ERA / 1.35 WHIP) were accrued in over 700 innings and shouldn’t be ignored. He’s pretty vanilla and only struck out one dude in his last start. His opponent, Homer Bailey, offers much more in the way of strikeout ability and risk. But Bailey’s only given up more than four runs once in his past ten appearances, so maybe he’s not as risky as we think. He’s pitching as a post-season audition and has a 3.89 FIP, he’s a decent spot starter.

Tim Stauffer is flying off the shelves (14% owned now), and for good reason. He’s got a great final matchup against the Giants, and has finally regained that groundball-inducing stuff (53.7%) that made him interesting before the injuries. His FIP (2.84) and opponent makes him the best spot starter of the day. Wade Davis is also an interesting name for the day, as he has a good matchup (the Royals) and has been pitching better since the half-way mark (3.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9).

Joe Saunders and Alex Sanabia both have nice matchups (the Dodgers in LA and the Pirates in Florida, respectively), and they limit the walks (2.93 and 1.99 BB/9), but both have poor strikeout rates (5 and 5.85 K/9), so they are better options for those looking to protect ratios than those looking for the K.

Sunday
A little tip for roto players looking to get the most out of their innings limits. On Yahoo, the innings limits are enforced at the end of the day. So if you have one inning going into the final day, you can throw as many arms as you like that day and receive credit for all of them. It may not be in the spirit of the rule, but it is in the rules, and winning eases all pains. If you have little to lose in regards to your ratios, you might as well throw everyone you can that day.

That said, it’s not a great day for streaming. The shallow league prize is probably Ted Lilly, who has a nice matchup against the K-happy Diamondbacks in Los Angeles, but he’s owned in 62% of leagues and you’d have to get lucky to find him on your wire. Mike Pelfrey seems streaky and is in the midst of a decent stretch (only two starts of 3+ runs allowed in his last ten) and he gets the scrubs the Nationals want to run out on their final day in a decent matchup. He’s available about half the time, too. Randy Wolf would be a better matchup if he weren’t a flyballer going into Cincinnati, but he’s been strong this second half at least (3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and is a known quantity.

The deep league prize is probably Marc “Scrabble” Rzepczynski, who is once again striking out over eight per nine (8.1 K/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (51.7%). His walks are once again a little too high, though (4.45 BB/9 this year, 4.42 career), so as his FIP shows (4.87), he’s not without risk. Then again, it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will risk too many of their regulars on the last day, and Scrabble is coming off of a string of good starts, including his last, a gem against the Yankees. I’d rather use him than his opponent Nick Blackburn, as his groundball-inducing repertoire will be going up against a slew of Jays trying to pad career-high homer totals. Strength on strength, I’m not betting against Jose Bautista et al, at least not this year.

Otherwise, it’s a tough day. Had Brad Bergesen not blown up against the Rays, he might look like a decent start against the weaker Tigers offense, but there is that five-run start looking up at you from his game log (as well as his poor strikeout numbers (4.25 K/9) and well-deserved FIP (5.20)). Brian Burres gets an okay matchup in Florida, but he’s not a good pitcher (5.01 K/9, 4.89 FIP). If you are scraping the bottom of this barrel, you’d be better off trying Esmil Rogers, who gets to pitch in St. Louis and has shown the ability to keep the ball on the ground (50.7% career GB) and garner the strikeout (8.47 K/9 this year). Call Rogers the surprise at the bottom of the cracker jacks.

Every year a few pitchers run into particularly poor luck or get stuck with a bad defense or shoddy bullpen work and see their ERA suffer despite strong peripheral stats. It drives fantasy owners nuts because a guy is pitching well but we aren’t reaping the full benefits. With less than five days left in baseball’s regular season, here are five starting pitchers who outperformed their ERA by more than half-a-run this season…

Edwin Jackson | FIP: 3.86 | ERA: 4.51

Jackson obviously split time between each league, with his stint in Arizona representing the ugly half (well, really two-thirds). The K/9 (6.97) and BB/9 (4.02) weren’t anything special with the D-Backs, but his ERA was still almost a run greater than his FIP. The numbers improved across the board after the trade to the ChiSox (9.22 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 3.25 ERA, 3.09 FIP) despite moving to the tougher league, but more than anything he benefited from a LOB% regression. After consecutive seasons of a ~76% strand rate, it dipped to 67.1% in Arizona before rebounding to 75.6% in Chicago. I thought maybe the D-Backs horrifically bad bullpen cost him a bunch of runs, but it turns out they allowed just four of Jackson’s nine inherited runners to score (compared to three of nine with the ChiSox).

Anyway, it’s easy to forget that Jackson is just entering his prime (turned 27 this month), so his best years should be coming very soon. In fact, at 3.7 WAR, 2010 was a career year for the former Dodger. Some unfortunate luck did him in this season, but going forward an ERA right at 4.00 or even a touch below isn’t out of the question.

Brandon Morrow | FIP: 3.17 | ERA: 4.49

Shut down due to an innings limit earlier this month, Morrow’s first full season as a big league starter has been a smashing success for the Blue Jays, even if his ERA doesn’t necessarily agree. His 10.95 K/9 was by far the best by a pitcher with at least 140 IP (Yovani Gallardo and Jon Lester tied for second at 9.71), and even though his 4.06 BB/9 is a tad high, it did improve as the summer went on. A .348 BABIP is a little up there for a guy that gets swings-and-missed 11.0% of the time, and the 69.0% LOB% is a bit on the low side. Either way, there’s every reason to expect Morrow to continue to improve with experience, and he could be primed for a take-off next season.

Ricky Nolasco | FIP: 3.87 | ERA: 4.51

Nolasco was the ERA-FIP darling coming into 2010, with 2009’s 3.35 FIP being sabotaged by a 61.0% LOB% that resulted in a 5.06 ERA. His K/9 dropped more than a full strikeout to a still respectable 8.39 this year (perhaps due to decreased movement on his splitter) while his walk rate actually improved to 1.88 BB/9, though his homerun rate jumped a bit to 12.4% from 11.0% (FB% increased 1.3% to 41.1%). Nolasco’s season ended in late-August because of a knee injury, and there’s always the possibility that it was hindering his performance. He’s consistently posted stellar DIPS numbers (this year’s FIP is the worst of his career for a full season), and I’d jump right back on this horse next season. In fact, he could end up being a little undervalued on draft day.

Rick Porcello | FIP: 4.33 | ERA: 5.01

The 21-year-old wunderkind got a little taste of statistical correction this season, after enjoying a 3.96 ERA and a 4.77 FIP last year. He cut down on his walk (2.19 BB/9) and homerun rates (9.5% HR/FB) this season while maintaining a strikeout rate right around 4.6 K/9, but a BABIP jump (.306 after .281 last year) and LOB% drop-off (64.2% after 75.5%) really did him in this season. Of course the awful start to the season hurt Porcello’s numbers more than anything, but until he starts missing some more bats he’s not going to post low enough ERA’s to justify the lack of strikeouts and the unspectacular WHIP’s.

James Shields | FIP: 4.26 | ERA: 5.04

What happened to Jamie? He was Jamie all throughout his minor league career, but as soon as he got to show it was James. Meh, whatever.

Anyway, Shields caught a real bad case of homeritis in the middle of the season, allowing 19 longballs in just 77.1 IP from late-May to early-August. His strikeout rate is at an all-time high (8.44 K/9), and although his walk rate is the worst of his career, a 2.22 BB/9 is nothing to be ashamed of. I guess the concern is that his BB/9, GB%, HR/FB, BABIP, LOB%, AVG against, wFB/C, and wCB/C have all been trending in the wrong direction for a few seasons now, which is not something you want to see from a guy that’s about to complete his age-28 season. Don’t get me wrong, Shields is absolutely still a quality pitcher, but it’s not a slam dunk that he’ll return to being a very good fantasy starter in 2011.

* * *

Later this week we’ll look at the opposite, five guys who outperformed their peripherals and posted shiny ERA’s. Those are my favorite.

Edinson Volquez has had many ups and downs this season, including a steroid suspension that was ignored, a return to the bigs, a trip back to the minors, and then back into the big league rotation. Like Scherzer, Volquez’s brief minor league “tune up” did wonders for him as far as we can tell.

The last time someone talked about Volquez at this great site of baseball worship Volquez, the G-Unit said this about the Reds’ starter:

“To this point, Volquez has exhibited a power arsenal, if little idea of how to spot his wicked pitches.”

That is classic Volquez. Very good pitches, but problems putting it all together. But, he’s done a great job putting it all together recently, albeit in a very small sampling.

September
In three starts this month, Volquez has an xFIP of 2.95 thanks to more than a strikeout an inning, and a BB/9 under 3. While his strikeout rate is about right, it’s a surprise to see his BB/9 be so low, because even during his great 2008, Volquez’s control wasn’t great.

All of Volquez’s pitches have been thrown for strikes at least 60% of the time during September, with all of them getting whiffs at least 10% of the time. For good measure, he’s thrown his changeup 26% of the time, and has gotten a whiff on over 31% of occasions. That, my friends, is amazing, and probably unprecedented. Overall, he has lead the league in whiff% this month, coming in at over 16%.

Has Edinson Volquez returned to the form that made his 2008 so special? Could be, but we really don’t know. Of course, with any small sample comes the warnings (small samples may be dangerous to your health, consult a doctor if a sample lasts less than fours hours, etc.), but this has been a really good sign of things to come. He’s never going to be a pitcher with superb control, but he could be able to keep his BB/9 around 3.50 and be a very successful starter.

Volquez will likely be a key cog for in the Reds’ playoff machine, and having the opportunity to watch him pitch against good competition will be a big part in helping to determine his ADP next year. My guess is that Volquez will end up going under the radar, and could be a nice value pick in drafts as long as he doesn’t explode during the playoffs.

By now, we all know that Max Scherzer really struggled with his control during the month of May, prompting the Tigers to send him down to the minors to slightly tweak his mechanics and get him back on the right path. Everyone also knows that he had only two starts in the minors, was recalled, and has bounced back ever since. But, for me, “bounced back” isn’t a strong enough statement to describe his performance of late. Scherzer is probably one of the better stories in fantasy baseball this year, but he doesn’t seem to be getting enough credit for the clinic he’s put on in the last couple of months.

June and July
Right away, Scherzer started putting up numbers that owners (and the Tigers) had expected of him. He was striking out over a batter an inning, keeping the walks at a reasonable level, and not getting killed by the longball. These two months were nothing special (for Scherzer), but they proved that the ship may be righted for good.

August
Scherzer had some troubles keeping a high K-rate in August, but that was due more to bad luck than to diminished ability. He lowered his walk totals, and thanks to a .254 opponents BABIP, he turned in a nice and shiny 1.29 ERA.

September
This is where Scherzer has really shined. During the month of September, Scherzer has lowered his walk totals even further, but has been striking out more than a batter an inning once again. For a pitcher with a very high strikeout rate, a 4.88 K/BB is more than anyone could ask for. He has been beyond dominant lately. To prove a point, here is Scherzer’s last five starts.

9 IP, 9 K, 1 BB, 1 ER
7.1 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 4 ER
6 IP, 5 K, 1 BB, 4 ER
8 IP, 11 K, 2 BB, 2 ER
7.2 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 0 ER

Not only is Scherzer striking batters out at a high rate, but he’s also pitching deep into games, something that has become underrated in fantasy circles. In my mind, Scherzer shouldn’t fall past the fifth or sixth round next year, and should be the first Tigers’ pitcher off the board. That’s right, Max Scherzer is better than Justin Verlander, and should be treated like it.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 26. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Mark Buehrle – He has lost back-to-back starts and in his last six games Buehrle is 0-3 with a 5.92 ERA. He has two home starts this week but Buehrle has not been very good at the Cell, with a 4.95 ERA. Put the veteran on your bench this week.

Mike Pelfrey – Citi Field has been very, very good to Pelfrey this season. In road parks, he is 5-6 with a 4.95 ERA. But in his home park, Pelfrey is 10-3 with a 2.87 ERA. In his last five home starts he is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA. In his last five road starts Pelfrey is 1-3 with a 4.76 ERA. He has two home starts this week so get him in your lineup.

Jonathan Sanchez – In his last seven games, Sanchez is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA. During that stretch, he has allowed 17 BB in 45 IP, compared to a 4.29 BB/9 ratio for the entire season. Sanchez faces division opponents Arizona and San Diego this week. He has pitched well against those two teams, with a combined 2.40 ERA in seven games. Get Sanchez in your lineup this week.

C.J. Wilson – Although he has lost his last two decisions, Wilson has been pitching just as well down the stretch as he has most of the season. In his last eight games he is 6-2 with a 2.75 ERA, with 53 Ks in 52.1 IP. Wilson has two home starts this season and while he has a slightly higher ERA in Arlington, he has a 10-2 record in his home park. Make sure Wilson is in your lineup.

Carlos Zambrano – In his last start, Zambrano pitched six shutout innings but came away with a no-decision, which ended a five-start winning streak. Since returning to the rotation, Zambrano is 6-0 with a 1.42 ERA in nine games. His walk rate in this stretch (33 BB in 57 IP) is troubling, but Zambrano has survived thanks to allowing just 1 HR in 57 IP. This week he faces San Diego and Houston. The Astros are last in the NL with 405 walks, nearly 200 behind the league-leading Braves. Houston is also last in the league in HR (105), while San Diego ranks 12th in the 16-team league. Look for Zambrano’s strong pitching to continue and get him active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 26 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Halladay, Jimenez, F. Hernandez, Price, Lee, Buchholz, Haren, E. Santana, Scherzer, Latos, Hanson, W. Rodriguez, E. Jackson, Lackey, B. Anderson, Lilly, Burnett, A. Sanchez, Davis, Slowey, Niese, Volquez, Braden, Matusz, Minor, Galarraga, Stauffer, Carrasco, Sanabia, Francis, Bush, Lohse, Millwood, Drabek, Davies, R. Lopez, Rzepczynski, Pauley, O’Sullivan, Burres, Morton.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 24 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. W, 3.00 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (2 starts)
Enright – Advised to start. 14.85 ERA, K, 2.855 WHIP (2)
Garland – Advised to sit. W, 3.86 ERA, 10 Ks, 0.857 WHIP (2)
Hudson – Advised to start. W, 0.63 ERA, 14 Ks, 0.698 WHIP (2)
Narveson – Advised to start. 5.91 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.500 WHIP (2)

Both Jonathon Niese and Madison Bumgarner are young lefties having solid seasons, and are going to be kept in a number of leagues. But, what if you have both and have to pick one over the other? We need to examine both Niese and Bumgarner and decide who will be a better player next year, and a couple of years down the road.

Numbers
Niese and Bumgarner’s numbers are nothing spectacular, but when you combine all of their peripherals together, you get a solid pitcher. Niese has a strikeout rate north of 7.5 K/9, with Bumgarner unable to reach the 6.5 mark. Since his strikeout rate is lower, Bumgarner’s walk rate needs to be lower, which it is. Bumgarner walks about two batter every nine innings, while Niese walks about three. This means that Bumgarner’s K/BB is significantly better, coming in around three, while Niese isn’t even at 2.5. That’s Bumgarner’s biggest, and possibly only advantage. Both get enough ground balls to keep me off their case, and Niese’s 47% isn’t leaps and bounds better than Bumgarner’s 45%. Both have FIP’s and xFIP’s close to 4.00, so it’s hard to get a read on who could be better based on the pure numbers. This is where a tool like pitch f/x comes in handy.

Arsenal
Guess what? Their arsenal’s are pretty similar, too. Even with all of the talk about Bumgarner’s velocity, his fastball is hovering around 91 mph this year, and that includes his two-seamer. Niese sits in the 89-90 range, and doesn’t throw his fastball for strikes as often as Bumgarner. Niese also throws a nice slutter, and that is his only pitch with a positive run value. He does a great job of controlling it and getting whiffs, so that shouldn’t be a shock. None of Bumgarner’s secondary offerings are anything special, but he does a good job of throwing them all for strikes. However, Niese has great movement on his curveball, and while it’s whiff% is nothing to write home about (although maybe I just did?), it could be special if he can do a better job of controlling it.

Conclusion
Bumgarner is only 20, while Niese is already the ripe old age of 23. They both have the same physical build, but they use it in different ways. Since I have to pick one, I’d take Niese over Bumgarner because I think he can learn to control himself and lower his walks while upping his K’s, and I don’t know if Bumgarner will ever become more of a strikeout pitcher. If you can, grab both, but I’d rather have Niese.

When the Arizona Diamondbacks received Daniel Hudson from the White Sox in exchange for Edwin Jackson, there were questions about Daniel Hudson major league future, namely about his potential. We knew what he could do in the minors, but needed an extended major league stint to truly value his long-term value.

From a less nerdy, and more scouty perspective, Hudson has a very low arm-angle when he pitches, especially for someone who stands 6’4”. While it’s not what I would recommend, it could be one of the reasons he fools hitters. His fastball sits at 92 mph, and he compliments it with a changeup that has some nice arm-side run. In fact, if he qualified, it would be the best change in baseball, thanks to a nice 26% whiff rate.

One of the biggest concerns surrounding Hudson was his extreme fly ball tendencies. While his tiny GB% will help his BABIP thanks to Arizona’s impressive outfield defense, it will lead to allowing more homers, a problem that while manageable, could be a big deal because of where he plays.

It really doesn’t matter what you look at, Hudson has been fantastic this year. He’s striking out almost a batter an inning, limiting the walks, and going deep into games. Sure, he’s had some luck on his side, but you can’t ask for much more from a pitchers who only 23. But we still haven’t answered the essential question: What’s his potential, and what’s his keeper value?

Like I said in Friday’s chat, I don’t think Hudson can be an Ace. However, he can be a good number two or three starter on a good team, and he’s a guy you will want pitching in the playoffs. While he’ll never have an ERA as low as it is now, he could easily win 12-15 games with an ERA under 3.50 as early as next season. Because he wasn’t drafted early this year, he has fantastic keeper value going into next year. He won’t be cheap in drafts, but if you already have him on your roster, keep him there as long as possible.

Rotation updates from around the league for those of you still battling it out in the playoffs…

Jair Jurrjens | Braves | 63% owned

Jurrjens will miss his scheduled start tonight against the Phillies because of a knee issue that will require at least an MRI, and will be replaced by rookie righthander Brandon Beachy. I plan on looking at Beachy a little more tomorrow, but grabbing him for the start tonight is probably a bad idea. A rookie in Philly in the middle of a pennant race against Cole Hamels? Eh, might be better to pass on that.

Andy Pettitte | Yankees | 76% owned

Out since mid-July due to a groin injury, Pettitte returned yesterday and didn’t miss a beat. He limited the Orioles to one run through six innings, exiting the game only because he was on an 80 pitch count. The Yankee bullpen blew his win, but that’s part of life. Pettitte should make two more starts this season before the playoffs, one at home against the Red Sox and one on the road against the Blue Jays. Considering how well he’s pitched this year (2.81 ERA, 3.90 FIP), start start start.

Joel Pineiro | Angels | 18%

Like Pettitte, Pineiro returned to his team’s rotation this weekend to perform admirably: two runs in six innings against the Rays. Out since late-June because of an oblique issue, Pineiro’s extreme strike-throwing and groundball approach limits his fantasy value because he is a bit hittable (and by extension, certain prone to allowing plenty of runs) and doesn’t strike anyone out. However, Pineiro’s a good play because his final two starts come against the White Sox and Athletics, hardly offensive powerhouses.

Chris Young | Padres | 10%

The 6-foot-10 righthander finally returned to San Diego’s rotation this weekend, more than five months after his first (and only other) start of the season. Young allowed one run in just four innings of work against the Cardinals on Saturday, and it appears that his days as a low-to-mid-3.00’s ERA guy are behind him. The fastball is closer to 85 than 90 and his walk rate continues to go up, and he’s always been an extreme flyball pitcher in part due to his height. Young is a complete unknown at this point, and his last two starts comes against the Reds and Cubs at Petco. Start him at your own risk.

Quick Notes: The Mariners have hinted at limiting Felix Hernandez’s workload the rest of the way, which could mean skipping his final start, scheduled for the last day of the season … Jaime Garcia will have his start skipped on Thursday, the second straight time the team will sit him in an effort to control his workload. Even if comes back to make another start at some point, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be effective given the layoff … Jason Hammel is battling a cold and what he calls a “dead arm,” but right now the team plans on having him make his next start on Saturday.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 25. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Gavin Floyd – Perhaps no pitcher in baseball this year has been more Jekyl and Hyde than Floyd. In his last seven starts he had back-to-back starts where he gave up 13 and 11 runs bookend three straight Quality Starts. While going either way with him seems a risky proposition, I think he should be on the bench this week with two road starts, including one in Anaheim versus Jered Weaver.

Gio Gonzalez – Home has been good to Gonzalez this season as he has an 8-3 mark with a 2.70 ERA in Oakland. He got roughed up in his last start in Kansas City but prior to that had ripped off seven straight Quality Starts. With two home games this week, get Gonzalez in your lineup.

Philip Hughes – In his last five games, Hughes is 1-3 with a 6.85 ERA. Since the All-Star break Hughes is 5-6 with a 5.37 ERA. While the 16 Wins look nice, Hughes has not been a particularly good pitcher for over two months now. Hughes does get two home starts this week but they are against the Rays and Red Sox. The Yankees have scored a ton of runs for Hughes this season, an average of 6.79, so the possibility for a Win is certainly there. But the rest of the numbers could be very ugly. Unless you are desperate for Wins, give Hughes a seat on the bench.

Mike Pelfrey – Hughes and Pelfrey have been linked quite often this season as young pitchers with big win totals for the two New York clubs. While Hughes has benefitted from great run support, Pelfrey has received a big boost from his home park. In Citi Field this year he is 10-3 with a 2.87 ERA. But in road games Pelfrey is 5-6 with a 5.30 ERA. This week he has road games in Florida and Philadelphia so give him a spot on the bench.

Jake Westbrook – In nine games since joining the Cardinals Westbrook has just a 2-3 record. But he has hurled a Quality Start in eight of those nine games and in his last outing threw eight shutout innings. This week he squares off against Pittsburgh and Chicago, two teams that are a combined 60 games below .500 on the year. Owned in just over half of CBS Sports leagues, Westbrook is a potential waiver wire option in your league. Pick him up if he is available and start him if he is already on your roster.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 25 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Weaver, Carpenter, Hamels, Cain, Greinke, Garza, Billingsley, Cahill, Jurrjens, de la Rosa, Shields, Happ, Lewis, Richard, Matsuzaka, Carmona, L. Hernandez, Norris, Porcello, Bailey, Saunders, Holland, Nova, Volstad, Capuano, Bush, Maholm, J. Gomez, Chen, French, Mendez.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 23 pitchers and how they fared.

B. Anderson – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.84 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.023 WHIP (2 starts)
Gallardo – Advised to sit. W, 1.29 ERA, 10 Ks, 0.929 WHIP (2)
Jackson – Advised to start. 7.30 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.946 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. 4.50 ERA, 16 Ks, 1.214 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to sit. 4.77 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.500 WHIP (2)

Chris Sale, White Sox (Owned in 8% of Yahoo leagues)

Bobby Jenks‘ return from a right forearm injury has slowed, opening the door for Sale to snag saves in September. The 6-5, 170 pound beanpole with a low three-quarters delivery threw all of 10.1 innings in the minors after Chicago took him in the first round this past summer, but he’s impressing in the show with premium velocity from the left side.

Sale, slinging his fastball at an average of 96.2 MPH while mixing in low-80’s sliders and upper-80’s changeups, has struck out 23 batters in 17.2 IP. While he has issued 10 walks to go with all those K’s, the Florida Gulf Coast product has a 3.19 xFIP in a tiny sample. White Sox GM Kenny Williams has said that Sale will enter 2011 as a starter, but he’s certainly worth a roster spot closing out games for the South Siders in the meantime.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants (29%)

Bumgarner became a prospect darling on the basis of a mid-90’s fastball that singed batters in the low minors, but panic ensued last season when the 6-4 lefty’s velocity dropped into the upper-80’s. In 2010, Bumgarner has assuaged concerns that he was hurt or destined to fall well short of the expectations that helped him rank as a top-15 farm talent (according to Baseball America) over the past two years.

Still just 21, Bumgarner pitched decently at Triple-A Fresno (82.2 IP, 6.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 4.31 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP, per Minor League Splits). Since being recalled to the majors in late June, he has whiffed 6.36 batters per nine innings, handed out 2.18 BB/9 and has a 4.22 xFIP. Bumgarner hasn’t blown hitters away, with an 84.1% contact rate that’s four percentage points above the big league average, but he is getting hitting his spots. He’s getting a first pitch strike 60% of the time (58.9% MLB average), and has placed 48.4% of his pitches over the plate (46.6% MLB average).

Though Bumgarner was once seen as an unrefined arm with heat and rudimentary secondary stuff, he has made use of all four of his pitches. He’s throwing his fastball about 57%, a mid-80’s slider 20%, a mid-70’s curve 12% and a low-80’s change 11%. Bumgarner’s not getting a ton of whiffs — his fastball has been whiffed at 6% of the time that it has been tossed (about average). His slider has an 8.6% whiff rate (13% MLB average) and his changeup comes in at 10.2% (12.1% MLB average). That leaves his curve (11.9 whiff%, 10.5% MLB average) as the only pitch with an above-average whiff rate.

However, he’s showing sharp control of all his offerings. Bumgarner has thrown his fastball for a strike 67% of the time (60-64% MLB average), 65.1% for his slider (62.7% MLB average), 61.9% for his curve (58% MLB average) and 67.5% for the change of pace (60.9% MLB average).

It’s also worth noting that Bumgarner’s fastball velocity has been on the rise. He sat 89.7 MPH in June, 90.5 MPH in July, 91.6 MPH in August and is averaging 92.8 MPH so far in September. Bumgarner is pretty good right now, but there’s more upside here if he starts flirting with those 2008 radar gun readings.